167 resultados para Mathematical studies


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A survey of adult behaviour of Culex (Culex) species was carried out from August 1992 through December 1993 in a human modified (anthropic) environment in the Ribeira Valley, S.Paulo State, Brazil. Culex nigripalpus dominated the catches at several sites and it's tendency to increase in the anthropic environment became quite clear. Nevertheless no high level of synanthropy was demonstrated. So it seems that the mosquito may have a restricted role in natural arbovirus cycles. Nonetheless, Cx. nigripalpus must be considered a potential vector of arboviruses, especially St. Louis encephalitis virus outside dwellings.

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An. (Ker.) cruzii and An. (Ker.) bellator were monitored by the use of human bait and Shannon trap collections during a one-year period in 1994. Indoor and outdoor collections were made on human bait and inside the forest environment a Shannon trap was used. Both were undertaken in the evening crepuscular period. Results showed a greater abundance of An. cruzii in the forest, where as An. bellator was more abundant in the domiciliary environment. Through the application of the Polovodova method an age grading was established. Computing the parous and nulliparous females with Christopher's Stage III and above, more than 30.0% of blood-seeking specimens of both anophelines had had a previous blood meal. The higher abundance of An. bellator as compared with that of An. cruzii in the domiciliary environment may be explained by the influence of the neighboring low-lying coastal islands of the estuary system.

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A mathematical model for the purpose of analysing the dynamic of the populations of infected hosts anf infected mosquitoes when the populations of mosquitoes are periodic in time is here presented. By the computation of a parameter lambda (the spectral radius of a certain monodromy matrix) one can state that either the infection peters out naturally) (lambda <= 1) or if lambda > 1 the infection becomes endemic. The model generalizes previous models for malaria by considering the case of periodic coefficients; it is also a variation of that for gonorrhea. The main motivation for the consideration of this present model was the recent studies on mosquitoes at an experimental rice irrigation system, in the South-Eastern region of Brazil.

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Results obtained with Anopheles albitarsis s.l. catches mainly performed through human bait at the Ribeira Valley region, SP (Brazil), are reported. Two species of the complex were recognized, namely An. albitarsis s.s. and species B. This latter predominated both in the rice fields and in the dwelling environments. The crepuscular rhythms showed an unimodal sunset pattern with most blood-seeking females caught during dusk. The absence of differences between indoor and outdoor behavior was confirmed for both species of the complex.

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OBJECTIVE: It is an accepted fact that confinement conditions increase the risk of some infections related to sexual and/or injecting drugs practices. Mathematical techniques were applied to estimate time-dependent incidence densities of HIV infection among inmates. METHODS: A total of 631 prisoners from a Brazilian prison with 4,900 inmates at that time were interviewed and their blood drawn. Risky behavior for HIV infection was analyzed, and serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis were performed, intended as surrogates for parenteral and sexual HIV transmission, respectively. Mathematical techniques were used to estimate the incidence density ratio, as related to the time of imprisonment. RESULTS: Prevalence were: HIV -- 16%; HCV -- 34%; and syphilis -- 18%. The main risk behaviors related to HIV infection were HCV prevalence (OR=10.49) and the acknowledged use of injecting drugs (OR=3.36). Incidence density ratio derivation showed that the risk of acquiring HIV infection increases with the time of imprisonment, peaking around three years after incarceration. CONCLUSIONS: The correlation between HIV and HCV seroprevalence and the results of the mathematical analysis suggest that HIV transmission in this population is predominantly due to parenteral exposure by injecting drug, and that it increases with time of imprisonment.

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INTRODUCTION: After the era of rubella vaccine, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of the most frequently causes of mental retardation and congenital deafness. Seroepidemiological studies are necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease. The purpose of the study was to quantify the transmission rate of CMV disease in a community in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Using ELISA test (IgG), a retrospective serological survey looking for CMV antibodies was performed in an non-immunized community. Frozen sera from 443 individuals, randomly selected by cluster sampling technique in the town of Caieiras, São Paulo, were collected from November 1990 to January 1991. Seroprevalence was stratified by age (0-40 years). Mathematical techniques were applied to determine the age-dependent decay function of maternal antibodies during the first year of life, the age-dependent seroprevalence function and the force of infection for CMV in this community. RESULTS: It was observed a descending phase of seropositivity in the first 9 months, but changes in antibody titration were observed between 8 months old and one year of age. The average age of the first infection was 5.02 months of age and 19.84 years, when the age-dependent seroprevalence and the force of infection were analyzed between 10 months of age and 10 years of age and from 10 to 40 years old, respectively. CONCLUSION: CMV infection is highly prevalent among the population studied and infection occurs in the first year of life. This study shows that most women at reproductive age are vulnerable to the first infection, increasing the risk for congenital infection.

