Transtornos mentais como fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de abuso/dependência de cocaína: estudo caso-controle

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o papel dos transtornos mentais e da dependência ao álcool como possíveis fatores de risco para o abuso/dependência de cocaína. MÉTODOS: Utilizou-se o desenho caso-controle e a técnica de bola-de-neve (snowball technique) para selecionar uma amostra de usuários de cocaína não tratados na comunidade (casos) e parear casos e controles por sexo, idade e amizade. A coleta de dados foi feita através da utilização do questionário CIDI (Composite International Diagnostic Interview) que gera diagnósticos de acordo com os critérios do Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-III-R. A análise dos dados foi feita através de regressão logística condicional. RESULTADOS: O estudo incluiu 208 indivíduos. Os principais resultados mostraram que história passada de dependência ao álcool era o principal fator associado a um aumento no risco de desenvolvimento de abuso de cocaína (OR=15,1; IC 95% 3,8-60,2); nenhum outro transtorno mental isolado manteve-se significativamente associado ao aumento deste risco após a análise multivariada. Aumento no risco de abuso de cocaína também foi encontrado entre os indivíduos que relataram pensamentos suicidas (OR=3,1; IC 95% 0,91-10,8), sugerindo associação entre quadros mais graves de depressão e abuso de cocaína. CONCLUSÕES: Esses achados sugerem que os programas voltados para a prevenção e tratamento do abuso de cocaína devem estar preparados para o manejo de questões relacionadas à co-morbidade do abuso de drogas com o álcool e outros distúrbios psiquiátricos.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounders using an electronic spreadsheet

In studies assessing the effects of a given exposure variable and a specific outcome of interest, confusion may arise from the mistaken impression that the exposure variable is producing the outcome of interest, when in fact the observed effect is due to an existing confounder. However, quantitative techniques are rarely used to determine the potential influence of unmeasured confounders. Sensitivity analysis is a statistical technique that allows to quantitatively measuring the impact of an unmeasured confounding variable on the association of interest that is being assessed. The purpose of this study was to make it feasible to apply two sensitivity analysis methods available in the literature, developed by Rosenbaum and Greenland, using an electronic spreadsheet. Thus, it can be easier for researchers to include this quantitative tool in the set of procedures that have been commonly used in the stage of result validation.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.