U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.

Analysis of variables that are not directly observable: influence on decision-making during the research process

The sample dimension, types of variables, format used for measurement, and construction of instruments to collect valid and reliable data must be considered during the research process. In the social and health sciences, and more specifically in nursing, data-collection instruments are usually composed of latent variables or variables that cannot be directly observed. Such facts emphasize the importance of deciding how to measure study variables (using an ordinal scale or a Likert or Likert-type scale). Psychometric scales are examples of instruments that are affected by the type of variables that comprise them, which could cause problems with measurement and statistical analysis (parametric tests versus non-parametric tests). Hence, investigators using these variables must rely on suppositions based on simulation studies or recommendations based on scientific evidence in order to make the best decisions.

Implications of the variability in soil penetration resistance for statistical analysis

Soil penetration resistance (PR) is a measure of soil compaction closely related to soil structure and plant growth. However, the variability in PR hampers the statistical analyses. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of soil PR on the efficiency of parametric and nonparametric analyses in indentifying significant effects of soil compaction and to classify the coefficient of variation of PR into low, medium, high and very high. On six dates, the PR of a typical dystrophic Red Ultisol under continuous no-tillage for 16 years was measured. Three tillage and/or traffic conditions were established with the application of: (i) no chiseling or additional traffic, (ii) additional compaction, and (iii) chiseling. On each date, the nineteen PR data (measured at every 1.5 cm to a depth of 28.5 cm) were grouped in layers with different thickness. In each layer, the treatment effects were evaluated by variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis analyses in a completely randomized design, and the coefficients of variation of all analyses were classified (low, intermediate, high and very high). The ANOVA performed better in discriminating the compaction effects, but the rejection rate of null hypothesis decreased from 100 to 80 % when the coefficient of variation increased from 15 to 26 %. The values of 15 and 26 % were the thresholds separating the low/intermediate and the high/very high coefficient variation classes of PR in this Ultisol.

Assessment of pedotransfer functions for estimating soil water retention curves for the amazon region

Knowledge of the soil water retention curve (SWRC) is essential for understanding and modeling hydraulic processes in the soil. However, direct determination of the SWRC is time consuming and costly. In addition, it requires a large number of samples, due to the high spatial and temporal variability of soil hydraulic properties. An alternative is the use of models, called pedotransfer functions (PTFs), which estimate the SWRC from easy-to-measure properties. The aim of this paper was to test the accuracy of 16 point or parametric PTFs reported in the literature on different soils from the south and southeast of the State of Pará, Brazil. The PTFs tested were proposed by Pidgeon (1972), Lal (1979), Aina & Periaswamy (1985), Arruda et al. (1987), Dijkerman (1988), Vereecken et al. (1989), Batjes (1996), van den Berg et al. (1997), Tomasella et al. (2000), Hodnett & Tomasella (2002), Oliveira et al. (2002), and Barros (2010). We used a database that includes soil texture (sand, silt, and clay), bulk density, soil organic carbon, soil pH, cation exchange capacity, and the SWRC. Most of the PTFs tested did not show good performance in estimating the SWRC. The parametric PTFs, however, performed better than the point PTFs in assessing the SWRC in the tested region. Among the parametric PTFs, those proposed by Tomasella et al. (2000) achieved the best accuracy in estimating the empirical parameters of the van Genuchten (1980) model, especially when tested in the top soil layer.

Long-term changes in rice development in Southern Brazil, during the last ten decades

The objective of this work was to test long-term trends in the duration of rice development phases in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. The duration from emergence to V3 (EM-V3), emergence to panicle differentiation (EM-R1), emergence to anthesis (EM-R4), and emergence to all grains with brown hull (EM-R9) was calculated using leaf appearance and developmental models for four rice cultivars (IRGA 421, IRGA 417, EPAGRI 109, and EEA 406), for the period from 1912 to 2011, considering three emergence dates (early, mid, and late). The trend of the time series was tested with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated with simple linear regression. Rice development has changed over the last ten decades in this location, leading to an anticipation of harvest time of 17 to 31 days, depending on the cultivar maturity group and emergence date, which is related to trends of temperature increase during the growing season. Warmer temperatures over the evaluated time period are responsible for changing rice phenology in this location, since minimum and maximum daily temperature drive the rice developmental models used.

