38 resultados para Probabilistic Projections


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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify the factors that interfere with the access of adolescents and young people to childbirth care for in the Northeast region of Brazil. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 3,014 adolescents and young people admitted to the selected maternity wards to give birth in the Northeast region of Brazil. The sample design was probabilistic, in two stages: the first corresponded to the health establishments and the second to women who had recently given birth and their babies. The data was collected by means of interviews and consulting the hospital records, from pre-tested electronic form. Descriptive statistics were used for the univariate analysis, Pearson’s Chi-square test for the bivariate analysis and multiple logistic regressions for the multivariate analysis. Sociodemographic variables, obstetrical history, and birth care were analyzed. RESULTS Half of the adolescents and young people interviewed had not been given guidance on the location that they should go to when in labor, and among those who had, 23.5% did not give birth in the indicated health service. Furthermore, one third (33.3%) had to travel in search of assisted birth, and the majority (66.7%) of the postpartum women came to maternity by their own means. In the bivariate analysis, the variables marital status, paid work, health insurance, number of previous pregnancies, parity, city location, and type of health establishment showed a significant association (p < 0.20) with inadequate access to childbirth care. The multivariate analysis showed that married adolescents and young people (p < 0.015), with no health insurance (p < 0.002) and from the countryside (p < 0.001) were more likely to have inadequate access to childbirth care. CONCLUSIONS Adolescents and young women, married, without health insurance, and from the countryside are more likely to have inadequate access to birth care. The articulation between outpatient care and birth care can improve this access and, consequently, minimize the maternal and fetal risks that arise from a lack of systematic hospitalization planning.

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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

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Chagas disease is becoming a public health problem in Latin America due to the wide distribution, the high prevalence, the magnitude of the damage caused and the difficulties to control it. In Paraguay, the disease is mainly distributed in the departments of Paraguari, Cordillera and Central. Prevalence in marginal zones, where migrations from rural populations and endemic areas make possible the urbanization of the disease, has no been studied yet. This is a descriptive study with a cross-sectional sampling and a probabilistic system recruitment carried out in school aged children from marginal zones of Asuncion to determine the prevalence of Chagas' disease. Serological methods, parasite isolation and questionnaires were used to achieve the goals. Nine hundred and fifty three children were studied to determine the prevalence of Chagas' disease in marginal zones which was 1.4%.

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Amazolachesilla, a new genus in Graphocaeciliini (Lachesillidae: Eolachesillinae), from Amazonas, Brazil, is here described and illustrated. It presents an autapomorphic clunial shelf and clunial projections, as well as a peculiar male epiproct, and paraprocts with a s clerotized longitudinal rod that makes it unique in the tribe.

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Studies have shown that the age of 12 was determined as the age of global monitoring of caries for international comparisons and monitoring of disease trends. The aimed was to evaluate the prevalence of dental caries, fluorosis and periodontal condition and their relation with socioeconomic factors among schoolchildren aged twelve in the city of Manaus, AM. This study with a probabilistic sample of 661 children was conducted, 609 from public and 52 from private schools, in 2008. Dental caries, periodontal condition and dental fluorosis were evaluated. In order to obtain the socioeconomic classification of each child (high, upper middle, middle, lower middle, low and lower low socioeconomic classes), the guardians were given a questionnaire. The mean decayed teeth, missing teeth, and filled teeth (DMFT) found at age twelve was 1.89. It was observed that the presence of dental calculus was the most severe periodontal condition detected in 39.48%. In relation to dental fluorosis, there was a low prevalence in the children examined, i.e., the more pronounced lines of opacity only occasionally merge, forming small white areas. The study showed a significant association of 5% among social class with dental caries and periodontal condition. In schoolchildren of Manaus there are low mean of DMFT and fluorosis, but a high occurrence of gingival bleeding.

