36 resultados para errors-in-variables model
Resumo:
(+)-Dehydrofukinone (DHF) is a major component of the essential oil of Nectandra grandiflora (Lauraceae), and exerts a depressant effect on the central nervous system of fish. However, the neuronal mechanism underlying DHF action remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate the action of DHF on GABAA receptors using a silver catfish (Rhamdia quelen) model. Additionally, we investigated the effect of DHF exposure on stress-induced cortisol modulation. Chemical identification was performed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and purity was evaluated using gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector. To an aquarium, we applied between 2.5 and 50 mg/L DHF diluted in ethanol, in combination with 42.7 mg/L diazepam. DHF within the range of 10-20 mg/L acted collaboratively in combination with diazepam, but the sedative action of DHF was reversed by 3 mg/L flumazenil. Additionally, fish exposed for 24 h to 2.5-20 mg/L DHF showed no side effects and there was sustained sedation during the first 12 h of drug exposure with 10-20 mg/L DHF. DHF pretreatment did not increase plasma cortisol levels in fish subjected to a stress protocol. Moreover, the stress-induced cortisol peak was absent following pretreatment with 20 mg/L DHF. DHF proved to be a relatively safe sedative or anesthetic, which interacts with GABAergic and cortisol pathways in fish.
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ABSTRACT The motivation for this paper stems from the steady decline in the share of consumer expenditures on goods produced in the global south, coupled with the (empirically ambiguous) Singer/Prebisch hypothesis that this can be explained by a secular decline in the southern terms of trade. Drawing on these sources of inspiration, the paper sets out to study the dynamics of the terms of trade using a multi-sector growth model based on the principle of cumulative causation. The upshot is a North-South model of growth and trade in which the evolution of the terms of trade depends on differential rates of productivity growth in different sectors of the economy - and in which terms of trade dynamics may not be the best guide as to whether or not there is an uneven development problem.
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Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.
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The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567), yearling weight (n=58,124), and scrotal circumference (n=20,371) of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM) included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R) included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.
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The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.
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In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.
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OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between tooth loss and general and central obesity among adults. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study with 1,720 adults aged 20 to 59 years from Florianópolis, Southern Brazil. Home interviews were performed and anthropometric measures were taken. Information on sociodemographic data, self-reported diabetes, self-reported number of teeth, central obesity (waist circumference [WC] > 88 cm in women and > 102 cm in men) and general obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30 kg/m²) was collected. We used multivariable Poisson regression models to assess the association between general and central obesity and tooth loss after controlling for confounders. We also performed simple and multiple linear regressions by using BMI and WC as continuous variables. Interaction between age and tooth loss was also assessed. RESULTS: The mean BMI was 25.9 kg/m² (95%CI 25.6;26.2) in men and 25.4 kg/m2 (95%CI 25.0;25.7) in women. The mean WC was 79.3 cm (95%CI 78.4;80.1) in men and 88.4 cm (95%CI 87.6;89.2) in women. A positive association was found between the presence of less than 10 teeth in at least one arch and increased mean BMI and WC after adjusting for education level, self-reported diabetes, gender and monthly per capita income. However, this association was lost when the variable age was included in the model. The prevalence of general obesity was 50% higher in those with less than 10 teeth in at least one arch when compared with those with 10 or more teeth in both arches after adjusting for education level, self-reported diabetes and monthly per capita family income. However, the statistical significance was lost after controlling for age. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity was associated with number of teeth, though it depended on the participants' age groups.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between sleep quality and quality of life of nursing professionals according to their work schedules.METHODS A prospective, cross-sectional, observational study was conducted between January and December 2010, with 264 nursing professionals, drawn from 989 subjects at Botucatu General Hospital and stratified by professional category. The Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index and the WHOQOL-bref were administered to evaluate sleep quality and quality of life, respectively. Self-reported demographic data were collected with a standard form. Continuous variables were reported as means and standard deviations, and categorical variables were expressed as proportions. Associations were evaluated using Spearman’s correlation coefficient. The association of night-shift work and gender with sleep disturbance was evaluated by logistic regression analysis using a model adjusted for age and considering sleep disturbance the dependent variable. The level of significance was p < 0.05.RESULTS Night-shift work was associated with severe worsening of at least one component of sleep quality in the model adjusted for age (OR = 1.91; 95%CI 1.04;3.50; p = 0.036). Female gender was associated with sleep disturbance (OR = 3.40; 95%CI 1.37;8.40; p = 0.008). Quality of life and quality of sleep were closely correlated (R = -0.56; p < 0.001).CONCLUSIONS Characteristics of the nursing profession affect sleep quality and quality of life, and these two variables are associated.
