199 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction
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Seventy four asthmatic children aged 7 to 11 years were examined along with controls matched by age and sex. Clinical and laboratory investigations preceded a 28-day follow-up where data about morning and evening peak expiratory flow rate (PEF), symptoms and treatment were recorded. The coefficient of variation of PEF was found to be an objective measurement of asthma severity that has statistically significant correlation with both symptoms (r s= .36) and treatment (r s= .60). Moreover, it separates mild and severe asthmatics, as confirmed by statistically significant differences (p= .008 or less) in symptoms, treatment, skin allergy and airways response to exercise. Skin allergy and airways responsiveness to exercise were found to be predictors of both disease and severity. By means of logistic regression analysis it was possible to establish the probabilities for both asthma and severe asthma when children presenting and not presenting these characteristics are compared. One single positive skin test represent a probability of 88% for the development of asthma and a probability of 70% for severe disease. A PEF reduction of 10% after an exercise test implies a probability of 73% for disease and a probability of 64% for severe disease. Increases in these variables imply geometrically increased risks and their presence together have a multiplicative effect in the final risk.
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Com o objetivo de avaliar a real situação do Registro Civil, no Município de Maringá, PR, Brasil, foram estudados 4.876 nascimentos vivos ocorridos nos seus hospitais, em 1989, filhos de mulheres nele residentes. São apresentadas as etapas que permitiram identificar, dentre a população de estudo, os nascimentos registrados (mesclagem de dois arquivos). A estimativa máxima da taxa de sub-registro, no primeiro ano de vida, foi igual a 9,1%, variando segundo idade da mãe (quanto mais jovem, maior a taxa), situação previdenciária (indigentes com a maior estimativa) e paridade (primíparas, menor valor), permitindo aventar a hipótese de associação entre sub-registro e piores níveis socioeconômicos.
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OBJECTIVE: To review the estimated suicide rates for the Region Metropolitan, the main socio-political center in Chile, for the period 1979-1994, and to determine whether they follow a seasonal pattern. METHOD: Data available for the period 1979-94 at the Forensic Services in Chile was analyzed using ANOVA. RESULTS: It was register 5.386 suicides. While the "warm" months (October, November, December & January) concentrated 39.0% of cases, the so called "cold" months reported 28,7%. This contrast is made even clearer by the month-to-month analysis, showing the highest suicide rate in December (10.9%) against the lowest rate in June (7.0%). Further statistical analysis revealed these differences to be significant. CONCLUSION: The study shows that in Chile, representing as it does the Southern Hemisphere, the suicide rates tend to present a seasonal variation as has elsewhere been determined for in the North Hemisphere.
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OBJETIVO: Estimar o número de acidentes do trabalho ocorridos em determinada localidade e intervalo de tempo e a extensão do sub-registro de casos. MÉTODOS: Amostraram-se 4.782 domicílios residenciais do município de Botucatu, SP, contendo 17.219 moradores, em primeiro de julho de 1997. Em cada um dos domicílios, um morador adulto era entrevistado para identificar ocorrência de acidentes do trabalho nos três meses precedentes à entrevista. Nos casos positivos, os acidentados foram entrevistados. Para cálculo do intervalo de confiança utilizou-se a formula de Cochran. RESULTADOS: Confirmaram ter sofrido acidente do trabalho 76 indivíduos, estimando-se em 1.810 o número desses eventos em Botucatu no ano de 1997 e a proporção de incidência em 4,1% (IC95% 3,0%-5,3%). Dos 76 acidentados, 39 não eram cobertos pelo seguro acidente previdenciário (51,3% IC95% 41,1%-61,6%), não se enquadrando na obrigatoriedade de emissão de Comunicação de Acidente do Trabalho (funcionários públicos estatutários, autônomos, assalariados sem registro em carteira, proprietários e outros). Dentre os 37 casos com obrigatoriedade de emissão desse documento, 20 casos não possuíam (54,1% IC39,4%-68,7%). Houve maior proporção de sub-registro de casos em trabalhadores de micro, pequenas e médias empresas, do que entre grandes empresas. Apenas 22,4% (IC13,8%, 30,9%) dos acidentes do trabalho informados nas entrevistas domiciliares foram captados pelos registros previdenciários CONCLUSÕES: Os achados indicam a necessidade de melhoria de utilização de outras fontes de informação, além das Comunicações de Acidentes do Trabalho, para elaboração das estatísticas oficiais sobre acidentes do trabalho.
