Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.

Rethinking macroeconomic policies for development

The global economic crisis has created an opportunity to rethink macroeconomics for development. Such rethinking is both necessary and desirable. It is essential to redefine macroeconomic objectives so that the emphasis is on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth instead of the focus on price stability alone. It is just as important to rethink macroeconomic policies which cannot simply be used for the management of inflation and the elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, since fiscal and monetary policies are powerful and versatile instruments in the pursuit of development objectives. In doing so, it is essential to the overcome the constraints embedded in orthodox economic thinking and recognize the constraints implicit in the politics of ideology and interests.

Conservadorismo e rigidez na política monetária: uma estimativa da função de reação do BCB (2000-2007)

This paper aims at evaluating the conduction of monetary policy after the adoption of inflation targeting. Formation of Selic rate is modeled by estimating a reaction function of the BCB. Results show an excessive degree of interest rate smoothing and a high level of equilibrium interest rate. This evidence supports the belief that Selic rate's formation is ruled by a conservative behavior. The conservative conduction of monetary policy is related to two distinct features of BCB's reaction function: i) the great weight of autoregressive components; and, chiefly, ii) a very high level of the equilibrium interest rate. The main conclusion is that, all remaining unchanged, the interest rate would hardly be reduced in a satisfactory way. Massive and chronic deflation would be needed if Selic were to reach a reasonable level, closer to that of rates in the rest of the world. This evidences the need for a debate on the adequacy of current stabilization strategy.

The Banco Central do Brasil's institutional framework after ten years

The Banco Central do Brazil (BACEN) adopted inflation targeting in 1999. This monetary policy regime originates in institutional design which remains crucial today for the expectations management, and is in permanent evolution. After 10 years, the BACEN institutional framework is assessed, asking if there is still room for improvement. Various institutional procedures are analysed, and lessons are drawn from the international experience of a panel of sixteen countries. Some proposals for the BACEN institutional framework are made.

Metas de inflação, regra de Taylor e neutralidade da moeda: uma crítica pós-keynesiana

Inflation targeting, Taylor rule and money neutrality: a post-Keynesian critic. This paper critically discusses the inflation targeting regime proposed by orthodox economists, in particular the Taylor Rule. The article describes how the Taylor Rule assumes the argument of money neutrality inherited from the Quantitative Theory of Money. It discusses critically the ways of operation of the rule, and the negative impacts of the interest rate over the potential output. In this sense, the article shows the possible vicious circles of the monetary policy when money is not neutral, as is the case for post-keynesian economists. The relation of interest rates, potential output and the output gap is illustrated in some estimates using the methodology of Vector Auto-Regressive in the Brazilian case.

Quinze anos de rigidez monetária no Brasil pós-Plano Real: uma agenda de pesquisa

Fifteen years of monetary rigidity in Brazil after the Real Plan: a research agenda.The paper makes a review of literature and a research agenda on the anomaly of Brazilian monetary policy. Following a retrospect of the first 15 years after the Real Plan, there is a review of studies aiming to explain the high real interest rate. None of the summarized theses can completely explain the phenomenon. The main research opportunities are: deepening of empirical evidence of monetary policy efficacy loss; improvement in mensuration of its inefficacy; and improvement of alternative instruments to control inflation. The field of political economy is also fertile. One should assess the relevance of oligopolies as an explaining factor of persistence of high inflation.

Convenções financeiras e a taxa básica de juros no Brasil: uma primeira aproximação

Financial conventions and basic interest rate in Brazil. This article discusses the thesis that the Brazilian interest rate is a convention, focusing on the basic interest rate under the inflation targeting regime. On the one hand, there are some complications involved in this debate. In order to show this, we consider the theoretical works that have been references for the Brazilian economists who see an interest rate convention in the country. On the other hand, despite the difficulties, it is possible to find signs of conventionality in the determination of the Brazilian basic rate, by analyzing two properties of conventions: conformity of some with the conformity of others; and arbitrariness.

CROSS-COUNTRY STUDY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF BANK FINANCIAL DISTRESS

ABSTRACTBank failures affect owners, employees, and customers, possibly causing large-scale economic distress. Thus, banks must evaluate operational risks and develop early warning systems. This study investigates bank failures in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, newly industrialized countries, the G20, and the G8. We use financial ratios to analyze and explore the appropriateness of prediction models. Results show that capital ratios, interest income compared to interest expenses, non-interest income compared to non-interest expenses, return on equity, and provisions for loan losses have significantly negative correlations with bank failure. However, loan ratios, non-performing loans, and fixed assets all have significantly positive correlations with bank failure. In addition, the accuracy of the logistic model for banks from NAFTA countries provides the best prediction accuracy regarding bank failure.

