31 resultados para Zero-inflated Count Data


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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the direct medical costs of HIV/AIDS in Portugal from the perspective of the National Health Service. METHODS A retrospective analysis of medical records was conducted for 150 patients from five specialized centers in Portugal in 2008. Data on utilization of medical resources during 12 months and patients’ characteristics were collected. A unit cost was applied to each care component using official sources and accounting data from National Health Service hospitals. RESULTS The average cost of treatment was 14,277 €/patient/year. The main cost-driver was antiretroviral treatment (€ 9,598), followed by hospitalization costs (€ 1,323). Treatment costs increased with the severity of disease from € 11,901 (> 500 CD4 cells/µl) to € 23,351 (CD4 count ≤ 50 cells/ µl). Cost progression was mainly due to the increase in hospitalization costs, while antiretroviral treatment costs remained stable over disease stages. CONCLUSIONS The high burden related to antiretroviral treatment is counterbalanced by relatively low hospitalization costs, which, however, increase with severity of disease. The relatively modest progression of total costs highlights that alternative public health strategies that do not affect transmission of disease may only have a limited impact on expenditure, since treatment costs are largely dominated by constant antiretroviral treatment costs.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the clinical and laboratory characteristics of HIV-infected individuals upon admission to a reference health care center.METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted between 1999 and 2010 on 527 individuals with confirmed serological diagnosis of HIV infection who were enrolled in an outpatient health care service in Santarém, PA, Northern Brazil. Data were collected from medical records and included the reason for HIV testing, clinical status, and count of peripheral CD4+ T lymphocytes upon enrollment. The data were divided into three groups, according to the patient’s year of admission – P1 (1999-2002), P2 (2003-2006), and P3 (2007-2010) – for comparative analysis of the variables of interest.RESULTS In the study group, 62.0% of the patients were assigned to the P3 group. The reason for undergoing HIV testing differed between genders. In the male population, most tests were conducted because of the presence of symptoms suggesting infection. Among women, tests were the result of knowledge of the partner’s seropositive status in groups P1 and P2. Higher proportion of women undergoing testing because of symptoms of HIV/AIDS infection abolished the difference between genders in the most recent period. A higher percentage of patients enrolling at a more advanced stage of the disease was observed in P3.CONCLUSIONS Despite the increased awareness of the number of HIV/AIDS cases, these patients have identified their serological status late and were admitted to health care units with active disease. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Pará presents specificities in its progression that indicate the complex characteristics of the epidemic in the Northern region of Brazil and across the country.

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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

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Foram colhidas amostras de sangue de 178 recém-nascidos (RN) em berçários de hospital localizado no Município de São Paulo. Noventa crianças foram puncionadas antes do primeiro "Dia Nacional de Vacinação Contra a Poliomielite" e as outras 88, após o segundo "Dia Nacional de Vacinação Contra a Poliomielite", realizados em 1980. Nessas campanhas foram imunizadas as crianças com idade de zero a cinco anos, em todo o Brasil. No presente trabalho pesquisou-se os títulos de anticorpos neutralizantes contra poliovírus nos dois grupos de recém-nascidos. Após a imunização em massa verificou-se que a taxa de recém-nascidos triplo suscetíveis decresceu de 8,9% para 4,5%, enquanto que o aumento observado do triplo imunes foi de 38,9% para 52,3%; essas diferenças mostraram-se estatisticamente significantes ao nível de 5,0%. A proporção de recém-nascidos, com títulos de anticorpos neutralizantes contra poliovírus iguais ou maiores do que 8, aumentou após as campanhas de imunização, quando passaram de 68,9% para 81,8%, de 73,3% para 83,0% e de 57,8% para 70,5%, respectivamente, para os sorotipos 1, 2 e 3. Essas diferenças mostraram se estatisticamente significantes, ao nível de 5,0%, em relação aos poliovírus 1 e 3.

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Between October 1988 and April 1989 a cross-sectional survey was carried out in six out of eight blood banks of Goiânia, Central Brazil. Subjects attending for first-time blood donation in the mornings of the study period (n = 1358) were interviewed and screened for T. cruzi infection as a part of a major study among blood donors. Tests to anti-T. cruzi antibodies were performed, simultaneously, by indirect hem agglutination test (IHA) and complement fixation test (CFT). A subject was considered seropositive when any one of the two tests showed a positive result. Information on age, sex, place of birth, migration and socio-economic level was recorded. Results from this survey were compared with seroprevalence rates obtained in previous studies in an attempt to analyse trend of T. cruzi infection in an endemic urban area. The overall seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection among first-time donors was found to be 3.5% (95% confidence interval 2.5%-4.5% ). The seroprevalence rate increased with age up to 45 years and then decreased. Migrants from rural areas had higher seroprevalence rates than subjects from urban counties (1.8%-16.2% vs. 0%-3.6%). A four fold decrease in prevalence rates was observed when these rates were compared with those of fifteen years ago. Two possible hypotheses to explain this difference were suggested: 1. a cohort effect related with the decrease of transmission in rural areas and/or 2. a differential proportion of people of rural origin among blood donors between the two periods. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of epidemiological information to monitor trends of T. cruzi infection in an urban adult population was stressed.

