Trends and factors associated with dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Studies that generate information that may reduce the dengue death risk are essential. This study analyzed time trends and risk factors for dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil from 2001 to 2011.METHODS:Time trends for dengue mortality and fatality rates were analyzed using simple linear regression. Associations between the dengue mortality and the case fatality rates and socioeconomic, demographic, and health care indicators at the municipality level were analyzed using negative binomial regression.RESULTS:The dengue hemorrhagic fever case fatality rate increased in Brazil from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.67; p=0.036), in patients aged 0-14 years (β=0.48; p=0.030) and in those aged ≥15 years (β=1.1; p<0.01). Factors associated with the dengue case fatality rate were the average income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.038) and the number of basic health units per population (MRR=0.89; p<0.001). Mortality rates increased from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.350; p=0.002).Factors associated with mortality were inequality (RR=1.02; p=0.001) high income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.005), and higher proportions of populations living in urban areas (MRR=1.01; p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS:The increases in the dengue mortality and case fatality rates and the associated socioeconomic and health care factors, suggest the need for structural and intersectoral investments to improve living conditions and to sustainably reduce these outcomes.

Peacock bass mortality associated with catch-and-release sport fishing in the Negro River, Amazonas State, Brazil

Sport fishing for peacock bass Cichla spp. in the Brazilian Amazon has increased in popularity and attracts anglers who generate significant economic benefits in rural regions. The sustainability of this fishery is partly dependent on the survival of fish caught through catch-and-release fishing. The objective of this work was to investigate, hooking mortality of Cichla spp., including speckled peacock bass (C. temensis Humbolt), butterfly peacock bass (C. orinocensis Humbolt), and popoca peacock bass (C. monoculus Agassiz) in the basin of the Negro River, the largest tributary of the Amazon River. Fish were caught at two different sites using artificial lures, transported to pens anchored in the river and monitored for 72 hours. A total of 162 individual peacock bass were captured and hooking mortality (mean % ± 95% confidence intervals) was calculated. Mean mortality was 3.5% (± 5.0), 2.3% (± 3.5) and 5.2% (± 10.2) for speckled peacock bass, butterfly peacock bass, and popoca peacock bass, respectively. Lengths of captured fish ranged from 26 to 79 cm (standard length), however, only fish under 42 cm died. This research suggests that catch-and-release sport fishing of peacock bass does not result in substantial mortality in the Negro River basin.

Trends in mortality due to ischemic heart disease in the municipality of Goiania, Brazil, during the years between 1980 and 1994

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends of specific, standardized coefficients of mortality due to ischemic heart disease according to sex and age during the years 1980 and 1994 in the municipality of Goiania, GO, Brazil. METHODS: Data on deaths were retrieved from the Information on Mortality System of the Ministry of Health; population data were obtained from the Foundation of the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The trends of the specific coefficients were analyzed by triennia of the historical series, including individuals of both sexes from 25 years of age on, partitioned into 6 age groups of ten years intervals. The population data corresponding to the year 1980 were used as the standard for the calculation of each age group coefficient. Analyses were carried out by straight linear regression. RESULTS: Coefficients were greater for males in each triennium of the series and increased with age in both sexes. The study of the trends of the specific age coefficients of both sexes revealed a stable pattern of evolution up to the age of 65-74 years (P>0.05). From 75 years on, a clear-cut decline in mortality due to ischemic heart disease was shown by both sexes. The standardized coefficients also showed a significant decline (p<=0.05). CONCLUSION: The municipality of Goiânia is at present in a stage of epidemiological transition similar to that of developed countries, even though the observed decline is predominantly influenced by the mortality of older individuals (75 years of age or older).

Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Trends in Productive Years of Life Lost to Premature Mortality Due to Coronary Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of productive years of life lost to premature death due to coronary heart disease in Brazil and to report their trends over a 20-year period. METHODS: The Brazilian Ministry of Health raw database on death due to coronary heart disease from 1979-1998 was used. The productive years of life lost to premature death were estimated using 20 and 59 years of age as the cut points for the productive years, replacing the potential years of 1 and 70 of the original formula. A descriptive analysis was provided with adjustments, means, proportions, ratios, percentages of increase or reduction, and mobile means. RESULTS: A 35.8% increase in death for males and 51.3% for females was observed, +43.3% being the relative difference for females. The annual means of the productive years of life prematurely lost were analyzed in 140,865 males and 58,559 females, with the differential ratio between the age groups ranging from 2.3 to 2.5. The annual means were less favorable for males. Within each group (intragroup), the ratios decreased with the increase in age, and the age means at the time of death remained constant. The raw tendencies decreased in the 20- to 29-year age group and increased in the 40- to 59-year age group for females and the 40- to 49-year age group for males. When adjusted, the raw tendencies decreased. CONCLUSION: The 43.3% increase in the number of female deaths as compared with that of males and the ascending tendency in the productive years of life lost in the 40- to 59-year age group point to the influence of unfavorable changes in female lifestyles and suggest a deficiency in programs for prevention and control of risk factors and in their treatment in both sexes.

