Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

Influence of temperature on development of Schistosoma mansoni female cercariae in Biomphalaria glabrata

In these experiments the ratio of male to female S. mansoni larvae in D. glabrata from Belo Horizonte and Ribeirão das Neves Minas Gerais, Brazil, either reared in laboratoty or collected in the field, varied from 1:1 to 1:1.3 or 1.4:1. Cercariae of LE strain of Schistosoma mansoni, shed by 39 snails maintained at 25±0.5ºC were used to infect mice on a weekly basis. Subsequent perfusion resulted in 76.6% male and 23.4% female worms. The cercariac produced by 32 infected snails maintained at 27+0.5°C were inoculated into mice and produced 43.4% male and 56.6% female worms (p<0.05). Cercariae eliminated by snails collected in Barreiro and Ressaca, Belo Horizonte, during hot months, produced 45.7 to 47.7% male and 52.3 to 54.3% female worms. A lower number of cercariae shed by snails collected in Gorduras, Belo Horizonte, at 20+3.0°C, produced 51.6% male and 48.4% female worms. Thus, in this region the infection of vertebrate hosts with S. mansoni cercariae would be more severe in the summer due to the higher level of parasites and the number of eggs.

The effect of temperature on mobility of Angiostrongylus costaricensis third stage larvae

Third stage larvae (L3) from Angiostrongylus costaricensis were incubated in water at room temperature and at 5 ° C and their mobility was assessed daily for 17 days. Viability was associated with the mobility and position of the L3, and it was confirmed by inoculation per os in albino mice. The number of actively moving L3 sharply decreased within 3 to 4 days, but there were some infective L3 at end of observation. A mathematical model estimated 80 days as the time required to reduce the probability of infective larvae to zero. This data does not support the proposition of refrigerating vegetables and raw food as an isolated procedure for prophylaxis of human abdominal angiostrongylosis infection.

Mortality of Dipetalogaster maximus (uhler) in response to temperature and humidity

Observations were made on the mortality of Dipetalogaster maximus in relation to humidity and temperature in controlled conditions. The bugs survived longer at higher relative humidities and at lower temperatures, but when these results were plotted against vapour pressure déficit, no independent temperature effect was seen. The results may be explained by thefaster depletion of water reserves at higher vapour pressure deficits. D. maximus did not increase its resistance to water vapour transferat higher vapour pressure deficits. In orderto increase survival rates when D. maximus is used for xenodiagnosis in field conditions it should be protected against high temperatures and low humidities.

Life cycle and reproductive patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria (Blanchard, 1843) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under constant and fluctuating conditions of temperature and humidity

The aim of this study was to evaluate the temperature and relative humidity influence in the life cycle, mortality and fecundity patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria. Four cohorts with 60 recently laid eggs each were conformed. The cohorts were divided into two groups. In the controlled conditions group insects were maintained in a dark climatic chamber under constant temperature and humidity, whereas triatomines of the ambiental temperature group were maintained at room temperature. Average incubation time was 15.6 days in the controlled conditions group and 19.1 days in the ambiental temperature. In group controlled conditions the time from egg to adult development lasted 10 months while group ambiental temperature took four months longer. Egg eclosion rate was 99.1% and 98.3% in controlled conditions and ambiental temperature, respectively. Total nymphal mortality in controlled conditions was 52.6% whereas in ambiental temperature was 51.8%. Mean number of eggs/female was 817.6 controlled conditions and 837.1 ambiental temperature. Fluctuating temperature and humidity promoted changes in the life cycle duration and in the reproductive performance of this species, although not in the species mortality.

Relationship between rainfall and temperature: observations on the cases of visceral leishmaniasis in São Luis Island, State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem that requires global control strategies, especially with respect to factors that may intervene in reducing the incidence of endemicity. In this work, rainfall density and temperature were correlated with the incidence of human cases in an area endemic for leishmaniasis in São Luis do Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS: Notification of human cases by the National Health Foundation/Regional Coordination of Maranhão (FUNASA/COREMA) from 2002 to 2010 was used. Ecological data (mean temperature and rainfall density) were provided by the Meteorological Office of State. RESULTS: A significant association was verified between the number of VL cases and rainfall rate but not in the analysis concerning mean temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the control actions in visceral leishmaniasis should be performed during rainy season in the State of Maranhão, which is in the first half of the year.

Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis.

Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of bacillary dysentery in Guangzhou, Southern China

Introduction The control of bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big challenge for China. Methods Negative binomial multivariable regression was used to study relationships between meteorological variables and the occurrence of BD during the period of 2006-2012. Results Each 1°C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 3.60% (95%CI, 3.03% to 4.18%) in the monthly number of BD cases, whereas a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of BD cases by 2.85% (95%CI = 3.34% to 2.37% decrease). Conclusions Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of BD in Guangzhou.

Temperature influence and social interaction on the frequency of electric organ discharges in Rhamphicthys rostratus.

The frequency of electric organ discharges (EOD) of a gymnotiform fish of "pulse" frequency (40-100 Hz) from South America - Ramphicthys rostratuswas studied. The animals were settled in pairs in a aquarium and thus observed: variation in EOD frequency had at least two components: one more positively correlated with temperature, another less positively correlated due to social interaction.