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OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

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OBJECTIVE: Selecting controls is one of the most difficult tasks in the design of case-control studies. Hospital controls may be inadequate and random controls drawn from the base population may be unavailable. The aim was to assess the use of hospital visitors as controls in a case-control study on the association of organochlorinated compounds and other risk factors for breast cancer conducted in the main hospital of the "Instituto Nacional de Câncer" -- INCA (National Cancer Institute) in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). METHODS: The study included 177 incident cases and 377 controls recruited among female visitors. Three different models of control group composition were compared: Model 1, with all selected visitors; Model 2, excluding women visiting relatives with breast cancer; and Model 3, excluding all women visiting relatives with any type of cancer. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to test the associations. RESULTS: Age-adjusted OR for breast cancer associated with risk factors other than family history of cancer, except smoking and breast size, were similar in the three models. Regarding family history of all cancers, except for breast cancer, there was a decreased risk in Models 1 and 2, while in Model 3 there was an increased risk, but not statistically significant. Family history of breast cancer was a risk factor in Models 2 and 3, but no association was found in Model 1. In multivariate analysis a significant risk of breast cancer was found when there was a family history of breast cancer in Models 2 and 3 but not in Model 1. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that while investigating risk factors unrelated to family history of cancer, the use of hospital visitors as controls may be a valid and feasible alternative.

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OBJETIVO: Obter validade interna, de construto e de critério para a escala Center for Epidemiological Studies - Depression, em idosos. MÉTODOS: O instrumento foi aplicado a 903 idosos residentes em Juiz de Fora, Estado de Minas Gerais, entre os anos de 2002-2003. Os resultados foram comparados com a versão brasileira da Geriatric Depression Scale, aplicado a uma subamostra de 446 respondentes. A consistência interna das duas escalas foi aferida pelo coeficiente alfa de Cronbach, calculado para os itens em sua totalidade e para os itens de cada fator obtido para o instrumento avaliado. Para avaliar a validade de construto, seus 20 itens foram submetidos à análise fatorial exploratória a fim de conhecer o padrão de variação conjunta dos itens e a variância explicada por cada fator. RESULTADOS: O instrumento revelou índices satisfatórios de validade interna (alfa=0,860), sensibilidade (74,6%) e especificidade (73,6%), para nota de corte >11. Entretanto, apontou freqüência relativamente alta de falsos positivos em comparação à Geriatric Depression Scale: de 33,8% vs. 15%. A análise fatorial exploratória do instrumento gerou estrutura fatorial com três fatores: afetos negativos, dificuldades de iniciar comportamentos e afetos positivos. CONCLUSÕES: O instrumento mostrou-se psicometricamente adequado para uso entre idosos. Entretanto, estudos adicionais de natureza longitudinal e transversal, desenvolvidos em diferentes contextos, poderão esclarecer os efeitos de variáveis somáticas e situacionais sobre os resultados desse instrumento em pessoas idosas.

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Two cross-sectional studies on schistosomiasis mansoni were done in Comercinho, Minas Gerais (Brazil), at an interval of 7 years. In 1974 and 1981 feces examinations (KATO-KATZ method) were done in 89 and 90% of the population (about 1,500 inhabitants) and clinical examinations were done in 78 and 92% of the patients who excreted Schistosoma mansoni eggs in the feces, respectively. The rate of infection by S. mansoni did not change (69.9% in 1974 and 70.4% in 1981), but the geometrical mean of eggs per gram of feces (431 ± 4 and 334 ± 4, respectively) and the rate of splenomegaly (11 and 7%, respectively) decreased significantly in 1981, when compared to 1974. This reduction was observed only in the central zones of the town (zones 1-2) where the rate of dwellings with piped water increased from 17 to 44%. In the surroundings (zones 3-4), where the proportion of houses with piped water did not change significantly between 1974 (10%) and 1981 (7%), the geometrical mean of S. mansoni eggs and the rate of splenomegaly did not change either.

