Cytomegalovirus seroepidemiology in an urban community of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: After the era of rubella vaccine, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of the most frequently causes of mental retardation and congenital deafness. Seroepidemiological studies are necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease. The purpose of the study was to quantify the transmission rate of CMV disease in a community in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Using ELISA test (IgG), a retrospective serological survey looking for CMV antibodies was performed in an non-immunized community. Frozen sera from 443 individuals, randomly selected by cluster sampling technique in the town of Caieiras, São Paulo, were collected from November 1990 to January 1991. Seroprevalence was stratified by age (0-40 years). Mathematical techniques were applied to determine the age-dependent decay function of maternal antibodies during the first year of life, the age-dependent seroprevalence function and the force of infection for CMV in this community. RESULTS: It was observed a descending phase of seropositivity in the first 9 months, but changes in antibody titration were observed between 8 months old and one year of age. The average age of the first infection was 5.02 months of age and 19.84 years, when the age-dependent seroprevalence and the force of infection were analyzed between 10 months of age and 10 years of age and from 10 to 40 years old, respectively. CONCLUSION: CMV infection is highly prevalent among the population studied and infection occurs in the first year of life. This study shows that most women at reproductive age are vulnerable to the first infection, increasing the risk for congenital infection.

Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Modeling AIDS vaccines: the cellular level

This paper discuses current strategies for the development of AIDS vaccines wich allow immunzation to disturb the natural course of HIV at different detailed stages of its life cycle. Mathematical models describing the main biological phenomena (i.e. virus and vaccine induced T4 cell growth; virus and vaccine induced activation latently infected T4 cells; incremental changes immune response as infection progress; antibody dependent enhancement and neutralization of infection) and allowing for different vaccination strategies serve as a backgroud for computer simulations. The mathematical models reproduce updated information on the behavior of immune cells, antibody concentrations and free viruses. The results point to some controversial outcomes of an AIDS vaccine such as an early increase in virus concentration among vaccinated when compared to nonvaccinated individuals.

Diphtheria remains a threat to health in the developing world: an overview

Changes in the epidemiology of diphtheria are occurring worldwide. A large proportion of adults in many industrialized and developing countries are now susceptible to diphtheria. Vaccine-induced immunity wanes over time unless periodic booster is given or exposure to toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae occurs. Immunity gap in adults coupled with large numbers of susceptible children creates the potential for new extensive epidemics. Epidemic emergencies may not be long in coming in countries experiencing rapid industrialization or undergoing sociopolitical instability where many of the factors thought to be important in producing epidemic such as mass population movements and difficult hygienic and economic conditions are present. The continuous circulation of toxigenic C. diphtheriae emphasizes the need to be aware of epidemiological features, clinical signs, and symptoms of diphtheria in vaccine era so that cases can be promptly diagnosed and treated, and further public health measures can be taken to contain this serious disease. This overview focused on worldwide data obtained from diphtheria with particular emphasis to main factors leading to recent epidemics, new clinical forms of C. diphtheriae infections, expression of virulence factors, other than toxin production, control strategies, and laboratory diagnosis procedures.

The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

New tools for epidemiology: a space odyssey

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) facilitate access to epidemiological data through visualization and may be consulted for the development of mathematical models and analysis by spatial statistics. Variables such as land-cover, land-use, elevations, surface temperatures, rainfall etc. emanating from earth-observing satellites, complement GIS as this information allows the analysis of disease distribution based on environmental characteristics. The strength of this approach issues from the specific environmental requirements of those causative infectious agents, which depend on intermediate hosts for their transmission. The distribution of these diseases is restricted, both by the environmental requirements of their intermediate hosts/vectors and by the ambient temperature inside these hosts, which effectively govern the speed of maturation of the parasite. This paper discusses the current capabilities with regard to satellite data collection in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal and spectral) of the sensor instruments on board drawing attention to the utility of computer-based models of the Earth for epidemiological research. Virtual globes, available from Google and other commercial firms, are superior to conventional maps as they do not only show geographical and man-made features, but also allow instant import of data-sets of specific interest, e.g. environmental parameters, demographic information etc., from the Internet.

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Dielectric constant obtained from TDR and volumetric moisture of soils in southern Brazil

Soil moisture is the property which most greatly influences the soil dielectric constant, which is also influenced by soil mineralogy. The aim of this study was to determine mathematical models for soil moisture and the dielectric constant (Ka) for a Hapludalf, two clayey Hapludox and a very clayey Hapludox and test the reliability of universal models, such as those proposed by Topp and Ledieu and their co-workers in the 80's, and specific models to estimate soil moisture with a TDR. Soil samples were collected from the 0 to 0.30 m layer, sieved through a mesh of 0.002 m diameter and packed in PVC cylinders with a 0.1 m diameter and 0.3 m height. Seven samples of each soil class were saturated by capillarity and a probe composed of two rods was inserted in each one of them. Moisture readings began with the saturated soil and concluded when the soil was near permanent wilting point. In each step, the samples were weighed on a precision scale to calculate volumetric moisture. Linear and polynomial models were adjusted for each soil class and for all soils together between soil moisture and the dielectric constant. Accuracy of the models was evaluated by the coefficient of determination, the standard error of estimate and the 1:1 line. The models proposed by Topp and Ledieu and their co-workers were not adequate for estimating the moisture in the soil classes studied. The adjusted linear and polynomial models for the entire set of data of the four soil classes did not have sufficient accuracy for estimating soil moisture. The greater the soil clay and Fe oxide content, the greater the dielectric constant of the medium for a given volumetric moisture. The specific models, θ = 0.40283 - 0.04231 Ka + 0.00194 Ka² - 0.000022 Ka³ (Hapludox) θ = 0.01971 + 0.02902 Ka - 0.00086 Ka² + 0.000012 Ka³ (Hapludox -PF), θ = 0.01692 - 0.00507 Ka (Hapludalf) and θ = 0.08471 + 0.01145 Ka (Hapludox-CA), show greater accuracy and reliability for estimating soil moisture in the soil classes studied.