Mortality by Heart Failure and Ischemic Heart Disease in Brazil from 1996 to 2011

Background:Circulatory system diseases are the first cause of death in Brazil.Objective:To analyze the evolution of mortality caused by heart failure, by ischemic heart diseases and by ill-defined causes, as well as their possible relations, in Brazil and in the geoeconomic regions of the country (North, Northeast, Center-West, South and Southeast), from 1996 to 2011.Methods:Data were obtained from DATASUS and death declaration records with codes I20 and I24 for acute ischemic diseases, I25 for chronic ischemic diseases, and I50 for heart failure, and codes in chapter XIII for ill-defined causes, according to geoeconomic regions of Brazil, from 1996 to 2011.Results:Mortality rates due to heart failure declined in Brazil and its regions, except for the North and the Northeast. Mortality rates due to acute ischemic heart diseases increased in the North and Northeast regions, especially from 2005 on; they remained stable in the Center-West region; and decreased in the South and in the Southeast. Mortality due to chronic ischemic heart diseases decreased in Brazil and in the Center-West, South and Southeast regions, and had little variation in the North and in the Northeast. The highest mortality rates due to ill-defined causes occurred in the Northeast until 2005.Conclusions:Mortality due to heart failure is decreasing in Brazil and in all of its geoeconomic regions. The temporal evolution of mortality caused by ischemic heart diseases was similar to that of heart failure. The decreasing number of deaths due to ill-defined causes may represent the improvement in the quality of information about mortality in Brazil. The evolution of acute ischemic heart diseases ranged according to regions, being possibly confused with the differential evolution of ill-defined causes.

Clinical and echocardiographic predictors of mortality in chagasic cardiomyopathy - systematic review

Diagnosis, prognosis and evaluation of death risk in Chagas cardiomyopathy still constitute a challenge due to the diversity of manifestations, which determine the importance of using echocardiography, tissue Doppler and biomarkers. To evaluate, within a systematic review, clinical and echocardiographic profiles of patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy, which may be related to worse prognosis and major mortality risk. To perform the systematic review, we used Medline (via PubMed), LILACS and SciELO databases to identify 82 articles published from 1991 to 2012, with the following descriptors: echocardiography, mortality and Chagas disease. We selected 31 original articles, involving diagnostic and prognostic methods. The importance of Chagas disease has increased due to its emergence in Europe and United States, but most evidence came from Brazil. Among the predictors of worse prognosis and higher mortality risk are morphological and functional alterations in the left and right ventricles, evaluated by conventional echocardiography and tissue Doppler, as well as the increase in brain natriuretic peptide and troponin I concentrations. Recently, the evaluations of dyssynchrony, dysautonomia, as well as strain, strain rate and myocardial twisting were added to the diagnostic arsenal for the early differentiation of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Developments in imaging and biochemical diagnostic procedures have enabled more detailed cardiac evaluations, which demonstrate the early involvement of both ventricles, allowing a more accurate assessment of the mortality risk in Chagas disease.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

The residual efficacy of a cypermethrin pour-on formulation applied on goats on the mortality and blood intake of Triatoma infestans

Triatoma infestans is the main vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of Chagas disease in the Gran Chaco region of South America. As a frequent blood meal source for triatomine bugs, domestic goats play a key role in the eco-epidemiology of Chagas disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the mortality and blood intake of T. infestans fed on goats that had been treated with different doses of pour-on insecticide. Third-instar nymphs were fed on goats that had been treated with 0 cc, 5 cc, 10 cc or 15 cc of a pour-on formulation of cypermethrin. The exposure of T. infestans to animals treated at different post-application intervals revealed a residual activity of the insecticide. The mortality rate in the treated groups was higher than in the control groups until 30 days post-insecticide application (p = 0.03), except in the group treated with 5 cc, in which no mortality was detected after seven days of insecticide application. Rainfall affected the triatomicide effect, reducing the time of residual activity. The cypermethrin pour-on treatment decreased the blood intake of T. infestans. Thirty days after the cypermethrin application, nymph mortality was 16% (± 13) with both doses (10 cc and 15 cc). The 15 cc dose did not result in higher insect mortality or increased persistence compared to the 10 cc dose.

