29 resultados para State And Transition Models


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The paper argues that if the state, as an expression and part of a pact of domination, operates as a corporate actor with relative autonomy, vision and capacity to promote the development, it is a key institution to the economic transformation. Supported in the neo-Marxism, exposes the limits of institutionalist approach of autonomy of the state to explain its origin, but does not rule out this approach. Maintains that the class-balance theory of the state may explain its relative autonomy and at the same time aid in understanding the historical experiences of social-developmentalist state action, particularly in the social democratic regimes and in the current Latin America.

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Statistical models allow the representation of data sets and the estimation and/or prediction of the behavior of a given variable through its interaction with the other variables involved in a phenomenon. Among other different statistical models, are the autoregressive state-space models (ARSS) and the linear regression models (LR), which allow the quantification of the relationships among soil-plant-atmosphere system variables. To compare the quality of the ARSS and LR models for the modeling of the relationships between soybean yield and soil physical properties, Akaike's Information Criterion, which provides a coefficient for the selection of the best model, was used in this study. The data sets were sampled in a Rhodic Acrudox soil, along a spatial transect with 84 points spaced 3 m apart. At each sampling point, soybean samples were collected for yield quantification. At the same site, soil penetration resistance was also measured and soil samples were collected to measure soil bulk density in the 0-0.10 m and 0.10-0.20 m layers. Results showed autocorrelation and a cross correlation structure of soybean yield and soil penetration resistance data. Soil bulk density data, however, were only autocorrelated in the 0-0.10 m layer and not cross correlated with soybean yield. The results showed the higher efficiency of the autoregressive space-state models in relation to the equivalent simple and multiple linear regression models using Akaike's Information Criterion. The resulting values were comparatively lower than the values obtained by the regression models, for all combinations of explanatory variables.

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The retention and availability of water in the soil vary according to the soil characteristics and determine plant growth. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate water retention and availability in the soils of the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, according to the textural class, soil class and lithology. The surface and subsurface horizons of 44 profiles were sampled in different regions of the State and different cover crops to determine field capacity, permanent wilting point, available water content, particle size, and organic matter content. Water retention and availability between the horizons were compared in a mixed model, considering the textural classes, the soil classes and lithology as fixed factors and profiles as random factors. It may be concluded that water retention is greater in silty or clayey soils and that the organic matter content is higher, especially in Humic Cambisols, Nitisols and Ferralsol developed from igneous or sedimentary rocks. Water availability is greater in loam-textured soils, with high organic matter content, especially in soils of humic character. It is lower in the sandy texture class, especially in Arenosols formed from recent alluvial deposits or in gravelly soils derived from granite. The greater water availability in the surface horizons, with more organic matter than in the subsurface layers, illustrates the importance of organic matter for water retention and availability.

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OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

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INTRODUCTION: In Brazil, AIDS has been described as a multi-faceted pandemic. This study aimed to describe the trends of AIDS in São Mateus microregion, in Espírito Santo, and in Brazil, from 1999 to 2008. METHODS: Data were collected from the Notification Offences System, and a trend analysis was made. RESULTS: Microregion-based results are close to the state and national levels but with particular features that indicate the presence of regional sub-epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Despite progress in nearly thirty years of the epidemic, AIDS remains an incurable disease, and prevention is still the best defense against it together with the implementation of specific public policies.

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Introduction Envenomation by scorpion stings is a major public health problem in numerous tropical countries because of its frequent incidence and potential severity. Approximately 1,900 species of scorpions are known in the world, and at least 130 of these have been described in Brazil. Methods This work reports on 3 child deaths caused by Tityus stigmurus stings and characterizes epidemiological and clinical surveys on pediatric cases of scorpionism recorded in the Centro de Assistência Toxicológica de Pernambuco (Ceatox-PE). Results Scorpion stings accounted for more than 60% of all cases recorded for venomous animals. The children were from 37 cities of the Pernambuco state and accounted for 28.8% of the victims treated for scorpion stings, with the highest incidence in the metropolitan area of Recife. Stings occurred throughout the year and slightly increased during the rainy season. Independent of the elapsed time for a prognosis, most cases showed mild symptoms. Three moderate cases that resulted in death featured cardiogenic shock and/or pulmonary edema or severe neurological symptoms. For the first time, death attributed to T. stigmurus was confirmed by the presence of the scorpion. Conclusions These results suggest that scorpionism in Pernambuco is a public health problem that needs to be monitored carefully throughout the year by the government.