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Recruitment of a specific cell population after Leishmania infection can influence the outcome of the disease. Cellular migration in response to Leishmania or vector saliva has been reported in air pouch model, however, cellular migration induced by Leishmania associated with host's blood and vector saliva in this model has not been described. Herein we investigated cellular migration into air pouch of hamster after stimulation with combination of L. chagasi and host's blood and Lutzomyia longipalpis saliva. Migration induced by saliva was 3-fold more than those induced by L. chagasi alone. Additionally, L. chagasi associated with blood and saliva induced significantly even more leukocytes into air pouch than Leishmania alone. L. chagasi recruited a diverse cell population; however, most of these cells seem to have not migrated to the inflammatory exudate, remaining in the pouch lining tissue. These results indicate that L. chagasi can reduce leukocyte accumulation to the initial site of infection, and when associated with vector saliva in the presence of blood components, increase the influx of more neutrophils than macrophages, suggesting that the parasite has developed a strategy to minimize the initial inflammatory response, allowing an unlimited progression within the host. This work reinforces the importance of studies on the salivary components of sand fly vectors of leishmaniasis in the transmission process and the establishment of the infection.
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Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) is caused by the dimorphic fungus Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb) and corresponds to prevalent systemic mycosis in Latin America. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the dose response effect of the fungal yeast phase for the standardization of an experimental model of septic arthritis. The experiments were performed with groups of 14 rats that received doses of 103, 104 or 105 P. brasiliensis (Pb18) cells. The fungi were injected in 50 µL of phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) directly into the knee joints of the animals. The following parameters were analyzed in this work: the formation of swelling in knees infused with yeast cells and the radiological and anatomopathological alterations, besides antibody titer by ELISA. After 15 days of infection, signs of inflammation were evident. At 45 days, some features of damage and necrosis were observed in the articular cartilage. The systemic dissemination of the fungus was observed in 11% of the inoculated animals, and it was concluded that the experimental model is able to mimic articular PCM in humans and that the dose of 105 yeast cells can be used as standard in this model.
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New therapeutic alternatives against leishmaniasis remain a priority. The activity of azithromycin against Leishmania (Leishmania) major has been previously demonstrated. Different responses among species of Leishmania make species-specific drug screening necessary. The activity of azithromycin against Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis was evaluated in golden hamsters infected through footpad injections of metacyclic promastigotes, and compared with untreated controls and animals treated with meglumine antimoniate. Footpad thickness, lesion cultures and dissemination sites were analyzed. Treatment of golden hamsters with oral azithromycin at 450mg/kg had no activity against infections with Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis. For infections due to Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis, azithromycin demonstrated significant activity relative to untreated controls, but inferior to meglumine antimoniate, for controlling lesion size. Neither drug was able to totally eliminate parasites from the lesions. It was concluded that azithromycin has activity against Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis but not against Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in this model.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.
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Significant decrease in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vertical transmission has been observed worldwide in centers where interventions such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), elective cesarean section, and avoidance of breastfeeding have been implemented. This prospective cohort study aimed to assess the determinants of and the temporal trends in HIV-1 vertical transmission in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Brazil from January 1998 to December 2005. The rate of HIV-1 vertical transmission decreased from 20% in 1998 to 3% in 2005. This decline was associated with increased use of more complex ART regimens during pregnancy. Multivariate analysis restricted to clinical variables demonstrated that non ART, neonatal respiratory distress/sepsis and breastfeeding were independently associated with HIV-1 vertical transmission. When laboratory parameters were included in the model, high maternal viral load and non maternal ART were associated with HIV-1 vertical transmission. The results from this study confirm the impact of ART in the reduction of HIV-1 vertical transmission and indicate the need for improvement in the care and monitoring of mother and infant pairs affected by HIV-1.
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Leptospirosis in humans usually involves hypokalaemia and hypomagnesaemia and the putative mechanism underlying such ionic imbalances may be related to nitric oxide (NO) production. We previously demonstrated the correlation between serum levels of NO and the severity of renal disease in patients with severe leptospirosis. Methylene blue inhibits soluble guanylyl cyclase (downstream of the action of any NO synthase isoforms) and was recently reported to have beneficial effects on clinical and experimental sepsis. We investigated the occurrence of serum ionic changes in experimental leptospirosis at various time points (4, 8, 16 and 28 days) in a hamster model. We also determined the effect of methylene blue treatment when administered as an adjuvant therapy, combined with late initiation of standard antibiotic (ampicillin) treatment. Hypokalaemia was not reproduced in this model: all of the groups developed increased levels of serum potassium (K). Furthermore, hypermagnesaemia, rather than magnesium (Mg) depletion, was observed in this hamster model of acute infection. These findings may be associated with an accelerated progression to acute renal failure. Adjuvant treatment with methylene blue had no effect on survival or serum Mg and K levels during acute-phase leptospirosis in hamsters.
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Prolonged culturing of many microorganisms leads to the loss of virulence and a reduction of their infective capacity. However, little is known about the changes in the pathogenic strains of Acanthamoeba after long culture periods. Our study evaluated the effect of prolonged culturing on the invasiveness of different isolates of Acanthamoeba in an in vivo rat model. ATCC strains of Acanthamoeba, isolates from the environment and clinical cases were evaluated. The in vivo model was effective in establishing the infection and differentiating the pathogenicity of the isolates and re-isolates. The amoebae cultured in the laboratory for long periods were less virulent than those that were recently isolated, confirming the importance of passing Acanthamoeba strains in animal models.