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ABSTRACT Objective Investigate the occurrence of dual diagnosis in users of legal and illegal drugs. Methods It is an analytical, cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, non-probabilistic intentional sampling, carried out in two centers for drug addiction treatment, by means of individual interviews. A sociodemographic questionnaire, the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) were used. Results One hundred and ten volunteers divided into abstinent users (group 1), alcoholics (group 2) and users of alcohol and illicit drugs (group 3). The substances were alcohol, tobacco, crack and marijuana. A higher presence of dual diagnosis in group 3 (71.8%) was observed, which decreased in group 2 (60%) and 37.1% of drug abstinent users had psychiatric disorder. Dual diagnosis was associated with the risk of suicide, suicide attempts and the practice of infractions. The crack consumption was associated with the occurrence of major depressive episode and antisocial personality disorder. Conclusion It was concluded that the illicit drug users had a higher presence of dual diagnosis showing the severity of this clinical condition. It is considered essential that this clinical reality is included in intervention strategies in order to decrease the negative effects of consumption of these substances and provide better quality of life for these people.

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Three new species of Cephalobium Cobb, 1920, C. laplata from City Bell, C. polidentatum from Lincoln and C. dispar from Gorina, parasites of Gryllodes laplatae Saussure, 1877 from Buenos Aires, Argentina, are described and illustrated. Cephalobium laplata can be differentiated by having the cheilostom with a dorsal unmovable tooth, telostom with three ventral little teeth and two ventral movable claw teeth and gubernaculum triangular and five pairs of genital papillae. Cephalobium polidentatum has cheilostom with a movable ventral tooth, prostom with four dorsal movable teeth and telostom with three teeth; gubernaculum triangular with projections and with one pair of preanal and six pairs of postanal papillae. Cephalobium dispar is characterized by having telostom with two wings around the spicules and one pair of preanal and six pairs postanal papillae.

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The present study compares the metanotal gland through scanning electron microscopy in five species of Eidmanacris: E. corumbatai Garcia, 1998, E. alboannulata (Piza, 1960), E. dissimilis Desutter-Grandcolas, 1995, E. larvaeformis (Chopard, 1938) and Eidmanacris sp. The general external configuration of the gland was determined by the presence of two median projections with apical opening and a cluster of bristles just above these projections. Although there is a general pattern for this gland, each species has its own pattern, which can be defined mainly by the arrangement of the bristles and the position of the median projections. Our results suggest the taxonomical importance of these structures, which should be better analyzed when describing species of the genus Eidmanacris. In addition, while observing the reproductive behavior of these species, we concluded that the release of this gland secretion is important for the success of mating.

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Surveys for freshwater sponges were performed at several water bodies at sandy environments along a north-south direction of particularly the Brazilian coastal line. The results allowed for the distinction of four different species-specific environments along this coastal border. The main fact considered was the dominant or the sole recurrent occurrence of a single sponge species at one particular habitat. The first one is that of the lagoonal mesohaline habitats at the tropical and subtropical realms, indicated by Spongilla alba Carter, 1849. The second one refers to shallow ponds among dunes at the tropical area indicated by Corvoheteromeyenia heterosclera (Ezcurra de Drago, 1974). The third one is that of also shallow ponds close to the dune belt at the temperate region indicated by Racekiela sheilae (Volkmer-Ribeiro, De Rosa-Barbosa & Tavares, 1988). The fourth one is that of organically enriched environments, at the marginal areas of lagoons and mouth of small rivers, evolving towards freshwater muddy ponds and coastal swamps, not far from the ocean border: Ephydatia facunda Weltner, 1895 is the species to occupy this habitat with almost exclusiveness. The above species are thus proposed as indicators of such habitats and have their descriptions improved and that of their environments summarized. A taxonomic key based on the spicules of the four species is proposed. The results presented aim to contribute to the identification of spicules of these sponges in sediment columns recovered at the Brazilian and South American coastal area. Determination of paleo ocean borders are a present issue of upmost importance in what respects projections of timing and fluctuations of ascending/regressing sea levels.