Local diversity of tropical and temperature ant faunas (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

Qualitative and quantitative collections of ants made in the region of Manaus, Brazil (evergreen tropical humid forest), and in western North Carolina, USA (deciduous temperate/wet forest), were undertaken to investigate. latitudinal patterns of ant diversity and community organization on regional and local scales. We have found to date 307 ant species in the Municipality of Manaus. Totals ranging from 134 to 270+ species have been reported in the literature for other tropical regions of less than 10,000km2. In contrast, temperate ant surveys generally report only SO to 150 species in similar or larger areas. Sampling at sardine baits set 10m apart on square grids, we found forest ecosystems near Manaus to be much richer and more diverse in ants than those sampled in North Carolina: 28 species vs. 5-10 species in 50 collections and 16 vs. 3 previously unrecorded species discovered with each doubling of sample size. Room's (1975a) results from climatically simllar Papua New Guinea forest agree closely with those from Manaus. We suggest that one important factor contributing to the increased diversity of tropical, omnivorous ants may be greater variety of nest sites available for specialization.

FOOD CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON LIFE CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CLADOCERA (Daphnia gessneri Herbst, Diaphanosoma sarsi Richard, Moina reticulata (Daday)): I. DEVELOPMENT TIME

The effects of food concentration and temperature on embryonic and postem-bryonic duration of three tropical species, Daphnia gessneri(1.5mm), Diaphanosoma sarsi(1.2mm) and Moina reticulata(0.8mm), were investigated as part of life cycle studies which included growth, body size and reproduction. These are the very first experimental studies undertaken on these species. The long-term growth experiments were performed under controlled laboratory conditions at all combinations of temperature (22"C, 27"C and 32"C) and constant food concentration (0.03, 0.05, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50 and 1.00 mgC/L) of the unicellular green alga Scenedesmus acutus.Animals were examined twice daily throughout their life cycle from the neonate to third adult instar. In all three species, temperature exerted the most powerful influence on embryonic duration but there was also a smaller food effect. In D. gessneri,postembry-onic durations remained more or less the same at food levels 0.25 mgC/L but were influenced by temperature. At food concentrations of 0.1 mgC/L or lower, postembryonic durations became increasingly prolonged, particularly at high temperatures. This threshold concentration is affected by temperature: in D. gessneri,it was 0.1 mgC/L at 22oC and 27oC but higher at 32oC (between 0.25 and 0.50 mgC/L). At the same temperature of 27oC, the food threshold level varied between species: it was higher (0.25 mgC/L) for D. sarsiand lower (0.05 mgC/L) for M. reticulatacompared with D. gessneri(0.1 mgC/L). In both embryonic and postembryonic durations there is a body size effect as the absolute durations were longest in the largest species and shortest in the smallest species In all three species, prolongation of postembryonic duration at combinations of high temperature and lowered food levels was accompanied by increased number of juvenile instars.

Preliminary observations on the effect of sudden changes of temperature on survival of young Matrinxã (Brycon cephalus) under laboratory conditions

Matrinxã is a very promising amazonian fish for fish culture in Brazil. This study is aimed at determining the approximate tolerated temperature range in this species. Groups of ten young matrinxã specimens (15.1±0.8 cm average length and 58.3±10.3 g average weight) were subjected to 9 different temperatures for 24 hours without previous acclimation. Fish were transferred from an initial temperature of 27ºC to those ranging from 12 to 39ºC at 3ºC intervals. Both 12ºC and 39ºC temperatures were lethal for this species with 100% mortality rate. Following 2 minutes of exposure to 39ºC fish changed behavior, showing an increase in opercular movements and erratic swimming; mortality reached 100% after 18 minutes. At 12ºC, fish lost equilibrium immediately after exposure and started swimming erratically; after only 4 minutes fish became lethargic and remained immobile on the bottom of the tank. Total mortality was only evident following 24 hours. At 15ºC matrinxã lost equilibrium after 5 to 6 minutes of exposure but mortality was only 20% after 24 hours. Fish tolerated well temperatures ranging from 18 to 36ºC with 100% survival after 24 hours. This preliminary study suggests that temperatures between 18 and 36ºC are the approximate range normally tolerated by this species, although survival at other temperatures may be increased by gradually acclimating fish to the more severe increases or decreases in temperature. In addition, it indicates that matrinxã may be cultivated over a wide geographical area.

Tolerance to temperature, pH, ammonia and nitrite in cardinal tetra, Paracheirodon axelrodi, an amazonian ornamental fish

Poor water quality condition has been pointed out as one of the major causes for the high mortality of ornamental fishes exported from the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The purpose of the current study was to define water quality standards for cardinal tetra (Paracheirodon axelrodi), by establishing the lower and higher for lethal temperature (LT50), lethal concentration (LC50) for total ammonia and nitrite and LC50 for acid and alkaline pH. According to the findings, cardinal tetra is rather tolerant to high temperature (33.3 ºC), to a wide pH range (acid pH=2.9 and alkaline pH=8.8) and to high total ammonia concentration (23.7 mg/L). However, temperatures below 19.6 ºC and nitrite concentrations above 1.1 mg/L NO2- may compromise fish survival especially during long shipment abroad.

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.