Land use/cover classification in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite images

Land use/cover classification is one of the most important applications in remote sensing. However, mapping accurate land use/cover spatial distribution is a challenge, particularly in moist tropical regions, due to the complex biophysical environment and limitations of remote sensing data per se. This paper reviews experiments related to land use/cover classification in the Brazilian Amazon for a decade. Through comprehensive analysis of the classification results, it is concluded that spatial information inherent in remote sensing data plays an essential role in improving land use/cover classification. Incorporation of suitable textural images into multispectral bands and use of segmentation‑based method are valuable ways to improve land use/cover classification, especially for high spatial resolution images. Data fusion of multi‑resolution images within optical sensor data is vital for visual interpretation, but may not improve classification performance. In contrast, integration of optical and radar data did improve classification performance when the proper data fusion method was used. Among the classification algorithms available, the maximum likelihood classifier is still an important method for providing reasonably good accuracy, but nonparametric algorithms, such as classification tree analysis, have the potential to provide better results. However, they often require more time to achieve parametric optimization. Proper use of hierarchical‑based methods is fundamental for developing accurate land use/cover classification, mainly from historical remotely sensed data.

Estudo arqueométrico de cerâmicas do Sítio Guará, Goiás, Brasil

There is no evidence of urban civilization in Brazilian prehistory; most inhabitants lived in tribal groupings, probably with regional economic integration among several independent tribes. There is little evidence of seasonal migrations between the coast and the inland of southern Brazil. Some specialized horticulturists competed among themselves but other groups lived more isolated and probably peacefully, in the upper interfluvial regions. Chemical analysis of artifacts is a means of documenting traffic in particular materials and intraregional production and distribution, development of craft specialization and typological refinement among other issues. In this study we tested some possibilities in two different cultural contexts using the parametric k0 neutron activation analysis technique, which allowed the determination of elements: Al, As, Au, Ce, Cl, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, Ga, K, La, Na, Rb, Sc, Ta, Ti, V and Zn.

Comparação de duas metodologias de amostragem atmosférica com ferramenta estatística não paramétrica

In atmospheric aerosol sampling, it is inevitable that the air that carries particles is in motion, as a result of both externally driven wind and the sucking action of the sampler itself. High or low air flow sampling speeds may lead to significant particle size bias. The objective of this work is the validation of measurements enabling the comparison of species concentration from both air flow sampling techniques. The presence of several outliers and increase of residuals with concentration becomes obvious, requiring non-parametric methods, recommended for the handling of data which may not be normally distributed. This way, conversion factors are obtained for each of the various species under study using Kendall regression.

Estatística aplicada à química: dez dúvidas comuns

Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

RAPD analysis of genetic variability in a multiprovenance base population of Eucalyptus grandis hill ex maiden

This study aimed to evaluate the genetic variability among individuals of a base population of Eucalyptus grandis and to build a molecular marker database for the analyzed populations. The Eucalyptus grandis base population comprised 327 individuals from Coff's Harbour, Atherton and Rio Claro. A few plants came from other sites (Belthorpe MT. Pandanus, Kenilworth, Yabbra, etc.). Since this base population had a heterogeneous composition, the groups were divided according to geographic localization (latitude and longitude), and genetic breeding level. Thus, the influence of those two factors (geographic localization and genetic breeding level) on the genetic variability detected was discussed. The RAPD technique allowed the evaluation of 70 loci. The binary matrix was used to estimate the genetic similarity among individuals using Jaccard's Coefficient. Parametric statistical tests were used to compare within-group similarity of the means. The obtained results showed that the base population had wide genetic variability and a mean genetic similarity of 0.328. Sub-group 3 (wild materials from the Atherton region) showed mean genetic similarity of 0.318. S.P.A. (from Coff's Harbour region) had a mean genetic similarity of 0.322 and was found to be very important for maintenance of variation in the base population. This can be explained since the individuals from those groups accounted for most of the base population (48.3% for it). The base population plants with genetic similarity higher than 0.60 should be phenotypically analyzed again in order to clarify the tendency of genetic variability during breeding programs.

