Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR), with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

Does nitrogen availability have greater control over the formation of tropical heath forests than water stress?A hypothesis based on nitrogen isotope ratios

Global scale analyses of soil and foliage δ15N have found positive relationships between δ15N and ecosystem N loss (suggesting an open N cycle) and a negative relationship between δ15N and water availability. We show here that soils and leaves from tropical heath forests are depleted in 15N relative to 'typical' forests suggesting that they have a tight N cycle and are therefore limited by N rather than by, often suggested, water availability.

Larval development of Spodoptera eridania (Cramer) fed on leaves of Bt maize expressing Cry1F and Cry1F + Cry1A.105 + Cry2Ab2 proteins and its non-Bt isoline

This study aimed to evaluate, in controlled laboratory conditions (temperature of 25±2 °C, relative humidity of 60±10%, and 14/10 h L/D photoperiod), the larval development of Spodoptera eridania (Cramer, 1784) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) fed with leaves of Bt maize expressing Cry1F and Cry1F + Cry1A.105 + Cry2Ab2 insecticide proteins and its non-Btisoline. Maize leaves triggered 100% of mortality on S. eridania larvae independently of being Bt or non-Bt plants. However, it was observed that in overall Bt maize (expressing a single or pyramided protein) slightly affects the larval development of S. eridania, even under reduced leaf consumption. Therefore, these results showed that Cry1F and Cry1F + Cry1A.105 + Cry2Ab2 can affect the larval development of S. eridania, although it is not a target pest of this plant; however, more research is needed to better understand this evidence. Finally, this study confirms that non-Bt maize leaves are unsuitable food source to S. eridania larvae, suggesting that they are not a potential pest in maize fields.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

Global coordination: weighted voting

In order to halt the depletion of global ecological capital, a number of different kinds of meetings between Governments of countries in the world has been scheduled. The need for global coordination of environmental policies has become ever more obvious, supported by more and more evidence of the running down of ecological capital. But there are no formal or binding arrangements in sight, as global environmental coordination suffers from high transaction costs (qualitative voting). The CO2 equivalent emissions, resulting in global warming, are driven by the unstoppable economic expansion in the global market economy, employing mainly fossil fuel generated energy, although at the same time lifting sharply the GDP per capita of several emerging countries. Only global environmental coordination on the successful model of the World Band and the IMF (quantitative voting) can stem the rising emissions numbers and stop further environmental degradation. However, the system of weighted voting in the WB and the IMF must be reformed by reducing the excessive voting power disparities, for instance by reducing all member country votes by the cube root expression.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Influence of liming on residual soil respiration and chemical properties in a tropical no-tillage system

Because of the climate changes occurring across the planet, especially global warming, the different forms of agricultural soil use have attracted researchers´ attention. Changes in soil management may influence soil respiration and, consequently, C sequestration. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the long-term influence of liming on soil respiration and correlate it with soil chemical properties after two years of liming in a no-tillage system. A randomized complete block design was used with six replications. The experimental treatments consisted of four lime rates and a control treatment without lime. Two years after liming, soil CO2 emission was measured and the soil sampled (layers 0-5, 5-10, 10-20, and 20-30 cm). The P, Ca2+ e Mg2+ soil contents and pH and base saturation were determined. CO2 emission from soil limed at the recommended rate was 24.1 % higher, and at twice the recommended rate, 47.4 % higher than from unlimed soil. Liming improved the chemical properties, and the linear increase in soil respiration rate correlated positively with the P, Ca2+ and Mg2+ soil contents, pH and base saturation, and negatively with H + Al and Al3+ contents. The correlation coefficient between soil respiration rate and chemical properties was highest in the 10-20 cm layer.

