35 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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Six years after the beginning of the epidemiological surveillance of Chagas disease in Berilo and José Gonçalves de Minas, Jequitinhonha Valley, MG, Brazil, a serological inquiry was performed to observe whether the transmission of this endemy was occurring in this area. A randomized sample of 1,412 children seven to 14 years old, was screened. Six asymptomatic children were found to be positive, leading to 0.4% of prevalence. Hemoculture confirmed infection in five out of the six positive cases. Additional epidemiological investigation revealed important antecedents, such as disease reports in relatives and predisposing ecological and housing conditions. Our results demonstrated similar seroprevalence (0.4%) in schoolchildren, ranging from seven to 14 years old, and that were observed six years ago (0.2%) for children 0-9 year-old. Thus, considering the constant presence of Panstrogylus megistus in the peridomicile these findings emphasize the need of continuous improved epidemiological surveillance of Chagas disease in this region.

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INTRODUCTION: Human serofrequency of antibodies against Taenia solium antigens was determined and risk factors for cysticercosis transmission were identified. METHODS: Individuals (n=878) from periurban and rural locations of Lages, SC, were interviewed to gather demographic, sanitary and health information. Interviews and blood sample collections by finger prick on Whatman filter paper were performed from August 2004 to May 2005. Observation determined that 850 samples were suitable for analysis and were tested by ELISA using vesicular fluid of Taenia crassiceps heterologous antigen. To ensure the reliability of the results, 77 samples of the dried blood were matched with sera. The reactive samples were submitted to a serum confirmatory immunoblot (IB) test using purified Taenia crassiceps glycoproteins. RESULTS: The ELISA results for the dried blood and serum samples were statistically consistent. ELISA was positive in 186 (21.9%) out of 850 individuals. A group of 213 individuals were asked to collect vein blood for IB (186 with positive result in ELISA and 27 with inappropriate whole blood samples) and 130 attended the request. The IB was positive in 29 (3.4%) out of 850 individuals. A significant correlation (p = 0.0364) was determined among individuals who tested positive in the IB assay who practiced both pig rearing and kitchen gardening. CONCLUSIONS: ELISA with dried blood eluted from filter paper was suitable for cysticercosis population surveys. In Lages, human infection was associated with pig rearing and kitchen gardening. The prevalence index was compatible with other Latin American endemic areas.

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PURPOSE: To find out the prevalence of hypertension in employees of the Hospital and relate it to social demographic variables. METHODS: Blood pressure measurement was performed with a mercury sphygmomanometer, using an appropriate cuff size for arm circumference, weight, and height in a population sample of 864 individuals out of the 9,905 employees of a University General Hospital stratified by gender, age, and job position. RESULTS: Hypertension prevalence was 26% (62% of these reported being aware of their hypertension and 38% were unaware but had systolic/diastolic blood pressures of >140 and/or >90 mm Hg at the moment of the measurement). Of those who were aware of having hypertension, 51% were found to be hypertensive at the moment of the measurement. The prevalence was found to be 17%, 23%, and 29% (P <.05) in physicians, nursing staff, and "others", respectively. The univariate analysis showed a significant odds ratio for the male gender, age >50 years, work unit being the Institute of Radiology and the Administration Building, educational level 10 years, and body mass index >30 kg/m². The multivariate logistic regression model revealed a statistically significant association of hypertension with the following variables: gender, age, skin color, family income, and body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension prevalence was high, mainly in those who were not physicians or members of the nursing staff. High-risk groups (obese, non-white, men, low family income) should be better advised of prevention and early diagnosis of hypertension by means of special programs.

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A multilocus mixed-mating model was used to evaluate the mating system of a population of Couratari multiflora, an emergent tree species found in low densities (1 individual/10 ha) in lowland forests of central Amazonia. We surveyed and observed phenologically 41 trees in an area of 400 ha. From these, only four mother trees were analyzed here because few of them set fruits, which also suffered high predation. No difference was observed between the population multilocus outcrossing rate (t mp = 0.953 ± 0.040) and the average single locus rate (t sp = 0.968 ± 0.132). The four mother trees were highly outcrossed (t m ~ 1). Two out of five loci showed departures from the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) expectations, and the same results occurred with the mixed-mating model. Besides the low number of trees analyzed, the proportion of loci in HWE suggests random mating in the population. However, the pollen pool was heterogeneous among families, probably due to both the small sample number and the flowering of trees at different times of the flowering season. Reproductive phenology of the population and the results presented here suggest, at least for part of the population, a long-distance pollen movement, around 1,000 m.

