53 resultados para Situation models
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Abstract Brazil was formerly considered a country with intermediate hepatitis B endemicity, with large heterogeneity between Brazilian regions and areas of high prevalence, especially in the Amazon basin. Systematic vaccination of children was initiated in 1998. Between 2004 and 2009, a large population-based study reported decreased prevalence in all regions of Brazil. This review analyzed the current hepatitis B epidemiological situation in Brazil through a systematic search of the scientific literature in MEDLINE, LILACS, and CAPES thesis database, as well as disease notifications to the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The search strategy identified 87 articles and 13 theses, resulting in 100 total publications. The most recent results indicate reduced hepatitis B prevalence nationwide, classifying Brazil as having low endemicity. Most studies showed HBV carrier prevalence less than 1%. However, there are still isolated regions with increased prevalence, particularly the Amazon, as well as specific groups, such as homeless people in large cities and isolated Afro-descendant communities in the center of the country. This review alsao detected successful vaccination coverage reported in a few studies around the country. The prevalence of anti-HBs alone ranged from 50% to 90%. However, isolated and distant localities still have low coverage rates. This review reinforces the downward trend of hepatitis B prevalence in Brazil and the need to intensify vaccination strategies for young people and adults in specific regions with persisting higher HBV infection prevalence.
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In this study, we concentrate on modelling gross primary productivity using two simple approaches to simulate canopy photosynthesis: "big leaf" and "sun/shade" models. Two approaches for calibration are used: scaling up of canopy photosynthetic parameters from the leaf to the canopy level and fitting canopy biochemistry to eddy covariance fluxes. Validation of the models is achieved by using eddy covariance data from the LBA site C14. Comparing the performance of both models we conclude that numerically (in terms of goodness of fit) and qualitatively, (in terms of residual response to different environmental variables) sun/shade does a better job. Compared to the sun/shade model, the big leaf model shows a lower goodness of fit and fails to respond to variations in the diffuse fraction, also having skewed responses to temperature and VPD. The separate treatment of sun and shade leaves in combination with the separation of the incoming light into direct beam and diffuse make sun/shade a strong modelling tool that catches more of the observed variability in canopy fluxes as measured by eddy covariance. In conclusion, the sun/shade approach is a relatively simple and effective tool for modelling photosynthetic carbon uptake that could be easily included in many terrestrial carbon models.
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Background:The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe.Objective:To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP).Methods:Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP.Results:Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus.Conclusion:Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.
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AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.
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The behavioral response of Biomphalaria straminea to light was evaluted in terms of location of the snail in a Y-shaped aquarium in a situation of selection and of the rate (cm/hour) and direction of locomotion under homogeneous 9vertical) or differential (horizontal) lighting upon only one arm of the aquarium. The light source consisted of daylight fluorescent lamps with a spectrum close to that of natural light, with illumination varying from 28 to 350 lux. Analysis of the data showed that all animals, whether in groups or isolated, were attracted to light, although the time needed to approach the light source was 50% shorter for the former than for the latter. The rate of locomotion of B. straminea was 35% higher than observed in B. glabrata and 51% higher than that observed in B. tenagophila studied under similar conditions. The results are discussed in terms of social factors and geographical distribution of the three species.
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Details are given of the prevalence rates of onchocerciasis from the most recent surveys (1989) conducted in northern Ecuador. The disease has intensified and dispersed considerably due to migration of infected individuals and the presence of a highly efficient vector. Comparison of these data with those from two previous surveys carried out in 1982/83 and 1986 and correlated with entomological findings highly the danger of the formation of new foci of onchocerciasis in areas currently free of the disease. Recommendations are made for further entomological studies in areas either recently or likely to be affected by the disease where potential vectors are unknown or different to those registred in the Santiago focus. Invermectin treatment with local vector control in specific areas is advocated to reduce the disease to a low level of public health importance.
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This article discusses dengue in terms of its conceptual and historical aspects, epidemiological and clinical/pathological nature, and evolution up to the present situation in Brazil. The author discusses the ecological relationship in both the production of dengue and its control. Comparison is made between traditional dengue-control programs and a proposed socially-controlled program of an ecological nature without the use of insecticides. Stress is placed on interdisciplinary technical and scientific activity, broadbased participation by communities in discussing methodological aspects involving them, and prospective evaluation comparing the communities selected for intervention and control communities with regard to clinical and subclinical dengue cases and vector infestation rates in relation to climatic, socio-economic, and behavioural factors.