Antagonic effect of the inhibition of inducible nitric oxide on the mortality of mice acutely infected with Escherichia coli and Bacteroides fragilis

Sepsis, the leading cause of death in intensive care units, is associated with overproduction of nitric oxide (NO) due to inducible NO synthase (iNOS), responsible for some of the pathologic changes. Aminoguanidine (AG) is a selective iNOS inhibitor with reported inconsistent actions in sepsis. To investigate the influence of iNOS, we studied models of acute bacterial sepsis using acute challenges with aerobic (Escherichia coli) and anaerobic (Bacteroides fragilis) bacteria in the presence of AG. Six-week-old, 23 g, male and female BALB/c and C57Bl/6j mice, in equal proportions, were inoculated (ip) with bacteria in groups of 4 animals for each dose and each experiment in the absence or presence of AG (50 mg/kg, ip, starting 24 h before challenge and daily until day 6) and serum nitrate was measured by chemiluminescence. Both types of bacteria were lethal to mice, with an LD50 of 6 nephelometric units (U) for E. coli and 8 U for B. fragilis. Nitrate production peaked on the second day after E. coli inoculation with 8 and 6 U (P < 0.05), but was absent after non-lethal lower doses. After challenge with B. fragilis this early peak occurred at all tested doses after 24 h, including non-lethal ones (P < 0.05). AG-treated mice challenged with E. coli presented higher survival (P < 0.05) and increased LD50. AG-treated mice challenged with B. fragilis had lower LD50 and higher mortality. Control AG-treated animals presented no toxic effects. The opposite effect of iNOS blockade by AG in these models could be explained by restriction of oxygen for immune cells or an efficient action of NO in anaerobic localized infections. The antagonic role of NO production observed in our bacterial models could explain the reported discrepancy of NO action in sepsis.

Gross proteinuria is a strong risk predictor for cardiovascular mortality in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

Elevated levels of plasma osteoprotegerin are associated with all-cause mortality risk and atherosclerosis in patients with stages 3 to 5 chronic kidney disease

Osteoprotegerin (OPG) regulates bone mass by inhibiting osteoclast differentiation and activation, and plays a role in vascular calcification. We evaluated the relationship between osteoprotegerin levels and inflammatory markers, atherosclerosis, and mortality in patients with stages 3-5 chronic kidney disease. A total of 145 subjects (median age 61 years, 61% men; 36 patients on hemodialysis, 55 patients on peritoneal dialysis, and 54 patients with stages 3-5 chronic kidney disease) were studied. Clinical characteristics, markers of mineral metabolism (including fibroblast growth factor-23 [FGF-23]) and inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hsCRP] and interleukin-6 [IL-6]), and the intima-media thickness (IMT) in the common carotid arteries were measured at baseline. Cardiac function was assessed by color tissue Doppler echocardiography. After 36 months follow-up, the survival rate by Kaplan-Meier analysis was significantly different according to OPG levels (χ2=14.33; P=0.002). Increased OPG levels were positively associated with IL-6 (r=0.38, P<0.001), FGF-23 (r=0.26, P<0.001) and hsCRP (r=0.0.24, P=0.003). In addition, OPG was positively associated with troponin I (r=0.54, P<0.001) and IMT (r=0.39, P<0.0001). Finally, in Cox analysis, only OPG (HR=1.07, 95%CI=1.02-1.13) and hsCRP (HR=1.02, 95%CI=1.01-1.04) were independently associated with increased risk of death. These results suggested that elevated levels of serum OPG might be associated with atherosclerosis and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease.

The population of Brazil

In 1970 the population of Brazil with 94,508,554 inhabitants was extreme youth, since 42.67% was composed of children under 14 years old. In that year the proportion of female was 50.2%. The population density increased from 1.17 inhabitants /km² in 1872 to 11.18 in 1970, and in this last year the range was 1.03 in the North region and 43.90 in the South-East region. The urban population increased from 31.24% in 1940 to 55.98% in 1970 and for the first time the rural population was smaller than the urban population. In 1950 concerning with marital status 39% of the population 15 years old and over was single and 54% married. In 1970 this rate was respectively 35.4% and 56.6%. The population economically inactive increased from 49.17% in 1940 to 52.24% in 1970. The literacy ratio increased from 43% in 1940, to 48% in 1950 and 68.04% in 1970. The crude birth rate was 43/1000 live births in 1950 and fell to 37.7/1000 in 1970. The fertility rate decreased from 179.3/1000 women (15-49 years old} to 156.7/1000 in 1960/70. The crude death rate decreased from 20.60/1000 inhabitants in 1940/50 to 9.4/1000 in 1960/70. The infant mortality rate still remains high: 171/1000 live births in 1940/50 and 170/1000 in 1971. Concerning with the size of the cities, 8 in 1940 had 100,000 or more inhabitants and in 1970 this number increased to 94 cities. The population growth increased from 2.38% in 1940/50, to 2.99% in 1950/60 and 2.83% in 1960./70. Brazil is the first country in population size in Latin America and the eighth in the world. Concerning his area, Brazil is the fifth country in size.

