Determinantes da recuperação do emprego formal no Brasil: evidências para o período 2001/2005 e hipoteses para uma agenda de pesquisa

Decisive factors affecting the recent increase in formal employment in Brazil. This paper gives a general overview of the evolution of labour market indicators between 1995 and 2005 in Brazil. It shows an overall increase in formal employment rates from 2001 to 2005, as opposite to what had happened from 1995 to 1999. It is argued that such recent trends might indicate the reconfiguration of the labour market in better terms, with potential positive consequences to the finance performance of the Social Security sector. The paper also examines some of the major factors associated with this new trend and their chances to maintain such tendency in the near future. It's important to notice that all of them may be subject to some kind of political management by the State. In other words, we suggest that there are suficient instruments and operative skills in the Brazilian State to make these and others factors work in favour of a more persistent strategy of development with social inclusion through labour.

Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.

Os efeitos das políticas industriais para o setor de produtos eletrônicos do Brasil

The effect of industrial policies on the electronic sector in Brazil. Brazil's reputation in vertical industrial policies is dreadful. The electronics industry case is a good example. As measured by the performance of Brazil's exports vis-à-vis that of a group of emerging economies, the result of these policies was a total disaster. Had not been for the inadequacy of Brazil's industrial policies for this sector, exports of manufactures could have been between 36% and 46% higher than they actually were. Brazil's cumulated losses from 1984, when foreign microcomputer firms were prohibited to operate in the country, are estimated to be from 3.6 to 4.6 the country's manufactures export revenue in 2005.

Crescimento econômico e liquidez externa no Brasil após 1970

Economic growth and foreign liquidity in Brazil after 1970. This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)'s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow.

Persistência inflacionária e curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana para o Brasil

Inflation persistence and new Keynesian Phillips curves for Brazil. In this paper is shown that sustainable inflation persistence has theoretical support not only due price indexation, but also because of micro-foundations based on assumptions of Simon's bounded rationality and because of persistent mark-up shocks. the new keynesian phillips curve, estimated for brazil for the period 2000/2008, and the partial coefficients of determination for moving sub-periods of 36 months identifies inflation persistence as the main determinant of inflation, with the capacity gap presenting larger importance only in the end of the sample period. Inflation persistence requires harder monetary policy when neither accommodation is acceptable nor complementary policies in order to reduce it, such as the minimization of indexation mechanisms and control of the market power, are adopted.

O ritmo na queda da desigualdade no Brasil é aceitável?

The rhythm in the fall of inequality in Brazil is acceptable? Evidences of the historical and international context. The following study uses two approaches to answer the question of whether inequality in Brazil is falling fast enough. The first is to compare the variation of the Gini coefficient in Brazil with what was observed in several countries that today belong to the OCDE (United Kingdom, United States, Netherlands, Sweden, France, Norway, and Spain) while these same countries built their social welfare systems during the last century. The second approach is to calculate for how much Brazil must keep up the fall in the Gini coefficient to attain the same levels of inequality of three OCDE countries that can be used as a reference: Mexico, the United States, and Canada. The data indicate that the Gini coefficient in Brazil is falling 0.7 point per year and that this is superior to the rhythm of all the OCDE countries analyzed while they built their welfare systems but Spain, whose Gini fell 0.9 point per year during the 1950s. The time needed to attain various benchmarks in inequality are: 6 years to Mexico, 12 to the United States and 24 to Canadian inequality levels. The general conclusion is that the speed with which inequality is falling is adequate, but the challenge will be to keep inequality falling at the same rate for another two or three decades.

Fluxo de empregos, fluxo de trabalhadores e fluxo de postos de trabalho no Brasil

Job flows, workers flows and employment flows in Brazil. The labor market is in constant flux. When measuring labor market mobility, it is usual to estimate labor market flow statistics, such as worker reallocation and job reallocation. The goal of this paper is to present previously unknown within plant job reallocation statistics for Brazil. The within plant job reallocation is measured as changes in the occupational mix of the plant. The within plant job reallocation allows a decomposition of worker turnover decomposition into matching, technological change and labor demand factors. Using formal labor market data for Brazil, from 1996 to 2001, our results suggest that technological change accounted for a limited share of worker turnover. More than a quarter of worker turnover can be attributed to labor demand shifts and more than 50% of worker turnover is due to matching.

Situando o desenvolvimento rural no Brasil: o contexto e as questões em debate

Addressing rural development discussions in Brazil: context and issues of debate. The work analyzes the main theoretical trends and subjects that integrate the recent Brazilian debate about rural development. We agued that the agenda of the rural development in Brazil, on which actively participate scholars, organizations and institutions, have been formulated by the State and the public politics implemented since the beginning of the 1990. Among the factors that had influenced the emergency of the debate about rural development is distinguished the increasing social and political legitimating of family farming and the agrarian reform, the reorientation of the state policies, the increasing sharply political and ideological quarrels with the agribusiness wing and the matters about sustainability. It is also argued that the analytical and interpretative references that have being used by the scholars are still diffuse and varied, but has been capable to influence the policy makers.

Infraestrutura e produtividade no Brasil

Infrastructure and productivity in Brazil. This article analyses the relationship between infrastructure and total factor productivity (TFP) in Brazil during the second half of the twenty century. Public capital is used as a proxy for infrastructure capital. The hypothesis to be tested is that an increase in infrastructure - more than than a rise in the private capital stock - has a positive effect on productivity on the long run. In that sense, it was used the Johansen methodology for testing the cointegration between TFP and the public/private capital ratio. In fact, it was found that this complementary relation (public-private) helps in explanning TFP's path from 1950 to 2000. The results were robust to different measures of productivity and the public/private ratio. In addition, the short (medium) run analysis has indicated that shocks in this ratio have a significant effect over the TFP, but the opposite is not true. Therefore, the cuts in infrastructure investment could be a possible explanation for the TFP's fall during the 70's and 80's.

Crescimento e industrialização no Brasil: uma interpretação à luz das propostas de Kaldor

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector.

Ajuste fiscal no Brasil: algumas considerações de caráter pós-keynesian

Fiscal adjustment in Brazil: Some considerations under a post Keynesian approach. The article analyses the main issues concerned to fiscal policy in Brazil. For doing so, it assumes a Post Keynesian approach on this issue. First, it observes the origins of the Brazilian fiscal crises, showing that the Brazilian external debt had a fundamental role to play in its configuration. After, it analyses the present conduction of the fiscal policy in Brazil, emphasizing the orthodox framework that support it. Finally, the Post Keynesian approach on fiscal policy and the role of the State, as an element essential to reach a greater economic stability is discussed, showing that there are several experiences that seems to have a Keynesian bias, but that has little relation to Keynes approach, as is the case of Brazil.