47 resultados para intervention modelling experiments
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Background: Diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose are important risk factors for mortality in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, but their relative and individual role remains on debate. Objective: To analyze the influence of diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose on the mortality of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention. Methods: Prospective cohort study including every ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patient submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention in a tertiary cardiology center from December 2010 to May 2012. We collected clinical, angiographic and laboratory data during hospital stay, and performed a clinical follow-up 30 days after the ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. We adjusted the multivariate analysis of the studied risk factors using the variables from the GRACE score. Results: Among the 740 patients included, reported diabetes mellitus prevalence was 18%. On the univariate analysis, both diabetes mellitus and admission blood glucose were predictors of death in 30 days. However, after adjusting for potential confounders in the multivariate analysis, the diabetes mellitus relative risk was no longer significant (relative risk: 2.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.76 - 7.59; p-value: 0.13), whereas admission blood glucose remained and independent predictor of death in 30 days (relative risk: 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.02 - 1.09; p-value ≤ 0.01). Conclusion: In ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients submitted to primary coronary percutaneous intervention, the admission blood glucose was a more accurate and robust independent predictor of death than the previous diagnosis of diabetes. This reinforces the important role of inflammation on the outcomes of this group of patients.
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Background:Advantages and disadvantages of ad hoc percutaneous coronary intervention have been described. However little is known about the radiation exposure of that procedure as compared with the staged intervention.Objective:To compare the radiation dose of the ad hoc percutaneous coronary intervention with that of the staged procedureMethods:The dose-area product and total Kerma were measured, and the doses of the diagnostic and therapeutic procedures were added. In addition, total fluoroscopic time and number of acquisitions were evaluated.Results:A total of 568 consecutive patients were treated with ad hoc percutaneous coronary intervention (n = 320) or staged percutaneous coronary intervention (n = 248). On admission, the ad hoc group had less hypertension (74.1% vs 81.9%; p = 0.035), dyslipidemia (57.8% vs. 67.7%; p = 0.02) and three-vessel disease (38.8% vs. 50.4%; p = 0.015). The ad hoc group was exposed to significantly lower radiation doses, even after baseline characteristic adjustment between both groups. The ad hoc group was exposed to a total dose-area product of 119.7 ± 70.7 Gycm2, while the staged group, to 139.2 ± 75.3 Gycm2 (p < 0.001).Conclusion:Ad hoc percutaneous coronary intervention reduced radiation exposure as compared with diagnostic and therapeutic procedures performed at two separate times.
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This paper deals with a generalization of square lattice designs, with k² treatments in blocks of k + 1 plots, the extra plot in each block receiving a standard treatment, the same for all blocks. The new design leads to lower variances for contrasts between adjusted treatment means
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Feces of 34 dogs out of 251 (13.5%) from guanabara were positive for Isospora. From these 19 (7.5%) were i. rivolta, 13 (5.2%) were I. canis and 2 (0,7) were i. bigemina. "Free-sporocysts" of I. rivolta were eliminated by 9 dogs (3.5%). A "Caryospora-like" oocyst was seen once. Cross-infection experiments performed with Isospora from dogs and cats failed to produce infection while inoculations of these Isospora in their natural hosts succeeded. The results suggest that the species of Isospora occurring in cats are different from those of dogs.
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A sample of Biomphalaria amazonica from Porto Velho, Rondônia state, was exposed to miracidia of Schistosoma mansoni (SJ2 strain) from São José dos Campos, São Paulo state (five miracidia per snail). Water freshly taken from the snails' breeding place was used to make sure that its quality was compatible with hatching of miracidia and their penetration into the snails. The resulting infection rate was 3.5%, as against 45% in B. tenagophila controls. In comparison with the controls, B. amazonica, besides a lower infection rate, showed a longer prepatent period and a lower cercarial production. These characteristics seem to indicate that it is a poor host of S. mansoni, like B. straminea, but it should be considered that, this notwithstanding, the latter is admittedly a good vector of the parasite in hyperendemic areas of northeastern Brazil. These results point to the possibility of introduction of schistosomiasis mansoni into the western Amazonian region, where B. amazonica is widespread.
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The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.
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This paper reviews three different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control. Although these approaches vary in their assessment of costs, the major focus of the paper is on the evaluation of effectiveness. The first model presented is a static economic model which assesses effectiveness in terms of the proportion of cases cured. This model is important in highlighting that the optimal choice of chemotherapy regime depends critically on the level of budget constraint, the unit costs of screening and treatment, the rates of compliance with screening and chemotherapy and the prevalence of infection. The limitations of this approach is that it models the cost-effectiveness of only one cycle of treatment, and effectiveness reflects only the immediate impact of treatment. The second model presented is a prevalence-based dynamic model which links prevalence rates from one year to the next, and assesses effectiveness as the proportion of cases prevented. This model was important as it introduced the concept of measuring the long-term impact of control by using a transmission model which can assess reduction in infection through time, but is limited to assessing the impact only on the prevalence of infection. The third approach presented is a theoretical framework which describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity, and which assesses effectiveness in terms of case-years prevented of infection and morbidity. The use of this model in assessing the cost-effectiveness of age-targeted treatment in controlling Schistosoma mansoni is explored in detail, with respect to varying frequencies of treatment and the interaction between drug price and drug efficacy.