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Introduction Congenital syphilis is an important health problem in Brazil. This study assessed measures aimed at the prevention and control of syphilis in the State of Mato Grosso and its capital, Cuiabá. Methods A descriptive study cross-sectional and of time trends assessing the congenital syphilis was performed in Cuiabá and Mato Grosso between 2001 and 2011. We compared maternal sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilization related to cases of congenital syphilis during the periods from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2011. We assessed the temporal trends in this disease's incidence using a simple linear regression. Results Between 2001 and 2006 in Mato Grosso, 86.8% of the mothers who had live births with congenital syphilis received prenatal care, 90.6% presented with a nontreponemal test reagent at delivery, 96.2% had no information regarding a treponemal confirmatory test at delivery, and 77.6% received inadequate treatment for syphilis; additionally, 75.8% of their partners were not treated. There was a statistically significant reduction in prenatal visits (p = 0.004) and an increase in the proportion of mothers reactive to nontreponemal tests at delivery (p = 0.031) between the two periods. No other variables were found to differ significantly between the periods. In Cuiabá, we observed a similar distribution of variables. In the state and in the capital, the increasing trend of congenital syphilis was not statistically significant. Conclusions The high incidence of congenital syphilis in Mato Grosso and the low levels of health care indicators for pregnant women with syphilis suggest the need to improve the coverage and quality of prenatal care.

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Heart tissue inflammation, progressive fibrosis and electrocardiographic alterations occur in approximately 30% of patients infected by Trypanosoma cruzi, 10-30 years after infection. Further, plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and nitric oxide (NO) are associated with the degree of heart dysfunction in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). Thus, our aim was to establish experimental models that mimic a range of parasitological, pathological and cardiac alterations described in patients with chronic Chagas’ heart disease and evaluate whether heart disease severity was associated with increased TNF and NO levels in the serum. Our results show that C3H/He mice chronically infected with the Colombian T. cruzi strain have more severe cardiac parasitism and inflammation than C57BL/6 mice. In addition, connexin 43 disorganisation and fibronectin deposition in the heart tissue, increased levels of creatine kinase cardiac MB isoenzyme activity in the serum and more severe electrical abnormalities were observed in T. cruzi-infected C3H/He mice compared to C57BL/6 mice. Therefore, T. cruzi-infected C3H/He and C57BL/6 mice represent severe and mild models of CCC, respectively. Moreover, the CCC severity paralleled the TNF and NO levels in the serum. Therefore, these models are appropriate for studying the pathophysiology and biomarkers of CCC progression, as well as for testing therapeutic agents for patients with Chagas’ heart disease.

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Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

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We consider the relevance of the study of the glassy state properties and the glass transition as important topics of the physical chemistry for undergraduate courses of Chemistry. Two of the most important theoretical approaches for the description of the glassy state, the thermodynamic and the kinetic models, are summarized with emphasis on the physical chemistry aspects. Examples illustrating the glass transition of some materials are also presented.

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The present study was conducted at the Department of Rural Engineering and the Department of Animal Morphology and Physiology of FCAV/Unesp, Jaboticabal, SP, Brazil. The objective was to verify the influence of roof slope, exposure and roofing material on the internal temperature of reduced models of animal production facilities. For the development of the research, 48 reduced and dissemble models with dimensions 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.50 m were used. The roof was shed-type, and the models faced to the North or South directions, with 24 models for each side of exposure. Ceramic, galvanized-steel and fibro tiles were used to build the roofs. Slopes varied between 20, 30, 40 and 50% for the ceramic tile and 10, 30, 40 and 50% for the other two. Inside the models, temperature readings were performed at every hour, for 12 months. The results were evaluated in a general linear model in a nested 3 × 4 × 2 factorial arrangement, in which the effects of roofing material and exposure were nested on the factor Slope. Means were compared by the Tukey test at 5% of probability. After analyzing the data, we observed that with the increase in the slope and exposure to the South, there was a drop in the internal temperature within the model at the geographic coordinates of Jaboticabal city (SP/Brazil).

