The drought of the century in the Amazon Basin: an analysis of the regional variation of rainfall in South America in 1926

The most severe drought in tropical South America during the 20th century occurred in 1926. This extreme El Nino year is further documented anecdotally, in an update of the river stage observations at Manaus, and in annual rainfall records. The annual rainfall anomaly is an east-west dipole over tropical South America, with drought to the west over the Amazon basin whose discharge is documented at Manaus, and with a surplus to the east and including the Nordeste region of Brazil. Speculations about a role for aerosol in aggravating the drought are discussed.

The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Effects of web-based electrocardiography simulation on strategies and learning styles

OBJECTIVETo identify the association between the use of web simulation electrocardiography and the learning approaches, strategies and styles of nursing degree students.METHODA descriptive and correlational design with a one-group pretest-posttest measurement was used. The study sample included 246 students in a Basic and Advanced Cardiac Life Support nursing class of nursing degree.RESULTSNo significant differences between genders were found in any dimension of learning styles and approaches to learning. After the introduction of web simulation electrocardiography, significant differences were found in some item scores of learning styles: theorist (p < 0.040), pragmatic (p < 0.010) and approaches to learning.CONCLUSIONThe use of a web electrocardiogram (ECG) simulation is associated with the development of active and reflexive learning styles, improving motivation and a deep approach in nursing students.

Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.

Numerical analysis of the impact of charcoal production on soil hydrological behavior, runoff response and erosion susceptibility

The impact of charcoal production on soil hydraulic properties, runoff response and erosion susceptibility were studied in both field and simulation experiments. Core and composite samples, from 12 randomly selected sites within the catchment of Kotokosu were taken from the 0-10 cm layer of a charcoal site soil (CSS) and adjacent field soils (AFS). These samples were used to determine saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat), bulk density, total porosity, soil texture and color. Infiltration, surface albedo and soil surface temperature were also measured in both CSS and AFS. Measured properties were used as entries in a rainfall runoff simulation experiment on a smooth (5 % slope) plot of 25 x 25 m grids with 10 cm resolutions. Typical rainfall intensities of the study watershed (high, moderate and low) were applied to five different combinations of Ks distributions that could be expected in this landscape. The results showed significantly (p < 0.01) higher flow characteristics of the soil under charcoal kilns (increase of 88 %). Infiltration was enhanced and runoff volume reduced significantly. The results showed runoff reduction of about 37 and 18 %, and runoff coefficient ranging from 0.47-0.75 and 0.04-0.39 or simulation based on high (200 mm h-1) and moderate (100 mm h-1) rainfall events over the CSS and AFS areas, respectively. Other potential impacts of charcoal production on watershed hydrology were described. The results presented, together with watershed measurements, when available, are expected to enhance understanding of the hydrological responses of ecosystems to indiscriminate charcoal production and related activities in this region.

Rainfall erosivity and rainfall return period in the experimental watershed of Aracruz, in the coastal plain of Espirito Santo, Brazil

Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.

Calibration of the century, apsim and ndicea models of decomposition and n mineralization of plant residues in the humid tropics

The aim of this study was to calibrate the CENTURY, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for estimating decomposition and N mineralization rates of plant organic materials (Arachis pintoi, Calopogonium mucunoides, Stizolobium aterrimum, Stylosanthes guyanensis) for 360 days in the Atlantic rainforest bioma of Brazil. The models´ default settings overestimated the decomposition and N-mineralization of plant residues, underlining the fact that the models must be calibrated for use under tropical conditions. For example, the APSIM model simulated the decomposition of the Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residues with an error rate of 37.62 and 48.23 %, respectively, by comparison with the observed data, and was the least accurate model in the absence of calibration. At the default settings, the NDICEA model produced an error rate of 10.46 and 14.46 % and the CENTURY model, 21.42 and 31.84 %, respectively, for Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residue decomposition. After calibration, the models showed a high level of accuracy in estimating decomposition and N- mineralization, with an error rate of less than 20 %. The calibrated NDICEA model showed the highest level of accuracy, followed by the APSIM and CENTURY. All models performed poorly in the first few months of decomposition and N-mineralization, indicating the need of an additional parameter for initial microorganism growth on the residues that would take the effect of leaching due to rainfall into account.

Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

Use of the swat model for hydro-sedimentologic simulation in a small rural watershed

Mathematical models have great potential to support land use planning, with the goal of improving water and land quality. Before using a model, however, the model must demonstrate that it can correctly simulate the hydrological and erosive processes of a given site. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was developed in the United States to evaluate the effects of conservation agriculture on hydrological processes and water quality at the watershed scale. This model was initially proposed for use without calibration, which would eliminate the need for measured hydro-sedimentologic data. In this study, the SWAT model was evaluated in a small rural watershed (1.19 km²) located on the basalt slopes of the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, where farmers have been using cover crops associated with minimum tillage to control soil erosion. Values simulated by the model were compared with measured hydro-sedimentological data. Results for surface and total runoff on a daily basis were considered unsatisfactory (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient - NSE < 0.5). However simulation results on monthly and annual scales were significantly better. With regard to the erosion process, the simulated sediment yields for all years of the study were unsatisfactory in comparison with the observed values on a daily and monthly basis (NSE values < -6), and overestimated the annual sediment yield by more than 100 %.

