The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Diversity of Ephemeroptera (Insecta) of the Serra da Mantiqueira and Serra do Mar, southeastern Brazil

The aim of this study was to inventory the mayfly fauna, based on nymphal and alate stages, in Serra da Mantiqueira and in Serra do Mar, São Paulo State, as well as to present information about habitats used by the genera. Nymphs were collected in several streams and mesohabitats with a Surber sampler and the winged stages with light attraction methods, entomological nets, and Malaise traps. In all, eight families and 33 genera were recorded, representing a very significant portion of the Brazilian fauna (80% of families and 49% of genera). Furthermore, it was possible to identify 11 species, of which two are new records for the state: Tricorythodes santarita Traver and Caenis reissi Malzacher. Despite the high diversity recorded, the accumulation curves presented an ascending form, indicating an increase in the number of genera with additional sampling effort. The high richness found in these areas are in agreement with the high biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest biome and the sampling effort employed, which included the use of different methods, the collection of both nymphs and winged stages, and the sampling of a large area with diverse streams and habitats.

Estabilidade temporal do conteúdo de água em três condições de uso do solo, em uma bacia hidrográfica da região da Serra da Mantiqueira, MG

A descrição de processos hidrológicos é relativamente complexa, principalmente da variação do conteúdo de água no solo, devido à influência de fatores edáficos, topográficos, climáticos e de vegetação. Em condições de campo, a estimativa do conteúdo de água no solo requer um plano de amostragem adequado, considerando as variações no tempo e no espaço. Visando representar adequadamente o conteúdo de água no solo com reduzido esforço amostral e custo, o conceito de estabilidade temporal tem sido muitas vezes empregado. Este estudo foi realizado com o objetivo de analisar a estabilidade temporal do conteúdo de água na camada superficial do solo (0-0,20 m de profundidade), sob diferentes usos do solo, em uma bacia hidrográfica experimental da região da Serra da Mantiqueira, Minas Gerais, nos períodos de estiagem e chuvoso, estimando os pontos mais representativos para essa determinação. Houve maior estabilidade temporal do conteúdo de água no solo na área de vegetação de várzea, menor na área ocupada por Mata Atlântica e intermediária na área de pastagem. Ocorreram, também, variações significativas da diferença relativa média entre os períodos de medição, concluindo-se que as características de cada área devem ser consideradas particularmente para escolha dos pontos. Na área de pastagem, foi possível identificar apenas um ponto para monitoramento tanto para o período chuvoso como para o de estiagem. Por outro lado, nas áreas de Mata Atlântica e vegetação de várzea foram identificados dois pontos, sendo um especificamente para o período chuvoso e outro para o período de estiagem, sendo recomendada uma análise individual específica para cada estação.

Pedological and isotopic relations of a highland tropical peatland, Mountain Range of the Espinhaço Meridional (Brazil)

The evolution of organic matter sources in soil is related to climate and vegetation dynamics in the past recorded in paleoenvironmental Quaternary deposits such as peatlands. For this reason, a Histosol of the mineralotrophic peatland from the Pau-de-Fruta Special Protection Area - SPA, Espinhaço Meridional, State of Minas Gerais, was described and characterized to evidence the soil constituent materials and properties as related to changes in environmental conditions, supported by the isotopic and elementary characterization of soil C and N and 14C ages. Samples were collected in a depression at 1,350 m asl, where Histosols are possibly more developed due to the great thickness (505 cm). Nowadays, the area is colonized by vegetation physiognomies of the Cerrado Biome, mainly rocky and wet fields (Campo Rupestre and Campo Úmido), aside from fragments of Semidecidual Seasonal Forest, called Capões forests. The results this study showed that early the genesis of the analyzed soil profile showed a high initial contribution of mostly herbaceous organic matter before 8,090 ± 30 years BP (14C age). In the lower-mid Holocene, between 8,090 ± 30 years AP (14C age) to ± 4,100 years BP (interpolated age), the vegetation gradually became more woody, with forest expansion, possibly due to increased humidity, suggesting the existence of a more woody Cerrado in the past than at present. Drier climate conditions than the current were concluded ± 2,500 years BP (interpolated age) and that after 430 years BP (14C age) the forest gave way to grassland, predominantly. After the dry season, humidity increased to the current conditions. Due to these climate fluctuations during the Holocene, three decomposition stages of organic matter were observed in the Histosols of this study, with prevalence of the most advanced (sapric), typical of a deposit in a highly advanced stage of pedogenetic evolution.