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The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of anti-Leptospira spp. antibodies and the risk factors for Leptospira spp. infection in breeding cattle herds in the south central region of Paraná state. It was based on the statistic delineation/serological samples and information regarding the selected farms employed in the study of bovine brucellosis for Paraná state in the context of National Program for Control and Eradication of Brucellosis and Tuberculosis. A total of 1.880 females aged >24 months from 274 non vaccinated herds were studied. Serum samples were tested for antibodies against Leptospira spp. using microscopic agglutination test (MAT) with 22 Leptospira serovars. The epidemiological questionnaire was applied on all the selected farms and aimed to obtain epidemiological data. Hundred eighty one of 274 herds were positive for Leptospira spp./presenting prevalence of positive herds of 66.06% (IC95%=60.12-71,65%). Presence of >43 cattle (OR=3.120; IC=1.418-6.867)/animal purchase (OR=2.010; IC=1.154-3.500)/rent of pastures (OR=2.925; IC=1.060-8.068) and presence of maternity paddock (OR=1.981; IC=1,068-3,676) were identified as risk factors for leptospirosis due to any serovar in the multivariate logistic regression. Risk factors for leptospirosis due to serovar Hardjo were presence of >43 cattle (OR=3.622; IC=1.512-8,677)/animal purchase (OR=3.143; IC=1.557-6.342)/rent of pastures (OR=4.070; IC=1.370-12.087) and presence of horses (OR=2.981; IC=1.321-6.726). These results indicate that Leptospira spp. infection is widespread in the south central region of Paraná state and that factors related to the herd characteristic and management are associated with the infection.

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A floristic survey of the class Euglenophyceae in Panati Lake (7º11'14" S and 36º49'52" W) is presented. The samples were collected between November 2005 and April 2007 along the margins of the lake, and a total of 29 taxa were collected, described, and illustrated, comprising 11 specifics and 18 infraspecifics, with five typical and 13 non-typical varieties. The genus Trachelomonas showed the greatest richness (13 taxa), followed by the genus Lepocinclis (seven taxa). All of the 29 taxa cataloged had been previously reported for Brazil, most with wide geographical distributions, but all were new records for Paraíba State, and 25 new for northeastern Brazil - reflecting the need for more taxonomic studies of the Euglenophyceae in these locations.

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Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) is a newly described herpesvirus that is etiologically associated with all forms of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS). Seroepidemiological studies have shown high prevalence rates of HHV-8 antibodies among men who have sex with men (MSM) and AIDS patients, African children, Brazilian Amerindians, and elderly individuals in certain regions of Europe. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of HHV-8 antibodies in healthy children and young adults from different cities in São Paulo State, and in a population at high risk for HHV-8 infection: HIV-negative MSM, and AIDS patients with and without KS. Antibodies to HHV-8 latency-associated nuclear antigen and lytic-phase antigens were detected by immunofluorescence assays. In 643 healthy children and young adults from the general population attending a vaccination program for yellow fever in ten different cities in São Paulo State, the prevalence of HHV-8 antibodies detected by the presence of latent or lytic antigens ranged from 1.0 to 4.1% in the different age groups (mean = 2.5%). In the MSM group, the prevalence was 31/95 (32.6%). In the group of patients with AIDS, the prevalence was 39.2% (51/130) for non-KS patients and 98.7% (77/78) for AIDS patients with the diagnosis of KS confirmed by histopathological examination. We conclude that HHV-8 has a restricted circulation among healthy children and young adults in the general population of São Paulo State and a high prevalence among MSM and AIDS patients.