A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high) rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more) virulent strain prevails.

Malaria transmission model for different levels of acquired immunity and temperature-dependent parameters (vector)

OBJECTIVE: Describe the overall transmission of malaria through a compartmental model, considering the human host and mosquito vector. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed based on the following parameters: human host immunity, assuming the existence of acquired immunity and immunological memory, which boosts the protective response upon reinfection; mosquito vector, taking into account that the average period of development from egg to adult mosquito and the extrinsic incubation period of parasites (transformation of infected but non-infectious mosquitoes into infectious mosquitoes) are dependent on the ambient temperature. RESULTS: The steady state equilibrium values obtained with the model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio in terms of the model's parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio, one of the most important epidemiological variables.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Towards a Unified Theory of Health-Disease: I. Health as a complex model-object

Theory building is one of the most crucial challenges faced by basic, clinical and population research, which form the scientific foundations of health practices in contemporary societies. The objective of the study is to propose a Unified Theory of Health-Disease as a conceptual tool for modeling health-disease-care in the light of complexity approaches. With this aim, the epistemological basis of theoretical work in the health field and concepts related to complexity theory as concerned to health problems are discussed. Secondly, the concepts of model-object, multi-planes of occurrence, modes of health and disease-illness-sickness complex are introduced and integrated into a unified theoretical framework. Finally, in the light of recent epistemological developments, the concept of Health-Disease-Care Integrals is updated as a complex reference object fit for modeling health-related processes and phenomena.

Model for the evaluation of drug-dispensing services in primary health care

OBJECTIVE To develop a model for evaluating the efficacy of drug-dispensing service in primary health care. METHODS An efficacy criterion was adopted to determine the level of achievement of the service objectives. The evaluation model was developed on the basis of a literature search and discussions with experts. The applicability test of the model was conducted in 15 primary health care units in the city of Florianópolis, state of Santa Catarina, in 2010, and data were recorded in structured and pretested questionnaires. RESULTS The model developed was evaluated using five dimensions of analysis for analysis. The model was suitable for evaluating service efficacy and helped to identify the critical points of each service dimension. CONCLUSIONS Adaptations to the data collection technique may be required to adjust for the reality and needs of each situation. The evaluation of the drug-dispensing service should promote adequate access to medications supplied through the public health system.

Sensibility of different larval stages of Schistosoma mansoni to the Larvae Disappearing Reaction (LDR) in murine schistosomiasis

The delay produced by drug, in the process of cercaria-schistosomulum transformation, was used to verify the sensibility of different larval stages to the host cell immune responses, in vivo. The peritoneal cavity of mice, a model used for in vivo observations, was choiced for the experiments. As well characterized schistosomules, cercariae and larvae in the process of transformation were coated and arrested by host cells, and could not be recovered by simple saline washings. After 10-²M EDTA saline washings, they were released alive, with good vitality and movements. Thus, different kind of larvae in the process of adaptation of the cercaria to the host are strongly coated by immune cells, but these fail to kill the invading organisms, at least during a few hours after invasion.

Prevention of electrocardiographic and histopathologic alterations in the murine model of Chagas' disease by preinoculation of an attenuated Trypanosoma cruzi strain

The effects of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi on the electrocardiographic tracings of mice were studied in 4.groups of animals: (1) normal; (2) infected with a pathogenic T. cruzi strain (TS COB); (3) immunized with 3 intraperitoneal inocula of 10(6) attenuated T. cruzi epimastigotes (TCC) and (4) immunized-infected, which sequentially received the treatments of groups 3 and 2. Infection and protection were confirmed by xenodiagnosis and histopathology. Isolated alterations such as extrasystolia, 1st degree atrioventricular block, arrhythmia and ST elevation were observed in normal as well as infected mice. However, tracings taken repeatedly on each mouse over a 293 day period revealed a set of alterations which were more frequently seen in infected (14/22) than in normal (4/27) animals (p = 0.00048). These alterations consisted of supraventricular tachycardia, sinus bradycardia and persisting, first degree AV blocks, often associated to pacemaker changes. Inoculation of attenuated T. cruzi (group 3) did not increase these alterations (2/27 mice) but significantly prevented their development after challenge with the pathogenic strain (1/19 versus 14/22 mice, p = 0.000095). Thus, preimmunization reduced not only parasitemia but also a pathogenic consequence of T. cruzi infection. This evidence is relevant for immunoprevention studies against Chagas' disease.

Activity of two different triazoles in a murine model of paracoccidioidomycosis

A new orally absorbable triazole (Schering 39304) with a long serum half-life in man (60 hours), was tried in a murine model of progressive paracoccidioidomycosis and compared with itraconazole, another triazole which has proven effective in this mycosis. Only 15% of the infected, untreated mice survived while 53 to 75% of the animals receiving itraconazole survived. Mice treated with Schering 39304 exhibited higher (86 - 100%) survival rates. Statistically, the 5 mg/kg Sch 39304 was superior to the 50 mg/kg itraconazole dose. Lung cultures showed that 20 mg/kg/day of Sch achieved sterilization of the infectious foci. These results indicate that the new triazole will have a place in the treatment of paracoccidioidomycosis

Gastric acid secretion response in the Cebus apella: a monkey model of chronic Chagas disease

The objective was to study the secretory pattern, both basal and stimulated either by histamine (0.1 mg/kg) or pentagastrin (64 ug/kg) in eighteen Cebus apella monkeys chronically infected with different T. cruzi strains (CA1, n=10; Colombian, n=4 and Tulahuen, n=4) and to describe the morphological findings in the gastrointestinal tract in twelve infected (6 sacrificed and 6 spontaneously dead) and four healthy monkeys. All infected monkeys and 35 healthy ones were evaluated by contrast X-ray examination. No differences were observed in basal acid output between control and infected groups. Animals infected with the Tulahuen and Colombian strains showed significant lower values of peak acid output in response to histamine or pentagastrin (p<0.01 and p<0.05 respectively; "t" test) in comparison to the controls. Barium contrast studies showed enlargement and dilatation of the colon in three infected animals. Histopathological lesions were seen in 75% of the autopsied animals either in colon alone (33%) or both, in colon and esophagus (42%). The normal secretion observed in the CA1 infected group could be due to a lower virulence of the strain, a lower esophagic tropism or the necessity of a longer post-infection time to cause lesions.

Transmission of Schistosoma mansoni under experimental conditions using the bovine - Biomphalaria glabrata - bovine model

Three calves experimentally infected with Schistosoma mansoni, and passing viable eggs in feces, as well as 5 normal calves (coming from a non-endemic area for schistosomiasis) kept as controls, were maintained in an enclosure (850 m² in area). In this enclosure, a tank with water received 500 laboratory reared Biomphalaria glabrata. All the control calves were infected for a period ranging from 79 to 202 days after the beginning of the experiment, and afterwards presented viable S. mansoni eggs in feces. The mean worm recovery was 555. The snail population increased throughout the experimental period, showing a high number of B. glabrata infected with S. mansoni (42% on average). According to the present study, bovine has been suggested as having potentially a role in the maintenance of the life cycle of S. mansoni