Limited-sampling strategy models for estimating the pharmacokinetic parameters of 4-methylaminoantipyrine, an active metabolite of dipyrone

Bioanalytical data from a bioequivalence study were used to develop limited-sampling strategy (LSS) models for estimating the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC) and the peak plasma concentration (Cmax) of 4-methylaminoantipyrine (MAA), an active metabolite of dipyrone. Twelve healthy adult male volunteers received single 600 mg oral doses of dipyrone in two formulations at a 7-day interval in a randomized, crossover protocol. Plasma concentrations of MAA (N = 336), measured by HPLC, were used to develop LSS models. Linear regression analysis and a "jack-knife" validation procedure revealed that the AUC0-¥ and the Cmax of MAA can be accurately predicted (R²>0.95, bias <1.5%, precision between 3.1 and 8.3%) by LSS models based on two sampling times. Validation tests indicate that the most informative 2-point LSS models developed for one formulation provide good estimates (R²>0.85) of the AUC0-¥ or Cmax for the other formulation. LSS models based on three sampling points (1.5, 4 and 24 h), but using different coefficients for AUC0-¥ and Cmax, predicted the individual values of both parameters for the enrolled volunteers (R²>0.88, bias = -0.65 and -0.37%, precision = 4.3 and 7.4%) as well as for plasma concentration data sets generated by simulation (R²>0.88, bias = -1.9 and 8.5%, precision = 5.2 and 8.7%). Bioequivalence assessment of the dipyrone formulations based on the 90% confidence interval of log-transformed AUC0-¥ and Cmax provided similar results when either the best-estimated or the LSS-derived metrics were used.

Estimating the average length of hospitalization due to pneumonia: a fuzzy approach

Exposure to air pollutants is associated with hospitalizations due to pneumonia in children. We hypothesized the length of hospitalization due to pneumonia may be dependent on air pollutant concentrations. Therefore, we built a computational model using fuzzy logic tools to predict the mean time of hospitalization due to pneumonia in children living in São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil. The model was built with four inputs related to pollutant concentrations and effective temperature, and the output was related to the mean length of hospitalization. Each input had two membership functions and the output had four membership functions, generating 16 rules. The model was validated against real data, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to evaluate model performance. The values predicted by the model were significantly correlated with real data. Sulfur dioxide and particulate matter significantly predicted the mean length of hospitalization in lags 0, 1, and 2. This model can contribute to the care provided to children with pneumonia.

Air blast freezing of fruit pulp models in commercial boxes: influence of preferential channels in the bed on freezing times estimating

The freezing times of fruit pulp models packed and conditioned in multi-layered boxes were evaluated under conditions similar to those employed commercially. Estimating the freezing time is a difficult practice due to the presence of significant voids in the boxes, whose influence may be analyzed by means of various methods. In this study, a procedure for estimating freezing time by using the models described in the literature was compared with experimental measurements by collecting time/temperature data. The following results show that the airflow through packages is a significant parameter for freezing time estimation. When the presence of preferential channels was considered, the predicted freezing time in the models could be 10% lower than the experimental values, depending on the method. The isotherms traced as a function of the location of the samples inside the boxes showed the displacement of the thermal center in relation to the geometric center of the product.

Estimating microalgae Synechococcus nidulans daily biomass concentration using neuro-fuzzy network

In this study, a neuro-fuzzy estimator was developed for the estimation of biomass concentration of the microalgae Synechococcus nidulans from initial batch concentrations, aiming to predict daily productivity. Nine replica experiments were performed. The growth was monitored daily through the culture medium optic density and kept constant up to the end of the exponential phase. The network training followed a full 3³ factorial design, in which the factors were the number of days in the entry vector (3,5 and 7 days), number of clusters (10, 30 and 50 clusters) and internal weight softening parameter (Sigma) (0.30, 0.45 and 0.60). These factors were confronted with the sum of the quadratic error in the validations. The validations had 24 (A) and 18 (B) days of culture growth. The validations demonstrated that in long-term experiments (Validation A) the use of a few clusters and high Sigma is necessary. However, in short-term experiments (Validation B), Sigma did not influence the result. The optimum point occurred within 3 days in the entry vector, 10 clusters and 0.60 Sigma and the mean determination coefficient was 0.95. The neuro-fuzzy estimator proved a credible alternative to predict the microalgae growth.

