The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

Acute respiratory infections in children living in two low income communities of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Community studies of non-hospitalized children are essential to obtain a more thorough understanding of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and provide important information for public health authorities. This study identified a total ARI incidence rate (IR) of 4.5 per 100 child-weeks at risk and 0.78 for lower respiratory tract infections (LRI). Disease duration averaged less than one week and produced a total time ill with ARI of 5.8% and for LRI 1.2%. No clear seasonal variation was observed, the sex-specific IR showed a higher proportion of boys becoming ill with ARI and LRI and the peak age-specific IR occurred in infants of 6-11 months. Correlation with risk factors of the child (breastfeeding, vaccination, diarrheal disease, undernourishment) and the environment (crowding, living conditions, maternal age and education) showed marginal increases in the rate ratios, making it difficult to propose clear-cuts targets for action to lower the ARI and LRI morbidity. The importance of an integral maternal-child health care program and public education in the early recognition of LRI is discussed.

Seroepidemiology of hepatitis B virus infection and high rate of response to hepatitis B virus Butang®vaccine in adolescents from low income families in Central Brazil

In order to evaluate the seroepidemiology and response to Butang® vaccine in adolescents from low income families in Central Brazil, blood samples of 664 adolescents were tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc), and hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) markers, and multiple logistical regression analysis was carried out to determine variables associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection markers. further, three 20 µg butang® vaccine doses were offered to all susceptible individuals (n = 304). Among those who accepted them (n = 182), the seroresponse was evaluated in 170 individuals by quantitative anti-HBs. an overall hbv prevalence of 5.9% was found: four adolescents were HBsAg positive, 24 were anti-HBc, anti-HBs-reactive, and 11 were anti-HBc only. The analyse of risk factors showed that age 16-19 years, place of birth outside Goiás, school B and body piercing were statistically associated with HBV infection markers (p < 0.05). All 170 adolescents responded to butang®, and a geometric mean titer (gmt) of 4344 mui/ml was obtained. these results reinforce the importance of hepatitis b vaccine in adolescents despite of the hbv regional endemicity, and suggest that three doses of 20 µg of the butang® should guarantee protective anti-hbs levels to individuals at a critical time for hepatitis b acquiring such as latter adolescence and adulthood.

Container productivity, daily survival rates and dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in a high income dengue epidemic neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro: presumed influence of differential urban structure on mosquito biology

Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.

Use of medicinal plants by black women: ethnography study in a low-income community

Objective To explore beliefs, values and practices related to the use of medicinal plants among low-income black families. Method The research method was ethnography and the participant observation process was done in a low-income community in the peripheral area of the City of São Paulo. Twenty black women were interviewed. Results Two cultural sub-themes, I do use medicines that I learned to make with my mother and with religious practitioners to care for diseases and Home medicines are to treat problems that are not serious, and the cultural theme I do use home medicines to treat simple diseases because I always have them at my disposal, they are free and I don’t need a medical prescription represent beliefs, values, and practices related to the use of medicinal plants among low-income black families. Conclusion The development of such practices, which can hide ethnic and social vulnerability, reveals the resilience of low-income black women in the process of confronting problems during the health-illness process.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

Prenatal and postnatal depression among low income Brazilian women

Postnatal depression is a significant problem affecting 10-15% of mothers in many countries and has been the subject of an increasing number of publications. Prenatal depression has been studied less. The aims of the present investigation were: 1) to obtain information on the prevalence of prenatal and postnatal depression in low income Brazilian women by using an instrument already employed in several countries, i.e., the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS); 2) to evaluate the risk factors involved in prenatal and postnatal depression in Brazil. The study groups included 33 pregnant women interviewed at home during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy, and once a month during the first six months after delivery. Questions on life events and the mother's relationship with the baby were posed during each visit. Depressed pregnant women received less support from their partners than non-depressed pregnant women (36.4 vs 72.2%, P<0.05; Fisher exact test). Black women predominated among pre- and postnatally depressed subjects. Postnatal depression was associated with lower parity (0.4 ± 0.5 vs 1.1 ± 1.0, P<0.05; Student t-test). Thus, the period of pregnancy may be susceptible to socio-environmental factors that induce depression, such as the lack of affective support from the partner. The prevalence rate of 12% observed for depression in the third month postpartum is comparable to that of studies from other countries.

Examining life-course influences on chronic disease: the importance of birth cohort studies from low- and middle- income countries. An overview

The objectives of this overview are to describe the past and potential contributions of birth cohorts to understanding chronic disease aetiology; advance a justification for the maintenance of birth cohorts from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC); provide an audit of birth cohorts from LMIC; and, finally, offer possible future directions for this sphere of research. While the contribution of birth cohorts from affluent societies to understanding disease aetiology has been considerable, we describe several reasons to anticipate why the results from such studies might not be directly applied to LMIC. More than any other developing country, Brazil has a tradition of establishing, maintaining and exploiting birth cohort studies. The clear need for a broader geographical representation may be precipitated by a greater collaboration worldwide in the sharing of ideas, fieldwork experience, and cross-country cohort data comparisons in order to carry out the best science in the most efficient manner. This requires the involvement of a central overseeing body - such as the World Health Organization - that has the respect of all countries and the capacity to develop strategic plans for `global' life-course epidemiology while addressing such issues as data-sharing. For rapid progress to be made, however, there must be minimal bureaucratic entanglements.

Corruption, income, and rule of law: empirical evidence from developing and developed economies

This article presents an empirical analysis based on cross-country data concerned with two points regarding corruption: (i) its effects on income; and (ii) how to mitigate corruption. The findings can be highlighted in two points. Firstly the idea that corruption is intrinsically connected with income is confirmed. Secondly, the traditional argument that an increase in rule of law represents a good strategy in the fight against corruption is valid for developing countries. Furthermore, this study reveals that the search for increasing the human development index represents a rule of thumb for high levels of income and to control corruption.