Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

EFFECTS OF SINGLE, BINARY AND TERTIARY COMBINATIONS WITH Jatropha gossypifolia AND OTHER PLANT-DERIVED MOLLUSCICIDES ON REPRODUCTION AND SURVIVAL OF THE SNAIL Lymnaea acuminata

The effect of sub-lethal doses (40% and 80% of LC50/24h) of plant derived molluscicides of singly, binary (1:1) and tertiary (1:1:1) combinations of the Rutin, Ellagic acid, Betulin and taraxerol with J. gossypifolia latex, leaf and stem bark powder extracts and their active component on the reproduction of freshwater snail Lymnaea acuminata have been studied. It was observed that the J. gossypifolia latex, stem bark, individual leaf and their combinations with other plant derived active molluscicidal components caused a significant reduction in fecundity, hatchability and survival of young snails. It is believed that sub-lethal exposure of these molluscicides on snail reproduction is a complex process involving more than one factor in reducing the reproductive capacity.

SURVIVAL, INDUCTION AND RESUSCITATION OF Vibrio cholerae FROM THE VIABLE BUT NON-CULTURABLE STATE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, can enter into a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) state in response to unfavorable conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in situ survival of V. cholerae in an aquatic environment of the Southern Caribbean Sea, and its induction and resuscitation from the VBNC state. V. cholerae non-O1, non-O139 was inoculated into diffusion chambers placed at the Cuare Wildlife Refuge, Venezuela, and monitored for plate, total and viable cells counts. At 119 days of exposure to the environment, the colony count was < 10 CFU/mL and a portion of the bacterial population entered the VBNC state. Additionally, the viability decreased two orders of magnitude and morphological changes occurred from rod to coccoid cells. Among the aquatic environmental variables, the salinity had negative correlation with the colony counts in the dry season. Resuscitation studies showed significant recovery of cell cultivability with spent media addition (p < 0.05). These results suggest that V. cholerae can persist in the VBNC state in this Caribbean environment and revert to a cultivable form under favorable conditions. The VBNC state might represent a critical step in cholera transmission in susceptible areas.

CHAGASIC MENINGOENCEPHALITIS IN AN HIV INFECTED PATIENT WITH MODERATE IMMUNOSUPPRESSION: PROLONGED SURVIVAL AND CHALLENGES IN THE HAART ERA

The reactivation of Chagas disease in HIV infected patients presents high mortality and morbidity. We present the case of a female patient with confirmed Chagasic meningoencephalitis as AIDS-defining illness. Interestingly, her TCD4+ lymphocyte cell count was 318 cells/mm3. After two months of induction therapy, one year of maintenance with benznidazol, and early introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the patient had good clinical, parasitological and radiological evolution. We used a qualitative polymerase chain reaction for the monitoring of T. cruzi parasitemia during and after the treatment. We emphasize the potential value of molecular techniques along with clinical and radiological parameters in the follow-up of patients with Chagas disease and HIV infection. Early introduction of HAART, prolonged induction and maintenance of antiparasitic therapy, and its discontinuation are feasible, in the current management of reactivation of Chagas disease.

SURVIVAL CAPACITY OF Arcobacter butzleri INOCULATED IN POULTRY MEAT AT TWO DIFFERENT REFRIGERATION TEMPERATURES

Arcobacter spp. are emerging enteropathogens and potential zoonotic agents that can be transmitted by food and water, being considered a public health risk. The high isolation rate of these bacteria from poultry products suggests that it may be a major source of human infections. One hallmark for differentiating the genus Arcobacter fromCampylobacter includes their growing capacity at low temperatures (15-30 °C) under aerobic conditions. However, little is known about the population density variation of these bacteria at different refrigeration temperatures. The aim of this study was to determine the survival behavior of two different Arcobacter butzleri concentrations (104 CFU/mL and 107 CFU/mL) inoculated on chicken legs and held at two different refrigeration temperatures (4 and 10 °C) throughout storage time. Results have shown that A. butzleri had growing capacity both at 4 and 10 °C. No statistical difference between the survival trends was found for both bacterial concentrations and temperatures tested. This study shows that A. butzleri is a robust species with regard to storage temperature, and represents a potential health risk for poultry meat consumers.

