A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.

Towards a Unified Theory of Health-Disease: I. Health as a complex model-object

Theory building is one of the most crucial challenges faced by basic, clinical and population research, which form the scientific foundations of health practices in contemporary societies. The objective of the study is to propose a Unified Theory of Health-Disease as a conceptual tool for modeling health-disease-care in the light of complexity approaches. With this aim, the epistemological basis of theoretical work in the health field and concepts related to complexity theory as concerned to health problems are discussed. Secondly, the concepts of model-object, multi-planes of occurrence, modes of health and disease-illness-sickness complex are introduced and integrated into a unified theoretical framework. Finally, in the light of recent epistemological developments, the concept of Health-Disease-Care Integrals is updated as a complex reference object fit for modeling health-related processes and phenomena.

Model for the evaluation of drug-dispensing services in primary health care

OBJECTIVE To develop a model for evaluating the efficacy of drug-dispensing service in primary health care. METHODS An efficacy criterion was adopted to determine the level of achievement of the service objectives. The evaluation model was developed on the basis of a literature search and discussions with experts. The applicability test of the model was conducted in 15 primary health care units in the city of Florianópolis, state of Santa Catarina, in 2010, and data were recorded in structured and pretested questionnaires. RESULTS The model developed was evaluated using five dimensions of analysis for analysis. The model was suitable for evaluating service efficacy and helped to identify the critical points of each service dimension. CONCLUSIONS Adaptations to the data collection technique may be required to adjust for the reality and needs of each situation. The evaluation of the drug-dispensing service should promote adequate access to medications supplied through the public health system.

Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

Increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique, 2014: epidemic or new endemic pattern?

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique. METHODS Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014, in Mozambique with national weekly epidemiological bulletin data. I analyzed the number of recorded cases in the 2009-2013 period, which led to the creation of an endemic channel using the quartile and C-Sum methods. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for the first half of 2014, making it possible to determine the pattern of endemicity. Months in which the incidence rates exceeded the third quartile or line C-sum were declared as epidemic months. RESULTS The provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, and Inhambane accounted for 52.7% of all cases in the first half of 2014. Also during this period, the provinces of Nampula, Sofala and Tete were responsible for 54.9% of the deaths from malaria. The incidence rates of malaria in children, and in all ages, have showed patterns in the epidemic zone. For all ages, the incidence rate has peaked in April (2,573 cases/100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSIONS The results suggest the occurrence of an epidemic pattern of malaria in the first half of 2014 in Mozambique. It is strategic to have a more accurate surveillance at all levels (central, provincial and district) to target prevention and control interventions in a timely manner.

Prevention of electrocardiographic and histopathologic alterations in the murine model of Chagas' disease by preinoculation of an attenuated Trypanosoma cruzi strain

The effects of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi on the electrocardiographic tracings of mice were studied in 4.groups of animals: (1) normal; (2) infected with a pathogenic T. cruzi strain (TS COB); (3) immunized with 3 intraperitoneal inocula of 10(6) attenuated T. cruzi epimastigotes (TCC) and (4) immunized-infected, which sequentially received the treatments of groups 3 and 2. Infection and protection were confirmed by xenodiagnosis and histopathology. Isolated alterations such as extrasystolia, 1st degree atrioventricular block, arrhythmia and ST elevation were observed in normal as well as infected mice. However, tracings taken repeatedly on each mouse over a 293 day period revealed a set of alterations which were more frequently seen in infected (14/22) than in normal (4/27) animals (p = 0.00048). These alterations consisted of supraventricular tachycardia, sinus bradycardia and persisting, first degree AV blocks, often associated to pacemaker changes. Inoculation of attenuated T. cruzi (group 3) did not increase these alterations (2/27 mice) but significantly prevented their development after challenge with the pathogenic strain (1/19 versus 14/22 mice, p = 0.000095). Thus, preimmunization reduced not only parasitemia but also a pathogenic consequence of T. cruzi infection. This evidence is relevant for immunoprevention studies against Chagas' disease.

