Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

Modeling AIDS vaccines: the cellular level

This paper discuses current strategies for the development of AIDS vaccines wich allow immunzation to disturb the natural course of HIV at different detailed stages of its life cycle. Mathematical models describing the main biological phenomena (i.e. virus and vaccine induced T4 cell growth; virus and vaccine induced activation latently infected T4 cells; incremental changes immune response as infection progress; antibody dependent enhancement and neutralization of infection) and allowing for different vaccination strategies serve as a backgroud for computer simulations. The mathematical models reproduce updated information on the behavior of immune cells, antibody concentrations and free viruses. The results point to some controversial outcomes of an AIDS vaccine such as an early increase in virus concentration among vaccinated when compared to nonvaccinated individuals.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Phylogeny of the kinetoplastida: taxonomic problems and insights into the evolution of parasitism

To further investigate phylogeny of kinetoplastid protozoa, the sequences of small subunit (18S) ribosomal RNA of nine bodonid isolates and ten isolates of insect trypanosomatids have been determined. The root of the kinetoplastid tree was attached to the branch of Bodo designis and/or Cruzella marina. The suborder Trypanosomatina appeared as a monophyletic group, while the suborder Bodonina was paraphyletic. Among bodonid lineages, parasitic organisms were intermingled with free-living ones, implying multiple transitions to parasitism and supporting the `vertebrate-first hypothesis'. The tree indicated that the genera Cryptobia and Bodo are artificial taxa. Separation of fish cryptobias and Trypanoplasma borreli as different genera was not supported. In trypanosomatids, the genera Leptomonas and Blastocrithidia were polyphyletic, similar to the genera Herpetomonas and Crithidia and in contrast to the monophyletic genera Trypanosoma and Phytomonas. This analysis has shown that the morphological classification of kinetoplastids does not in general reflect their genetic affinities and needs a revision.

Molecular Modeling Approaches for Determining Gene Function: application to a Putative Poly-A Binding Protein from Leishmania amazonensis (LaPABP)

The great expansion in the number of genome sequencing projects has revealed the importance of computational methods to speed up the characterization of unknown genes. These studies have been improved by the use of three dimensional information from the predicted proteins generated by molecular modeling techniques. In this work, we disclose the structure-function relationship of a gene product from Leishmania amazonensis by applying molecular modeling and bioinformatics techniques. The analyzed sequence encodes a 159 aminoacids polypeptide (estimated 18 kDa) and was denoted LaPABP for its high homology with poly-A binding proteins from trypanosomatids. The domain structure, clustering analysis and a three dimensional model of LaPABP, basically obtained by homology modeling on the structure of the human poly-A binding protein, are described. Based on the analysis of the electrostatic potential mapped on the model's surface and conservation of intramolecular contacts responsible for folding stabilization we hypothesize that this protein may have less avidity to RNA than it's L. major counterpart but still account for a significant functional activity in the parasite. The model obtained will help in the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to elucidate the mechanism of gene expression in trypanosomatids and serve as a starting point for its exploration as a potential source of targets for a rational chemotherapy.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Schistosoma mansoni major egg antigen Smp40: molecular modeling and potential immunoreactivity for anti-pathology vaccine development

The pathogenesis of Schistosoma mansoni infection is largely determined by host T-cell mediated immune responses such as the granulomatous response to tissue deposited eggs and subsequent fibrosis. The major egg antigens have a valuable role in desensitizing the CD4+ Th cells that mediate granuloma formation, which may prevent or ameliorate clinical signs of schistosomiasis.S. mansoni major egg antigen Smp40 was expressed and completely purified. It was found that the expressed Smp40 reacts specifically with anti-Smp40 monoclonal antibody in Western blotting. Three-dimensional structure was elucidated based on the similarity of Smp40 with the small heat shock protein coded in the protein database as 1SHS as a template in the molecular modeling. It was figured out that the C-terminal of the Smp40 protein (residues 130 onward) contains two alpha crystallin domains. The fold consists of eight beta strands sandwiched in two sheets forming Greek key. The purified Smp40 was used for in vitro stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients infected with S. mansoni using phytohemagglutinin mitogen as a positive control. The obtained results showed that there is no statistical difference in interferon-g, interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 levels obtained with Smp40 stimulation compared with the control group (P > 0.05 for each). On the other hand, there were significant differences after Smp40 stimulation in IL-5 (P = 0.006) and IL-10 levels (P < 0.001) compared with the control group. Gaining the knowledge by reviewing the literature, it was found that the overall pattern of cytokine profile obtained with Smp40 stimulation is reported to be associated with reduced collagen deposition, decreased fibrosis, and granuloma formation inhibition. This may reflect its future prospect as a leading anti-pathology schistosomal vaccine candidate.