Prolonged survival and immune reconstitution after chagasic meningoencephalitis in a patient with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

We report a case of cerebral meningoencephalitis due to Trypanosoma cruzi in a patient with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. The patient presented with seizures and focal neurological signs. Definitive diagnosis of chagasic meningoencephalitis was made by demonstration of free trypomastigote forms in the cerebrospinal fluid. Benznidazol was prescribed with clinical and neurological improvement. Antiretroviral drugs improved cellular immunity and three years later the patient presents a good clinical condition with immune reconstitution and undetectable viral load. Chagasic meningoencephalitis has a poor prognosis when specific treatment is not initiated or is delayed. A high index of diagnosis is necessary for early diagnosis and treatment, especially in endemic areas for Trypanosoma cruzi infection.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Demographic determinants of survival of people living with HIV attending an outpatient reference unit in the city of Três Lagoas, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in the period 1984-2009

INTRODUCTION: While the incidence of HIV infection and AIDS is increasing in small Brazilian cities, epidemiological studies are often conducted in large urban centers. METHODS: Our group conducted a retrospective analysis of survival determinants among 358 patients who attended a reference unit in a small city. RESULTS: Death risk was lower among men that had sex with men, patients with an HIV-seropositive partner, and those admitted after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was available. CONCLUSIONS: The study documents the striking beneficial effect of HAART. The finding of other groups with improved survival may aid in the development of programmatic strategies.

Long term (five-year) survival following radical surgical treatment plus adjuvant chemotherapy (FAM) in advanced gastric cancer: a controlled study

Several drugs and their associations are being used for adjuvant or complementary chemotherapy with the aim of improving results of gastric cancer treatment. The objective of this study was to verify the impact of these drugs on nutrition and on survival rate after radical treatment of 53 patients with gastric cancer in stage III of the TNM classification. A control group including 28 patients who had only undergone radical resection was compared to a group of 25 patients who underwent the same operative technique followed by adjuvant polychemotherapy with FAM (5-fluorouracil, Adriamycin, and mitomycin C). In this latter group, chemotherapy toxicity in relation to hepatic, renal, cardiologic, neurological, hematologic, gastrointestinal, and dermatological functions was also studied. There was no significant difference on admission between both groups in relation to gender, race, macroscopic tumoral type of tumor according to the Borrmann classification, location of the tumor in the stomach, length of the gastric resection, or response to cutaneous tests on delayed sensitivity. Chemotherapy was started on average, 2.3 months following surgical treatment. Clinical and laboratory follow-up of all patients continued for 5 years. The following conclusions were reached: 1) The nutritional status and incidence of gastrointestinal manifestation were similar in both groups; 2) There was no occurrence of cardiac, renal, neurological, or hepatic toxicity or death due to the chemotherapeutic method per se; 3) Dermatological alterations and hematological toxicity occurred exclusively in patients who underwent polychemotherapy; 4) There was no significant difference between the rate and site of tumoral recurrence, the disease-free interval, or the survival rate of both study groups; 5) Therefore, we concluded, after a 5-year follow-up, chemotherapy with the FAM regimen did not increase the survival rate.

Preliminary observations on the effect of sudden changes of temperature on survival of young Matrinxã (Brycon cephalus) under laboratory conditions

Matrinxã is a very promising amazonian fish for fish culture in Brazil. This study is aimed at determining the approximate tolerated temperature range in this species. Groups of ten young matrinxã specimens (15.1±0.8 cm average length and 58.3±10.3 g average weight) were subjected to 9 different temperatures for 24 hours without previous acclimation. Fish were transferred from an initial temperature of 27ºC to those ranging from 12 to 39ºC at 3ºC intervals. Both 12ºC and 39ºC temperatures were lethal for this species with 100% mortality rate. Following 2 minutes of exposure to 39ºC fish changed behavior, showing an increase in opercular movements and erratic swimming; mortality reached 100% after 18 minutes. At 12ºC, fish lost equilibrium immediately after exposure and started swimming erratically; after only 4 minutes fish became lethargic and remained immobile on the bottom of the tank. Total mortality was only evident following 24 hours. At 15ºC matrinxã lost equilibrium after 5 to 6 minutes of exposure but mortality was only 20% after 24 hours. Fish tolerated well temperatures ranging from 18 to 36ºC with 100% survival after 24 hours. This preliminary study suggests that temperatures between 18 and 36ºC are the approximate range normally tolerated by this species, although survival at other temperatures may be increased by gradually acclimating fish to the more severe increases or decreases in temperature. In addition, it indicates that matrinxã may be cultivated over a wide geographical area.