Soil, water and nutrient losses by interrill erosion from green cane cultivation

Interrill erosion occurs by the particle breakdown caused by raindrop impact, by particle transport in surface runoff, by dragging and suspension of particles disaggregated from the soil surface, thus removing organic matter and nutrients that are essential for agricultural production. Crop residues on the soil surface modify the characteristics of the runoff generated by rainfall and the consequent particle breakdown and sediment transport resulting from erosion. The objective of this study was to determine the minimum amount of mulch that must be maintained on the soil surface of a sugarcane plantation to reduce the soil, water and nutrient losses by decreasing interrill erosion. The study was conducted in Pradópolis, São Paulo State, in 0.5 x 1.0 m plots of an Oxisol, testing five treatments in four replications. The application rates were based on the crop residue production of the area of 1.4 kg m-2 (T1- no cane trash; T2-25 % of the cane trash; T3- 50 % trash; T4-75 % trash; T5-100 % sugarcane residues on the surface), and simulated rainfall was applied at an intensity of 65 mm h-1 for 60 min. Runoff samples were collected in plastic containers and soon after taken to the laboratory to quantify the losses of soil, water and nutrients. To minimize soil loss by interrill erosion, 75 % of the cane mulch must be maintained on the soil, to control water loss 50 % must be maintained and 25 % trash controls organic matter and nutrient losses. This information can contribute to optimize the use of this resource for soil conservation on the one hand and the production of clean energy in sugar and alcohol industries on the other.

Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min) and the return period T (y) in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

Soil losses from typic cambisols and red latosol as related to three erosive rainfall patterns

Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors related to water erosion in the tropics. This work focused on relating soil loss from a typic dystrophic Tb Haplic Cambisol (CXbd) and a typic dystrophic Red Latosol (LVdf) to different patterns of natural erosive rainfall. The experimental plots of approximately 26 m² (3 x 8.67 m) consisted of a CXbd area with a 0.15 m m-1 slope and a LVdf area with 0.12 m m-1 slope, both delimited by galvanized plates. Drainpipes were installed at the lower part of these plots to collect runoff, interconnected with a Geib or multislot divisor. To calculate erosivity (EI30), rainfall data, recorded continuously at a weather station in Lavras, were used. The data of erosive rainfall events were measured (10 mm precipitation intervals, accuracy 0.2 mm, 24 h period, 20 min intervals), characterized as rainfall events with more than 10 mm precipitation, maximum intensity > 24 mm h-1 within 15 min, or kinetic energy > 3.6 MJ, which were used in this study to calculate the rainfall erosivity parameter, were classified according to the moment of peak precipitation intensity in advanced, intermediate and delayed patterns. Among the 139 erosive rainfall events with CXbd soil loss, 60 % were attributed to the advanced pattern, with a loss of 415.9 Mg ha-1, and total losses of 776.0 Mg ha-1. As for the LVdf, of the 93 erosive rainfall events with soil loss, 58 % were listed in the advanced pattern, with 37.8 Mg ha-1 soil loss and 50.9 Mg ha-1 of total soil loss. The greatest soil losses were observed in the advanced rain pattern, especially for the CXbd. From the Cambisol, the soil loss per rainfall event was greatest for the advanced pattern, being influenced by the low soil permeability.

Hydrological processes obtained on the plot scale under four simulated rainfall tests during the cycle of different crop systems

The cropping system influences the interception of water by plants, water storage in depressions on the soil surface, water infiltration into the soil and runoff. The aim of this study was to quantify some hydrological processes under no tillage cropping systems at the edge of a slope, in 2009 and 2010, in a Humic Dystrudept soil, with the following treatments: corn, soybeans, and common beans alone; and intercropped corn and common bean. Treatments consisted of four simulated rainfall tests at different times, with a planned intensity of 64 mm h-1 and 90 min duration. The first test was applied 18 days after sowing, and the others at 39, 75 and 120 days after the first test. Different times of the simulated rainfall and stages of the crop cycle affected soil water content prior to the rain, and the time runoff began and its peak flow and, thus, the surface hydrological processes. The depth of the runoff and the depth of the water intercepted by the crop + soil infiltration + soil surface storage were affected by the crop systems and the rainfall applied at different times. The corn crop was the most effective treatment for controlling runoff, with a water loss ratio of 0.38, equivalent to 75 % of the water loss ratio exhibited by common bean (0.51), the least effective treatment in relation to the others. Total water loss by runoff decreased linearly with an increase in the time that runoff began, regardless of the treatment; however, soil water content on the gravimetric basis increased linearly from the beginning to the end of the rainfall.

Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor) of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.