Ancient medical texts, modern reading problems

The word tradition has a very specific meaning in linguistics: the passing down of a text, which may have been completed or corrected by different copyists at different times, when the concept of authorship was not the same as it is today. When reading an ancient text the word tradition must be in the reader's mind. To discuss one of the problems an ancient text poses to its modern readers, this work deals with one of the first printed medical texts in Portuguese, the Regimento proueytoso contra ha pestenença, and draws a parallel between it and two related texts, A moche profitable treatise against the pestilence, and the Recopilaçam das cousas que conuem guardar se no modo de preseruar à Cidade de Lixboa E os sãos, & curar os que esteuerem enfermos de Peste. The problems which arise out of the textual structure of those books show how difficult is to establish a tradition of another type, the medical tradition. The linguistic study of the innumerable medieval plague treatises may throw light on the continuities and on the disruptions of the so-called hippocratic-galenical medical tradition.

Knowledge and attitudes of nurses towards alcohol and related problems: the impact of an educational intervention

An exploratory study of quasi-experimental approach that aimed to verify the impact of an educational intervention on attitudes and knowledge of nurses towards alcohol use and associated problems. The sample included 185 nurses, divided into two groups: 84 submitted to a training course and formed the experimental group. Data were collected through a knowledge survey and an attitude scale. The attitudes of the participants of both groups were positive. There were no significant differences between groups in relation to knowledge. The strongest predictors of positive attitudes were possessed preparation to act with chemical dependents (OR = 2.18), "have received increased workload during graduation on the theme, 'alcohol and other drugs'" (OR = 1.70), and "completed graduate school" (OR = 2.59). The educational intervention had a positive impact on the attitudes of nurses towards alcoholics, work and interpersonal relationships with such clientele.

Health problems of nursing workers in a public educational institution

Objective: To identify the issues occurred with nursing workers through a Health Monitoring System for Nursing Workers (SIMOSTE) and to describe the consequences of those problems. Method: This is a quantitative, exploratory and descriptive study realized in a teaching hospital in the west region of the city of São Paulo. Results: From the SIMOSTE, 1.847 occurrences were registered in a six month period. Within the main occurrences, medical licenses, work related accidents with and without removals; psychiatric consultations and psychotherapy were highlighted. Conclusion: The data points out to the need for the development of new health vigilance actions to notify accidents and illness related to work, besides the prevention of issues. 


The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.

Modeling water movement in horizontal columns using fractal theory

Fractal mathematics has been used to characterize water and solute transport in porous media and also to characterize and simulate porous media properties. The objective of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the soil infiltration parameters sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) and the parameters dimension (D) and the Hurst exponent (H). For this purpose, ten horizontal columns with pure (either clay or loam) and heterogeneous porous media (clay and loam distributed in layers in the column) were simulated following the distribution of a deterministic Cantor Bar with fractal dimension H" 0.63. Horizontal water infiltration experiments were then simulated using Hydrus 2D software. The sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) parameters of the Philip equation were estimated for each simulation, using the nonlinear regression procedure of the statistical software package SAS®. Sorptivity increased in the columns with the loam content, which was attributed to the relation of S with the capillary radius. The time exponent estimated by nonlinear regression was found to be less than the traditional value of 0.5. The fractal dimension estimated from the Hurst exponent was 17.5 % lower than the fractal dimension of the Cantor Bar used to generate the columns.