71 resultados para Predictive mean matching imputation


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Thick smears of human feces can be made adequate for identification of helminth eggs by means of refractive index matching. Although this effect can be obtained by simply spreading a fleck of feces on a microscope slide, a glycerol solution has been routinely used to this end. Aiming at practicability, a new quantitative technique has been developed. To enhance both sharpness and contrast of the images, a sucrose solution (refractive index = 1.49) is used, which reduces the effect of light-scattering particulates. To each slide a template-measured (38.5 mm³) fecal sample is transferred. Thus, egg counts and sensitivity evaluations are easily made.

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Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

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The complex interaction between hepatitis C virus infection, iron homeostasis and the response to antiviral treatment remains controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of hepatic iron concentration (HIC) on the sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C. A total of 50 patients who underwent pretreatment liver biopsy with assessment of HIC by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectroscopy and were subsequently submitted to antiviral treatment with interferon/peginterferon and ribavirin were included in the study. Patients with alcoholism, history of multiple blood transfusion, chronic kidney disease, hemolytic anemia and parenteral iron therapy were excluded. The iron related markers and HIC were compared between those who achieved an SVR and non-responders (NR) patients. The mean age was 45.7 years and the proportion of patients' gender was not different between SVR and NR patients. The median serum iron was 138 and 134 µg/dL (p = 0.9), the median serum ferritin was 152.5 and 179.5 ng/mL (p = 0.87) and the median HIC was 9.9 and 8.2 µmol/g dry tissue (p = 0.51), for SVR and NR patients, respectively. Thus, hepatic iron concentration, determined by a reliable quantitative method, was not a negative predictive factor of SVR in patients with chronic hepatitis C presenting mild to moderate hepatic iron accumulation.

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The efficacy of treatment with nifurtimox and/or benznidazole among adults with chronic Chagas disease with no previous electrocardiographic disturbances was evaluated over a mean follow-up of 21 years, by means of conventional serology, xenodiagnosis, clinical examination, electrocardiograms and chest X-ray. One hundred and eleven patients, between 17 and 46 years old, were studied: 54 underwent treatment (nifurtimox 27, benznidazole 27) and 57 remained untreated (control group). Xenodiagnosis was performed on 65% of them: 36/38 of the treated and 9/34 of the untreated patients had previous positive xenodiagnosis. Post-treatment, 133 xenodiagnoses were performed on 41 patients, all resulting negative. In the control group, 29 xenodiagnoses were performed on 14 patients; 2 resulted positive. Sera stored during the follow-up were simultaneously analyzed through conventional serology tests (IHA; DA-2ME; IIF). The serological evolution in the treated group was: a) 37% underwent negative seroconversion (nifurtimox 11, benznidazole 9); b) 27.8% decreased titers (nifurtimox 9, benznidazole 6), 9 showed inconclusive final serology (nifurtimox 7, benznidazole 2); c) 35.2% remained positive with constant titers (nifurtimox 7; benznidazole 12). The control group conserved the initial antibody levels during the follow-up. In the clinical evolution, 2/54 (3.7%) of the treated and 9/57 (15.8%) of the untreated patients showed electrocardiographic disturbances attributable to Chagas myocardiopathy, with a statistically relevant difference (p<0.05). Treatment caused deparasitation in at least 37% of the chronically infected adults and a protective effect on their clinical evolution.

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INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is often mistaken for other acute febrile illnesses because of its nonspecific presentation. Bacteriologic, serologic, and molecular methods have several limitations for early diagnosis: technical complexity, low availability, low sensitivity in early disease, or high cost. This study aimed to validate a case definition, based on simple clinical and laboratory tests, that is intended for bedside diagnosis of leptospirosis among hospitalized patients. METHODS: Adult patients, admitted to two reference hospitals in Recife, Brazil, with a febrile illness of less than 21 days and with a clinical suspicion of leptospirosis, were included to test a case definition comprising ten clinical and laboratory criteria. Leptospirosis was confirmed or excluded by a composite reference standard (microscopic agglutination test, ELISA, and blood culture). Test properties were determined for each cutoff number of the criteria from the case definition. RESULTS: Ninety seven patients were included; 75 had confirmed leptospirosis and 22 did not. Mean number of criteria from the case definition that were fulfilled was 7.8±1.2 for confirmed leptospirosis and 5.9±1.5 for non-leptospirosis patients (p<0.0001). Best sensitivity (85.3%) and specificity (68.2%) combination was found with a cutoff of 7 or more criteria, reaching positive and negative predictive values of 90.1% and 57.7%, respectively; accuracy was 81.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The case definition, for a cutoff of at least 7 criteria, reached average sensitivity and specificity, but with a high positive predictive value. Its simplicity and low cost make it useful for rapid bedside leptospirosis diagnosis in Brazilian hospitalized patients with acute severe febrile disease.