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In the present comparative study a Biomphalaria straminea sample from Picos (Piauí) showed expressive advantages related to fecundity over a B. glabrata sample from Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) such as: higher egg-mass production in 10 out of 12 months of study; higher egg production in all months of study; higher egg per egg-mass ratio in 11 out of 12 months of study; 66% of the egg-masses containing more than 20 eggs while in B. glabrata 70% of the egg-masses showed less than 20 eggs; three times less empty egg capsules than B. glabrata; attainning maximum fecundity in half the time required by B. glabrata. Mortality however was higher and sooner in B. straminea, suggesting higher semelparity in this species than in B. glabrata, a possibility that requires confirmation through long-term studies with other samples of both species. This first finding of a B. straminea sample more fecund than B. glabrata is discussed in relation to other data from the literature, and some recommendations are made on the quantification of fecundity of planorbid snails.

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To analyze whether electrocardiographic alterations (ECGA) in patients with antibodies to Trypanosoma cruzi showed a patttern of familial aggregation, a sample of 379 young adults (166 men and 213 women) distributed in sibships, were assessed for the presence of anti-T.cruzi antibodies, and subjected to a complete clinical examination and a standard resting electrocardiogram (ECG). Positive T. cruzi serology was detected in 165 individuals, 48 of them showing an abnormal ECG (overall prevalence 29 por cento). One hundred and eleven seropositive individuals were distributed in 45 sibships, each of them constituted by more than one seropositive sib, with ECGA being present in 34 out of these patients. Seropositive subjects with ECGA were detected in 27 sibships. Since the index case within each sibship is counted exactly once, affected individuals selected at random as propositi were extracted to calculate the prevalence of ECGA among first degree relatives of probands. Abnormal ECGs were recorded in 7 out of 45 sibs yielding a prevalence that did not differ from estimations registered in the general population or seropositive sibs. Data from the present sample show no familial aggregation for the occurrence of ECGA in patients with T.cruzi infection.

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The detection of IgM antibodies for Schistosoma mansoni using gut-associated antigens (IgM-IFT) was compared to the parasitological Kato-Katz method for study of the transmission of schistosomiasis in an urban area in Campinas. About 400 schoolchildren whose ages ranged from 6 to 18 years, were observed for a period of two years. Blood samples on filter paper and fecal samples were collected, at intervals of six months. Serological (IgM-IFT) prevalence rates of 1.2%, 4.3%, 3.6%, 2.9% and 3.4% were obtained in five surveys carried out. S. mansoni eggs were detected in only one child out of the 225 children (0.4%) who were submitted to the Kato-Katz method (three slides for each fecal sample) in the 1st survey. Sixty eight children who submitted five blood samples, one for each survey, were found IFT negative throughout the study. No child was found to be IFT positive in all five surveys, and only four children showed IFT positive results in at least four surveys. Seroconversion from IFT negative to positive was observed from the 1st to the 2nd survey in six chidren, from the 2nd to the 3rd survey in three children, from the 3rd to the 4th survey in four children, and from the 4th to the 5th survey in two cases. However, confirmation of S. mansoni infection using the fecal examination was not possible in any of the cases. Also, in most of them the IFT result oscillated from negative to positive and vice versa. Our data implied that recent transmission of schistosomiasis in the study area was not possible.

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With the objective to evaluate PCR-mediated detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA as a diagnostic procedure for diagnosis of tuberculosis in individuals attending ambulatory services in Primary Health Units of the City Tuberculosis Program in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, their sputum samples were collected and treated with a DNA extraction procedure using silica-guanidiniumthiocyanate. This procedure has been described to be highly efficient for extraction of different kind of nucleic acids from bacteria and clinical samples. Upon comparing PCR results with the number of acid-fast bacilli, no direct relation was observed between the number of bacilli present in the sample and PCR positivity. Part of the processed samples was therefore spiked with pure DNA of M. tuberculosis and inhibition of the PCR reaction was verified in 22 out of 36 (61%) of the samples, demonstrating that the extraction procedure as originally described should not be used for PCR analysis of sputum samples.

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Leishmania infected of Lutzomyia spp. are rare in endemic areas. We tested the hypothesis that there is clustering of infected vectors by combining pinpoint capture with sensitive L. braziliensis kDNA minicircle specific PCR/dot blot in an endemic area in the State of Bahia. Thirty out of 335 samples (10 to 20 sand flies/sample; total of 4,027 female sand flies) were positive by PCR analysis and dot blot leading to a underestimated overall rate of 0.4% positive phlebotomines. However, 83.3% of the positive samples were contributed by a single sector out of four sectors of the whole studied area. This resulted in a rate of 1.5% Leishmania positive phlebotomines for this sector, far above rates of other sectors. Incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases for this sector was about twice that for other sectors. Our results show that there is a non-homogeneous distribution of Leishmania-infected vectors. Such a clustering may have implications in control strategies against leishmaniasis, and reinforces the necessity of understanding the ecological and geographical factors involved in leishmanial transmission.