Trends of T. cruzi infection based on data from blood bank screening

Between October 1988 and April 1989 a cross-sectional survey was carried out in six out of eight blood banks of Goiânia, Central Brazil. Subjects attending for first-time blood donation in the mornings of the study period (n = 1358) were interviewed and screened for T. cruzi infection as a part of a major study among blood donors. Tests to anti-T. cruzi antibodies were performed, simultaneously, by indirect hem agglutination test (IHA) and complement fixation test (CFT). A subject was considered seropositive when any one of the two tests showed a positive result. Information on age, sex, place of birth, migration and socio-economic level was recorded. Results from this survey were compared with seroprevalence rates obtained in previous studies in an attempt to analyse trend of T. cruzi infection in an endemic urban area. The overall seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection among first-time donors was found to be 3.5% (95% confidence interval 2.5%-4.5% ). The seroprevalence rate increased with age up to 45 years and then decreased. Migrants from rural areas had higher seroprevalence rates than subjects from urban counties (1.8%-16.2% vs. 0%-3.6%). A four fold decrease in prevalence rates was observed when these rates were compared with those of fifteen years ago. Two possible hypotheses to explain this difference were suggested: 1. a cohort effect related with the decrease of transmission in rural areas and/or 2. a differential proportion of people of rural origin among blood donors between the two periods. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of epidemiological information to monitor trends of T. cruzi infection in an urban adult population was stressed.

Seroprevalence for hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection among volunteer blood donors of the Regional Blood Bank of Londrina, State of Paraná , Brazil

A cross-sectional study was carried out among 996 volunteer blood donors enrolled from May 1999 to December 1999 to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection among volunteer blood donors of the Regional Blood Bank of Londrina, State of Paraná, Brazil, and to evaluate whether the rate of seroprevalence of IgG anti-HEV antibodies is associated with sociodemographic variables and with seropositivity for hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection. All participants answered the questionnaire regarding the sociodemographic characterisitcs. Serum samples were tested for IgG antibodies to HEV (anti-HEV) by an enzyme linked immunoassay (ELISA). All serum samples positive for anti-HEV IgG and 237 serum samples negative for anti-HEV were also assayed for IgG anti-HAV antibodies by ELISA. Anti-HEV IgG was confirmed in 23/996 samples, resulting in a seroprevalence of 2.3% for HEV infection, similar to previous results obtained in developed countries. No significant association was found between the presence of anti-HEV IgG antibodies and the sociodemographic variables including gender, age, educational level, rural or urban areas, source of water, and sewer system (p > 0.05). Also, no association with seropositivity for anti-HAV IgG antibodies was observed (p > 0.05). Although this study revealed a low seroprevalence of HEV infection in the population evaluated, the results showed that this virus is circulating among the population from Londrina, South Brazil, and point out the need of further studies to define the clinical and epidemiological importance of HEV infection and to identify additional risk factors involved in the epidemiology and pathogenesis of this infection in this population.

Growth rate of a terra firme rain forest in Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period in response to logging

This paper deals with growth rates of trees > 5cm dbh over an eight-year period from 257 species at the Tapajós National Forest. The discussion is centred on the behaviour of the forest after logging. Permanent sample plots were established in 1981 and measured at the first time. The area was logged in 1982. Measurements after logging occurred in 1983, 1987 and 1989. Considering all species together, diameter increment was similar for both intensities of logging until five years after logging. Light-demanding species showed significantly higher growth rates than shade-tolerant species in the logged forest, with greater increment in the heavier treatment intensity. Commercial species also had higher growth rates in the heavier logged area, although those were significantly different only in the period from one to five years after logging. In the undisturbed forest, growth rates increased with increasing dbh size. At species level, growth rate varied between and within treatments, as well as between trees within species, depending mainly on degree of canopy opening. The logging favoured the growth of commercial species, chiefly the light-demanders. Therefore, if the same growth conditions continue being given, for example by silvicultural treatments, to those species of commercial interest, the forest would reach a stock available for harvesting around year 30 after logging. However, the high variation in increment rates indicates that an eight-year period is not sufficient to allow predictions on cutting cycles or polycyclic management systems for the study forest.