Activity of two different triazoles in a murine model of paracoccidioidomycosis

A new orally absorbable triazole (Schering 39304) with a long serum half-life in man (60 hours), was tried in a murine model of progressive paracoccidioidomycosis and compared with itraconazole, another triazole which has proven effective in this mycosis. Only 15% of the infected, untreated mice survived while 53 to 75% of the animals receiving itraconazole survived. Mice treated with Schering 39304 exhibited higher (86 - 100%) survival rates. Statistically, the 5 mg/kg Sch 39304 was superior to the 50 mg/kg itraconazole dose. Lung cultures showed that 20 mg/kg/day of Sch achieved sterilization of the infectious foci. These results indicate that the new triazole will have a place in the treatment of paracoccidioidomycosis

Gastric acid secretion response in the Cebus apella: a monkey model of chronic Chagas disease

The objective was to study the secretory pattern, both basal and stimulated either by histamine (0.1 mg/kg) or pentagastrin (64 ug/kg) in eighteen Cebus apella monkeys chronically infected with different T. cruzi strains (CA1, n=10; Colombian, n=4 and Tulahuen, n=4) and to describe the morphological findings in the gastrointestinal tract in twelve infected (6 sacrificed and 6 spontaneously dead) and four healthy monkeys. All infected monkeys and 35 healthy ones were evaluated by contrast X-ray examination. No differences were observed in basal acid output between control and infected groups. Animals infected with the Tulahuen and Colombian strains showed significant lower values of peak acid output in response to histamine or pentagastrin (p<0.01 and p<0.05 respectively; "t" test) in comparison to the controls. Barium contrast studies showed enlargement and dilatation of the colon in three infected animals. Histopathological lesions were seen in 75% of the autopsied animals either in colon alone (33%) or both, in colon and esophagus (42%). The normal secretion observed in the CA1 infected group could be due to a lower virulence of the strain, a lower esophagic tropism or the necessity of a longer post-infection time to cause lesions.

Transmission of Schistosoma mansoni under experimental conditions using the bovine - Biomphalaria glabrata - bovine model

Three calves experimentally infected with Schistosoma mansoni, and passing viable eggs in feces, as well as 5 normal calves (coming from a non-endemic area for schistosomiasis) kept as controls, were maintained in an enclosure (850 m² in area). In this enclosure, a tank with water received 500 laboratory reared Biomphalaria glabrata. All the control calves were infected for a period ranging from 79 to 202 days after the beginning of the experiment, and afterwards presented viable S. mansoni eggs in feces. The mean worm recovery was 555. The snail population increased throughout the experimental period, showing a high number of B. glabrata infected with S. mansoni (42% on average). According to the present study, bovine has been suggested as having potentially a role in the maintenance of the life cycle of S. mansoni

Dengue epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: virological and epidemiological aspects

Laboratorial studies were carried out on 3178 patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of dengue infection from April 1986 to December 1987 in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The epidemic had two peaks following the first virus isolation and affected the inhabitants of 17 counties. Both sex and all age groups were affected. Dengue virus type 1 was isolated from 1039 sera and the number of confirmed cases was increased to 1874 (59%) by MAC-ELISA. Isolation rate confirmed cases reached 80% in the specimens obtained until the 4th day after the onset of disease and viraemia ranged from 10 3.0 to 10(8.5) TCID50/ml.

Vibrios among patients of good socioeconomic conditions during the cholera epidemic in Recife, Brazil

Between March and July, 1992, we screened for Vibrio all fecal samples submitted for bacteriologic diagnosis at a private clinical laboratory in Recife. Of 1435 cultures examined only 1 (0.07%) was positive for V.cholerae 01, biovar Eltor, serovar Inaba, but 17 (1.2%) yielded non-cholera Vibrio (V.cholerae non-01; V.fluvialis; V.furnissii, V.parahaemolyticus and Vibrio spp). Thus, V.cholerae 01, differently of other enteropathogenic vibrios, spared individuals of good socioeconomic conditions even during the cholera epidemic, which made hundreds of victims in the neighboring slums.

Epidemic dengue 4 in the Yucatán, México, 1984

An outbreak of dengue 4 occurred in the Yucatán, México in 1984. During the course of the outbreak, 538 of 5486 reported cases of dengue-like illness were studied; 200 were confirmed as dengue serologically and/or virologically. Dengue 4 virus was isolated from 34 patients and dengue 1 from one. Severe haemorrhagic symptoms were observed in 9 laboratory confirmed patients, including four deaths. Thus, the outbreak in Yucatán is the second dengue epidemic in the Americas after the Cuban epidemic in 1981 in which a number of patients suffered from haemorrhagic complications. It was notable that 5 of 9 hospitalized, severe cases were young adults and that only one met the WHO criteria of DHF, in contrast to primary pediatric nature of DHF in Southeast Asia. In this paper we describe clinical, serologic, and virologic studies conducted during the outbreak.