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OBJETIVO: Propor técnicas de correção de sub-registro e redistribuição de causas mal definidas para o Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade e o Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS. MÉTODOS: Para a correção de sub-registro foram utilizados os estimadores bayesianos empíricos de James-Stein modificados para eventos em áreas geográficas delimitadas, aplicadas nos municípios brasileiros, no ano de 2001. RESULTADOS: Em relação aos dados de mortalidade, obteve-se um acréscimo de 55.671 óbitos, resultando num percentual de correção de sub-registro de 5,9%, mais efetivo nas faixas etárias de menores de cinco anos (8,1%) e de 70 anos e mais (6,4%); nas causas perinatais (8,7%) e causas mal definidas (8,0%); e nos Estados do Maranhão (10,6%), Bahia (9,5%) e Alagoas (8,8%). A redistribuição das causas mal definidas de óbito modificou a estrutura da mortalidade proporcional das regiões Norte e Nordeste, com aumento da proporção de óbitos por doenças do aparelho circulatório e redução para as causas externas e perinatais. A redistribuição das causas mal definidas de internação não alterou a morbidade hospitalar proporcional. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados da correção de sub-registro apresentaram consistência em relação aos achados da literatura, quanto as faixas etárias, causas e regiões do País mais acometidas. Em relação à redistribuição das causas mal-definidas de morte, observou-se coerência espacial na reordenação da mortalidade proporcional. Considera-se este método aplicável aos Sistemas de Informação em Saúde nacionais, já que pode ser implementado em rotinas computacionais. Entretanto, alguns aprimoramentos podem ser considerados, como a distribuição espaço-temporal dos eventos na aplicação dos estimadores.
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The objective of the study was to describe seasonality of hospitalizations for heart failure in tropical climate as it has been described in cold climates. Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving-Average model was applied to time-series data of heart failure hospitalizations between 1996 and 2004 in Niteroi (Southeastern Brazil), collected from the Brazilian National Health Service Database. The standard seasonal variation was obtained by means of moving-average filtering and averaging data. The lowest and the highest annual hospital admissions were 507 (1997) and 849 (2002), respectively; the lowest and the highest monthly rates were 419 (December) and 681 (October), respectively. Peak admission rates were seen during the fall and winter. Although weak, the seasonality observed indicates that slight variations result in increased hospitalizations for heart failure.
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OBJETIVO: Estimar o número de ocorrências de nascidos vivos e, por conseqüência, o sub-registro civil de nascidos vivos. MÉTODOS: As bases de dados do Sistema Nacional de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos e do Registro Civil do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, nos segundo e terceiro trimestres de 2006 do estado de Sergipe, foram pareadas por relacionamento determinístico a partir do número da Declaração de Nascido Vivo. A desagregação geográfica adotada foi a de microrregião de residência da mãe. Os modelos de Huggins para populações fechadas foram aplicados para estimar as probabilidades de captura em cada base e o total de nascidos vivos ocorrido no período, dentro de cada desagregação geográfica. O aplicativo utilizado para as estimações foi o Software MARK®. RESULTADOS: O sub-registro civil no período analisado foi de 19,3%. A aplicação do método de captura-recaptura para estimar sub-registro de nascidos vivos é factível, inclusive para desagregações geográficas menores do que unidade da federação. O relacionamento determinístico foi prejudicado em quatro microrregiões, devido à falta de preenchimento do número da Declaração de Nascido Vivo na base do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Identificou-se que a idade da mãe afeta a probabilidade de captura pelo Registro Civil, característica de heterogeneidade na população de nascidos vivos. CONCLUSÕES: O método de captura-recaptura mostrou-se viável para a estimação de sub-registro de nascidos vivos.
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Laboratory tests with aqueous solutions of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii latex have demonstrated seasonal stability of the molluscicidal principle, with LD90 values of 1.14 ppm (spring), 1.02 ppm (fall), 1.09 ppm (winter), and 1.07 ppm (summer) that have been determined against Biomphalaria tenagophila in the field. Assays on latex collected in Belo Horizonte and Recife yielded LD90 values similar to those obtained with the reference substance collected in Rio de Janeiro (Ilha do Governador), demonstrating geographic stability of the molluscicidal effect. The molluscicidal action of aqueous dilutions of the latex in natura, centrifuged (precipitate) and lyophilized, was stable for up to 124 days at room temperature (in natura) and for up to 736 days in a common refrigerator at 10 to 12ºC (lyophilized product). A 5.0 ppm solution is 100% lethal for snails up to 13 days after preparation, the effect being gradually lost to almost total inactivity by the 30th day. This observation indicated that the active principle is instable. These properties together with the wide distribution of the plant, its resistance and adaptation to the tropical climate, its easy cultivation and the easy obtention of latex and preparation of the molluscicidal solution, make this a promising material for large-scale use in the control of schistosomiasis
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Anti-RESA/Pf155 antibodies were assayed in sera of individuals from three localities (Laranjal do Jari, Vila Padaria and Vila Paraíso) in the State of Amapá, Brazil, during the long-rains and short-rains seasons. All of these had negative blood smears for malaria. Most of the sera collected were positive in Indirect Fluorescent Antibody (IFA) with P. falciparum parasites, with no seasonal variation. A high percentage of these sera (62% to 100%) was RESA positive by Modified Indirect Fluorescent Antibody (MIFA), with a significant (p < 0.05) increase of geometric mean titers during the short-rains season, when the transmission of the disease is highest. ELISA with three repetitive RESA peptides (EENV)3 (4x3), (EENVEHDA)2 (8x2) and (DDEHVEEPTVA)2(11x2) did not reveal statistically significant seasonal variations, although a small enhancement of positivity was observed in V. Padaria (15.3 to 38.8%) in the short-rains season with the 8x2 peptides, and with 4x3 and 8x2 peptides in V. Paraíso, with a decrease in 11x2. MIFA titers appeared to be correlated mainly to the peptide 4x3 and it was the immunodominant in the three localities.