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The seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in 832 pregnant women in Miracema, Rio de Janeiro, was determined and 75.1% (625) and 2.0% (17) were anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgG and IgM positive, respectively. Out of the 17 IgM positive pregnant women, only one had low avidity IgG corresponding to the acute phase of the infection. All the other women presented with high avidity IgG and also presented with residual IgM anti-T. gondii. Of this sample, 106 received home visits (this includes 11 family nuclei of pregnant women with residual IgM anti-T. gondii, 68 nuclei of only IgG positive pregnant women and 27 nuclei of pregnant women with no antibodies to anti-T. gondii), resulting in 267 individuals visited. Out of these 267 individuals, 21 were positive for IgG and IgM anti-T. gondii and were candidates for the IgG avidity test. All of them presented with high avidity IgG and residual IgM. Five of these IgM+ individuals were (5/238; 2.1%) relatives of IgM negative pregnant women. The other 16 (16/29; 55.2%) were relatives of IgM+ pregnant women who were positive for residual IgM anti-T. gondii. This association was statistically significant (p = 0.0000). The analysis presented herein raises questions regarding the presence of residual IgM anti-T. gondii such as genetic determinants or even constant antigenic stimuli for the same family cluster.

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The aim of this study was to apply a molecular protocol to detect leptospiral DNA in environmental water samples. The study was carried out in a peri-urban settlement in Petrópolis, state of Rio de Janeiro. A multiplex PCR method employing the primers LipL32 and 16SrRNA was used. Three out of 100 analysed samples were positive in the multiplex PCR, two were considered to have saprophytic leptospires and one had pathogenic leptospires. The results obtained supported the idea that multiplex PCR can be used to detect Leptospira spp in water samples. This method was also able to differentiate between saprophytic and pathogenic leptospires and was able to do so much more easily than conventional methodologies.

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An estimated 360 million people are infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) worldwide. Among these, 65 million live in Africa. Despite the high levels of hepatitis B in Africa, HBV epidemiology is still poorly documented in most African countries. In this work, the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of HBV infection were evaluated among the staff, visitors and adult patients (n = 508) of a public hospital in Luanda, Angola. The overall prevalence of hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) and hepatitis B surface antigen was 79.7% and 15.1%, respectively. HBV infection was higher in males and was more prevalent in individuals younger than 50 years old. HBV-DNA was detected in 100% of HBV "e" antigen-positive serum samples and in 49% of anti-hepatitis Be antibody-positive samples. Thirty-five out of the 40 HBV genotypes belonged to genotype E. Circulation of genotypes A (4 samples) and D (1 sample) was also observed. The present study demonstrates that HBV infection is endemic in Luanda, which has a predominance of genotype E. This genotype is only sporadically found outside of Africa and is thought to have emerged in Africa at a time when the trans-Atlantic slave trade had stopped.

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This study aimed to evaluate the occurrence of schistosomiasis in areas with low endemicity using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as a diagnostic method. We analysed faecal samples from 219 individuals residing in Piau and Coronel Pacheco, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a single faecal sample from each individual and two slides of the Kato-Katz technique as a gold standard. Fifteen out of the 219 samples were positive with both methods of diagnosis. One sample was diagnosed as positive by the Kato-Katz technique only and 61 were diagnosed only by PCR. The positivity rates were 7.3% with the Kato-Katz method and 34.7% with PCR. When both techniques were assumed to have 100% specificity and positive individuals were identified by both methods, the sensitivity of the Kato-Katz method was 20.8% and the PCR sensitivity was 98.7%. The Kappa index between the two techniques was 0.234, suggesting weak agreement. The assessment of a single faecal sample by PCR detected more cases of infection than the analysis of one sample with two slides using the Kato-Katz technique, suggesting that PCR can be a useful diagnostic tool, particularly in areas with low endemicity.

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The aim of the present study was to determine 2,5-hexanedione (2,5-HD), a metabolite of n-hexane, by gas chromatography/flame ionization detection in 31 workers exposed to n-hexane after two types of sample pretreatment, i.e., with (total 2,5-HD) and without (free 2,5-HD) acid hydrolysis. The mean urinary 2,5-HD was 0.52 mg/L (free) and 2.88 mg/L (total), this difference being significant (Student t-test, p < 0.05). The differences in the results according to the sample treatment support the need to modify the current Brazilian legislation, which proposes the analysis of 2,5-HD without indicating whether it is the free or total metabolite.

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ABSTRACT Introduction Sudden death is a substantial public health problem, representing a major cause of mortality worldwide. Suitable initial care is essential for a good prognosis of these patients. Objectives To assess the knowledge of the 2010 guidelines for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) among medical students in their final year of undergraduate training. Methods This was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 217 medical students enrolled in the sixth year of accredited medical schools in Brazil. A structured questionnaire with 27 items was used to record the sociodemographic characteristics of the participants and to assess their knowledge base of the 2010 ILCOR guidelines for CPR. Results Only fifty (23.04%) out of 217 students achieved results considered as satisfactory in the written evaluation. The average score obtained was 56.74% correct answers. Seventeen percent of the students had never performed CPR maneuvers and 83.80% had never performed cardioversion or defibrillation. Conclusions The knowledge base of medical students regarding cardiopulmonary resuscitation is low. Considering these medical students are in their final year of medical school, this study reveals a worrisome scenario.