INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

The role of K121Q ENPP1 polymorphism in diabetes mellitus and its complications

The aim of the present study was to analyze the frequency of K121Q polymorphism in the ENPP1 gene of Brazilian subjects according to ethnic origin and to determine its possible association with diabetes mellitus (DM) and/or diabetic complications. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 1027 type 2 DM patients and 240 anonymous blood donors (BD). Ethnicity was classified based on self-report of European and African descent. The Q allele frequency was increased in African descendant type 2 DM patients (KK = 25.9%, KQ = 48.2%, and QQ = 25.9%) and BD (KK = 22.0%, KQ = 53.8%, and QQ = 24.2%) compared to European descendant type 2 DM patients (KK = 62.7%, KQ = 33.3%, and QQ = 4.1%) and BD (KK = 61.0%, KQ = 35.6%, and QQ = 3.4%). However, there was no difference in genotype distribution or Q allele frequency between diabetic and non-diabetic subjects (European descendants: DM = 0.21 vs BD = 0.21, P = 0.966, and African descendants: DM = 0.50 vs BD = 0.51, P = 0.899). In addition, there were no differences in clinical, laboratory or insulin resistance indices among the three genotypes. The prevalence of DM complications was also similar. In conclusion, K121Q polymorphism is more common among Afro-Brazilian descendants regardless of glycemic status or insulin sensitivity indices. Likewise, insulin sensitivity and DM chronic complications appear not to be related to the polymorphism in this sample.

Main food sources of carotenoids, according to the purpose and degree of processing, for beneficiaries of the 'Bolsa Família' in Brazil

The intake of carotenoids is associated with antioxidant properties and some of these substances have activity of pro-vitamin A. This study aimed to estimate the intake of carotenoids (average values) by the Brazilian population focusing on beneficiaries of the 'Bolsa Família' Program and identify the dietary sources, according to the purpose and degree of processing and the inclusion of food additives. The database used is the personal food consumption module of the Household Budget Survey of 2008-2009, conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The content of carotenoids in foods was obtained primarily from a National data source. Food products were classified into three categories: 1) fresh and minimally processed foods; 2) processed foods (containing food additives, except for flavoring and coloring agents); and 3) highly processed foods (containing flavoring and coloring agents). Insufficient intakes were identified for the conditional cash transfer program beneficiaries (3,547.1 µg). Fresh and minimally processed foods supplied between 48.6% (for girls) and 65.7% (for male adults) of pro-vitamin carotenoids. Processed foods were sources of between 55.5% and 57.0% of lutein + zeaxanthin for elderly and between 58.0% and 67.8% of lycopene for adults. Highly processed foods contributed to less than 5.0% of total carotenoids.

Estrutura de propriedade e de controle das empresas de capital aberto no Brasil

This paper has as its main objective to measure the magnitude of deviations between control rights and cash-flow rights for the ultimate shareholder with the largest voting rights of limited liability companies in Brazil. Furthermore, it pinpoints how these discrepancies are generated, evaluating the relative importance of the issuance of preferred stocks with no voting rights, pyramidal arrangements of ownership, and cross-shareholdings. The data set embraces 602 companies that in 2001 complied with the mandatory requirement of filing to the CVM.

Trabalho infantil e o status ocupacional dos pais

Child labor and the parents' status of employment. The objective of this paper is to verify the hypothesis of the effect of the status of employment of the head of the family on the occurrence of child labor, as well as to analyze other characteristics which can influence such behavior. A probit model was used to realize the statistical tests. The results ratify the hypothesis proposed that the families whose head works as an independent worker show higher probability for the occurrence of child labor than those whose head works as a formal salaried worker. Among other results, it must be highlighted, making simulations, that increasing parents' schooling is more efficient than augmenting income to reduce the use of child labor. These results endorse the proposition that the status of employment should be used, complementing the criteria of income per capita, to select families in the cash transfers programmes or others to eradicate child labor.