Least limiting water range in soil under crop rotations and chiseling

Soil water availability to plants is affected by soil compaction and other variables. The Least Limiting Water Range (LLWR) comprises soil physical variables affecting root growth and soil water availability, and can be managed by either mechanical or biological methods. There is evidence that effects of crop rotations could last longer than chiseling, so the objective of this study was to assess the effect of soil chiseling or growing cover crops under no-till (NT) on the LLWR. Crop rotations involving triticale (X Triticosecale) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus) in the fall-winter associated with millet (Pennisetum glaucum), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea) as cover crops preceding soybean (Glycine max) were repeated for three consecutive years. In the treatment with chiseling (performed only in the first year), the area was left fallow between the fall-winter and summer crops. The experiment was carried out in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil, from 2003 to 2006 on a Typic Rhodudalf. The LLWR was determined in soil samples taken from the layers 0-20 cm and 20- 40 cm, after chemical desiccation of the cover crops in December of the first and third year of the experiment. Chiseling decreases soil bulk density in the 0-20 cm soil layer, increasing the LLWR magnitude by lowering the soil water content at which penetration resistance reaches 2.0 MPa; this effect is present up to the third year after chiseling and can reach to a depth of 0.40 m. Crop rotations involving sunflower + sunn hemp, triticale + millet and triticale + sunn hemp for three years prevented soil bulk density from exceeding the critical soil bulk density in the 0- 0.20 m layer. This effect was observed to a depth of 0.40 m after three years of chiseling under crop rotations involving forage sorghum. Hence, chiseling and some crop rotations under no tillage are effective in increasing soil quality assessed by the LLWR.

Structural changes in latosols of the cerrado region: I - relationships between soil physical properties and least limiting water range

The agricultural potential of Latosols of the Brazilian Cerrado region is high, but when intensively cultivated under inappropriate management systems, the porosity can be seriously reduced, leading to rapid soil degradation. Consequently, accelerated erosion and sedimentation of springs and creeks have been observed. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate structural changes of Latosols in Rio Verde, Goiás, based on the Least Limiting Water Range (LLWR), and relationships between LLWR and other physical properties. Soil samples were collected from the B horizons of five oxidic Latosols representing the textural variability of the Latosols of the Cerrado biome. LLWR and other soil physical properties were determined at various soil compaction degrees induced by uniaxial compression. Soil compaction caused effects varying from enhanced plant growth due to higher water retention, to severe restriction of edaphic functions. Also, inverse relationships were observed between clay content and bulk density values (Bd) under different structural conditions. Bd values corresponding to critical soil macroporosity (BdcMAC) were more restrictive to a sustainable use of the studied Latosols than the critical Bd corresponding to LLWR (BdcLLWR). The high tolerable compression potential of these oxidic Latosols was related to the high aeration porosity associated to the granular structure.

Least limiting water range in assessing compaction in a Brazilian Cerrado latosol growing sugarcane

In the south-central region of Brazil, there is a trend toward reducing the sugarcane inter-harvest period and increasing traffic of heavy harvesting machinery on soil with high water content, which may intensify the compaction process. In this study, we assessed the structural changes of a distroferric Red Latosol (Oxisol) by monitoring soil water content as a function of the Least Limiting Water Range (LLWR) and quantified its effects on the crop yield and industrial quality of the first ratoon crop of sugarcane cultivars with different maturation cycles. Three cultivars (RB 83-5054, RB 84-5210 and RB 86-7515) were subjected to four levels of soil compaction brought about by a differing number of passes of a farm tractor (T0 = soil not trafficked, T2 = 2 passes, T10 = 10 passes, and T20 = 20 passes of the tractor in the same place) in a 3 × 4 factorial arrangement with three replications. The deleterious effects on the soil structure from the farm machinery traffic were limited to the surface layer (0-10 cm) of the inter-row area of the ratoon crop. The LLWR dropped to nearly zero after 20 tractor passes between the cane rows. We detected differences among the cultivars studied; cultivar RB 86-7515 stood out for its industrial processing quality, regardless of the level of soil compaction. Monitoring of soil moisture in the crop showed exposure to water stress conditions, although soil compaction did not affect the production variables of the sugarcane cultivars. We thus conclude that the absence of traffic on the plant row maintained suitable soil conditions for plant development and may have offset the harmful effects of soil compaction shown by the high values for bulk density between the rows of the sugarcane cultivars.