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The effectiveness of three operational strategies for the control of Triatoma dimidiata was compared by a field trial in the Department of Madriz, Nicaragua. One strategy involved full pretrial evaluation, followed by spraying of all houses irrespective of whether or not they had been found to be infested. The second strategy minimised the pretrial evaluation by considering the locality infested as soon as one house was found to be positive, followed by spraying all houses. The third strategy involved full pretrial evaluation, followed by spraying only those houses found to be positive. Evaluation after twelve months indicated that all three strategies were similarly effective, since all sprayed houses remained free of infestation. However, comparative estimates of the unit intervention costs indicated that strategies 1 and 2 were substantially less efficient than the third strategy of spraying only positive houses.
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The biological control of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni, is one the accepted options to fight schistosomiasis. One of the most promising candidates to control B. glabrata is the snail Melanoides tuberculata, a potential competitor. However, the mechanisms of interaction between the two species are not clear. Our objective is to determine if M. tuberculata indeed compete with B. glabrata, using two laboratory experiments. In Experiment 1, we tested the effect of the presence of M. tuberculata on the fecundity and mortality rates of B. glabrata. In Experiment 2, we tested if there was a direct or indirect interaction between the two species. In Experiment 1, M. tuberculata was eliminated after the peak in reproductive activity of B. glabrata. In Experiment 2, B. glabrata produced more egg masses when raised with M. tuberculata. The conditions leading to this unexpected positive effect of M. tuberculata on the fecundity of B. glabrata need further clarification, but emphasize that detailed studies of the interaction between these species in the conditions of the local environment should be considered.
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Triatoma brasiliensis is composed of at least four geographic populations (brasiliensis, melanica, macromelasoma, and juazeiro) that have distinct chromatic, morphologic, biologic and ecologic patterns, and genetic composition. Reciprocal crosses between all pairwise combinations were carried out in order to evaluate the genetic and reproductive compatibility of these four populations. The F1 individuals developed normally and the resulting adults were crossed again to test the F2 and F3 viability. Genetic incompatibility was found between melanica and brasiliensis populations.
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An effective schistosome vaccine is a desirable control tool but progress towards that goal has been slow. Protective immunity has been difficult to demonstrate in humans, particularly children, so no routes to a vaccine have emerged from that source. The concept of concomitant immunity appeared to offer a paradigm for a vaccine operating against incoming larvae in the skin but did not yield the expected dividends. The mining of crude parasite extracts, the use of monoclonal antibodies and protein selection based on immunogenicity produced a panel of vaccine candidates, mostly of cytoplasmic origin. However, none of these performed well in independent rodent trials, but glutathione-S-transferease from Schistosoma haematobium is currently undergoing clinical trials as an anti-fecundity vaccine. The sequencing of the S. mansoni transcriptome and genome and the development of proteomic and microarray technologies has dramatically improved the possibilities for identifying novel vaccine candidates, particularly proteins secreted from or exposed at the surface of schistosomula and adult worms. These discoveries are leading to a new round of protein expression and protection experiments that will enable us to evaluate systematically all the major targets available for immune intervention. Only then will we know if schistosomes have an Achilles' heel.
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Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani s.l.is the main vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis in state of Mato Grosso, but little is known about environmental determinants of its spatial distribution on a regional scale. Entomologic surveys of this sand fly species, conducted between 1996 and 2001 in 41 state municipalities, were used to investigate the relationships between environmental factors and the presence of the species, and to develop a spatial model of habitat suitability. The relationship between averaged CDC light trap indexes and 15 environmental and socio-economic factors were tested by logistic regression (LR) analysis. Spatial layers of deforestation tax and the Brazilian index of gross net production (IGNP) were identified as significant explanatory variables for vector presence in the LR model, and these were then overlaid with habitat maps. The highest habitat suitability in 2001 was obtained for the heavily deforested areas in the Central-North, South, East, and Southwest of Mato Grosso, particularly in municipalities with lower IGNP values.
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Ecological niche modelling was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Rhodnius nasutus Stål and Rhodnius neglectus Lent, in Brazil and to investigate the niche divergence between these morphologically similar triatomine species. The distribution of R. neglectus covered mainly the cerrado of Central Brazil, but the prediction maps also revealed its occurrence in transitional areas within the caatinga, Pantanal and Amazon biomes. The potential distribution of R. nasutus covered the Northeastern Region of Brazil in the semi-arid caatinga and the Maranhão babaçu forests. Clear ecological niche differences between these species were observed. R. nasutus occurred more in warmer and drier areas than R. neglectus. In the principal component analysis PC1 was correlated with altitude and temperature (mainly temperature in the coldest and driest months) and PC2 with vegetation index and precipitation. The prediction maps support potential areas of co-occurrence for these species in the Maranhão babaçu forests and in caatinga/cerrado transitional areas, mainly in state of Piaui. Entomologists engaged in Chagas disease vector surveillance should be aware that R. neglectus and R. nasutus can occur in the same localities of Northeastern Brazil. Thus, the identification of bugs in these areas should be improved by applying morphometrical and/or molecular methods.
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Geographical Information System (GIS) is a tool that has recently been applied to better understand spatial disease distributions. Using meteorological, social, sanitation, mollusc distribution data and remote sensing variables, this study aimed to further develop the GIS technology by creating a model for the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and to apply this model to an area with rural tourism in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais (MG). The Estrada Real, covering about 1,400 km, is the largest and most important Brazilian tourism project, involving 163 cities in MG with different schistosomiasis prevalence rates. The model with three variables showed a R² = 0.34, with a standard deviation of risk estimated adequate for public health needs. The main variables selected for modelling were summer vegetation, summer minimal temperature and winter minimal temperature. The results confirmed the importance of Remote Sensing data and the valuable contribution of GIS in identifying priority areas for intervention in tourism regions which are endemic to schistosomiasis.