70 resultados para Model-predictive control (MPC)
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Three calves experimentally infected with Schistosoma mansoni, and passing viable eggs in feces, as well as 5 normal calves (coming from a non-endemic area for schistosomiasis) kept as controls, were maintained in an enclosure (850 m² in area). In this enclosure, a tank with water received 500 laboratory reared Biomphalaria glabrata. All the control calves were infected for a period ranging from 79 to 202 days after the beginning of the experiment, and afterwards presented viable S. mansoni eggs in feces. The mean worm recovery was 555. The snail population increased throughout the experimental period, showing a high number of B. glabrata infected with S. mansoni (42% on average). According to the present study, bovine has been suggested as having potentially a role in the maintenance of the life cycle of S. mansoni
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The efficacy of flucytosine (5-FC) and fluconazole (FLU) association in the treatment of a murine experimental model of cryptococcosis, was evaluated. Seven groups of 10 Balb C mice each, were intraperitoneally inoculated with 10(7) cells of Cryptococcus neoformans. Six groups were allocated to receive 5-FC (300 mg/kg) and FLU (16 mg/ kg), either combined and individually, by daily gavage beginning 5 days after the infection, for 2 and 4 weeks. One group received distilled water and was used as control. The evaluation of treatments was based on: survival time; macroscopic examination of brain, lungs, liver and spleen at autopsy; presence of capsulated yeasts in microscopic examination of wet preparations of these organs and cultures of brain homogenate. 5-FC and FLU, individually or combined, significantly prolonged the survival time of the treated animals with respect to the control group (p<0.01). Animals treated for 4 weeks survived significantly longer than those treated for 2 weeks (p<0.01). No significant differences between the animals treated with 5-FC and FLU combined or separately were observed in the survival time and morphological parameters. The association of 5-FC and FLU does not seem to be more effective than 5-FC or FLU alone, in the treatment of this experimental model of cryptococcosis.
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OBJECTIVES: As a starting point, a vast variety of 200 technical papers and documents published during the ten years 1999-2008, from Brazilian and international organizations dedicated to the control of leprosy, was taken. A study was then undertaken to investigate its future evolutive possibilities by employing resources obtained from scenario analyses. DESIGN: The methodological reconstruction in use was of a qualitative nature, based on a bibliographic review and content analysis techniques. The latter were employed in a documental, categorical, contingent, frequency-based format, in compliance with appropriate and pertinent conditions. RESULTS: Nowadays, important elements on epidemiological and operational aspects have been regained, as well as respective perspectives. CONCLUSIONS: A projection is made towards the fact that the maintenance of the disease's present incidence levels constitute economic and sanitary challenges that confront issues ranging from the neoliberal model of global societal organization to specific competences of actions taken by health teams in the field.
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There is not an experimental model of localized cutaneous leishmaniasis (LCL) caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana. The aim of the present study was to characterize the clinical and histological features of Peromyscus yucatanicus experimentally infected with L. (L.) mexicana. A total of 54 P. yucatanicus (groups of 18) were inoculated with 1x10(6) promastigotes of L. (L.) mexicana in the base of the tail. They were euthanized at three and six months post experimental infection. The control group was inoculated with RPMI-1640. The predominant clinical sign observed was a single ulcerated lesion in 27.77% (5/18) and in 11.11% (2/18) P. yucatanicus at three and six months respectively. The histological pattern described as chronic granulomatous inflammation with or without necrosis was found in 7/7 (100%) biopsies of euthanized P. yucatanicus at three (n = 5) and six (n = 2) months, respectively. These results resembled clinical and histological features caused by L. (L.) mexicana in humans, and support the possibility to employ P. yucatanicus as a novel experimental model to study LCL caused by this parasite.
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The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.
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This epidemiological investigation examines the impact of several environmental sanitation conditions and hygiene practices on diarrhea occurrence among children under five years of age living in an urban area. The case-control design was employed; 997 cases and 999 controls were included in the investigation. Cases were defined as children with diarrhea and controls were randomly selected among children under five years of age. After logistic regression adjustment, the following variables were found to be significantly associated with diarrhea: washing and purifying fruit and vegetables; presence of wastewater in the street; refuse storage, collection and disposal; domestic water reservoir conditions; feces disposal from swaddles; presence of vectors in the house and flooding in the lot. The estimates of the relative risks reached values up to 2.87. The present study revealed the feasibility of developing and implementing an adequate model to establish intervention priorities in the field of environmental sanitation.