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ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

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Pterigodermatites (P.) spinicaudatis sp.n. from Dromiciops australis is proposed and described. The simple morphology of the ovijector and the presence of a well developed spine between the two cuticular projections at the caudal extremity of the female distinguish the studied nematode from the remainder species of the genus parasitizing South American Edentata, marsupials and cricetid rodents. The distribution area of the hosts of the different species of P. (P.) are given. The studied genus does not parasitize any Australian marsupials. It was found in the endemic South American Microbiotheriidae. This fact suggests from a parasitological point of view that D. australis is not related to the Australian marsupials but to the South American ones.

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Cerebral complications are important, but poorly understood pathological features of infections caused by some species of Plasmodium and Babesia. Patients dying from P. falciparum were classified as cerebral or non-cerebral cases according to the cerebral malaria coma scale. Light microscopy revealed that cerebral microvessels of cerebral malaria patients were field with a mixture of parazited and unparazited erythrocytes, with 94% of the vessels showing parasitized red blood cell (PRBC) sequestration. Some degree of PRBC sequestration was also found in non-cerebral malaria patients, but the percentage of microvessls with sequestered PRBC was only 13% Electron microscopy demonstrated knobs on the membrane of PRBC that formed focal junctions with the capillary endothelium. A number of host cell molecules such as CD36, thrombospondim (TSP) and intracellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-1) may function as endothelial cell surfacereports for P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes. Affinity labeling of CD36 and TSP to the PRBC surface showed these molecules specifically bind to the knobs. Babesia bovis infected erythrocytes procedure projections of the erythrocyte membrane that are similar to knobs. When brain tissue from B. bovis-infected cattle was examined, cerebral capillaries were packed with PRBC. Infected erythrocytes formed focal attachments with cerebral endothelial cells at the site of these knob-like projections. These findings indicate that cerebral pathology caused by B. bovis is similar to human cerebral malaria. A search for cytoadherence proteins in the endothelial cells may lead to a better understanding of the pathogenisis of cerebral babesiosis.

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In population surveys in wich the Schistosoma mansoni intensity of infection is low, or in localities where the schistosomiasis control program had success the parasitologic methods lack in sensitivity. Despite of some limitations the immunological methods are useful to provide valuable information in such field conditions. Thus, the prevalaence of schistosomiasis in untreated population can be determined by the detection of IgG or IgM antibodies, as well as the incidence by the IgA antibodies , employing mainly immunofluorescence (IF) and immunoenzymatic (ELISA), and in some extent hemagglutination (HA) or even skin test. The true prevalence and incidence of schistosomiasis can be estimated using a probabilistic model equation, since knowing before-hand the sensitivity and specificity of emploved test. The sensitivity and the specificity of serologic test become higher in low aged group, under 14. The geometric mean IF titers also gives a positive correlation with the intensity of infection. Presently there are need of serologic tests wich are economic and pratical in soroepidemiologic inquires, requiring no specialized personnel to collect population blood or serum and also easily interpret the test results. The reagents for such tests are desired to be stable and reproducible. Moreover, it is expected that the tests can distinguish an ative infection.

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A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.

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Larval stages and adults of Procamallanus (Spirocamallanus) pereirai Annereaux, 1946 are described from naturally infected Paralonchurus brasiliensis (Steindachner) (Sciaenidae) from the coast of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The translucent first-stage larvae have a denticulate process at the anterior end, no buccal capsule or esophagus undifferentiated into anterior muscular and posterior glandular parts and an elongate tail; third-stage larvae have a tail with three terminal projections, a buccal capsule divided into an anterior portion with 12-20 ridges running to the left and a posterior smooth portion, and an esophagus with muscular and glandular regions. Fourth-stage larvae exhibit a buccal capsule lacking a distinct basal ring with ridges running to the right and a tail with two terminal processes, as in adults. New host records are reported and their role in its life-cycle are discussed.