Inter-relation of sylvatic and domestic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in areas with and without domestic vectorial transmission in Minas Gerais, Brazil

During the period 1980-1986, we captured triatomine bugs and mammalian reservoir hosts from sylvatic and domestic situations in different municipalities of the State of Minas Gerais. Trypanosoma cruzi was isolated from captured bugs, mammals and patients. After cultivation in LIT medium, the electrophoretic enzyme profiles were determined. We obtained atotal of 32 parasite isolates from regions with active domestic transmission, and 24 isolates form areas under control. For the first areas the results suggest introduction of T. cruzi from sylvatic habitats, through incursion of infected opossums and/or sylvatic T. sordida, which appears to have given rise to at least one acute human infection. Of particular interest is the finding of sylvatic opossums and a T. sordida nymph infected with ZB, that could indicate return of parasites from chronic human infections to sylvatic transmission cycles. For the areas under control we also interpret the results as interaction between sylvatic and domestic cycles of transmission, here through the invasion of houses by bugs carrying the Z1 zymodeme from the sylvatic environment. The Multivariate Correspondence Analysis gives a spatial description between the different parasite isolates and confirms the existence of a bridge in the opposite direction in the region with active vectorial transmission including the exporting of Z2 through the peridomestic environment into the sylvatic cycle. For the others areas this bridge corresponds especially to Panstrongylus megistus, importing Z1 into the domestic environment.

Seed biometric parameters in oil palm accessions from a Brazilian germplasm bank

The objective of this work was to evaluate the morphological diversity of oil palm seeds and to cluster the accessions according to their morphological characteristics. Forty-one accessions from the oil palm germplasm bank of Embrapa Amazônia Ocidental were evaluated - 18 of Elaeis oleifera and 23 of E. guineensis. The groups were formed based on morphological characteristics, by principal component analysis. In E. oleifera, four groups were formed, tied to their region of origin, but with significant morphological differences between accessions from the same population. For tenera-type E. guineensis seeds, three widely divergent groups were formed, especially as to external parameters, which differentiated them from the other ones. The parameter endocarp thickness stood out in intra- and inter-population differentiation. For dura-type E. guineensis, three groups were formed, with larger seeds and thicker endocarps, which differed from all the other ones. The variability observed for seed characteristics in the analyzed accessions allows the establishment of different groups, to define strategies for genetic improvement.

Heterosis in papaya: inter and intragroup analysis

Papaya (Carica papaya L.) is a typical crop of tropical areas, and Brazil is one of the leading world producers. In recent decades, papaya culture has expanded to different regions of the country, but the number of cultivars available is still limited. In the present study, a complete diallel cross was carried out using eight accessions of papaya from the UENF/Caliman germplasm bank. Four genotypes belong to the Formosa heterotic group and four, to the Solo group. This study aimed to evaluate the occurrence and viability of exploring heterosis in heterotic intragroup hybrids. Fifty-six hybrid progenies were generated and evaluated. Among the Formosa intragroup hybrids, two hybrid combinations (MR x J4 and MR x SK) showed heterosis for all traits, as well as good average total fruit production. Among the Solo intragroup hybrids, three hybrid combinations (WM x GG, WM x SS and WM x SM) stand out for fruit production and high content of soluble solids. In Formosa x Solo hybrids, all hybrid combinations with the parent JS (JS x WM, JS x GG, JS x SS and JS x SM) showed high fruit quality and good average for fruit production. The heterotic profile of the hybrids tested allowed the identification of promising hybrids within Formosa and Solo heterotic groups. The analysis of the canonical variables also allowed the visualization of distinct groups of hybrids, depending on the provenance of the parents.

Enhancement of viability of radiosensitive (PBMC) and resistant (MDA-MB-231) clones in low-dose-rate cobalt-60 radiation therapy

AbstractObjective:In the present study, the authors investigated the in vitrobehavior of radio-resistant breast adenocarcinoma (MDA-MB-231) cells line and radiosensitive peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), as a function of different radiation doses, dose rates and postirradiation time kinetics, with a view to the interest of clinical radiotherapy.Materials and Methods:The cells were irradiated with Co-60, at 2 and 10 Gy and two different exposure rates, 339.56 cGy.min–1 and the other corresponding to one fourth of the standard dose rates, present over a 10-year period of cobalt therapy. Post-irradiation sampling was performed at pre-established kinetics of 24, 48 and 72 hours. The optical density response in viability assay was evaluated and a morphological analysis was performed.Results:Radiosensitive PBMC showed decrease in viability at 2 Gy, and a more significant decrease at 10 Gy for both dose rates. MDAMB- 231 cells presented viability decrease only at higher dose and dose rate. The results showed MDA-MB-231 clone expansion at low dose rate after 48–72 hours post-radiation.Conclusion:Low dose rate shows a possible potential clinical impact involving decrease in management of radio-resistant and radiosensitive tumor cell lines in cobalt therapy for breast cancer.