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Introduction Surgical site infections (SSIs) often manifest after patients are discharged and are missed by hospital-based surveillance. Methods We conducted a case-reference study nested in a prospective cohort of patients from six surgical specialties in a teaching hospital. The factors related to SSI were compared for cases identified during the hospital stay and after discharge. Results Among 3,427 patients, 222 (6.4%) acquired an SSI. In 138 of these patients, the onset of the SSI occurred after discharge. Neurological surgery and the use of steroids were independently associated with a greater likelihood of SSI diagnosis during the hospital stay. Conclusions Our results support the idea of a specialty-based strategy for post-discharge SSI surveillance.
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Many conditions are associated with hyperglycemia in preterm neonates because they are very susceptible to changes in carbohydrate homeostasis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of hyperglycemia in preterm infants undergoing glucose infusion during the first week of life, and to enumerate the main variables predictive of hyperglycemia. This prospective study (during 1994) included 40 preterm neonates (gestational age <37 weeks); 511 determinations of glycemic status were made in these infants (average 12.8/infant), classified by gestational age, birth weight, glucose infusion rate and clinical status at the time of determination (based on clinical and laboratory parameters). The clinical status was classified as stable or unstable, as an indication of the stability or instability of the mechanisms governing glucose homeostasis at the time of determination of blood glucose; 59 episodes of hyperglycemia (11.5%) were identified. A case-control study was used (case = hyperglycemia; control = normoglycemia) to derive a model for predicting glycemia. The risk factors considered were gestational age (<=31 vs. >31 weeks), birth weight (<=1500 vs. >1500 g), glucose infusion rate (<=6 vs. >6 mg/kg/min) and clinical status (stable vs. unstable). Multivariate analysis by logistic regression gave the following mathematical model for predicting the probability of hyperglycemia: 1/exp{-3.1437 + 0.5819(GA) + 0.9234(GIR) + 1.0978(Clinical status)} The main predictive variables in our study, in increasing order of importance, were gestational age, glucose infusion rate and, the clinical status (stable or unstable) of the preterm newborn infant. The probability of hyperglycemia ranged from 4.1% to 36.9%.
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PURPOSE: In previous papers, we described a new experimental model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia in rabbits, and we also reported noninvasive therapeutic strategies for prevention of the functional and structural immaturity of the lungs associated with this defect. In addition to lung hypoplasia, pulmonary hypertension, biochemical, and structural immaturity of the lungs, the hemodynamics of infants and animals with congenital diaphragmatic hernia are markedly altered. Hence, cardiac hypoplasia has been implicated as a possible cause of death in patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and it is hypothesized to be a probable consequence of fetal mediastinal compression by the herniated viscera. Cardiac hypoplasia has also been reported in lamb and rat models of congenital diaphragmatic hernia. The purpose of the present experiment was to verify the occurrence of heart hypoplasia in our new model of surgically produced congenital diaphragmatic hernia in fetal rabbits. METHODS: Twelve pregnant New Zealand rabbits underwent surgery on gestational day 24 or 25 (normal full gestational time - 31 to 32 days) to create left-sided diaphragmatic hernias in 1 or 2 fetuses per each doe. On gestational day 30, all does again underwent surgery, and the delivered fetuses were weighed and divided into 2 groups: control (non-surgically treated fetuses) (n = 12) and congenital diaphragmatic hernia (n = 9). The hearts were collected, weighed, and submitted for histologic and histomorphometric studies. RESULTS: During necropsy, it was noted that in all congenital diaphragmatic hernia fetuses, the left lobe of the liver herniated throughout the surgically created defect and occupied the left side of the thorax, with the deviation of the heart to the right side, compressing the left lung; consequently, this lung was smaller than the right one. The body weights of the animals were not altered by congenital diaphragmatic hernia, but heart weights were decreased in comparison to control fetuses. The histomorphometric analysis demonstrated that congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted a significant decrease in the ventricular wall thickness and an increase in the interventricular septum thickness. CONCLUSION: Heart hypoplasia occurs in a rabbit experimental model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia. This model may be utilized for investigations in therapeutic strategies that aim towards the prevention or the treatment of heart hypoplasia caused by congenital diaphragmatic hernia.
