PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF CHRONIC CHAGAS CARDIOMYOPATHY IN PATIENTS WITHOUT LEFT VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION

The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.

Forest structure of artificial islands in the Tucuruí dam reservoir in northern Brazil: a test core-area model

Construction of hydroelectric dams in tropical regions has been contributing significantly to forest fragmentation. Alterations at edges of forest fragments impact plant communities that suffer increases in tree damage and dead, and decreases in seedling recruitment. This study aimed to test the core-area model in a fragmented landscape caused by construction of a hydroelectric power plant in the Brazilian Amazon. We studied variations in forest structure between the margin and interiors of 17 islands of 8-100 hectares in the Tucuruí dam reservoir, in two plots (30 and >100m from the margin) per island. Mean tree density, basal area, seedling density and forest cover did not significantly differ between marginal and interior island plots. Also, no significant differences were found in liana density, dead tree or damage for margin and interior plots. The peculiar topographic conditions associated with the matrix habitat and shapes of the island seem to extend edge effects to the islands' centers independently of the island size, giving the interior similar physical microclimatic conditions as at the edges. We propose a protocol for assessing the ecological impacts of edge effects in fragments of natural habitat surrounded by induced (artificial) edges. The protocol involves three steps: (1) identification of focal taxa of particular conservation or management interest, (2) measurement of an "edge function" that describes the response of these taxa to induced edges, and (3) use of a "Core-Area Model" to extrapolate edge function parameters to existing or novel situations.

Copper toxicity for Scinax ruber and Rhinella granulosa (Amphibia: Anura) of the Amazon: Potential of Biotic Ligand Model to predict toxicity in urban streams

In the last years many populations of anurans have declined and extinctions have been recorded. They were related to environmental pollution, changes of land use and emerging diseases. The main objective of this study was to determine copper sensitivity of the anuran of the Amazon Rhinella granulosa and Scinax ruber tadpoles at stage 25 and Scinax ruber eggs exposed for 96 h to copper concentrations ranging from 15 µg Cu L-1 to 94 µg Cu L-1. LC50 at 96 h of Rhinella granulosa Gosner 25, Scinax ruber Gosner 25 and Scinax ruber eggs in black water of the Amazon were 23.48, 36.37 and 50.02 µg Cu L-1, respectively. The Biotic Ligand Model was used to predict the LC50 values for these species and it can be considered a promising tool for these tropical species and water conditions. Copper toxicity depends on water physical-chemical composition and on the larval stage of the tadpoles. The Gosner stage 19-21 (related to the appearance of external gills) is the most vulnerable and the egg stage is the most resistant. In case of contamination by copper, the natural streams must have special attention, since copper is more bioavailable.

Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

A theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin Cry 11Bb toxin deduced by homology modelling

Cry11Bb is an insecticidal crystal protein produced by Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin during its stationary phase; this ¶-endotoxin is active against dipteran insects and has great potential for mosquito borne disease control. Here, we report the first theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of a Cry11 toxin. The tridimensional structure of the Cry11Bb toxin was obtained by homology modelling on the structures of the Cry1Aa and Cry3Aa toxins. In this work we give a brief description of our model and hypothesize the residues of the Cry11Bb toxin that could be important in receptor recognition and pore formation. This model will serve as a starting point for the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to the improvement of toxicity, and to provide a new tool for the elucidation of the mechanism of action of these mosquitocidal proteins.

Evaluation of respiratory model employing conventional NIH mice to access the immunity induced by cellular and acellular pertussis vaccines

The increasing number of pertussis cases reported on the last twenty years and the existence of new acellular vaccines reinforce the need of research for experimental models to assure the quality of available pertussis vaccines. In this study, allotments of whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines were tested through the Intranasal Challenge Model (INM) using conventional NIH mice. The results have been compared to those achieved by the "Gold standard" Intracerebral Challenge Model (ICM). In contrast to ICM, INM results did not show intralaboratorial variations. Statistical analysis by Anova and Ancova tests revealed that the INM presented reproducibility and allowed identification and separation of different products, including three-component and four-component accellular pertussis vaccines. INM revealed differences between pertussis vaccines. INM provides lower distress to the mice allowing the reduction of mice number including the possibility of using conventional mice (less expensive) under non-aseptic environment. Thus, INM may be used as an alternative method of verifying the consistence of allotment production, including acellular pertussis vaccines.

