30 resultados para probabilistic ranking
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The objective of the study was to develop regression models to describe the epidemiological profile of dental caries in 12-year-old children in an area of low prevalence of caries. Two distinct random probabilistic samples of schoolchildren (n=1,763) attending public and private schools in Piracicaba, Southeastern Brazil, were studied. Regression models were estimated as a function of the most affected teeth using data collected in 2005 and were validated using a 2001 database. The mean (SD) DMFT index was 1.7 (2.08) in 2001 and the regression equations estimated a DMFT index of 1.67 (1.98), which corresponds to 98.2% of the DMFT index in 2001. The study provided detailed data on the caries profile in 12-year-old children by using an updated analytical approach. Regression models can be an accurate and feasible method that can provide valuable information for the planning and evaluation of oral health services.
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OBJETIVO: Desenvolver um modelo preditivo de óbito hospitalar com base nos dados do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal com dados de 453.515 autorizações de internação de 332 hospitais do Rio Grande do Sul no ano de 2005. A partir da razão entre óbitos observados e óbitos esperados elaborou-se um ranking ajustado dos hospitais que foi comparado ao ranking bruto da taxa de mortalidade. Utilizou-se regressão logística para desenvolvimento do modelo preditivo de probabilidade para óbito hospitalar segundo sexo, idade, diagnóstico e uso de unidade de terapia intensiva. Foram obtidos os intervalos com 95% de confiança para 206 hospitais com mais de 365 internações por ano. RESULTADOS: Obteve-se um índice de risco para mortalidade hospitalar. A ordenação dos hospitais utilizando apenas a taxa de mortalidade bruta diferiu da ordenação quando se utiliza o ranking ajustado pelo modelo preditivo de probabilidade. Dos 206 hospitais analisados, 40 hospitais apresentaram mortalidade observada significativamente superior à esperada e 58 hospitais com mortalidade significativamente inferior à esperada. Uso de unidade de terapia intensiva apresentou maior peso para a composição do índice de risco, seguida pela idade e diagnóstico. Quando os hospitais atendem pacientes com perfis muito diferentes, o ajuste de risco não resulta numa indicação definitiva sobre qual prestador é o melhor. Os hospitais de grande porte apresentaram, no conjunto, maior número de óbitos do que seria esperado de acordo com as características das internações. CONCLUSÕES: O índice de risco de óbito hospitalar mostrou-se preditor adequado para o cálculo dos óbitos esperados, podendo ser aplicado na avaliação do desempenho hospitalar. Recomenda-se que, ao comparar hospitais, seja utilizado o ajuste pelo modelo preditivo de probabilidade de risco, estratificando-se pelo porte do hospital.
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OBJECTIVE To test whether the occupational conditions of professional truck drivers are associated with amphetamine use after demographic characteristics and ones regarding mental health and drug use are controlled for.METHODS Cross-sectional study, with a non-probabilistic sample of 684 male truck drivers, which was collected in three highways in Sao Paulo between years 2012 and 2013. Demographic and occupational information was collected, as well as data on drug use and mental health (sleep quality, emotional stress, and psychiatric disorders). A logistic regression model was developed to identify factors associated with amphetamine use. Odds ratio (OR; 95%CI) was defined as the measure for association. The significance level was established as p < 0.05.RESULTS The studied sample was found to have an average age of 36.7 (SD = 7.8) years, as well as low education (8.6 [SD = 2.3] years); 29.0% of drivers reported having used amphetamines within the twelve months prior to their interviews. After demographic and occupational variables had been controlled for, the factors which indicated amphetamine use among truck drivers were the following: being younger than 38 years (OR = 3.69), having spent less than nine years at school (OR = 1.76), being autonomous (OR = 1.65), working night shifts or irregular schedules (OR = 2.05), working over 12 hours daily (OR = 2.14), and drinking alcohol (OR = 1.74).CONCLUSIONS Occupational aspects are closely related to amphetamine use among truck drivers, which reinforces the importance of closely following the application of law (Resting Act (“Lei do Descanso”); Law 12,619/2012) which regulates the workload and hours of those professionals. Our results show the need for increased strictness on the trade and prescription of amphetamines in Brazil.