DETERMINANTS OF THE SUCCESS OF GLOBAL AND LOCAL BRANDS IN LATIN AMERICA

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to address the issue of the implementation of global and local brands in Latin America by drawing on contingency theory to develop and test hypotheses relating to how product category characteristics affect the success of global and local brands in the region. Hypotheses are tested using data obtained from top brands rankings reported in five Latin American markets (Argentina, Brazil, the Caribbean and Central America, Chile and Mexico). The study design considers estimating a logistic regression on a binomial dependent variable measuring whether 475 top brands are global or local brands, with product category characteristics as independent variables. Results reveal that product categories related to subscriptions, local tastes, high-tech, and global citizenship do have an impact on the success of global and local brands in Latin America.

Physiological age in Lutzomyia youngi (Diptera: Psychodidae) populations from an endemic area for cutaneous leishmaniasis, Venezuela

Batches of sylvatic females of Lutzomyia youngi (Phlebotominae) captured in a Shannon trap on twelve occasions over one year in a locality where subcutaneous leishmaniasis is endemic, near the city of Trujillo, Venezuela, were used to study: 1) the percentages of parous females according to previously established criteria and 2) the average number of eggs laid spontaneously by isolated females during 7 days after feeding on hamsters. The data on the batches of females captured on nights previous to the rainy period (prepluvial) were compared with those on females captured after the rains (postpluvial) . Significant differences were detected by variation analysis for two variables and different number of N, as also were consistent groupings by Duncan's Test for pre-and postpluvial lots of females. The females captured on nights prior to the rainy periods (January-March and August-September) presented higher rates of nulliparity (86-72%) and contained or laid a greater number of eggs (71-67) than those captured after the rains (March-June and November-December) which presented lower rates of nulliparity (60-24%) and a smaller number of eggs (50-30). The rainfall peaks occurred in April and September-October, respectively. It is considered that these differences can be used by epidemiological studies as a means of estimating the physiological age of female populations of L. youngy.

Detection of anti-Giardia lamblia serum antibody among children of day care centers

OBJETIVES: To detect anti-Giardia lamblia serum antibodies in healthy children attending public day care centers and to assess serological tests as tools for estimating the prevalence of G. lamblia in endemic areas. METHODS: Three separate stool specimens and filter paper blood samples were collected from 147 children ranging from 0 to 6 years old. Each stool sample was processed using spontaneous sedimentation and zinc sulfate flotation methods. Blood samples were tested by indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for Giardia IgG. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Of 147 individuals tested, 93 (63.3%) showed Giardia cysts in their feces. Using IIF and ELISA, serum antibodies were detected in 93 (63.3%) and 100 (68%) samples , respectively. Sensitivity of IIF and ELISA was 82% and 72%, respectively. However, ELISA revealed to be less specific (39%) than IIF (70%). IIF also showed a higher concordance with microscopic examination than ELISA.

Cost of schizophrenia: direct costs and use of resources in the State of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct costs of schizophrenia for the public sector. METHODS: A study was carried out in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, during 1998. Data from the medical literature and governmental research bodies were gathered for estimating the total number of schizophrenia patients covered by the Brazilian Unified Health System. A decision tree was built based on an estimated distribution of patients under different types of psychiatric care. Medical charts from public hospitals and outpatient services were used to estimate the resources used over a one-year period. Direct costs were calculated by attributing monetary values for each resource used. RESULTS: Of all patients, 81.5% were covered by the public sector and distributed as follows: 6.0% in psychiatric hospital admissions, 23.0% in outpatient care, and 71.0% without regular treatment. The total direct cost of schizophrenia was US$191,781,327 (2.2% of the total health care expenditure in the state). Of this total, 11.0% was spent on outpatient care and 79.2% went for inpatient care. CONCLUSIONS: Most schizophrenia patients in the state of São Paulo receive no regular treatment. The study findings point out to the importance of investing in research aimed at improving the resource allocation for the treatment of mental disorders in Brazil.

