18 resultados para Model selection criteria
Resumo:
ABSTRACT We propose a model to explain how contract terms are selected in the presence of a form of economic power: contract power. The orange juice sector is used to illustrate an analysis that demonstrates the effects of contract power on the economic organization of the sector. We define contract power as the ability to exploit contractual gaps or failures of contractual provisions, which are strategically left incomplete. Empirical evidence from content analysis of antitrust documents supports the logic of contract power in the orange juice sector in three forms: avoiding changes to payment methods from weight to solid contents (quality); using information asymmetries to manipulate indexes that calculate the formula of orange prices; and deliberately harvesting oranges late in order to dehydrate the fruit, which consequently reduces weight and price. The paper contributes to understanding the selection of contract terms and the debate about how antitrust offices can deal with this issue.
Resumo:
Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.
Resumo:
Field studies were established in Zavalla and Oliveros, Argentina, during four years in order to optimize Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers.) chemical control by means of the thermal calendar model in comparison with other criteria (weed height or days after sowing). The effect of three application dates of postemergence herbicides was determined by visual control, density of tillers originated from rhizome bud regrowth, and from crown and shoot bud regrowth, and soybean yield. Following the thermal calendar model criterion, applications during the second date afforded the best control. Weed height for the first date showed little variability between experiments but was highly variable in the second and third application dates, achieving in some cases values greater than 120 cm. For all years, no significant differences were detected for crop yield between the first and second application dates, and yields were always lower for the third date. The greatest rhizome bud regrowth was observed for the earliest application date and the highest crown and shoot bud regrowth was determined for the last application date. Parameters associated with control efficiency showed the best behaviour for the second date. However, plant height at this moment may interfere with herbicide application and the variability exhibited by this parameter highlights the risk of determining control timing using only one decision criterion.