33 resultados para New Keynesian model, Bayesian methods, Monetary policy, Great Inflation


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This article discusses Brazil's multilateral policy under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration, highlighting economic, political and environmental themes. The main argument is that Brazil's multilateral relations during this government reached a new significance with the reinforcement of international coalitions and the articulation with the country's new development model. The country has been using multilateral forums as a way to achieve international projection and support for its development project, highlighting bargaining aspects, variable geometry coalitions and the strengthening of South-South cooperation

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In the last fifty years, Brazil began a rapid process of structural transformation, following the first stage of industrial development in the 1930s. Currently the country integrates the small group of countries which evolved from an initial peripheral and subordinate insertion dating back to the nineteenth century, part of the most dynamic segment of the semiperiphery. But this category, intermediate between the "maturity" and "backwardness", according Modernization theorists, or between the "center" and "periphery", as theorists of the Dependence defend, has undergone a process of overcoming considerable positive progress in the direction of the group of states that dominate the current world system. In this way, during the years 2003-2010, foreign policy, along with the formulation of a new regionalism as a strategy of global integration and a new ideal model of State, has been a key factor

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Angiogenesis has been recognised as a precursor of fibrosis in several pathologic conditions. Its participation has been demonstrated in schistosomiasis, both during periovular granuloma formation and in the genesis of schistosomal periportal fibrosis. Paradoxically, proliferation of new blood vessels, accompanied by production of vascular-endothelial growth factor, appeared prominent during fibrosis regression months after curative treatment of schistosomiasis. Thus, angiogenesis in schistosomiasis seems to have a two-way mode of action, participating both in fibrogenesis and in fibrosis degradation. Morphological observations presented here are in keeping with the possibility that, in the first case, angiogenesis allows pericytes to come in great numbers to the site of lesions and be detached from capillary walls and transformed into myofibroblasts, which are important extra-cellular matrix forming cells. During post-curative fibrosis regression, actin-containing pericytes appeared at various foci of tissue remodelling, especially at sites of repair of vascular lesions. The molecular and cell factors involved in both situations seem to be important subjects in need of further investigations and the schistosomiasis model certainly will be of great avail in this regard.

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A taxonomic key for the genera of Elmidae (Coleoptera, Byrrhoidea) occurring in Goiás State, Brazil, including new records and distributional notes. Despite their great diversity and high abundance in Neotropical aquatic environments, the fauna of Elmidae remains practically unknown in some areas and even entire biomes in this region. In this work we bring, for the first time, faunistic data for the Elmidae of central Brazil. The aim of this work was to inventory the Elmidae fauna in central, southwestern and southeastern Goiás State, Brazil and to produce a taxonomic key, at genus level, for adults from the studied region. The taxonomic key presented herein offers means for the identification of all the 13 genera known to occur in Goiás, 11 of them being new records for the State. Moreover, the number of named species registered for Goiás increased from one to nine.

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Textile manufacture occupies a prominent place in the national economy. Because of its importance researches have been made on the development of new materials, equipment and methods used in the production process. The cutting of textiles starts in the basic stage, to be followed by the process of the making of clothes and other articles. In the hot cutting of fabric, one of the variables of great importance in the control of the process is the contact temperature between the tool and the fabric. This work presents a technique for the measurement of the temperature based on the processing of infrared images. With this purpose, it was developed a system which is composed of an infrared camera, a framegrabber PC board and a software which analyses the punctual temperature in the cut area enabling the operator to achieve the necessary control of other variables involved in the process.

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A contribution to the debate on the efficacy of monetary policy and some implications in the case of Brazil. The main opposition between Keynesian and Classic monetary theories is defined by the former's proposition of money non-neutrality in the long period. According to Keynes, it is not possible to describe a monetary economy's long period position without first specifying the monetary policy it is adopting. The policy is described by the choice of the short-term interest rate which exerts an important determining influence on the long term rate and, therefore, on real investment decisions. Based on this reasoning, inflation target monetary policy regimes are criticized, in particular the one adopted in post-1999 balance of payments crisis Brazil because of its deleterious impact on investment and growth.

