Seroepidemioplogy of schistosomiasis mansoni

In population surveys in wich the Schistosoma mansoni intensity of infection is low, or in localities where the schistosomiasis control program had success the parasitologic methods lack in sensitivity. Despite of some limitations the immunological methods are useful to provide valuable information in such field conditions. Thus, the prevalaence of schistosomiasis in untreated population can be determined by the detection of IgG or IgM antibodies, as well as the incidence by the IgA antibodies , employing mainly immunofluorescence (IF) and immunoenzymatic (ELISA), and in some extent hemagglutination (HA) or even skin test. The true prevalence and incidence of schistosomiasis can be estimated using a probabilistic model equation, since knowing before-hand the sensitivity and specificity of emploved test. The sensitivity and the specificity of serologic test become higher in low aged group, under 14. The geometric mean IF titers also gives a positive correlation with the intensity of infection. Presently there are need of serologic tests wich are economic and pratical in soroepidemiologic inquires, requiring no specialized personnel to collect population blood or serum and also easily interpret the test results. The reagents for such tests are desired to be stable and reproducible. Moreover, it is expected that the tests can distinguish an ative infection.

A model for intra-familial distribution of an infectious disease (Chagas' disease)

A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.

Active transmission of human chagas disease in Colima Mexico

Despite efforts to eradicate American trypanosomiasis (AT) and Chagas disease from the Americas, there are still areas of active transmission that can eventually become a source of reinfection in previously controlled regions. Mexico could be one of those areas, where there are no formal preventive control programs despite the presence of communities infested by Triatominae bugs infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. This study explored the prevalence of T. cruzi infection in 405 habitants of 17 communities in the state of Colima, on the Pacific Mexican coast, through a seroepidemiological probabilistic survey. The results revealed a point seroprevalence of 2.4% positive for anti-T. cruzi. In addition, 2 clinical cases of chronic and 2 of acute Chagas disease were detected in the explored communities. These findings confirm the risk of active transmission of AT in Western Mexico, especially in rural and suburban communities infested with intra-domestic triatominae, where control programs should be implemented.

Asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection in Tierralta, Colombia

With the aim of determining the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection by thick smear and PCR and its association with demographic and epidemiological characteristics in the village of Nuevo Tay, Tierralta, Córdoba, Colombia, a cross-sectional population study was carried out, using random probabilistic sampling. Venous blood samples were taken from 212 people on day 0 for thick smear and PCR. Clinical follow-up and thick smears were carried out on days 14 and 28. The prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infection was 17.9% (38/212; 95% CI: 12.5-23.3%) and the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodiumspp. infection was 14.6% (31/212; 95% CI: 9.6-19.6%). Plasmodium vivax was found more frequently (20/31; 64.5%) than Plasmodium falciparum (9/31; 29%) and mixed infections (2/31; 6.5%). A significantly higher prevalence of asymptomatic infection was found in men (19.30%) than in women (9.18%) (prevalence ratio: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.01-4.34%; p = 0.02). People who developed symptoms had a significantly higher parasitemia on day 0 than those who remained asymptomatic, of 1,881.5 ± 3,759 versus 79 ± 106.9 (p = 0.008). PCR detected 50% more infections than the thick smears. The presence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection highlights the importance of carrying out active searches amongst asymptomatic populations residing in endemic areas.

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

Direct cost of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump

Quantitative research that aimed to identify the mean total cost (MTC) of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump (PCA) in the management of pain. The non-probabilistic sample corresponded to the observation of 81 procedures in 17 units of the Central Institute of the Clinics Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo. We calculated the MTC multiplying by the time spent by nurses at a unit cost of direct labor, adding the cost of materials and medications/solutions. The MTC of connecting was R$ 107.91; maintenance R$ 110.55 and disconnecting R$ 4.94. The results found will subsidize discussions about the need to transfer money from the Unified Health System to hospitals units that perform this technique of analgesic therapy and it will contribute to the cost management aimed at making efficient and effective decision-making in the allocation of available resources.

Determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned or ambivalent pregnancies

Objective To analyze the determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned and ambivalent pregnancies. Method Cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 366 pregnant women from 12 primary health care units in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A multinomial logistic regression was performed, comparing three groups: women who used emergency contraception to prevent ongoing pregnancies (reference); women who made no use of emergency contraception, but used other contraceptive methods; and women who made no use of any contraceptive methods at all. Results Cohabitation with a partner was the common determinant of emergency contraception non-use. No pregnancy risk awareness, ambivalent pregnancies and no previous use of emergency contraception also contributed to emergency contraception non-use. Conclusion Apart from what is pointed out in the literature, knowledge of emergency contraception and the fertile period were not associated to its use.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Mecanização no preparo de amostras por microondas: o estado da arte

This review presents the latest advances of the mechanisation in sample preparation using microwave oven. The fundamental principles of microwaves field interaction with matter are presented, followed by the basic principles of microwave equipment construction. Hyphenation of microwave oven with flow injection analysis or robotic are discussed as well as some metodological difficulties and solutions by its implementation.

Influência das variáveis nitrogênio, fósforo e ºBrix na produção dos metabólicos secundários contaminantes totais da fermentação alcoólica

The present study evaluated the influence of nitrogen, phosphorus and ºBrix on the production of MSCT through a factorial design methodology and analysis of response surface. The objective was to propose a statistically significant probabilistic model for the alcoholic fermentation. In order to obtain less MSCT, the medium under fermentation needs to present low sugar concentration. It was observed that phosphorus and nitrogen, even with no significant individual effects, presented interactions with each other decreasing the production of MSCT, which improves alcohol quality.

Estudo de reações químicas homogêneas via método de Monte Carlo

By using the Monte Carlo simulation platform with probabilistic mathematical functions of the Boltzmann type, , having activation energy and temperature as parameters, it was possible to assess important dynamic aspects of homogeneous chemical reactions of the types A → B and A B. The protocol proved a useful tool in work with the basic concepts of Kinetics and Thermodynamics allowing its application both in class activities and for assisting experimental procedures.

Design and development of the architecture of an agricultural mobile robot

Parameters such as tolerance, scale and agility utilized in data sampling for using in Precision Agriculture required an expressive number of researches and development of techniques and instruments for automation. It is highlighted the employment of methodologies in remote sensing used in coupled to a Geographic Information System (GIS), adapted or developed for agricultural use. Aiming this, the application of Agricultural Mobile Robots is a strong tendency, mainly in the European Union, the USA and Japan. In Brazil, researches are necessary for the development of robotics platforms, serving as a basis for semi-autonomous and autonomous navigation systems. The aim of this work is to describe the project of an experimental platform for data acquisition in field for the study of the spatial variability and development of agricultural robotics technologies to operate in agricultural environments. The proposal is based on a systematization of scientific work to choose the design parameters utilized for the construction of the model. The kinematic study of the mechanical structure was made by the virtual prototyping process, based on modeling and simulating of the tension applied in frame, using the.

Dry months in the agricultural region of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo-Brazil: an study based on the extreme value theory

The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.

Realidade virtual e robótica em cirurgia: aonde chegamos e para onde vamos?

Minimally Invasive Surgery, Telesurgery, Robotics and Virtual Reality represent the technological frontiers that have revolutionized operating practices nowadays. These new technologies aim at improving the quality of assistance offered to patients; thus, they demand from the medical staff more effective measures as far as scientific research, training and expenditure of time and financial resources are concerned. In the past, surgeons have led several medical revolutions, such as the use of antiseptic surgical methods by Semelweiss, the use of anesthesia by Warren, antibiotic therapy, the transplants and the onset of the minimally invasive surgery by Mouret and Perissat. The objective of this article is to present the outreach of this new technology which comprises minimal access, computing, robotics and teletransmission. We have concluded that the new technologies developed in the medical field in the last decades, will offer new options and challenges for the treatment of the surgical patient, leading the scientific knowledge to a new era, the one of the virtual environment.