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Right ventricular endomyocardial biopsies were studied in 30 patients, 15 with myocardiopathy from chronic Chagas'disease and 15 with idiopathic congestive myocardiopathy; five other myocardial samples were taken at necropsies of patients with chronic Chagas' disease. The authors tried to establish by means of direct immunofluorescence techniques whether there were immunoglobulins G, A and M, fibrinogen and C3 complement deposition in the myocardium; only one of these 30 patients exhibited a positive reaction to IgG, it was a patient with idiopathic congestive myocardiopathy. All fragments from patients with Chagas' disease showed no response to any of the fluorescent conjugates. These findings do not support the idea that anti-myoeardial antibodies have pathogenic importance in the evolution of dilated or chagasic myocardiopathies.

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Sera of persons of different age groups collected in 1976, 1978 and 1979 were tested for the presence of HI antibodies against various strains of the H3N2 and H1N1 subtypes of influenza virus. The occurrence of infection by H3N2 subtype was recorded during the 1976-1978 period but in 1979, circulation of this subtype of virus was limited. The prevalence of antibody against A/São Paulo/1/78 (H1N1) was significantly higher than that of antibody to A/USSB/90/77 (HIND in 1978. However in 1979 the predominant strain was A/USSR/90/77 (HIND. Persons under 20 years of age were the most affected by H1N1 subtype. Antibodies to H1N1 subtype were detected in sera of individuals older than 20 years in 1976, before the re-emergence of this strain. Serological results indicate that infections by H3N2 subtype in 1978 occurred in 65.4% of young children (0-4 year group). About 47.0% of children from the 0-4 year group had antibodies to H1N1 subtype in 1979. Antibodies to swine influenza virus were detected in 60% of 60+ year old people.

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A radiometric assay system has been used to study oxidation patterns of (1-14C) fatty acids by drug-susceptible and drug-resistant organisms of the genus Mycobacterium. Two strains of M. tuberculosis susceptible to all drugs, H37Rv and Erdman, were used. Drug-resistant organisms included in this investigation were M. tuberculosis H37Rv resistant to 5 ug/ml isoniazid, M. bovis, M. avium, M. intracellular, M. kansasii and M. chelonei. The organisms were inoculated in sterile reaction vials containing liquid 7H9 medium, 10% ADC enrichment and 1.0 uCi of one of the (1-14C) fatty acids (butyric, hexánoic, octanoic, decanoic, lauric, myristic, palmitic, stearic, oleic, linoleic, linolenic). Vials were incubated at 37°C and the 14CO2 envolved was measured daily for 3 days with a Bactec R-301 instrument. Although each individual organism displayed a different pattern of fatty oxidation, these patterns were not distinctive enough for identification of the organism. No combination of fatty acids nor preferential oxidation of long chain or of short chain fatty acids were able to separate susceptible from resistant organisms. Further investigation with a larger number of drug susceptible mycobacteria including assimilation studies and oxidation of other substrates may be required to achieve a distinction between drug-susceptible and drug-resistant mycobacteria.

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An in vitro assay system that included automated radiometric quantification of 14CO2 released as a result of oxidation of 14C- substrates was applied for studying the metabolic activity of M. tuberculosis under various experimental conditions. These experiments included the study of a) mtabolic pathways, b) detection times for various inoculum sizes, c) effect of filtration on reproducibility of results, d) influence of stress environment e) minimal inhibitory concentrations for isoniazid, streptomycin, ethambutol and rifampin, and f) generation times of M. tuberculosis and M. bovis. These organisms were found to metabolize 14C-for-mate, (U-14C) acetate, (U-14C) glycerol, (1-14C) palmitic acid, 1-14C) lauric acid, (U-14C) L-malic acid, (U-14C) D-glucose, and (U-14C) D-glucose, but not (1-14C) L-glucose, (U-14C) glycine, or (U-14C) pyruvate to 14CO2. By using either 14C-for-mate, (1-14C) palmitic acid, or (1-14C) lauric acid, 10(7) organisms/vial could be detected within 24 48 hours and as few as 10 organisms/vial within 16-20 days. Reproducible results could be obtained without filtering the bacterial suspension, provided that the organisms were grown in liquid 7H9 medium with 0.05% polysorbate 80 and homogenized prior to the study. Drugs that block protein synthesis were found to have lower minimal inhibitory concentrations with the radiometric method when compared to the conventional agar dilution method. The mean generation time obtained for M. bovis and different strains of M. tuberculosis with various substrates was 9 ± 1 hours.