Tambaqui growth and survival when exposed to different photoperiods

The use of different photoperiods (light) were investigated during tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) juvenile growth under captivity. Light intensity tested was: continuous dark (24hrs without light), natural photoperiod simulation (10hrs of light and 14hrs without light) and continuous light (24 with light). No mortality was recorded among treatments. Significant differences was observed after 50 days of experiment among mean fish weight, fish kept under a continuous darkness showed a better specific growth rate (6.02%) when compared to control fish (natural photo period, 3.67%). Fish exposed to continuous light presented the lowest mean specific growth rate (2.04%). It is possible to improve tambaqui juvenile weight gain performance when kept under continuous darkness.

Copper toxicity for Scinax ruber and Rhinella granulosa (Amphibia: Anura) of the Amazon: Potential of Biotic Ligand Model to predict toxicity in urban streams

In the last years many populations of anurans have declined and extinctions have been recorded. They were related to environmental pollution, changes of land use and emerging diseases. The main objective of this study was to determine copper sensitivity of the anuran of the Amazon Rhinella granulosa and Scinax ruber tadpoles at stage 25 and Scinax ruber eggs exposed for 96 h to copper concentrations ranging from 15 µg Cu L-1 to 94 µg Cu L-1. LC50 at 96 h of Rhinella granulosa Gosner 25, Scinax ruber Gosner 25 and Scinax ruber eggs in black water of the Amazon were 23.48, 36.37 and 50.02 µg Cu L-1, respectively. The Biotic Ligand Model was used to predict the LC50 values for these species and it can be considered a promising tool for these tropical species and water conditions. Copper toxicity depends on water physical-chemical composition and on the larval stage of the tadpoles. The Gosner stage 19-21 (related to the appearance of external gills) is the most vulnerable and the egg stage is the most resistant. In case of contamination by copper, the natural streams must have special attention, since copper is more bioavailable.

The impact of depression on survival of Parkinson's disease patients: a five-year study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the survival rate in a cohort of Parkinson's disease patients with and without depression. METHODS: A total of 53 Parkinson's disease subjects were followed up from 2003-2008 and 21 were diagnosed as depressed. Mean time of follow up was 3.8 (SD 95% = 1.5) years for all the sample and there was no significant difference in mean time of follow up between depressed and nondepressed Parkinson's disease patients. Survival curves rates were fitted using the Kaplan-Meier method. In order to compare survival probabilities according to the selected covariables the Log-Rank test was used. Multivariate analysis with Cox regression was performed aiming at estimating the effect of predictive covariables on the survival. RESULTS: The cumulative global survival of this sample was 83% with nine deaths at the end of the study - five in the depressed and four in the nondepressed group, and 55.6% died in the first year of observation, and none died at the fourth and fifth year of follow up. CONCLUSION: Our finding point toward incremental death risk in depressed Parkinson's disease patients.

Retrospective Study of the Survival of Patients who Underwent Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in an Intensive Care Unit

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical and evolutive characteristics of patients admitted in an intensive care unit after cardiopulmonary resuscitation, identifying prognostic survival factors.METHODS: A retrospective study of 136 patients admitted between 1995 and 1999 to an intensive care unit, evaluating clinical conditions, mechanisms and causes of cardiopulmonary arrest, and their relation to hospital mortality.RESULTS: A 76% mortality rate independent of age and sex was observed. Asystole was the most frequent mechanism of death, and seen in isolation pulmonary arrest was the least frequent. Cardiac failure, need for mechanical ventilation, cirrhosis and previous stroke were clinically significant (p<0.01) death factors.CONCLUSION: Prognostic factors supplement the doctor's decision as to whether or not a patient will benefit from cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Survival and Predictive Factors of Lethality in Hemodyalisis: D/I Polymorphism of The Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme and of the Angiotensinogen M235T Genes

Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.