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INTRODUCTION: Some viruses of the Herpesviridae family are frequently the etiologic agents of oral lesions associated with HIV. The aim of this study was to identify the presence of herpes simplex virus types 1 and 2 (HSV-1, HSV-2), Varicella Zoster virus (VZV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), human herpesvirus type 6, type 7 and type 8 (HHV-6, HHV-7 and HHV-8) in the oral cavity of HIV-infected children/adolescents and verify the association between viral subtypes and clinical factors. METHODS: The cells of oral mucosa were collected from 50 HIV infected children/adolescents, 3-13 years old (mean age 8.66). The majority (66%) of selected were girls, and they were all outpatients at the pediatric AIDS clinic of a public hospital in Rio de Janeiro. Nested-PCR was used to identify the viral types. RESULTS: Absence of immunosuppression was observed in 66% of the children. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was used by 72.1% of selected and moderate viral load was observed in 56% of the children/adolescents. Viral types were found in 86% of the children and the subtypes were: HSV-1 (4%), HSV-2 (2%), VZV (4%), EBV (0%), HCMV (24%), HHV6 (18%), HHV-7 (68%), HHV8 (0%). CONCLUSIONS: The use of HAART has helped to reduce oral lesions, especially with herpes virus infections. The health professionals who work with these patients should be aware of such lesions because of their predictive value and the herpes virus can be found circulating in the oral cavity without causing lesions.

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Introduction Surgical site infections (SSIs) often manifest after patients are discharged and are missed by hospital-based surveillance. Methods We conducted a case-reference study nested in a prospective cohort of patients from six surgical specialties in a teaching hospital. The factors related to SSI were compared for cases identified during the hospital stay and after discharge. Results Among 3,427 patients, 222 (6.4%) acquired an SSI. In 138 of these patients, the onset of the SSI occurred after discharge. Neurological surgery and the use of steroids were independently associated with a greater likelihood of SSI diagnosis during the hospital stay. Conclusions Our results support the idea of a specialty-based strategy for post-discharge SSI surveillance.

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INTRODUCTION: To evaluate predictive indices for candidemia in an adult intensive care unit (ICU) and to propose a new index. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted between January 2011 and December 2012. This study was performed in an ICU in a tertiary care hospital at a public university and included 114 patients staying in the adult ICU for at least 48 hours. The association of patient variables with candidemia was analyzed. RESULTS: There were 18 (15.8%) proven cases of candidemia and 96 (84.2%) cases without candidemia. Univariate analysis revealed the following risk factors: parenteral nutrition, severe sepsis, surgical procedure, dialysis, pancreatitis, acute renal failure, and an APACHE II score higher than 20. For the Candida score index, the odds ratio was 8.50 (95% CI, 2.57 to 28.09); the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.78, 0.71, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. With respect to the clinical predictor index, the odds ratio was 9.45 (95%CI, 2.06 to 43.39); the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.89, 0.54, 0.27, and 0.96, respectively. The proposed candidemia index cutoff was 8.5; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.77, 0.70, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Candida score and clinical predictor index excluded candidemia satisfactorily. The effectiveness of the candidemia index was comparable to that of the Candida score.

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Abstract: INTRODUCTION: In Brazil, culling of seropositive dogs is one of the recommended strategies to control visceral leishmaniasis. Since infectiousness is correlated with clinical signs, control measures targeting symptomatic dogs could be more effective. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out among 1,410 dogs, predictive models were developed based on clinical signs and an indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. RESULTS: The validated predictive model showed sensitivity and specificity of 86.5% and 70.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models could be used as tools to aid control programs in focusing on a smaller fraction of dogs contributing more to infection dissemination.