Quantification of the least limiting water range in an oxisol using two methodological strategies

The least limiting water range (LLWR) has been used as an indicator of soil physical quality as it represents, in a single parameter, the soil physical properties directly linked to plant growth, with the exception of temperature. The usual procedure for obtaining the LLWR involves determination of the water retention curve (WRC) and the soil resistance to penetration curve (SRC) in soil samples with undisturbed structure in the laboratory. Determination of the WRC and SRC using field measurements (in situ ) is preferable, but requires appropriate instrumentation. The objective of this study was to determine the LLWR from the data collected for determination of WRC and SRC in situ using portable electronic instruments, and to compare those determinations with the ones made in the laboratory. Samples were taken from the 0.0-0.1 m layer of a Latossolo Vermelho distrófico (Oxisol). Two methods were used for quantification of the LLWR: the traditional, with measurements made in soil samples with undisturbed structure; and in situ , with measurements of water content (θ), soil water potential (Ψ), and soil resistance to penetration (SR) through the use of sensors. The in situ measurements of θ, Ψ and SR were taken over a period of four days of soil drying. At the same time, samples with undisturbed structure were collected for determination of bulk density (BD). Due to the limitations of measurement of Ψ by tensiometer, additional determinations of θ were made with a psychrometer (in the laboratory) at the Ψ of -1500 kPa. The results show that it is possible to determine the LLWR by the θ, Ψ and SR measurements using the suggested approach and instrumentation. The quality of fit of the SRC was similar in both strategies. In contrast, the θ and Ψ in situ measurements, associated with those measured with a psychrometer, produced a better WRC description. The estimates of the LLWR were similar in both methodological strategies. The quantification of LLWR in situ can be achieved in 10 % of the time required for the traditional method.

BEYOND THE “LEAST LIMITING WATER RANGE”: RETHINKING SOIL PHYSICS RESEARCH IN BRAZIL

As opposed to objective definitions in soil physics, the subjective term “soil physical quality” is increasingly found in publications in the soil physics area. A supposed indicator of soil physical quality that has been the focus of attention, especially in the Brazilian literature, is the Least Limiting Water Range (RLL), translated in Portuguese as "Intervalo Hídrico Ótimo" or IHO. In this paper the four limiting water contents that define RLLare discussed in the light of objectively determinable soil physical properties, pointing to inconsistencies in the RLLdefinition and calculation. It also discusses the interpretation of RLL as an indicator of crop productivity or soil physical quality, showing its inability to consider common phenological and pedological boundary conditions. It is shown that so-called “critical densities” found by the RLL through a commonly applied calculation method are questionable. Considering the availability of robust models for agronomy, ecology, hydrology, meteorology and other related areas, the attractiveness of RLL as an indicator to Brazilian soil physicists is not related to its (never proven) effectiveness, but rather to the simplicity with which it is dealt. Determining the respective limiting contents in a simplified manner, relegating the study or concern on the actual functioning of the system to a lower priority, goes against scientific construction and systemic understanding. This study suggests a realignment of the research in soil physics in Brazil with scientific precepts, towards mechanistic soil physics, to replace the currently predominant search for empirical correlations below the state of the art of soil physics.