Designs and model effects definitions in the initial stage of a plant breeding program

The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

Sensibility analysis of the pearl model for pesticide leaching in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

For an accurate use of pesticide leaching models it is necessary to assess the sensitivity of input parameters. The aim of this work was to carry out sensitivity analysis of the pesticide leaching model PEARL for contrasting soil types of Dourados river watershed in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Sensitivity analysis was done by carrying out many simulations with different input parameters and calculating their influence on the output values. The approach used was called one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis, which consists in varying independently input parameters one at a time and keeping all others constant with the standard scenario. Sensitivity analysis was automated using SESAN tool that was linked to the PEARL model. Results have shown that only soil characteristics influenced the simulated water flux resulting in none variation of this variable for scenarios with different pesticides and same soil. All input parameters that showed the greatest sensitivity with regard to leached pesticide are related to soil and pesticide properties. Sensitivity of all input parameters was scenario dependent, confirming the need of using more than one standard scenario for sensitivity analysis of pesticide leaching models.

Multiple scales analysis of nonlinear oscillations of a portal frame foundation for several machines

An analytical study of the nonlinear vibrations of a multiple machines portal frame foundation is presented. Two unbalanced rotating machines are considered, none of them resonant with the lower natural frequencies of the supporting structure. Their combined frequencies is set in such a way as to excite, due to nonlinear behavior of the frame, either the first anti-symmetrical mode (sway) or the first symmetrical mode. The physical and geometrical characteristics of the frame are chosen to tune the natural frequencies of these two modes into a 1:2 internal resonance. The problem is reduced to a two degrees of freedom model and its nonlinear equations of motions are derived via a Lagrangian approach. Asymptotic perturbation solutions of these equations are obtained via the Multiple Scales Method.

A Design Methodology for the Compensation of Positioning Deviation in Gantry Manipulators

This work presents recent results concerning a design methodology used to estimate the positioning deviation for a gantry (Cartesian) manipulator, related mainly to structural elastic deformation of components during operational conditions. The case-study manipulator is classified as gantry type and its basic dimensions are 1,53m x 0,97m x 1,38m. The dimensions used for the calculation of effective workspace due to end-effector path displacement are: 1m x 0,5m x 0,5m. The manipulator is composed by four basic modules defined as module X, module Y, module Z and terminal arm, where is connected the end-effector. Each module controlled axis performs a linear-parabolic positioning movement. The planning path algorithm has the maximum velocity and the total distance as input parameters for a given task. The acceleration and deceleration times are the same. Denavit-Hartemberg parameterization method is used in the manipulator kinematics model. The gantry manipulator can be modeled as four rigid bodies with three degrees-of-freedom in translational movements, connected as an open kinematics chain. Dynamic analysis were performed considering inertial parameters specification such as component mass, inertia and center of gravity position of each module. These parameters are essential for a correct manipulator dynamic modelling, due to multiple possibilities of motion and manipulation of objects with different masses. The dynamic analysis consists of a mathematical modelling of the static and dynamic interactions among the modules. The computation of the structural deformations uses the finite element method (FEM).

Neuroethologic differences in sleep deprivation induced by the single- and multiple-platform methods