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The residual potential of an aqueous solution of Deltamethrin (FW 25 mg i.a./m2) was evaluated on raffia curtains. These are sheets of synthetic material used in the construction of huts to house miners. Experiments were conducted during 420 days and the curtains were always rolled up in the daytime and unrolled in late afternoon. Data analyzed by logarithmic regression indicated that raffia treated with Deltamethrin had higher mortality indices than that covered with DDT. The residual capacity of Deltamethrin on raffia was high. The mortality percentage was above 85% after 360 days and dropped to about 50% at 420 days. The effect of DDT was reduced after 180 days and reached zero by the end of the experiment. Based on the results of these experiments, it is recommended that Deltamethrin be used to spray raffia curtains in mining regions and other areas that are endemic for malaria.

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Third stage larvae (L3) from Angiostrongylus costaricensis were incubated in water at room temperature and at 5 ° C and their mobility was assessed daily for 17 days. Viability was associated with the mobility and position of the L3, and it was confirmed by inoculation per os in albino mice. The number of actively moving L3 sharply decreased within 3 to 4 days, but there were some infective L3 at end of observation. A mathematical model estimated 80 days as the time required to reduce the probability of infective larvae to zero. This data does not support the proposition of refrigerating vegetables and raw food as an isolated procedure for prophylaxis of human abdominal angiostrongylosis infection.

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The occurrence of human Toxocara infection was evaluated in three neighborhoods of the periphery of the Campinas municipality (Jardim Santa Mônica, Jardim São Marcos and Jardim Campineiro) in 1999. Forty residences and 138 residents were randomly selected by drawing lots and were submitted to a seroepidemiological survey, which included blood collection for the immunoenzymatic detection (ELISA) of anti-Toxocara antibodies and a blood count, and the application of a semi-structured questionnaire for the evaluation of epidemiological data. Significant levels of anti-Toxocara antibodies were detected in 23.9% of the 1999 samples. No significant difference in the frequency of infection according to age was observed. Environmental contamination with Toxocara eggs was observed in 12.3 and 14.0% of 57 soil samples collected in the same region in December 1998 and July 1999, respectively. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression of the data obtained from the questionnaires and of the results of the serological tests, suggest a significant influence of socioeconomic variables on the frequency of human infection with Toxocara under the conditions prevalent in the study area.

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A 12 y old girl was admitted 24 days after start a WHO multidrug therapy scheme for multibacillary leprosy (dapsone, clofazimine and rifampicin) with intense jaundice, generalized lymphadenopathy, hepatoesplenomegaly, oral erosions, conjunctivitis, morbiliform rash and edema of face, ankles and hands. The main laboratory data on admission included: hemoglobin, 8.4 g/dL; WBC, 15,710 cells/mm³; platelet count, 100,000 cells/mm³; INR = 1.49; increased serum levels of aspartate and alanine aminotransferases, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, alkaline phosphatase, direct and indirect bilirubin. Following, the clinical conditions had deteriorated, developing exfoliative dermatitis, shock, generalized edema, acute renal and hepatic failure, pancytopenia, intestinal bleeding, pneumonia, urinary tract infection and bacteremia, needing adrenergic drugs, replacement of fluids and blood product components, and antibiotics. Ten days after admission she started to improve, and was discharged to home at day 39th, after start new supervised treatment for leprosy with clofazimine and rifampicin, without adverse effects. This presentation fulfils the criteria for the diagnosis of dapsone hypersensitivity syndrome (fever, generalized lymphadenopathy, exfoliative rash, anemia and liver involvement with mixed hepatocellular and cholestatic features). Physicians, mainly in geographical areas with high prevalence rates of leprosy, should be aware to this severe, and probably not so rare, hypersensitivity reaction to dapsone.

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Twenty-four whole blood and serum samples were drawn from an eight year-old heart transplant child during a 36 months follow-up. EBV serology was positive for VCA-IgM and IgG, and negative for EBNA-IgG at the age of five years old when the child presented with signs and symptoms suggestive of acute infectious mononucleosis. After 14 months, serological parameters were: positive VCA-IgG, EBNA-IgG and negative VCA-IgM. This serological pattern has been maintained since then even during episodes suggestive of EBV reactivation. PCR amplified a specific DNA fragment from the EBV gp220 (detection limit of 100 viral copies). All twenty-four whole blood samples yielded positive results by PCR, while 12 out of 24 serum samples were positive. We aimed at analyzing whether detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples by PCR was associated with overt disease as stated by the need of antiviral treatment and hospitalization. Statistical analysis showed agreement between the two parameters evidenced by the Kappa test (value 0.750; p < 0.001). We concluded that detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples of immunosuppressed patients might be used as a laboratory marker of active EBV disease when a Real-Time PCR or another quantitative method is not available.