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The respiratory viruses are recognized as the most frequent lower respiratory tract pathogens for infants and young children in developed countries but less is known for developing populations. The authors conducted a prospective study to evaluate the occurrence, clinical patterns, and seasonal trends of viral infections among hospitalized children with lower respiratory tract disease (Group A). The presence of respiratory viruses in children's nasopharyngeal was assessed at admission in a pediatric ward. Cell cultures and immunofluorescence assays were used for viral identification. Complementary tests included blood and pleural cultures conducted for bacterial investigation. Clinical data and radiological exams were recorded at admission and throughout the hospitalization period. To better evaluate the results, a non- respiratory group of patients (Group B) was also constituted for comparison. Starting in February 1995, during a period of 18 months, 414 children were included- 239 in Group A and 175 in Group B. In Group A, 111 children (46.4%) had 114 viruses detected while only 5 children (2.9%) presented viruses in Group B. Respiratory Syncytial Virus was detected in 100 children from Group A (41.8%), Adenovirus in 11 (4.6%), Influenza A virus in 2 (0.8%), and Parainfluenza virus in one child (0.4%). In Group A, aerobic bacteria were found in 14 cases (5.8%). Respiratory Syncytial Virus was associated to other viruses and/or bacteria in six cases. There were two seasonal trends for Respiratory Syncytial Virus cases, which peaked in May and June. All children affected by the virus were younger than 3 years of age, mostly less than one year old. Episodic diffuse bronchial commitment and/or focal alveolar condensation were the clinical patterns more often associated to Respiratory Syncytial Virus cases. All children from Group A survived. In conclusion, it was observed that Respiratory Syncytial Virus was the most frequent pathogen found in hospitalized children admitted for severe respiratory diseases. Affected children were predominantly infants and boys presenting bronchiolitis and focal pneumonias. Similarly to what occurs in other subtropical regions, the virus outbreaks peak in the fall and their occurrence extends to the winter, which parallels an increase in hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases.
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Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection constitutes a major public health problem in Brazil. The transmission of HAV is primarily by fecal-oral route so the water is an important vehicle of HAV dissemination. There is a great incidence of acute cases of hepatitis A in some areas of Brazil however the seasonal variation of these cases was not documented. The aim of this study was to determine the seasonality of HAV infection in Rio de Janeiro. From January 1999 to December 2001, 1731 blood samples were collected at the National Reference Center for Hepatitis Viruses in Brazil (NRCHV). These samples were tested by a commercial enzyme-immunoassay to detect anti-HAV IgM antibodies. Yearly positive rates were 33.74% in 1999, 32.19% in 2000, and 30.63% in 2001. A seasonal variation was recognized with the highest incidence in spring and summer. Furthermore a seasonal increase in incidence of HAV infection was found during the rainy season (December to March) because the index of rains is very high. It is concluded that HAV infections occur all year round with a peak during hot seasons with great number of rains.
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The authors observed an injury caused by the sting of a false tocandira ant in the hand of an amateur fisherman and they describe the clinical findings and the evolution of the envenoming, which presented an acute and violent pain, cold sweating, nausea, a vomiting episode, malaise, tachycardia and left axillary's lymphadenopathy. About three hours after the accident, still feeling intense pain in the place of the sting, he presented an episode of great amount of blood in the feces with no history of digestive, hematological or vascular problems. The intense pain decreased after eight hours, but the place stayed moderately painful for about 24 hours. In that moment, he presented small grade of local edema and erythema. The authors still present the folkloric, pharmacological and clinical aspects related to the tocandiras stings, a very interesting family of ants, which presents the largest and more venomous ants of the world.
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We conducted a survey of the malaria vectors in an area where a power line had been constructed, between the municipalities of Porto Velho and Rio Branco, in the states of Rondônia and Acre, respectively. The present paper relates to the results of the survey of Anopheles fauna conducted in the state of Rondônia. Mosquito field collections were performed in six villages along the federal highway BR 364 in the municipality of Porto Velho, namely Porto Velho, Jaci Paraná, Mutum Paraná, Vila Abunã, Vista Alegre do Abunã, and Extrema. Mosquito captures were performed at three distinct sites in each locality during the months of February, July, and October 2011 using a protected human-landing catch method; outdoor and indoor captures were conducted simultaneously at each site for six hours. In the six sampled areas, we captured 2,185 mosquitoes belonging to seven Anopheles species. Of these specimens, 95.1% consisted of Anopheles darlingi, 1.8% An. triannulatus l.s., 1.7% An. deaneorum, 0.8% An. konderi l.s., 0.4 An. braziliensis, 0.1% An. albitarsis l.s., and 0.1% An. benarrochi. An. darlingi was the only species found in all localities; the remaining species occurred in sites with specific characteristics.