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify the factors that interfere with the access of adolescents and young people to childbirth care for in the Northeast region of Brazil. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 3,014 adolescents and young people admitted to the selected maternity wards to give birth in the Northeast region of Brazil. The sample design was probabilistic, in two stages: the first corresponded to the health establishments and the second to women who had recently given birth and their babies. The data was collected by means of interviews and consulting the hospital records, from pre-tested electronic form. Descriptive statistics were used for the univariate analysis, Pearson’s Chi-square test for the bivariate analysis and multiple logistic regressions for the multivariate analysis. Sociodemographic variables, obstetrical history, and birth care were analyzed. RESULTS Half of the adolescents and young people interviewed had not been given guidance on the location that they should go to when in labor, and among those who had, 23.5% did not give birth in the indicated health service. Furthermore, one third (33.3%) had to travel in search of assisted birth, and the majority (66.7%) of the postpartum women came to maternity by their own means. In the bivariate analysis, the variables marital status, paid work, health insurance, number of previous pregnancies, parity, city location, and type of health establishment showed a significant association (p < 0.20) with inadequate access to childbirth care. The multivariate analysis showed that married adolescents and young people (p < 0.015), with no health insurance (p < 0.002) and from the countryside (p < 0.001) were more likely to have inadequate access to childbirth care. CONCLUSIONS Adolescents and young women, married, without health insurance, and from the countryside are more likely to have inadequate access to birth care. The articulation between outpatient care and birth care can improve this access and, consequently, minimize the maternal and fetal risks that arise from a lack of systematic hospitalization planning.
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Publications are often used as a measure of research work success. Human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) type 1 and 2 are human retroviruses, which were discovered in the early 1980s, and it is estimated that 15-20 million people are infected worldwide. This article describes a bibliometric review and a coauthorship network analysis of literature on HTLV indexed in PubMed in a 24-year period. A total of 7,564 documents were retrieved, showing a decrease in the number of documents from 1996 to 2007. HTLV manuscripts were published in 1,074 journals. Japan and USA were the countries with the highest contribution in this field (61%) followed by France (8%). Production ranking changed when the number of publications was normalized by population (Dominican Republic and Japan), by gross domestic product (Guinea-Bissau and Gambia), and by gross national income per capita (Brazil and Japan). The present study has shed light on some of the defining features of scientific collaboration performed by HTLV research community, such as the existence of core researchers responsible for articulating the development of research in the area, facilitating wider collaborative relationships and the integration of new authors in the research groups.
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A preliminary survey was conducted for the presence of helminths in the city of Montes Claros, M. G., Brazil. Three groups of persons were examined by the direct smear, Kato thick film and MIFC techniques; one group by direct smear and Kato only. General findings were: a high prevalence of hookworm, followed by ascariasis, S. mansoni, S. stercoralis and very light infections with T. trichiurá. E. vermicularis and H. nana were ranking parasites at an orphanage, with some hookworm and S. mansoni infections as well. At a pig slaughter house, the dominant parasites were hookworm and S. mansoni. Pig cysticercosis was an incidental finding worth mentioning for the health hazard it represents for humans as well as an economic loss. From the comparative results between the Kato and the MIF the former proved itself again as a more sensitive and reliable concentration method for helminth eggs, of low cost and easy performance.
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Chagas disease is becoming a public health problem in Latin America due to the wide distribution, the high prevalence, the magnitude of the damage caused and the difficulties to control it. In Paraguay, the disease is mainly distributed in the departments of Paraguari, Cordillera and Central. Prevalence in marginal zones, where migrations from rural populations and endemic areas make possible the urbanization of the disease, has no been studied yet. This is a descriptive study with a cross-sectional sampling and a probabilistic system recruitment carried out in school aged children from marginal zones of Asuncion to determine the prevalence of Chagas' disease. Serological methods, parasite isolation and questionnaires were used to achieve the goals. Nine hundred and fifty three children were studied to determine the prevalence of Chagas' disease in marginal zones which was 1.4%.
