Artificial neural network models for predicting 1-year mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures in China

The mortality rate of older patients with intertrochanteric fractures has been increasing with the aging of populations in China. The purpose of this study was: 1) to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) using clinical information to predict the 1-year mortality of elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures, and 2) to compare the ANN's predictive ability with that of logistic regression models. The ANN model was tested against actual outcomes of an intertrochanteric femoral fracture database in China. The ANN model was generated with eight clinical inputs and a single output. ANN's performance was compared with a logistic regression model created with the same inputs in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and discriminability. The study population was composed of 2150 patients (679 males and 1471 females): 1432 in the training group and 718 new patients in the testing group. The ANN model that had eight neurons in the hidden layer had the highest accuracies among the four ANN models: 92.46 and 85.79% in both training and testing datasets, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the automatically selected ANN model for both datasets were 0.901 (95%CI=0.814-0.988) and 0.869 (95%CI=0.748-0.990), higher than the 0.745 (95%CI=0.612-0.879) and 0.728 (95%CI=0.595-0.862) of the logistic regression model. The ANN model can be used for predicting 1-year mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fractures. It outperformed a logistic regression on multiple performance measures when given the same variables.

Long-term efficacy of a rural community-based integrated intervention for prevention and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cluster randomized controlled trial in China's rural areas

This study aimed to assess the efficacy of a rural community-based integrated intervention for early prevention and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China. This 18-year cluster-randomized controlled trial encompassing 15 villages included 1008 patients (454 men and 40 women in the intervention group [mean age, 54 ± 10 years]; 482 men and 32 women in the control group [mean age, 53 ± 10 years]) with confirmed COPD or at risk for COPD. Villages were randomly assigned to the intervention or the control group, and study participants residing within the villages received treatment accordingly. Intervention group patients took part in a program that included systematic health education, smoking cessation counseling, and education on management of COPD. Control group patients received usual care. The groups were compared after 18 years regarding the incidence of COPD, decline in lung function, and mortality of COPD. COPD incidence was lower in the intervention group than in the control group (10% vs 16%, <0.05). A decline in lung function was also significantly delayed in the intervention group compared to the control group of COPD and high-risk patients. The intervention group showed significant improvement in smoking cessation compared with the control group, and smokers in the intervention group had lower smoking indices than in the control group (350 vs 450, <0.05). The intervention group also had a significantly lower cumulative COPD-related death rate than the control group (37% vs 47%, <0.05). A rural community-based integrated intervention is effective in reducing the incidence of COPD among those at risk, delaying a decline in lung function in COPD patients and those at risk, and reducing mortality of COPD.

Swords into ploughshares? China's Soft Power strategy in Southeast Asia and its challenges1

Since the 1990s, alongside China's economic growth, the international community has fostered a general anxiety towards a "China threat." In order to relieve itself from suspicion, China adopted the dual strategies of "harmonious worldview" and "good neighbor policy." The strategies led to the use of soft power in China's foreign policy. China aimed to reduce security concerns implied by the threat theory by supporting an image that caters to international peace and development. This article seeks to explain how China achieves its interests in Southeast Asia through the use of soft power. The authors address the concepts of "harmonious worldview" and "good neighbor policy" and how the twin strategies and soft power have shaped China's foreign policy in recent years. This article aims to provide insights into China's policy options in Southeast Asia in the near future.

Sexual behaviour and stridulation during mating in Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

Factors affecting mating behaviour in the bug Triatoma infestans were quantitatively studied in the laboratory. Experimental conditions were established so that the probability of copulation increased with the time elapsed since the first adult meal. Copulatory attempts by males did not vary as a function of time, but rejections by females became significantly less frequent with the post feeding time. Non-receptive females displayed four types of rejection behaviour, i.e. flattening, stridulation, evasion and abdominal movements. The occurrence of stridulation performed by females in a sexual context was observed in a regular fashion and was quantified for the first time in this species.