Least Limiting Water Range and Load Bearing Capacity of Soil under Types of Tractor-Trailers for Mechanical Harvesting of Green Sugarcane

ABSTRACT The expansion of the sugarcane industry in Brazil has intensified the mechanization of agriculture and caused effects on the soil physical quality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the limiting water range and soil bearing capacity of a Latossolo Vermelho distroférrico típico (Rhodic Hapludox) under the influence of different tractor-trailers used in mechanical sugarcane harvesting. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design with five replications. The treatments consisted of green sugarcane harvesting with: harvester without trailer (T1); harvester with two trailers with a capacity of 10 Mg each (T2); harvester with trailer with a capacity of 20 Mg (T3) and harvester and truck with trailer with a capacity of 20 Mg (10 Mg per compartment) (T4). The least limiting water range and soil bearing capacity were evaluated. The transport equipment to remove the harvested sugarcane from the field (trailer) at harvest decreased the least limiting water range, reducing the structural soil quality. The truck trailer caused the greatest impact on the soil physical properties studied. The soil load bearing capacity was unaffected by the treatments, since the pressure of the harvester (T1) exceeded the pre-consolidation pressure of the soil.

Soil compaction by machine traffic and least limiting water range related to soybean yield

The research aimed to evaluate machine traffic effect on soil compaction and the least limiting water range related to soybean cultivar yields, during two years, in a Haplustox soil. The six treatments were related to tractor (11 Mg weight) passes by the same place: T0, no compaction; and T1*, 1; T1, 1; T2, 2; T4, 4 and T6, 6. In the treatment T1*, the compaction occurred when soil was dried, in 2003/2004, and with a 4 Mg tractor in 2004/2005. Soybean yield was evaluated in relation to soil compaction during two agricultural years in completely randomized design (compaction levels); however, in the second year, there was a factorial scheme (compaction levels, with and without irrigation), with four replicates represented by 9 m² plots. In the first year, soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] cultivar IAC Foscarim 31 was cultivated without irrigation; and in the second year, IAC Foscarim 31 and MG/BR 46 (Conquista) cultivars were cultivated with and without irrigation. Machine traffic causes compaction and reduces soybean yield for soil penetration resistance between 1.64 to 2.35 MPa, and bulk density between 1.50 to 1.53 Mg m-3. Soil bulk density from which soybean cultivar yields decrease is lower than the critical one reached at least limiting water range (LLWR =/ 0).

Determination of copper at wide range concentrations using instrumental features of high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometry

This work describes a method to determine Cu at wide range concentrations in a single run without need of further dilutions employing high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometry. Different atomic lines for Cu at 324.754 nm, 327.396 nm, 222.570 nm, 249.215 nm and 224.426 nm were evaluated and main figures of merit established. Absorbance measurements at 324.754 nm, 249.215 nm and 224.426 nm allows the determination of Cu in the 0.07 - 5.0 mg L-1, 5.0 - 100 mg L-1 and 100 - 800 mg L-1 concentration intervals respectively with linear correlation coefficients better than 0.998. Limits of detection were 21 µg L-1, 310 µg L-1 and 1400 µg L-1 for 324.754 nm, 249.215 nm and 224.426 nm, respectively and relative standard deviations (n = 12) were £ 2.7%. The proposed method was applied to water samples spiked with Cu and the results were in agreement at a 95% of confidence level (paired t-test) with those obtained by line-source flame atomic absorption spectrometry.

Reference range of uterine artery Doppler parameters between the 11th and 14th pregnancy weeks in a population sample from Northeast Brazil