Monotonic trend and change points in southern Brazil precipitation

Scientific evidence on climate changes at global level has gained increasing interest in the scientific community in general. The impacts of climate change as well as anthropogenic actions may cause errors in hydro-agricultural projects existent in the watershed under study. This study aimed to identify the presence or absence of trend in total annual precipitation series of the watershed of the Mirim Lagoon, state of Rio Grande do Sul-RS / Brazil / Uruguay (Brazilian side) as well as to detect the period in which they occurred. For that, it was analyzed the precipitation data belonging to 14 weather stations. To detect the existence of monotonic trend and change points, it was used the nonparametric tests of Mann-Kendall and Mann-Whitney, the "t" test of Student for two samples of unpaired data (parametric), as well as the technique of progressive mean. The Weather Station 3152014 (Pelotas) presented changes in the trend in the series of annual precipitation in the period from 1953 to 2007. The methodologies that use subdivided series were more efficient in detecting change in trend when compared with the Mann-Kendall test, which uses the complete series (from 1921 to 2007).

Chromosomal abnormalities in couples with recurrent first trimester abortions

PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities in couples with two or more recurrent first trimester miscarriages of unknown cause. METHODS: The study was conducted on 151 women and 94 partners who had an obstetrical history of two or more consecutive first trimester abortions (1-12 weeks of gestation). The controls were 100 healthy women without a history of pregnancy loss. Chromosomal analysis was performed on peripheral blood lymphocytes cultured for 72 hours, using Trypsin-Giemsa (GTG) banding. In all cases, at least 30 metaphases were analyzed and 2 karyotypes were prepared, using light microscopy. The statistical analysis was performed using the Student t-test for normally distributed data and the Mann-Whitney test for non-parametric data. The Kruskal-Wallis test or Analysis of Variance was used to compare the mean values between three or more groups. The software used was Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), version 17.0. RESULTS: The frequency of chromosomal abnormalities in women with recurrent miscarriages was 7.3%, including 4.7% with X-chromosome mosaicism, 2% with reciprocal translocations and 0.6% with Robertsonian translocations. A total of 2.1% of the partners of women with recurrent miscarriages had chromosomal abnormalities, including 1% with X-chromosome mosaicism and 1% with inversions. Among the controls, 1% had mosaicism. CONCLUSION: An association between chromosomal abnormalities and recurrent miscarriage in the first trimester of pregnancy (OR=7.7; 95%CI 1.2--170.5) was observed in the present study. Etiologic identification of genetic factors represents important clinical information for genetic counseling and orientation of the couple about the risk for future pregnancies and decreases the number of investigations needed to elucidate the possible causes of miscarriages.

The effect of soy dietary supplement and low dose of hormone therapy on main cardiovascular health biomarkers: a randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE: To assess the effects of a soy dietary supplement on the main biomarkers of cardiovascular health in postmenopausal women compared with the effects of low-dose hormone therapy (HT) and placebo.METHODS: Double-blind, randomized and controlled intention-to-treat trial. Sixty healthy postmenopausal women, aged 40-60 years, 4.1 years mean time since menopause were recruited and randomly assigned to 3 groups: a soy dietary supplement group (isoflavone 90mg), a low-dose HT group (estradiol 1 mg plus noretisterone 0.5 mg) and a placebo group. Lipid profile, glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure and abdominal/hip ratio were evaluated in all the participants at baseline and after 16 weeks. Statistical analyses were performed using the χ2 test, Fisher's exact test, Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), paired Student's t-test and Wilcoxon test.RESULTS: After a 16-week intervention period, total cholesterol decreased 11.3% and LDL-cholesterol decreased 18.6% in the HT group, but both did not change in the soy dietary supplement and placebo groups. Values for triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure and abdominal/hip ratio did not change over time in any of the three groups.CONCLUSION: The use of dietary soy supplement did not show any significant favorable effect on cardiovascular health biomarkers compared with HT. Clinical Trial Registry: The trial is registered at the Brazilian Clinical Trials Registry (Registro Brasileiro de Ensaios Clínicos - ReBEC), number RBR-76mm75.

