45 resultados para Probabilistic generalization
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ABSTRACT Objective Investigate the occurrence of dual diagnosis in users of legal and illegal drugs. Methods It is an analytical, cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, non-probabilistic intentional sampling, carried out in two centers for drug addiction treatment, by means of individual interviews. A sociodemographic questionnaire, the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) were used. Results One hundred and ten volunteers divided into abstinent users (group 1), alcoholics (group 2) and users of alcohol and illicit drugs (group 3). The substances were alcohol, tobacco, crack and marijuana. A higher presence of dual diagnosis in group 3 (71.8%) was observed, which decreased in group 2 (60%) and 37.1% of drug abstinent users had psychiatric disorder. Dual diagnosis was associated with the risk of suicide, suicide attempts and the practice of infractions. The crack consumption was associated with the occurrence of major depressive episode and antisocial personality disorder. Conclusion It was concluded that the illicit drug users had a higher presence of dual diagnosis showing the severity of this clinical condition. It is considered essential that this clinical reality is included in intervention strategies in order to decrease the negative effects of consumption of these substances and provide better quality of life for these people.
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This paper deals with a generalization of square lattice designs, with k² treatments in blocks of k + 1 plots, the extra plot in each block receiving a standard treatment, the same for all blocks. The new design leads to lower variances for contrasts between adjusted treatment means
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The present work is part of the studies carried out by the Serviço Nacional de Malária in cooperation with technicians of the Instituto Oswaldo Cruz in coastal region of Southern Brazil, from 1949 to 1953. in view of the floristic unity existing among the associations studied in the various working stations, distributed at random and somewhat far from each other, and considering that the identity of those associations has been established, the authors suggest the generalization of the problem "bromeliad - kerteszia" in similar associations of the remaining pluvial formation in the southern coast of Brazil. The present contribution is an attempt to the bio-ecological maping of the three malaria vectors responsible for the widespread malaria outbreaks in the southern coastal region of Brazil.
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In population surveys in wich the Schistosoma mansoni intensity of infection is low, or in localities where the schistosomiasis control program had success the parasitologic methods lack in sensitivity. Despite of some limitations the immunological methods are useful to provide valuable information in such field conditions. Thus, the prevalaence of schistosomiasis in untreated population can be determined by the detection of IgG or IgM antibodies, as well as the incidence by the IgA antibodies , employing mainly immunofluorescence (IF) and immunoenzymatic (ELISA), and in some extent hemagglutination (HA) or even skin test. The true prevalence and incidence of schistosomiasis can be estimated using a probabilistic model equation, since knowing before-hand the sensitivity and specificity of emploved test. The sensitivity and the specificity of serologic test become higher in low aged group, under 14. The geometric mean IF titers also gives a positive correlation with the intensity of infection. Presently there are need of serologic tests wich are economic and pratical in soroepidemiologic inquires, requiring no specialized personnel to collect population blood or serum and also easily interpret the test results. The reagents for such tests are desired to be stable and reproducible. Moreover, it is expected that the tests can distinguish an ative infection.
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A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.
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Survival and molting incidence were studied after heat (40°C) and cold (0°C) shocks in specimens of Panstrongylus megistus with the aim of establishing its response to temperature stress under laboratory rearing conditions and to understand occasional changes in the biological characteristics of specimens captured in nature. The response to the thermal shocks was found to vary as a function of the temperature and duration of the shock, developmental phase and sex of the specimens, and in certain cases, the insect habit and nourishment conditions. P. megistus specimens were found to be less resistant to the heat shock assay than Triatoma infestans, another reduviid species. The short cold shock affected survival of P. megistus more than did the heat shock, survival of fully-nourished specimens being preferential. The response of adults to the short cold shock was affected by sex, males being generally less resistant. The insect sylvatic habit was found to seldom affect the thermal shock response established for specimens with domestic habit. A decrease in molting frequency and sometimes a slowdown of the molting rate were found after the short heat and cold shocks, possibly promoted by change in hormonal balance, and differing from patterns reported for T. infestans. The results indicate that no generalization should be made for different reduviid species in terms of the effects of temperature shocks.