PURPOSE: To establish reference values for the first trimester uterine artery resistance index (UtA-RI) and pulsatility index (UtA-PI) in healthy singleton pregnant women from Northeast Brazil. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study including 409 consecutive singleton pregnancies undergoing routine early ultrasound screening at 11 - 14 weeks of gestation was performed. The patients responded to a questionnaire to assess maternal epidemiological characteristics. The left and right UtA-PI and UtA-RI were examined by color and pulsed Doppler by transabdominal technique and the mean UtA-PI, mean UtA-RI and the presence of bilateral protodiastolic notching were recorded. Quartile regression was used to estimate reference values. RESULTS: The mean±standard deviation UtA-RI and UtA-PI were 0.7±0.1 and 1.5±0.5, respectively. When segregated for gestation age, mean UtA-PI was 1.6±0.5 at 11 weeks, 1.5±0.6 at 12 weeks, 1.4±0.4 at 13 weeks and 1.3±0.4 at 14 weeks' gestation and mean UtA-RI was 0.7±0.1 at 11 weeks, 0.7±0.1 at 12 weeks, 0.6±0.1 at 13 weeks and 0.6±0.1 at 14 weeks' gestation. Uterine artery bilateral notch was present in 261 (63.8%) patients. We observed that the 5th and 95th percentiles of the UtA-PI and UtA-RI uterine arteries were 0.7 and 2.3 and, 0.5 and 0.8, respectively. CONCLUSION: Normal reference range of uterine artery Doppler in healthy singleton pregnancies from Northeast Brazil was established. The 95th percentile of UtA-PI and UtA-RI values may serve as a cut-off for future prediction of pregnancy complications studies (i.e., pre-eclampsia) in Northeast Brazil.

Diagnostic value of copper parameters to predict growth of suckling calves grazing native range in Argentina

A study was conducted to evaluate the predictive diagnostic value of different copper (Cu) parameters as indicators of average daily gain (ADG) in growing calves. The effects in calves of cow Cu supplementation in the last one-third gestation period were also evaluated. Five supplementation trials, with a total of 300 calves, were carried out. Two groups of 30 calves were randomly assigned to each trial, one group was parenterally supplemented (SG) and the other was not supplemented (NSG). Trials began when calves were three-month-old and ended at weaning time. At each sampling calves were weighed and blood was taken to determine Cu concentrations in plasma, Whole Blood (WB), Red Cells (RC) and Packed Cell Volume (PCV). Liver samples from six animals of each group were taken both at the beginning and at the end of the trial. In two trials the mothers of the SG received Cu supplementation at the last one- third gestation period. Four of the five trials exhibited low ADG in the NSGs. In these groups, plasma Cu concentration decreased rapidly before low ADG was detected, which occurred with values remaining below 25µg/dl. The decrease of RC Cu concentration was considerably slow. WB showed an intermediate position. PCV in the SGs was higher than in the NSGs in all trials. Cow supplementation was insufficient to generate a liver storage able to last after calves reached the 3 months of age. These data could be useful to predict the risk of low ADG in grazing calves.

Dinâmica da comunidade e populações arbóreas da borda e interior de um remanescente florestal na Serra da Mantiqueira, Minas Gerais, em um intervalo de cinco anos (1999-2004)

A dinâmica da comunidade arbórea e de 26 populações componentes foi investigada em um fragmento de floresta estacional semidecídua em Piedade do Rio Grande, Minas Gerais, com base em inventários conduzidos em 1999 e 2004 em 30 parcelas de 400 m², 12 das quais foram locadas na borda do fragmento e 18 em seu interior. O objetivo foi verificar se a comunidade e populações arbóreas (a) estavam estáveis no período, e (b) mostraram uma dinâmica mais acelerada na borda do fragmento que em seu interior. Foram obtidas taxas de mortalidade e recrutamento de árvores e taxas de ganho e perda de área basal para a amostra total, seus dois setores, classes de diâmetro e populações. A hipótese da estabilidade foi rejeitada porque, tanto na borda como no interior, as taxas de mortalidade superaram as de recrutamento, as taxas de ganho superaram as de perda de área basal e as distribuições de tamanho mudaram devido ao declínio na densidade de árvores menores. Tais mudanças gerais se relacionaram, possivelmente, (a) a efeitos de longa duração da fragmentação ainda em curso, (b) a uma fase particular de um ciclo florestal rítmico e/ou (c) à suposta aceleração global das taxas de rotatividade florestal devido ao aumento do CO2 atmosférico. Os dois setores de fato diferiram nas taxas de rotatividade mais elevadas na borda que no interior da floresta, provavelmente devido à maior abundância de luz na borda, mas também porque populações de espécies pioneiras e exigentes de luz, de rápido crescimento, são mais abundantes na borda.