Metabolism and gene polymorphisms of the folate pathway in Brazilian women with history of recurrent abortion

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between polymorphisms in genes that encode enzymes involved in folate- and vitamin B12-dependent homocysteine metabolism and recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA).METHODS: We investigated the C677T and A1298C polymorphisms of the methylenetetrahydrofalate reductase gene (MTHFR), the A2756G polymorphism of the methionine synthase gene (MS) and the 844ins68 insertion of the cystathionine beta synthetase gene (CBS). The PCR technique followed by RFLP was used to assess the polymorphisms; the serum levels of homocysteine, vitamin B12 and folate were investigated by chemiluminescence. The EPI Info Software version 6.04 was used for statistical analysis. Parametric variables were compared by Student's t-test and nonparametric variables by the Wilcoxon rank sum test.RESULTS: The frequencies of gene polymorphisms in 89 women with a history of idiopathic recurrent miscarriage and 150 controls were 19.1 and 19.6% for the C677T, insertion, 20.8 and 26% for the A1298C insertion, 14.2 and 21.9% for the A2756G insertion, and 16.4 and 18% for the 844ins68 insertion, respectively. There were no significant differences between case and control groups in any of the gene polymorphisms investigated. However, the frequency of the 844ins68 insertion in the CBS gene was higher among women with a history of loss during the third trimester of pregnancy (p=0.003). Serum homocysteine, vitamin B12 and folate levels id not differ between the polymorphisms studied in the case and control groups. However, linear regression analysis showed a dependence of serum folate levels on the maintenance of tHcy levels.CONCLUSION: The investigated gene polymorphisms and serum homocysteine, vitamin B12 and folate levels were not associated with idiopathic recurrent miscarriage in the present study. Further investigations are needed in order to confirm the role of the CBS 844ins68 insertion in recurrent miscarriage.

Histopathology of dairy cows' hooves with signs of naturally acquired laminitis

The purpose of this study was to investigate histological changes in dairy cows' hooves with or without injuries from naturally acquired laminitis. Cull cows with no clinical signs of hoof abnormalities (G1, n=9) and those with macroscopic lesions associated with laminitis without (G2, n=23) or with lameness (G3, n=7) were used in the study. After slaughter, samples of dermo-epidermal junctions of sole, axial and dorsal regions of the hoof were obtained and histologically processed using HE and PAS staining. Congestion, hemorrhage and inflammatory infiltrate in the dermis of sole, axial and dorsal regions were blindly and semiquantitatively evaluated by the same researcher. Inflammatory infiltrate was evaluated in the dermal laminae of axial and dorsal regions. The morphology of epidermal cells and the presence of irregularities in three regions of the basement membrane (BM) length were examined using PAS staining. Scores of lesions in different regions of the hoof in the same group and in different groups for each region of the hoof were compared using non-parametric analyses. Inflammatory infiltrate in the dermis of all regions of the hoof was detected in all groups with no significant statistical difference. Cows with no clinical signs of hoof abnormalities secondary to laminitis (G1) have inflammation scores and epidermal cell changes similar to those of groups with laminitis injuries, suggesting the existence of a prodromal phase for this disease in bovines. BM had irregularities with a variable intensity along its length, however, with no difference among groups. The pattern of BM irregularities found has not been reported so far and does not resemble the BM collapse described in horses and cattle with induced acute laminitis. Is it concluded that even in the absence of macroscopic hoof signs associated to laminitis, dairy cows have histological injuries compatible with inflammation of the dermo-epidermal junction as in affected animals. Basement membrane of cows with or without laminitis associated lesions had irregularities with an irregular distribution along its length which need to be further studied.