It has been proposed that the multiple-platform method (MP) for desynchronized sleep (DS) deprivation eliminates the stress induced by social isolation and by the restriction of locomotion in the single-platform (SP) method. MP, however, induces a higher increase in plasma corticosterone and ACTH levels than SP. Since deprivation is of heuristic value to identify the functional role of this state of sleep, the objective of the present study was to determine the behavioral differences exhibited by rats during sleep deprivation induced by these two methods. All behavioral patterns exhibited by a group of 7 albino male Wistar rats submitted to 4 days of sleep deprivation by the MP method (15 platforms, spaced 150 mm apart) and by 7 other rats submitted to sleep deprivation by the SP method were recorded in order to elaborate an ethogram. The behavioral patterns were quantitated in 10 replications by naive observers using other groups of 7 rats each submitted to the same deprivation schedule. Each quantification session lasted 35 min and the behavioral patterns presented by each rat over a period of 5 min were counted. The results obtained were: a) rats submitted to the MP method changed platforms at a mean rate of 2.62 ± 1.17 platforms h-1 animal-1; b) the number of episodes of noninteractive waking patterns for the MP animals was significantly higher than that for SP animals (1077 vs 768); c) additional episodes of waking patterns (26.9 ± 18.9 episodes/session) were promoted by social interaction in MP animals; d) the cumulative number of sleep episodes observed in the MP test (311) was significantly lower (chi-square test, 1 d.f., P<0.05) than that observed in the SP test (534); e) rats submitted to the MP test did not show the well-known increase in ambulatory activity observed after the end of the SP test; f) comparison of 6 MP and 6 SP rats showed a significantly shorter latency to the onset of DS in MP rats (7.8 ± 4.3 and 29.0 ± 25.0 min, respectively; Student t-test, P<0.05). We conclude that the social interaction occurring in the MP test generates additional stress since it increases the time of forced wakefulness and reduces the time of rest promoted by synchronized sleep.

Patient and physician evaluation of the severity of acute asthma exacerbations

We studied the ability of patients not experienced in the use of peak expiratory flow meters to assess the severity of their asthma exacerbations and compared it to the assessment of experienced clinicians. We also evaluated which data of physical examination and medical history are used by physicians to subjectively evaluate the severity of asthma attacks. Fifty-seven adult patients (15 men and 42 women, with a mean (± SD) age of 37.3 ± 14.5 years and 24.0 ± 17.9 years of asthma symptoms) with asthma exacerbations were evaluated in a University Hospital Emergency Department. Patients and physicians independently evaluated the severity of the asthma attack using a linear scale. Patient score, physician score and forced expiratory volume at the first second (FEV1) were correlated with history and physical examination variables, and were also considered as dependent variables in multiple linear regression models. FEV1 correlated significantly with the physician score (rho = 0.42, P = 0.001), but not with patient score (rho = 0.03; P = 0.77). Use of neck accessory muscles, expiratory time and wheezing intensity were the explanatory variables in the FEV1 regression model and were also present in the physician score model. We conclude that physicians evaluate asthma exacerbation severity better than patients and that physician's scoring of asthma severity correlated significantly with objective measures of airway obstruction (FEV1). Some variables (the use of neck accessory muscles, expiratory time and wheezing intensity) persisted as explanatory variables in physician score and FEV1 regression models, and should be emphasized in medical schools and emergency settings.

Multiple facets of HIV-associated renal disease

HIV infection has a broad spectrum of renal manifestations. This study examined the clinical and histological manifestations of HIV-associated renal disease, and predictors of renal outcomes. Sixty-one (64% male, mean age 45 years) HIV patients were retrospectively evaluated. Clinical presentation and renal histopathology were assessed, as well as CD4 T-cell count and viral load. The predictive value of histological lesion, baseline CD4 cell count and viral load for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death were determined using the Cox regression model. The outcomes of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and ESRD or death were evaluated by baseline CD4 cell count. The percent distribution at initial clinical presentation was non-nephrotic proteinuria (54%), acute kidney injury (28%), nephrotic syndrome (23%), and chronic kidney disease (22%). Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (28%), mainly the collapsing form (HIVAN), acute interstitial nephritis (AIN) (26%), and immune complex-mediated glomerulonephritis (ICGN) (25%) were the predominant renal histology. Baseline CD4 cell count ≥200 cells/mm3 was a protective factor against CKD (hazard ratio=0.997; 95%CI=0.994-0.999; P=0.012). At last follow-up, 64% of patients with baseline CD4 ≥200 cells/mm3 had eGFR >60 mL·min-1·(1.73 m2)-1 compared to the other 35% of patients who presented with CD4 <200 cells/mm3 (log rank=9.043, P=0.003). In conclusion, the main histological lesion of HIV-associated renal disease was HIVAN, followed by AIN and ICGN. These findings reinforce the need to biopsy HIV patients with kidney impairment and/or proteinuria. Baseline CD4 cell count ≥200 cells/mm3 was associated with better renal function after 2 years of follow-up.