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Chimpanzees are being used in the study of immune response to Plasmodium falciparum malaria pre-erythrocytic stages (MPES). Responses induced by immunisation with recombinant/synthetic antigens and by irradiated sporozoites are being evaluated in a model system that is phylogenetically close to humans and that is amenable to limited manipulation not possible in humans. The value of chimpanzees for the in-depth study of immunological mechanisms at work in MPES-induced protection are discussed. A total number of 7 chimpanzees have been used to evaluate the immune response to recombinant antigens, and 5 have been challenged with large numbers of sporozoites, followed by surgical liver-wedge resection, in order to generate infected liver tissue for histological and immunological studies. As a complementary model, SCID mice carrying live, transplanted human and primate hepatocytes have been inoculated with sporozoites and infection of transplanted cells has been monitored by histological and immunological methods. In ongoing experiments chimpanzees are being immunised with MPES-derived lipopeptides that have been shown to overcome MHC restriction in mice, and with irradiated sporozoites.
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The mucosa associated lymphoid tissue regulates and coordinates immune responses against mucosal pathogens. Mucosal tissues are the major targets exposed to HIV during transmission. In this paper we describe in vitro models of HIV mucosal infection using human explants to investigate target cells within this tissue.
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There are several experimental models describing in vivo eosinophil (EO) migration, including ip injection of a large volume of saline (SAL) or Sephadex beads (SEP). The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms involved in the EO migration in these two models. Two consecutive injections of SAL given 48 hr apart, induced a selective recruitment of EO into peritoneal cavity of rats, which peaked 48 hr after the last injection. SEP, when injected ip, promoted EO accumulation in rats. The phenomenom was dose-related and peaked 48 hr after SEP injection. To investigate the mediators involved in this process we showed that BW A4C, MK 886 and dexamethasone (DXA) inhibited the EO migration induced by SAL and SEP. To investigate the source of the EO chemotactic factor we showed that mast cells, macrophages (MO), but not lymphocytes, incubated in vitro in presence of SAL released a factor which induced EO migration. With SEP, only mast cells release a factor that induced EO migration, which was inhibited by BW A4C, MK 886 and DXA. Furthermore, the chemotactic activity of SAL-stimulated mast cells was inhibited by antisera against IL-5 and IL-8 (interleukin). SAL-stimulated MO were only inhibited by anti-IL-8 antibodies as well SEP-stimulated mast cells. These results suggest that the EO migration induced by SAL may be dependent on resident mast cells and MO and mediated by LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8. SEP-induced EO migration was dependent on mast cells and may be mediated by LTB4 and IL-8. Furthermore, IL-5 and IL-8 induced EO migration, which was also dependent on resident cells and mediated by LTB4 . In conclusion, EO migration induced by SAL is dependent on mast cells and MO, whereas that induced by SEP is dependent on mast cells alone. Stimulated mast cells release LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8 while MO release LTB4 and IL-8. The IL-5 and IL-8 release by the SAL or SEP-stimulated resident cells may act in an autocrine fashion, thus potentiating LTB4 release.
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Eosinophils play a central role in the establishment and outcome of bronchial inflammation in asthma. Animal models of allergy are useful to answer questions related to mechanisms of allergic inflammation. We have used models of sensitized and boosted guinea pigs to investigate the nature of bronchial inflammation in allergic conditions. These animals develop marked bronchial infiltration composed mainly of CD4+ T-lymphocytes and eosinophils. Further provocation with antigen leads to degranulation of eosinophils and ulceration of the bronchial mucosa. Eosinophils are the first cells to increase in numbers in the mucosa after antigen challenge and depend on the expression of alpha 4 integrin to adhere to the vascular endothelium and transmigrate to the mucosa. Blockage of alpha4 integrin expression with specific antibody prevents not only the transmigration of eosinophils but also the development of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to agonists in sensitized and challenged animals, clearly suggesting a role for this cell type in this altered functional state. Moreover, introduction of antibody against Major Basic Protein into the airways also prevents the development of BHR in similar model. BHR can also be suppressed by the use of FK506, an immunosuppressor that reduces in almost 100% the infiltration of eosinophils into the bronchi of allergic animals. These data support the concept that eosinophil is the most important pro-inflammatory factor in bronchial inflammation associated with allergy.
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Specific chemotherapy against schistosomiasis together with environmental changes occurring in endemic areas of Brazil are causing a revolution in the clinico-pathological presentation of the disease when comparing to date from 10 to 15 years ago. To update the subject, an inquire was made among the most experienced Brazilian investigators in this field. They agree that a decrease of about 50 to 70% in prevalence, and an even higher decrease in incidence are taking place in Brazil today. The prevalence of schistosome-infection has decreased in some areas and increased in other, with spreading sometimes occurring to peri-urban regions, indicating that schistosomiasis control depends on the application of multiple measures. General clinical and pathological manifestations related to hepatosplenic disease, such as ascites, gastric hemorrhages, big-spleen syndrome, cor pulmonale, glomerulopathy, etc. are also less severe nowadays than they used to be in the past