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Renegotiation of the public debt in conditions of excessive debt. This paper studies the debt overhang models and maturity management models, and analyses both theoretically and historically the debt renegotiations which the final outcome is a lower public debt burden. From the theoretical view the renegotiation plans can be Pareto improving, both creditors and debtors can be better-off, and the value of the new debt will price the new reputation and debtors' willingness to pay. From the historical point of view, funded debts were the instrument that debtors used to improve reputation.

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This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

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The aim of this paper is to evaluate the relationship between fiscal deficits and interest rate in Brazil. An adaptation of Taylor’s Rule is tested and the data confirmed this relationship. Furthermore, evidence from a loanable funds model shows that a lower deficit can bring interest rate down. However, policy coordination is a key feature in this process.

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This article shows that, in spite of its great steps towards reality, new-Keynesian macroeconomics seems to be a non-systematic construction with problems originated from "ad hoc" hypothesis required to explain the non neutrality of money and the existence of disequilibria in the short run. In particular, it seems that prices and wages rigidities stand in sandy bases and that the derivation of the IS and LM curves from neoclassical fundamentals is problematic. Even disregarding the apparent difficulties of the neoclassical theory of value and distribution, the new-Keynesian connections between interest rate, money, and output do not seem fully consistent.

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This paper reexamines the issue of international financial capital mobility, which is today's economic orthodoxy. Discussion is often framed in terms of the impossible trinity. That framing distorts discussion by representing capital mobility as having equal significance with sovereign monetary policy and control over exchange rates. It also distorts discussion by ignoring possibilities for coordinated monetary policy and exchange rates, and for managed capital flows. The case for capital mobility rests on neo-classical economic efficiency arguments and neo-liberal political arguments. The case against capital mobility is based on Keynesian macroeconomic inefficiency arguments, neo-Walrasian market failure arguments, and neo-Marxian arguments regarding distortion of the social structure of accumulation. Close examination shows the case for capital mobility to be extremely flimsy, pointing to the ideological dimension behind today's policy orthodoxy.

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The paper aims at analyzing the article by Gerson Lima on the manner by which fiscal deficit should be covered. It presents a more general dynamic model, where the principle of effective demand is explicitly used. By doing that, it is possible to treat as endogenous variables the national income and the government entries, what brings the result that the public debt must not follow an explosive path unless the very restrictive conditions of Lima's paper prevail. It also evaluates Lima's implicit inflation theory, and argues against his approximation to Friedman's framework.

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This paper aims at evaluating the conduction of monetary policy after the adoption of inflation targeting. Formation of Selic rate is modeled by estimating a reaction function of the BCB. Results show an excessive degree of interest rate smoothing and a high level of equilibrium interest rate. This evidence supports the belief that Selic rate's formation is ruled by a conservative behavior. The conservative conduction of monetary policy is related to two distinct features of BCB's reaction function: i) the great weight of autoregressive components; and, chiefly, ii) a very high level of the equilibrium interest rate. The main conclusion is that, all remaining unchanged, the interest rate would hardly be reduced in a satisfactory way. Massive and chronic deflation would be needed if Selic were to reach a reasonable level, closer to that of rates in the rest of the world. This evidences the need for a debate on the adequacy of current stabilization strategy.

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Inflation targeting, Taylor rule and money neutrality: a post-Keynesian critic. This paper critically discusses the inflation targeting regime proposed by orthodox economists, in particular the Taylor Rule. The article describes how the Taylor Rule assumes the argument of money neutrality inherited from the Quantitative Theory of Money. It discusses critically the ways of operation of the rule, and the negative impacts of the interest rate over the potential output. In this sense, the article shows the possible vicious circles of the monetary policy when money is not neutral, as is the case for post-keynesian economists. The relation of interest rates, potential output and the output gap is illustrated in some estimates using the methodology of Vector Auto-Regressive in the Brazilian case.

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This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease) shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.