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40 Echinococcus isolates from sheep and cattle in Southern Brazil were genetically analysed in order to obtain further data on the presence of different taxa of the Echinococcus granulosus complex. Differentiation was done using a PCR technique and sequencing of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (CO1). Most samples (38) could be allocated to the sheep strain (G1) of E. granulosus, while two samples belonged to E. ortleppi, previously known as cattle strain (G5) of E. granulosus. Due to the shorter prepatent period in dogs of the latter taxon, this records have important implications for the design of control measures in this endemic region.

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INTRODUCTION: HIV positive patients co-infected with HTLV-1 may have an increase in their T CD4+ cell counts, thus rendering this parameter useless as an AIDS-defining event. OBJECTIVE: To study the effects induced by the co-infection of HIV-1 and HTLV-1 upon CD4+ cells. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Since 1997, our group has been following a cohort of HTLV-1-infected patients, in order to study the interaction of HTLV-1 with HIV and/or with hepatitis C virus (HCV), as well as HTLV-1-only infected asymptomatic carriers and those with tropical spastic paraparesis/HTLV-1 associated myelopathy (TSP/HAM). One hundred and fifty HTLV-1-infected subjects have been referred to our clinic at the Institute of Infectious Diseases "Emílio Ribas", São Paulo. Twenty-seven of them were also infected with HIV-1 and HTLV-1-infection using two ELISAs and confirmed and typed by Western Blot (WB) or polymerase chain reaction (PCR). All subjects were evaluated by two neurologists, blinded to the patient's HTLV status, and the TSP/HAM diagnostic was based on the World Health Organization (WHO) classification. AIDS-defining events were in accordance with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) classification of 1988. The first T CD4+ cells count available before starting anti-retroviral therapy are shown compared to the HIV-1-infected subjects at the moment of AIDS defining event. RESULTS: A total of 27 HIV-1/HTLV-1 co-infected subjects were identified in this cohort; 15 already had AIDS and 12 remained free of AIDS. The median of T CD4+ cell counts was 189 (98-688) cells/mm³ and 89 (53-196) cells/mm³ for co-infected subjects who had an AIDS-defining event, and HIV-only infected individuals, respectively (p = 0.036). Eight of 27 co-infected subjects (30%) were diagnosed as having a TSP/HAM simile diagnosis, and three of them had opportunistic infections but high T CD4+ cell counts at the time of their AIDS- defining event. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that higher T CD4+ cells count among HIV-1/HTLV-1-coinfected subjects was found in 12% of the patients who presented an AIDS-defining event. These subjects also showed a TSP/HAM simile picture when it was the first manifestation of disease; this incidence is 20 times higher than that for HTLV-1-only infected subjects in endemic areas.

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It is generally agreed that the hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be efficiently transmitted parenterally, although data on viral transmission by sexual or non-sexual intrafamilial contact are conflicting. Since data collection began in 1989, the first study dealt with the risk of sexual transmission among multiple sex partners. Other investigations followed, emphasizing that risk increases in specific groups such as patients co-infected with HIV and HBV, sex workers, homosexuals, illicit drug users and patients attended at sexually transmittable disease clinics. The question arises as to what might be the risk for monogamous heterosexuals in the general population, in which one of the partners has HCV? The literature provides overall rates that vary from zero to 27%; however, most studies affirm that the chances of sexual transmission are low or almost null, with rates for this mode fluctuating from zero to 3%. Intrafamilial transmission is strongly considered but inconclusive, since when mentioning transmission between sex partners within the same household, specific situations also should be considered, such as the sharing of personal hygiene items, like razorblades, toothbrushes, nail clippers and manicure pliers, which are important risk factors in HCV transmission. In this review, we discuss the hypotheses of sexual and/or intrafamilial transmission.

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Few data are available about progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) from Brazil. The objectives of this study were to describe the main features of patients with PML and estimate its frequency among AIDS patients with central nervous system (CNS) opportunistic diseases admitted to the Instituto de Infectologia Emílio Ribas, São Paulo, Brazil, from April 2003 to April 2004. A retrospective and descriptive study was performed. Twelve (6%) cases of PML were identified among 219 patients with neurological diseases. The median age of patients with PML was 36 years and nine (75%) were men. Nine (75%) patients were not on antiretroviral therapy at admission. The most common clinical manifestations were: focal weakness (75%), speech disturbances (58%), visual disturbances (42%), cognitive dysfunction (42%), and impaired coordination (42%). The median CD4+ T-cell count was 45 cells/µL. Eight (67%) of 12 patients were laboratory-confirmed with PML and four (33%) were possible cases. Eleven (92%) presented classic PML and only one case had immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS)-related PML. In four (33%) patients, PML was the first AIDS-defining illness. During hospitalization, three patients (25%) died as a result of nosocomial pneumonia and nine (75%) were discharged to home. Cases of PML were only exceeded by cases of cerebral toxoplasmosis, cryptococcal meningoencephalitis, and CNS tuberculosis, the three more frequent neurologic opportunistic infections in Brazil. The results of this study suggest that PML is not an uncommon HIV-related neurologic disorder in a referral center in Brazil.