Frequency of primary glomerular disease in northeastern China

Most frequently reported Chinese renal biopsy data have originated from southeastern China. The present study analyzed the renal biopsy data from northeastern China. The records of 1550 consecutive native patients who were diagnosed with primary glomerular diseases (PGD) after renal biopsy at our hospital during 2005-2009 were used. These patients were divided into four age groups for stratified analysis: <15, 15-44, 45-59, and ≥60 years old. Among PGD, minimal change disease (MCD) was the most common histologically diagnosed disease (30.7%), followed by IgA nephropathy (IgAN), mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis (MsPGN), membranous nephropathy (MN), membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (MPGN), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), and endocapillary proliferative glomerulonephritis (EnPGN). MCD was the disease most frequently observed (43.7%) in the <15-year-old group. MsPGN was the most common disease in the elderly group (38.1%). MsPGN was more prevalent in females (27.8%), whereas MCD was more prevalent in males (35.3%). Primary glomerular diseases constituted the most commonly encountered group of diseases with a high prevalence of MCD, which predominantly affected males and young adults. The prevalence of MCD was high in northeastern China. Further study is necessary to expand the epidemiologic data available for renal disease in China.

A time series analysis of meteorological factors and hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease in the Northern district of Guizhou Province, China

Findings on the effects of weather on health, especially the effects of ambient temperature on overall morbidity, remain inconsistent. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of meteorological factors (mainly air temperature) on daily hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Zunyi City, China, from January 1, 2007 to November 30, 2009. We used the generalized additive model with penalized splines to analyze hospital outpatient admissions, climatic parameters, and covariate data. Results show that, in Zunyi, air temperature was associated with hospital outpatient admission for CVD. When air temperature was less than 10°C, hospital outpatient admissions for CVD increased 1.07-fold with each increase of 1°C, and when air temperature was more than 10°C, an increase in air temperature by 1°C was associated with a 0.99-fold decrease in hospital outpatient admissions for CVD over the previous year. Our analyses provided statistically significant evidence that in China meteorological factors have adverse effects on the health of the general population. Further research with consistent methodology is needed to clarify the magnitude of these effects and to show which populations and individuals are vulnerable.

Relationship between pulmonary function and indoor air pollution from coal combustion among adult residents in an inner-city area of southwest China

Few studies evaluate the amount of particulate matter less than 2.5 mm in diameter (PM2.5) in relation to a change in lung function among adults in a population. The aim of this study was to assess the association of coal as a domestic energy source to pulmonary function in an adult population in inner-city areas of Zunyi city in China where coal use is common. In a cross-sectional study of 104 households, pulmonary function measurements were assessed and compared in 110 coal users and 121 non-coal users (≥18 years old) who were all nonsmokers. Several sociodemographic factors were assessed by questionnaire, and ventilatory function measurements including forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), the FEV1/FVC ratio, and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) were compared between the 2 groups. The amount of PM2.5 was also measured in all residences. There was a significant increase in the relative concentration of PM2.5 in the indoor kitchens and living rooms of the coal-exposed group compared to the non-coal-exposed group. In multivariate analysis, current exposure to coal smoke was associated with a 31.7% decrease in FVC, a 42.0% decrease in FEV1, a 7.46% decrease in the FEV1/FVC ratio, and a 23.1% decrease in PEFR in adult residents. The slope of lung function decrease for Chinese adults is approximately a 2-L decrease in FVC, a 3-L decrease in FEV1, and an 8 L/s decrease in PEFR per count per minute of PM2.5 exposure. These results demonstrate the harmful effects of indoor air pollution from coal smoke on the lung function of adult residents and emphasize the need for public health efforts to decrease exposure to coal smoke.

Research on the quality of the wine grapes in corridor area of China

The corridor area of Gansu Province is one of the most important wine grape growing regions in China, and this strip of land results in a significant difference in terms of terroir between its regions. Chemical composition and antioxidant capacity of the main wine grape varieties (Vitis vinifera L.) cultivated in the corridor area of Gansu Province in northwest China were compared. Three regions (Zhangye, Wuwei, and Jiayuguan) were selected to explain the influence of soil and climate conditions on the quality of wine grapes. This study aims to investigate the effect of different regions on berry composition and antioxidant capacity, providing a general evaluation of red and white wine grapes quality in the corridor area of China. The results showed that ‘Merlot’ grapes grown in Zhangye had the best quality among the different varieties in the three regions of Gansu evaluated. The moderate temperature and nitrogen deficiency were associated with improved fruit quality. It was identified that the most suitable grape variety from Zhangye is ‘Merlot’, and that ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ and ‘Italian Resling’ are the most suitable varieties from Wuwei and Jiayuguan, respectively.