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INTRODUCTION: Publications are often used as a measure of success in research work. Chagas disease occurs in Central and Southern America. However, during the past years, the disease has been occurring outside Latin America due to migration from endemic zones. This article describes a bibliometric review of the literature on Chagas disease research indexed in PubMed during a 70-year period. METHODS: Medline was used via the PubMed online service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine from 1940 to 2009. The search strategy was: Chagas disease [MeSH] OR Trypanosoma cruzi [MeSH]. RESULTS: A total of 13,989 references were retrieved. The number of publications increased steadily over time from 1,361 (1940-1969) to 5,430 (2000-2009) (coefficient of determination for linear fit, R²=0.910). Eight journals contained 25% of the Chagas disease literature. Of the publications, 64.2% came from endemic countries. Brazil was the predominant country (37%), followed by the United States (17.6%) and Argentina (14%). The ranking in production changed when the number of publications was normalized by estimated cases of Chagas disease (Panama and Uruguay), population (Argentina and Uruguay), and gross domestic product (Bolivia and Brazil). CONCLUSIONS: Several Latin American countries, where the prevalence of T. cruzi infection was not very high, were the main producers of the Chagas disease literature, after adjusting for economic and population indexes. The countries with more estimated cases of Chagas disease produced less research on Chagas disease than some developed countries.
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Studies have shown that the age of 12 was determined as the age of global monitoring of caries for international comparisons and monitoring of disease trends. The aimed was to evaluate the prevalence of dental caries, fluorosis and periodontal condition and their relation with socioeconomic factors among schoolchildren aged twelve in the city of Manaus, AM. This study with a probabilistic sample of 661 children was conducted, 609 from public and 52 from private schools, in 2008. Dental caries, periodontal condition and dental fluorosis were evaluated. In order to obtain the socioeconomic classification of each child (high, upper middle, middle, lower middle, low and lower low socioeconomic classes), the guardians were given a questionnaire. The mean decayed teeth, missing teeth, and filled teeth (DMFT) found at age twelve was 1.89. It was observed that the presence of dental calculus was the most severe periodontal condition detected in 39.48%. In relation to dental fluorosis, there was a low prevalence in the children examined, i.e., the more pronounced lines of opacity only occasionally merge, forming small white areas. The study showed a significant association of 5% among social class with dental caries and periodontal condition. In schoolchildren of Manaus there are low mean of DMFT and fluorosis, but a high occurrence of gingival bleeding.
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ABSTRACT Objective Investigate the occurrence of dual diagnosis in users of legal and illegal drugs. Methods It is an analytical, cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, non-probabilistic intentional sampling, carried out in two centers for drug addiction treatment, by means of individual interviews. A sociodemographic questionnaire, the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) were used. Results One hundred and ten volunteers divided into abstinent users (group 1), alcoholics (group 2) and users of alcohol and illicit drugs (group 3). The substances were alcohol, tobacco, crack and marijuana. A higher presence of dual diagnosis in group 3 (71.8%) was observed, which decreased in group 2 (60%) and 37.1% of drug abstinent users had psychiatric disorder. Dual diagnosis was associated with the risk of suicide, suicide attempts and the practice of infractions. The crack consumption was associated with the occurrence of major depressive episode and antisocial personality disorder. Conclusion It was concluded that the illicit drug users had a higher presence of dual diagnosis showing the severity of this clinical condition. It is considered essential that this clinical reality is included in intervention strategies in order to decrease the negative effects of consumption of these substances and provide better quality of life for these people.