Mortality problems in Brazil and in Germany: past-present-future. Learning from each other?

This article was written by a Swiss-German historical demographer after having visited different Brazilian Universities in 1984 as a guest-professor. It aims at promoting a real dialog between developed and developing countries, commencing the discussion with the question: Can we learn from each other? An affirmative answer is given, but not in the superficial manner in which the discussion partners simply want to give each other some "good advice" or in which the one declares his country's own development to be the solely valid standard. Three points are emphasized: 1. Using infant mortality in S. Paulo from 1908 to 1983 as an example, it is shown that Brazil has at its disposal excellent, highly varied research literature that is unjustifiably unknown to us (in Europe) for the most part. Brazil by no means needs our tutoring lessons as regards the causal relationships; rather, we could learn two things from Brazil about this. For one, it becomes clear that our almost exclusively medical-biological view is inappropriate for passing a judgment on the present-day problems in Brazil and that any conclusions so derived are thus only transferable to a limited extent. For another, we need to reinterpret the history of infant mortality in our own countries up to the past few decades in a much more encompassing "Brazilian" sense. 2. A fruitful dialog can only take place if both partners frankly present their problems. For this reason, the article refers with much emprasis to our present problems in dealing with death and dying - problems arising near the end of the demographic and epidemiologic transitions: the superanuation of the population, chronic-incurable illnesses as the main causes of death, the manifold dependencies of more and more elderly and really old people at the end of a long life. Brazil seems to be catching up to us in this and will be confronted with these problems sooner or later. A far-sighted discussion already at this time seems thus to be useful. 3. The article, however, does not want to conclude with the rather depressing state of affairs of problems alternatingly superseding each other. Despite the caution which definitely has a place when prognoses are being made on the basis of extrapolations from historical findings, the foreseeable development especially of the epidemiologic transition in the direction of a rectangular survival curve does nevertheless provide good reason for being rather optimistic towards the future: first in regards to the development in our own countries, but then - assuming that the present similar tendencies of development are stuck to - also in regard to Brazil.

Geographical patterns of proportionate mortality for the most common causes of death in Brazil

Mortality due to chronic diseases has been increasing in all regions of Brazil with corresponding decreases in mortality from infectious diseases. The geographical variation in proportionate mortality for chronic diseases for 17 Brazilian state capitals for the year 1985 and their association with socio-economic variables and infectious disease was studied. Calculations were made of correlation coefficients of proportionate mortality for adults of 30 years or above due to ischaemic heart disease, stroke and cancer of the lung, the breast and stomach with 3 socio-economic variables, race, and mortality due to infectious disease. Linear regression analysis included as independent variables the % of illiteracy, % of whites, % of houses with piped water, mean income, age group, sex, and % of deaths caused by infectious disease. The dependent variables were the % of deaths due to each one of the chronic diseases studied by age-sex group. Chronic diseases were an important cause of death in all regions of Brazil. Ischaemic heart diseases, stroke and malignant neoplasms accounted for more than 34% of the mortality in each of the 17 capitals studied. Proportionate cause-specific mortality varied markedly among state capitals. Ranges were 6.3-19.5% for ischaemic heart diseases, 8.3-25.4% for stroke, 2.3-10.4% for infections and 12.2-21.5% for malignant neoplasm. Infectious disease mortality had the highest (p < 0.001) correlation with all the four socio-economic variables studied and ischaemic heart disease showed the second highest correlation (p < 0.05). Higher socio-economic level was related to a lower % of infectious diseases and a higher % of ischaemic heart diseases. Mortality due to breast cancer and stroke was not associated with socio-economic variables. Multivariate linear regression models explained 59% of the variance among state capitals for mortality due to ischaemic heart disease, 50% for stroke, 28% for lung cancer, 24% for breast cancer and 40% for stomach cancer. There were major differences in the proportionate mortality due to chronic diseases among the capitals which could not be accounted for by the social and environmental factors and by the mortality due to infectious disease.