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The purpose of this study was to determine whether the ankle-brachial index (ABI) could be used to predict the prognosis for a patient with intermittent claudication (IC). We studied 611 patients prospectively during 28 months of follow-up. We analyzed the predictive power of using various levels of ABI - 0.30 to 0.70 at 0.05 increments - in terms of the measure's specificity (association with a favorable outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy) and sensitivity (association with a poor outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy). We found that using an ABI of 0.30 as a cut-off value produced the lowest margin of error overall, but the predictive power was still low with respect to identifying the patients with a poor prognosis after non-aggressive therapeutic treatment. Further study is needed to perhaps identify a second factor that could increase the sensitivity of the test.

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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the survival rate in a cohort of Parkinson's disease patients with and without depression. METHODS: A total of 53 Parkinson's disease subjects were followed up from 2003-2008 and 21 were diagnosed as depressed. Mean time of follow up was 3.8 (SD 95% = 1.5) years for all the sample and there was no significant difference in mean time of follow up between depressed and nondepressed Parkinson's disease patients. Survival curves rates were fitted using the Kaplan-Meier method. In order to compare survival probabilities according to the selected covariables the Log-Rank test was used. Multivariate analysis with Cox regression was performed aiming at estimating the effect of predictive covariables on the survival. RESULTS: The cumulative global survival of this sample was 83% with nine deaths at the end of the study - five in the depressed and four in the nondepressed group, and 55.6% died in the first year of observation, and none died at the fourth and fifth year of follow up. CONCLUSION: Our finding point toward incremental death risk in depressed Parkinson's disease patients.

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OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between coronary artery disease and the calcification index on helical computed tomography. METHOD: We studied 22 patients (ages ranging from 40 to 70 years) who underwent coronary angiography because of chest pain suggestive of angina pectoris. Findings on coronary angiography were classified as follows: significant obstructive disease (stenosis > or = 50%), nonobstructive disease (stenosis <50%), and no disease. With no previous knowledge of the results of the coronary angiography and within 7 days, helical computed tomography of the chest was performed. Then, data of the coronary angiography were correlated with the calcification index obtained by helical computed tomography. RESULTS: The sensitivity of helical computed tomography to the presence of significant obstructive lesions on coronary angiography was 87.5%, specificity was 100%, and negative and positive predictive values were 75% and 100%, respectively. The mean calcification index was greater in patients with severe coronary lesions, mainly when involvement of 2 or 3 vessels occurred, than that in patients with no coronary artery disease or with nonobstructive coronary artery lesions (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Helical computed tomography is an effective method for detecting and quantifying coronary artery calcification, and it has proved to be sensitive to and specific for the noninvasive diagnosis of coronary artery stenosis.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine the predictive values of noninvasive tests for the detection of allograft vascular disease. METHODS: We studied 39 patients with mean ages of 48±13 years and a follow-up period of 86±13 months. The diagnosis of allograft vascular disease was made by cine-coronary arteriography, and it was considered as positive if lesions existed that caused > or = 50% obstruction of the lumen. Patients underwent 24h Holter monitoring, thallium scintigraphy, a treadmill stress test, and dobutamine stress echocardiography. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were determined in percentages for each method, as compared with the cine-coronary arteriography results. RESULTS: Allograft vascular disease was found in 15 (38%) patients. The Holter test showed 15.4% sensitivity, 95.5% specificity. For the treadmill stress test, sensitivity was 10%, specificity was 100%. When thallium scintigraphy was used, sensitivity was 40%, specificity 95.8%. On echocardiography with dobutamine, we found a 63.6% sensitivity, 91.3% specificity. When the dobutamine echocardiogram was associated with scintigraphy, sensitivity was 71.4%, specificity was 87%. CONCLUSION: In this group of patients, the combination of two noninvasive methods (dobutamine echocardiography and thallium scintigraphy) may be a good alternative for the detection of allograft vascular disease in asymptomatic patients with normal ventricular function.