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In population surveys in wich the Schistosoma mansoni intensity of infection is low, or in localities where the schistosomiasis control program had success the parasitologic methods lack in sensitivity. Despite of some limitations the immunological methods are useful to provide valuable information in such field conditions. Thus, the prevalaence of schistosomiasis in untreated population can be determined by the detection of IgG or IgM antibodies, as well as the incidence by the IgA antibodies , employing mainly immunofluorescence (IF) and immunoenzymatic (ELISA), and in some extent hemagglutination (HA) or even skin test. The true prevalence and incidence of schistosomiasis can be estimated using a probabilistic model equation, since knowing before-hand the sensitivity and specificity of emploved test. The sensitivity and the specificity of serologic test become higher in low aged group, under 14. The geometric mean IF titers also gives a positive correlation with the intensity of infection. Presently there are need of serologic tests wich are economic and pratical in soroepidemiologic inquires, requiring no specialized personnel to collect population blood or serum and also easily interpret the test results. The reagents for such tests are desired to be stable and reproducible. Moreover, it is expected that the tests can distinguish an ative infection.
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A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.
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Despite efforts to eradicate American trypanosomiasis (AT) and Chagas disease from the Americas, there are still areas of active transmission that can eventually become a source of reinfection in previously controlled regions. Mexico could be one of those areas, where there are no formal preventive control programs despite the presence of communities infested by Triatominae bugs infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. This study explored the prevalence of T. cruzi infection in 405 habitants of 17 communities in the state of Colima, on the Pacific Mexican coast, through a seroepidemiological probabilistic survey. The results revealed a point seroprevalence of 2.4% positive for anti-T. cruzi. In addition, 2 clinical cases of chronic and 2 of acute Chagas disease were detected in the explored communities. These findings confirm the risk of active transmission of AT in Western Mexico, especially in rural and suburban communities infested with intra-domestic triatominae, where control programs should be implemented.
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With the aim of determining the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection by thick smear and PCR and its association with demographic and epidemiological characteristics in the village of Nuevo Tay, Tierralta, Córdoba, Colombia, a cross-sectional population study was carried out, using random probabilistic sampling. Venous blood samples were taken from 212 people on day 0 for thick smear and PCR. Clinical follow-up and thick smears were carried out on days 14 and 28. The prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infection was 17.9% (38/212; 95% CI: 12.5-23.3%) and the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodiumspp. infection was 14.6% (31/212; 95% CI: 9.6-19.6%). Plasmodium vivax was found more frequently (20/31; 64.5%) than Plasmodium falciparum (9/31; 29%) and mixed infections (2/31; 6.5%). A significantly higher prevalence of asymptomatic infection was found in men (19.30%) than in women (9.18%) (prevalence ratio: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.01-4.34%; p = 0.02). People who developed symptoms had a significantly higher parasitemia on day 0 than those who remained asymptomatic, of 1,881.5 ± 3,759 versus 79 ± 106.9 (p = 0.008). PCR detected 50% more infections than the thick smears. The presence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection highlights the importance of carrying out active searches amongst asymptomatic populations residing in endemic areas.
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In seven studied communities of Western Mexico, triatomine specimens were sympatrically collected, some with atypical morphological characteristics in contrast to pure specimens, which were presumed to be hybrids. More than 200 specimens of Meccus pallidipennis and Meccus longipennis with brown-yellow markings on dorsal connexival segments were collected in Ahuacapán and Quitupan. In La Mesa, more than 60 specimens similar to Meccus picturatus in most morphological characteristics (including size) were collected, although they presented a largely yellowish corium like M. pallidipennis. Interfertility was proven between all of the studied wild hybrid specimens, as well as between all the experimental laboratory hybrids. Two different phenotypes (M. picturatus and M. longipennis) were obtained from crosses between M. picturatus x M. picturatus and M. longipennis x M. longipennis from the three studied localities in state of Nayarit as from La Mesita. Results support the hypothesis that the subspecific ranking of those triatomines may, therefore, be more appropriate because reproductive isolation has not been developed and complete interbreeding was recorded.