Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

High-fat Diet Promotes Cardiac Remodeling in an Experimental Model of Obesity

AbstractBackground:Although nutritional, metabolic and cardiovascular abnormalities are commonly seen in experimental studies of obesity, it is uncertain whether these effects result from the treatment or from body adiposity.Objective:To evaluate the influence of treatment and body composition on metabolic and cardiovascular aspects in rats receiving high saturated fat diet.Methods:Sixteen Wistar rats were used, distributed into two groups, the control (C) group, treated with isocaloric diet (2.93 kcal/g) and an obese (OB) group, treated with high-fat diet (3.64 kcal/g). The study period was 20 weeks. Analyses of nutritional behavior, body composition, glycemia, cholesterolemia, lipemia, systolic arterial pressure, echocardiography, and cardiac histology were performed.Results:High-fat diet associates with manifestations of obesity, accompanied by changes in glycemia, cardiomyocyte hypertrophy, and myocardial interstitial fibrosis. After adjusting for adiposity, the metabolic effects were normalized, whereas differences in morphometric changes between groups were maintained.Conclusion:It was concluded that adiposity body composition has a stronger association with metabolic disturbances in obese rodents, whereas the high-fat dietary intervention is found to be more related to cardiac morphological changes in experimental models of diet-induced obesity.

Global literature of fiddler crabs, genus Uca (Decapoda, Ocypodidae): trends and future directions

Crabs of the genus Uca Leach, 1814 are characterized by having strong sexual dimorphism and a global distribution. Currently, 97 species have been described and analyzed under several aspects, including population ecology, physiology and ethology. However, there is no general summary of the information from the various literatures. The aim of this study is to perform a scientometric analysis of fiddler crab studies. For this we searched papers available in the Thomson ISI database that contained the words "Uca" OR "fiddler* crab*" between the years 1991 and 2007. For each paper, we researched and recorded the following characteristics: publication year; journal of publication; the first author's nationality; the country where the study was conducted; study type; species studied; and the work area. Our results indicated that there was no increase in the number of articles through the years considered. The Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology published most of the articles on Uca, indicating the importance of this group as a model for testing ecological hypotheses using experimental approaches. Our results also showed that United States had the highest number of authors and published studies on Uca, following the overall trend in dominance on scientific research. Furthermore, using models with three variables (per capita income, number of species of Uca and extent of coastal countries) we observed that, according to the Akaike Information Criterion, the per capita income was the most important correlate for the number of articles per country (both the author's country and country of study). Additionally, our results show that the species U. pugilator (distributed on the East Coast of the North American continent) was the species most singularly referenced in the papers considered. Moreover, our results indicate that most studies on Uca use a descriptive and local scale. The majority of papers in our literature search reflect studies in population biology, followed by behavioral and physiological characteristics.

The influence of temperature and humidity on abundance and richness of Calliphoridae (Diptera)

The blowfly species are important components in necrophagous communities of the Neotropics. Besides being involved in the degradation of animal organic matter, they may serve as vectors for pathogens and parasites, and also cause primary and secondary myiasis. The occurrence pattern of these species is well defined, yet it is still not very clear which of these environmental factors determine the structure of the assemblies. This paper was developed to evaluate the influence of mean temperature and relative humidity variation in the abundance and richness of blowflies in the Brazilian southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, where temperature variation is well marked throughout the year. To evaluate this objective, WOT (Wind Oriented Trap) were installed with beef liver as bait in three environments for 10 consecutive days in each month between July 2003 and June 2004. A total of 13,860 flies were collected distributed among 16 species with a higher frequency of Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann, 1819) and Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819). The mean temperature and relative humidity influence the richness of blowflies, with greater richness and abundance in late spring and early summer, whereas abundance was only influenced by temperature. Each species responded differently with respect to these variables, where L. eximia is not influenced by any of the two abiotic factors, despite the high abundance presented. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity for the presence or absence of species of Calliphoridae and on the variation of the abundance of these species under regime temperature changes and relative humidity with implications for public health and animal management.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.