Prevalence of alcohol abuse and associated factors in a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of alcohol abuse/dependence and identify associated factors among demographic, family, socioeconomic and mental health variables. METHODS: A household survey was carried out in the urban area of Campinas, southeastern Brazil, in 2003. A total of 515 subjects, aged 14 years or more were randomly selected using a stratified cluster sample. The Self-Report Questionnaire and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test were used in the interview. Prevalences were calculated, and univariate and multivariate logistic analyses performed by estimating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of alcohol abuse/dependence was 13.1% (95% CI: 8.4;19.9) in men and 4.1% (95% CI: 1.9;8.6) in women. In the final multiple logistic regression model, alcohol abuse/dependence was significantly associated with age, income, schooling, religion and illicit drug use. The adjusted odds ratios were significantly higher in following variables: income between 2,501 and 10,000 dollars (OR=10.29); income above 10,000 dollars (OR=10.20); less than 12 years of schooling (OR=13.42); no religion (OR=9.16) or religion other than Evangelical (OR=4.77); and illicit drug use during lifetime (OR=4.47). Alcohol abuse and dependence patterns were different according to age group. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significantly high prevalence of alcohol abuse/dependence in this population. The knowledge of factors associated with alcohol abuse, and differences in consumption patterns should be taken into account in the development of harm reduction strategies.

HIV risk practices by female sex workers according to workplace

OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Dynamic network data envelopment analysis for university hospitals evaluation

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

Human toxocariasis: incidence among residents in the outskirts of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

With the aim of estimating the incidence of infection by Toxocara among residents in the outskirts of Campinas (State of São Paulo, Brazil) two serological surveys, using ELISA anti-Toxocara tests, were performed in January 1999 and January 2000, involving, respectively, 138 and 115 individuals, 75 of which examined in both occasions. Among this group 67 individuals did not show the presence of anti-Toxocara antibodies in 1999, and 12 presented seroconversion in the second survey, revealing an annual incidence rate of 17.9%.

SEROPREVALENCE OF CHAGASIC INFECTION IN YOUNG INDIVIDUALS IN A BLOOD CENTER IN THE STATE OF SAO PAULO, BRAZIL

SUMMARY This study aimed at estimating the number of cases of non-negative serological reactions to Chagas disease in blood donors at the Blood Center of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2003 to 2010 and at relating them to their cities of origin. Five hundred and seventy-four non-negative results for Chagas disease were evaluated. Of these, 371 (64.8%) were reagent, and 203 (35.4%) were inconclusive. The prevalence of Chagas disease in blood donors was 0.05%. There were, on average, 72 cases/year, and a prevalence of males was observed (64.8%). Forty-three (7.49%) individuals were 18 to 30 years old; 92 (16.02%) were 31 to 40; 147 (25.61%) 41 to 50, and 292 (50.87%) were older than 50 years. It was observed that 29.3% of females with reagent serology were at their fertile age (18 and 45 years). The majority of donors were originally from cities in the southwestern and central regions of São Paulo, but individuals from other states contributed with 20%. The provenance of most donors was the city of Botucatu/SP, followed by the city of Taquarituba/SP. Therefore, the profile of donors at this blood center favors the occurrence of a larger number of non-negative serological reactions. Although there has been a significant reduction in the number of new cases/year for this disease, it is still a public-health problem, and results suggest the need for new epidemiological assessments in the studied region.

Fasciola hepatica IN BOVINES IN BRAZIL: DATA AVAILABILITY AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION

Fasciolosis is a disease of importance for both veterinary and public health. For the first time, georeferenced prevalence data of Fasciola hepatica in bovines were collected and mapped for the Brazilian territory and data availability was discussed. Bovine fasciolosis in Brazil is monitored on a Federal, State and Municipal level, and to improve monitoring it is essential to combine the data collected on these three levels into one dataset. Data were collected for 1032 municipalities where livers were condemned by the Federal Inspection Service (MAPA/SIF) because of the presence of F. hepatica. The information was distributed over 11 states: Espírito Santo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Pará, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and São Paulo. The highest prevalence of fasciolosis was observed in the southern states, with disease clusters along the coast of Paraná and Santa Catarina and in Rio Grande do Sul. Also, temporal variation of the prevalence was observed. The observed prevalence and the kriged prevalence maps presented in this paper can assist both animal and human health workers in estimating the risk of infection in their state or municipality.