Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Plasmodium falciparum proteinases: cloning of the putative gene coding for the merozoite proteinase for erythrocyte invasion (MPEI) and determination of hydrolysis sites of spectrin by Pf37 proteinase

Numerous proteinase activities have been shown to be essential for the survival of Plasmodium falciparum. One approach to antimalarial chemotherapy, would be to block specifically one or several of these activities, by using compounds structurally analogous to the substrates of these proteinases. Such a strategy requires a detailed knowledge of the active site of the proteinase, in order to identify the best substrate for the proteinase. Aiming at developing such a strategy, two proteinases previously identified in our laboratory, were chosen for further characterization of their molecular structure and properties: the merozoite proteinase for erythrocytic invasion (MPEI), involved in the erythrocyte invasion by the merozoites, and the Pf37 proteinase, which hydrolyses human spectrin in vitro.

Predictive value of the acid fast smear for detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in respiratory specimens in a Reference Center of HIV/Aids in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In order to evaluate the predictive value of acid fast bacilii (AFB) smear for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in respiratory specimens in a setting with a high prevalence of Aids and an unknown prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), we retrospectively examined specimens cultured for mycobacteria between 1 September 1993 and 30 September 1994 and medical records of patients with positive culture in a General Hospital, Aids reference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Seventy three per cent (1517/2077) of samples were respiratory specimens and mycobacteria were recovered from 20.6% (313/1517) of these. M. tuberculosis was identified in 94.2% (295/313) and NTM in 5.8% (18/313). The yield of positive AFB smear and of positive culture was 6.1% (93/1517) and 20.6% (313/1517), respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) of AFB for M. tuberculosis was 98.4% in expectorated sputum and 96.4% in bronchoalveolar lavage. Forty four percent (130/295) of specimens with positive culture for M. tuberculosis and 66.7% (12/18) for NTM were from patients HIV positive. The conclusion was that in our study population, the PPV of AFB for M. tuberculosis in respiratory specimens was high and the prevalence of NTM was low despite the high prevalence of HIV positive.

Trypanosoma cruzi ribosomal protein S4: characterization of its coding locus, analysis of transcripts, and antigenicity of the protein

Two allelic genomic fragments containing ribosomal protein S4 encoding genes (rpS4) from Trypanosoma cruzi (CL-Brener strain) were isolated and characterized. One allele comprises two complete tandem repeats of a sequence encoding an rpS4 gene. In the other, only one rpS4 gene is found. Sequence comparison to the accessed data in the genome project database reveals that our two-copy allele corresponds to a variant haplotype. However, the deduced aminoacid sequence of all the gene copies is identical. The rpS4 transcripts processing sites were determined by comparison of genomic sequences with published cDNA data. The obtained sequence data demonstrates that rpS4 genes are expressed in epimastigotes, amastigotes, and trypomastigotes. A recombinant version of rpS4 was found to be an antigenic: it was recognized by 62.5% of the individuals with positive serology for T. cruzi and by 93.3% of patients with proven chronic chagasic disease.

Sequence analysis of coding DNA fragments of pfcrt and pfmdr-1 genes in Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Odisha, India

The global emergence and spread of malaria parasites resistant to antimalarial drugs is the major problem in malaria control. The genetic basis of the parasite's resistance to the antimalarial drug chloroquine (CQ) is well-documented, allowing for the analysis of field isolates of malaria parasites to address evolutionary questions concerning the origin and spread of CQ-resistance. Here, we present DNA sequence analyses of both the second exon of the Plasmodium falciparum CQ-resistance transporter (pfcrt) gene and the 5' end of the P. falciparum multidrug-resistance 1 (pfmdr-1) gene in 40 P. falciparum field isolates collected from eight different localities of Odisha, India. First, we genotyped the samples for the pfcrt K76T and pfmdr-1 N86Y mutations in these two genes, which are the mutations primarily implicated in CQ-resistance. We further analyzed amino acid changes in codons 72-76 of the pfcrt haplotypes. Interestingly, both the K76T and N86Y mutations were found to co-exist in 32 out of the total 40 isolates, which were of either the CVIET or SVMNT haplotype, while the remaining eight isolates were of the CVMNK haplotype. In total, eight nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were observed, six in the pfcrt gene and two in the pfmdr-1 gene. One poorly studied SNP in the pfcrt gene (A97T) was found at a high frequency in many P. falciparum samples. Using population genetics to analyze these two gene fragments, we revealed comparatively higher nucleotide diversity in the pfcrt gene than in the pfmdr-1 gene. Furthermore, linkage disequilibrium was found to be tight between closely spaced SNPs of the pfcrt gene. Finally, both the pfcrt and the pfmdr-1 genes were found to evolve under the standard neutral model of molecular evolution.

Bonafide, type-specific human papillomavirus persistence among HIV-positive pregnant women: predictive value for cytological abnormalities, a longitudinal cohort study

This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Positive predictive values of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS®) categories 3, 4 and 5 in breast lesions submitted to percutaneous biopsy

Objective To evaluate the BI-RADS as a predictive factor of suspicion for malignancy in breast lesions by correlating radiological with histological results and calculating the positive predictive value for categories 3, 4 and 5 in a breast cancer reference center in the city of São Paulo. Materials and Methods Retrospective, analytical and cross-sectional study including 725 patients with mammographic and/or sonographic findings classified as BI-RADS categories 3, 4 and 5 who were referred to the authors' institution to undergo percutaneous biopsy. The tests results were reviewed and the positive predictive value was calculated by means of a specific mathematical equation. Results Positive predictive values found for categories 3, 4 and 5 were respectively the following: 0.74%, 33.08% and 92.95%, for cases submitted to ultrasound-guided biopsy, and 0.00%, 14.90% and 100% for cases submitted to stereotactic biopsy. Conclusion The present study demonstrated high suspicion for malignancy in lesions classified as category 5 and low risk for category 3. As regards category 4, the need for systematic biopsies was observed.

Predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings

PURPOSE: To identify the predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients who underwent a transobturator sling between March 2003 and December 2008. A total of 514 women had available data with at least a six-week follow-up. Patients' demographics, preoperative symptoms, urodynamic testing including multichannel voiding studies and surgical variables were tabulated. Voiding dysfunction was defined by a catheterized or ultrasonographic postvoid residual greater than 100 cc (≥six weeks after the procedure) associated with any complaints of abnormal voiding. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed with respect to postoperative voiding dysfunction. RESULTS: The patient population had a mean age of 58.5±12.9 years. Thirty-three out of 514 patients (6.4%) had postoperative voiding dysfunction according to our definition, and 4 (0.78%) required sling transection. No differences were observed between normal and dysfunctional voiders in age, associated prolapse surgery, preoperative postvoid residual, preoperative urinary flow rate, prior pelvic surgery, and menopausal status. Valsalva efforts during the preoperative pressure flow study was the only predictive factor for postoperative voiding dysfunction, 72.4% dysfunctional versus 27.6% normal (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative Valsalva maneuver during the micturition could identify those at risk for voiding dysfunction after transobturator sling, and it should be noted during preoperative counseling.

Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up

Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

A 37-kb restriction map of the human immunoglobulin lambda variable locus, VB cluster, harboring four functional genes and two non-coding Vl sequences

The human immunoglobulin lambda variable locus (IGLV) is mapped at chromosome 22 band q11.1-q11.2. The 30 functional germline v-lambda genes sequenced untill now have been subgrouped into 10 families (Vl1 to Vl10). The number of Vl genes has been estimated at approximately 70. This locus is formed by three gene clusters (VA, VB and VC) that encompass the variable coding genes (V) responsible for the synthesis of lambda-type Ig light chains, and the Jl-Cl cluster with the joining segments and the constant genes. Recently the entire variable lambda gene locus was mapped by contig methodology and its one- megabase DNA totally sequenced. All the known functional V-lambda genes and pseudogenes were located. We screened a human genomic DNA cosmid library and isolated a clone with an insert of 37 kb (cosmid 8.3) encompassing four functional genes (IGLV7S1, IGLV1S1, IGLV1S2 and IGLV5a), a pseudogene (VlA) and a vestigial sequence (vg1) to study in detail the positions of the restriction sites surrounding the Vl genes. We generated a high resolution restriction map, locating 31 restriction sites in 37 kb of the VB cluster, a region rich in functional Vl genes. This mapping information opens the perspective for further RFLP studies and sequencing

A novel polymorphism in the coding region of the vasopressin type 2 receptor gene

Nephrogenic diabetes insipidus (NDI) is a rare disease characterized by renal inability to respond properly to arginine vasopressin due to mutations in the vasopressin type 2 receptor (V2(R)) gene in affected kindreds. In most kindreds thus far reported, the mode of inheritance follows an X chromosome-linked recessive pattern although autosomal-dominant and autosomal-recessive modes of inheritance have also been described. Studies demonstrating mutations in the V2(R) gene in affected kindreds that modify the receptor structure, resulting in a dys- or nonfunctional receptor have been described, but phenotypically indistinguishable NDI patients with a structurally normal V2(R) gene have also been reported. In the present study, we analyzed exon 3 of the V2(R) gene in 20 unrelated individuals by direct sequencing. A C®T alteration in the third position of codon 331 (AGC®AGT), which did not alter the encoded amino acid, was found in nine individuals, including two unrelated patients with NDI. Taken together, these observations emphasize the molecular heterogeneity of a phenotypically homogeneous syndrome

Hypomagnesemia in critically ill cancer patients: a prospective study of predictive factors

Hypomagnesemia is the most common electrolyte disturbance seen upon admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Reliable predictors of its occurrence are not described. The objective of this prospective study was to determine factors predictive of hypomagnesemia upon admission to the ICU. In a single tertiary cancer center, 226 patients with different diagnoses upon entering were studied. Hypomagnesemia was defined by serum levels <1.5 mg/dl. Demographic data, type of cancer, cause of admission, previous history of arrhythmia, cardiovascular disease, renal failure, drug administration (particularly diuretics, antiarrhythmics, chemotherapy and platinum compounds), previous nutrition intake and presence of hypovolemia were recorded for each patient. Blood was collected for determination of serum magnesium, potassium, sodium, calcium, phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels. Upon admission, 103 (45.6%) patients had hypomagnesemia and 123 (54.4%) had normomagnesemia. A normal dietary habit prior to ICU admission was associated with normal Mg levels (P = 0.007) and higher average levels of serum Mg (P = 0.002). Postoperative patients (N = 182) had lower levels of serum Mg (0.60 ± 0.14 mmol/l compared with 0.66 ± 0.17 mmol/l, P = 0.006). A stepwise multiple linear regression disclosed that only normal dietary habits (OR = 0.45; CI = 0.26-0.79) and the fact of being a postoperative patient (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.17-4.98) were significantly correlated with serum Mg levels (overall model probability = 0.001). These findings should be used to identify patients at risk for such disturbance, even in other critically ill populations.