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Despite efforts to eradicate American trypanosomiasis (AT) and Chagas disease from the Americas, there are still areas of active transmission that can eventually become a source of reinfection in previously controlled regions. Mexico could be one of those areas, where there are no formal preventive control programs despite the presence of communities infested by Triatominae bugs infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. This study explored the prevalence of T. cruzi infection in 405 habitants of 17 communities in the state of Colima, on the Pacific Mexican coast, through a seroepidemiological probabilistic survey. The results revealed a point seroprevalence of 2.4% positive for anti-T. cruzi. In addition, 2 clinical cases of chronic and 2 of acute Chagas disease were detected in the explored communities. These findings confirm the risk of active transmission of AT in Western Mexico, especially in rural and suburban communities infested with intra-domestic triatominae, where control programs should be implemented.
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Female fecundity increases with body size in a variety of insects, but it is unknown if this generalization applies for kissing bugs. In this study, we evaluate whether gonad weight in the bloodsucking insect Mepraia spinolai correlates with body size, or determined by nutrition or developmental time. We found that the investment on reproductive tissue correlates positively and significantly with body size and with the amount of ingested blood by female insects along their lifespan. Total molting time did not significantly affect gonad weight. We suggest that under optimal feeding conditions M. spinolai females could express their maximum reproductive potential.
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With the aim of determining the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection by thick smear and PCR and its association with demographic and epidemiological characteristics in the village of Nuevo Tay, Tierralta, Córdoba, Colombia, a cross-sectional population study was carried out, using random probabilistic sampling. Venous blood samples were taken from 212 people on day 0 for thick smear and PCR. Clinical follow-up and thick smears were carried out on days 14 and 28. The prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infection was 17.9% (38/212; 95% CI: 12.5-23.3%) and the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodiumspp. infection was 14.6% (31/212; 95% CI: 9.6-19.6%). Plasmodium vivax was found more frequently (20/31; 64.5%) than Plasmodium falciparum (9/31; 29%) and mixed infections (2/31; 6.5%). A significantly higher prevalence of asymptomatic infection was found in men (19.30%) than in women (9.18%) (prevalence ratio: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.01-4.34%; p = 0.02). People who developed symptoms had a significantly higher parasitemia on day 0 than those who remained asymptomatic, of 1,881.5 ± 3,759 versus 79 ± 106.9 (p = 0.008). PCR detected 50% more infections than the thick smears. The presence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection highlights the importance of carrying out active searches amongst asymptomatic populations residing in endemic areas.
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Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.
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Quantitative research that aimed to identify the mean total cost (MTC) of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump (PCA) in the management of pain. The non-probabilistic sample corresponded to the observation of 81 procedures in 17 units of the Central Institute of the Clinics Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo. We calculated the MTC multiplying by the time spent by nurses at a unit cost of direct labor, adding the cost of materials and medications/solutions. The MTC of connecting was R$ 107.91; maintenance R$ 110.55 and disconnecting R$ 4.94. The results found will subsidize discussions about the need to transfer money from the Unified Health System to hospitals units that perform this technique of analgesic therapy and it will contribute to the cost management aimed at making efficient and effective decision-making in the allocation of available resources.
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Objective To analyze the determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned and ambivalent pregnancies. Method Cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 366 pregnant women from 12 primary health care units in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A multinomial logistic regression was performed, comparing three groups: women who used emergency contraception to prevent ongoing pregnancies (reference); women who made no use of emergency contraception, but used other contraceptive methods; and women who made no use of any contraceptive methods at all. Results Cohabitation with a partner was the common determinant of emergency contraception non-use. No pregnancy risk awareness, ambivalent pregnancies and no previous use of emergency contraception also contributed to emergency contraception non-use. Conclusion Apart from what is pointed out in the literature, knowledge of emergency contraception and the fertile period were not associated to its use.
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Despite the speciose fauna of gall-inducing insects in the Neotropical region, little is known about their taxonomy. On the other hand, gall morphotypes associated with host species have been extensively used as a surrogate of the inducer species worldwide. This study reviewed the described gall midges and their galls to test the generalization on the use of gall morphotypes as surrogates of gall midge species in the Brazilian fauna. We compiled taxonomic and biological data for 196 gall midge species recorded on 128 host plant species. Ninety two percent of those species were monophagous, inducing galls on a single host plant species, whereas only 5.6% species were oligophagous, inducing galls on more than one congeneric host plant species. Only four species induced galls on more than one host plant genus. We conclude that gall morphotypes associated with information on the host plant species and attacked organs are reliable surrogates of the gall-inducing species.
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ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.
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ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.