MODELING OF SOIL LOAD-BEARING CAPACITY AS A FUNCTION OF SOIL MECHANICAL RESISTANCE TO PENETRATION

Estimation of soil load-bearing capacity from mathematical models that relate preconsolidation pressure (σp) to mechanical resistance to penetration (PR) and gravimetric soil water content (U) is important for defining strategies to prevent compaction of agricultural soils. Our objective was therefore to model the σp and compression index (CI) according to the PR (with an impact penetrometer in the field and a static penetrometer inserted at a constant rate in the laboratory) and U in a Rhodic Eutrudox. The experiment consisted of six treatments: no-tillage system (NT); NT with chiseling; and NT with additional compaction by combine traffic (passing 4, 8, 10, and 20 times). Soil bulk density, total porosity, PR (in field and laboratory measurements), U, σp, and CI values were determined in the 5.5-10.5 cm and 13.5-18.5 cm layers. Preconsolidation pressure (σp) and CI were modeled according to PR in different U. The σp increased and the CI decreased linearly with increases in the PR values. The correlations between σp and PR and PR and CI are influenced by U. From these correlations, the soil load-bearing capacity and compaction susceptibility can be estimated by PR readings evaluated in different U.

Seleção de variáveis em QSAR

The process of building mathematical models in quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies is generally limited by the size of the dataset used to select variables from. For huge datasets, the task of selecting a given number of variables that produces the best linear model can be enormous, if not unfeasible. In this case, some methods can be used to separate good parameter combinations from the bad ones. In this paper three methodologies are analyzed: systematic search, genetic algorithm and chemometric methods. These methods have been exposed and discussed through practical examples.

Moisture sorption isotherms and isosteric heat determination in Chilean papaya (Vasconcellea pubescens)

The moisture sorption isotherms of Chilean papaya were determined at 5, 20, and 45 ºC, over a relative humidity range of 10-95%. The GAB, BET, Oswin, Halsey, Henderson, Smith, Caurie and Iglesias-Chirife models were applied to the sorption experimental data. The goodness of fit of the mathematical models was statistically evaluated by means of the determination coefficient, mean relative percentage deviation, sum square error, root-mean-square error, and chi-square values. The GAB, Oswin and Halsey models were found to be the most suitable for the description of the sorption data. The sorption heats calculated using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation were 57.35 and 59.98 kJ·mol-1, for adsorption and desorption isotherms, respectively.

Obtenção do 2-etóxi-2-metilpropano grau analítico a partir do produto comercial

Ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE) is produced by commercial processes to a purity of up to 96%. In recent years, several companies have started to produce ETBE, increasing the demand for standards with higher grades of purity in the area of production control and final product certification. The present work involved the development of a purification protocol for obtaining high purity ETBE from the commercial product used in the formulation of automotive gasolines, using a spinning band distillation column. The ETBE thus produced showed a purity of over 99.5%, its main contaminant being its isomer, ethyl-sec-butyl ether (ESBE).

Modelagem da cinética de biodegradação de paclobutrazol em dois solos do semiárido do nordeste brasileiro

Mathematical models can help to prevent high levels of toxic substances in soil or fruits of plants treated with pesticides and indicate that such substances should be systematically monitored. The aim of this research was to study the kinetics of paclobutrazol biodegradation by soil native bacteria using mathematical models. Three models were used to assess the kinetics of paclobutrazol biodegradation obtained experimentally. Excellent fits were obtained using dual kinetic and logistic models. The use of glycerol as additional carbon source increased the biodegradation of PBZ and consequently decreased the time required for a given PBZ initial concentration be halved.

Numerical evaluation of the modulus of longitudinal elasticity in structural round timber elements of the Eucalyptus genus

Currently, the standards that deal with the determination of the properties of rigidity and strength for structural round timber elements do not take in consideration in their calculations and mathematical models the influence of the existing irregularities in the geometry of these elements. This study has as objective to determine the effective value of the modulus of longitudinal elasticity for structural round timber pieces of the Eucalyptus citriodora genus by a technique of optimization allied to the Inverse Analysis Method, to the Finite Element Method and the Least Square Method.

Rainfall erosivity for the State of Rio de Janeiro estimated by artificial neural network

The Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are mathematical models method capable of estimating non-linear response plans. The advantage of these models is to present different responses of the statistical models. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop and to test ANNs for estimating rainfall erosivity index (EI30) as a function of the geographical location for the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and generating a thematic visualization map. The characteristics of latitude, longitude e altitude using ANNs were acceptable to estimating EI30 and allowing visualization of the space variability of EI30. Thus, ANN is a potential option for the estimate of climatic variables in substitution to the traditional methods of interpolation.