Use of steel slag to neutralize acid mine drainage (AMD) in sulfidic material from a uranium mine

Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) is one of the main environmental impacts caused by mining. Thus, innovative mitigation strategies should be exploited, to neutralize acidity and prevent mobilization of trace elements in AMD. The use of industrial byproducts has been considered an economically and environmentally effective alternative to remediate acid mine drainage. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the use of steel slag to mitigate acid mine drainage in a sulfidic material from a uranium mine, as an alternative to the use of limestone. Thus, increasing doses of two neutralizing agents were applied to a sulfidic material from the uranium mine Osamu Utsumi in Caldas, Minas Gerais State. A steel slag from the company ArcelorMittal Tubarão and a commercial limestone were used as neutralizing agents. The experiment was conducted in leaching columns, arranged in a completely randomized, [(2 x 3) + 1] factorial design, consisting of two neutralizing agents, three doses and one control, in three replications, totaling 21 experimental units. Electrical conductivity (EC), pH and the concentrations of Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, S, Se, and Zn were evaluated in the leached solutions. The trace element concentration was evaluated by ICP-OES. Furthermore, the CO2 emission was measured at the top of the leaching columns by capturing in NaOH solution and titration with HCl, in the presence of BaCl2. An increase in the pH of the leachate was observed for both neutralizing agents, with slightly higher values for steel slag. The EC was lower at the higher lime dose at an early stage of the experiment, and CO2 emission was greater with the use of limestone compared to steel slag. A decrease in trace element mobilization in the presence of both neutralizing agents was also observed. Therefore, the results showed that the use of steel slag is a suitable alternative to mitigate AMD, with the advantage of reducing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere compared to limestone.

Impact of increasing mean air temperature on the development of rice and red rice

The objective of this study was to assess the development response of cultivated rice and red rice to different increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures, in Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. One hundred years climate scenarios of temperatures 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, and +5ºC, with symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures were created, using the LARS-WG Weather Generator, and a 1969-2003 database. Nine cultivated rice genotypes (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, EEA 406 and a hybrid), and two red rice biotypes (awned black hull-ABHRR, and awned yellow hull-AYHRR) were used. The dates of panicle differentiation (R1), anthesis (R4), and all grains with brown hulls (R9) were estimated with a nonlinear simulation model. Overall, the duration of the emergence-R1 phase decreased, whereas the duration of the R1-R4 and R4-R9 phases most often increased, as temperature increased in the climate change scenarios. The simulated rice development response to elevated temperature was not the same, when the increase in minimum and maximum temperature was symmetric or asymmetric.

Produtividade simulada de tubérculos de batata em cenários de mudanças climáticas

The objective of this study was to simulate potato (Solanum tuberosum) tuber yield in different climate change scenarios of increased carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] and air temperature, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures. Spitters model was used to simulate Asterix cultivar tuber yield considering two growing seasons (spring and fall) recommended for Santa Maria, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. In each growing season, five planting dates were evaluated in climate scenarios of a hundred years with no increase in [CO2] and temperature (current scenario), and in scenarios with doubling [CO2] and temperature increases of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6ºC. A symmetric increase of 4ºC and an asymmetric increase of 5ºC in air temperature offset the yield beneficial effect of increasing [CO2] during spring, whereas increase in air temperature does not affect potato tuber yield during fall. Anticipating planting date in spring and delaying it in fall decrease the negative impact of the increasing air temperature on potato tuber yield.

Long-term changes in rice development in Southern Brazil, during the last ten decades

The objective of this work was to test long-term trends in the duration of rice development phases in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. The duration from emergence to V3 (EM-V3), emergence to panicle differentiation (EM-R1), emergence to anthesis (EM-R4), and emergence to all grains with brown hull (EM-R9) was calculated using leaf appearance and developmental models for four rice cultivars (IRGA 421, IRGA 417, EPAGRI 109, and EEA 406), for the period from 1912 to 2011, considering three emergence dates (early, mid, and late). The trend of the time series was tested with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated with simple linear regression. Rice development has changed over the last ten decades in this location, leading to an anticipation of harvest time of 17 to 31 days, depending on the cultivar maturity group and emergence date, which is related to trends of temperature increase during the growing season. Warmer temperatures over the evaluated time period are responsible for changing rice phenology in this location, since minimum and maximum daily temperature drive the rice developmental models used.