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This paper discusses models, associations and causation in psychiatry. The different types of association (linear, positive, negative, exponential, partial, U shaped relationship, hidden and spurious) between variables involved in mental disorders are presented as well as the use of multiple regression analysis to disentangle interrelatedness amongst multiple variables. A useful model should have internal consistency, external validity and predictive power; be dynamic in order to accommodate new sound knowledge; and should fit facts rather than they other way around. It is argued that whilst models are theoretical constructs they also convey a style of reasoning and can change clinical practice. Cause and effect are complex phenomena in that the same cause can yield different effects. Conversely, the same effect can have a different range of causes. In mental disorders and human behaviour there is always a chain of events initiated by the indirect and remote cause; followed by intermediate causes; and finally the direct and more immediate cause. Causes of mental disorders are grouped as those: (i) which are necessary and sufficient; (ii) which are necessary but not sufficient; and (iii) which are neither necessary nor sufficient, but when present increase the risk for mental disorders.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether apolipoproteins A-I (Apo A-I) and B (Apo B) have, higher ensitivity (SN), specificity (SP) and positive predictive value (PPV) than lipoproteins (LP), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), and triglycerides (TGL) in assessing the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: This is a transversal case-control study of 241 patients, who were divided into two groups: 1) 145 patients with CHD, and 2) 96 patients without coronary disease. A model of logistic regression to evaluate the relation between the LPs and CHD was developed in which variables with a p-alpha <0.1 were included. RESULTS: Apo A-I levels were higher in the patients without CHD, (OR 2.08, CI 1.20-3.57). There were no statistical differences between the values of Apo A-I and the remaining lipid fractions (Apo A-I: 67%; Apo B: 100%; PPV: TC= 71%; TGC=71%; HDL=71%; LDL=71%). The costs of the tests in Reais were as follows: Apo A-I: R$ 56.60; Apo B-100: R$ 56.60; TC: R$ 9.94; HDL: R$ 21.30; LDL: R$ 28.40; TGL: R$ 14.20. CONCLUSION: Levels of Apo A-I and Apo B have no advantage over conventional lipoproteins in predicting the risk of CHD, despite the statistical association between Apo A-I and CHD; in addition, their costs are higher than those of the conventional lipoproteins.
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OBJECTIVE: To determine in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy the value of QT interval dispersion for identifying the induction of sustained ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study or the risk of sudden cardiac death. METHODS: We assessed QT interval dispersion in the 12-lead electrocardiogram of 26 patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. We analyzed its association with sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death, and in 16 controls similar in age and sex. RESULTS: (mean ± SD). QT interval dispersion: patients = 53.8±14.1ms; control group = 35.0±10.6ms, p=0.001. Patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia: 52.5±13.8ms; without induction of ventricular tachycardia: 57.5±12.8ms, p=0.420. In a mean follow-up period of 41±11 months, five sudden cardiac deaths occurred. QT interval dispersion in this group was 62.0±17.8, and in the others it was 51.9±12.8ms, p=0.852. Using a cutoff > or = 60ms to define an increase in the degree of the QT interval dispersion, we were able to identify patients at risk of sudden cardiac death with a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 57%, and positive and negative predictive values of 25% and 85%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy have a significant increase in the degree of QT interval dispersion when compared with the healthy population. However it, did not identify patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study, showing a very low predictive value for defining the risk of sudden cardiac death in the population studied.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the predictive factors of complications after implantation of coronary stents in a consecutive cohort study. METHODS: Clinical and angiographic characteristics related to the procedure were analyzed, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction, urgent surgery, new angioplasty, death) in the in-hospital phase were recorded. Data were stored in an Access database and analyzed by using the SPSS 6.0 statistical program and a stepwise backwards multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: One thousand eighteen (mean age of 61±11 years, 29% females) patients underwent 1,070 stent implantations. The rate of angiographic success was 96.8%, the rate of clinical success was 91%, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications was 7.9%. The variables independently associated with major cardiovascular complications, with their respective odds ratio (OR) were: rescue stent, OR = 5.1 (2.7-9.6); filamentary stent, OR = 4.5 (2.2-9.1); first-generation tubular stent, OR = 2.4 (1.2-4.6); multiple stents, OR = 3 (1.6-5.6); complexity of the lesion, OR = 2.4 (1.1-5.1); thrombus, OR = 2 (1.1-3.5). CONCLUSION: The results stress the importance of angiographic variables and techniques in the risk of complications and draw attention to the influence of the stent's design on the result of the procedure.
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Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.