Um Modelo Fuzzy Comportamental para análise de sobre-reação e sub-reação no mercado de ações brasileiro

Neste artigo, são apresentados testes empíricos para a investigação de ocorrência de fenômenos de sobre-reação e sub-reação no mercado de ações brasileiro. Para esses testes, é proposto um modelo baseado na teoria de conjuntos Fuzzy, que possui forte relação com as heurísticas de representatividade e ancoramento, estabelecidas na teoria de finanças comportamentais. O modelo proposto é empregado para a formação de carteiras e utiliza indicadores financeiros de companhias abertas. Para as análises são utilizados dois conjuntos de ações, um do setor de petróleo e petroquímica e outro do setor têxtil, com indicadores financeiros relativos ao período de 1994 a 2005.

Consumer Culture Theory (CCT) já é uma escola de pensamento em marketing?

A década de 1980 trouxe uma visão alternativa à corrente positivista predominante no campo de pesquisa do consumidor: a Consumer Culture Theory (CCT), que assume uma orientação epistemológica baseada no interpretativismo e na pesquisa qualitativa. Diante do destaque alcançado pela CCT, levantou-se a seguinte questão: a CCT já pode ser considerada uma escola de pensamento em marketing autônoma? Pautados em três critérios fundamentais para a qualificação de uma escola de pensamento (reconhecimento acadêmico, corpo de conhecimento e contribuições), foi realizada uma desk research, baseada em periódicos e artigos da área e na construção de um corpus de pesquisa construído com base nas referências contidas no texto seminal Consumer Culture Theory (CCT): twenty years of research. A conclusão é de que a CCT atende aos critérios adotados na presente pesquisa, podendo ser considerada uma escola de pensamento a utônoma dentro do campo de pesquisa do consumo.

Theory of reasoned action for continuous improvement capabilities: a behavioral approach

The importance of interaction between Operations Management (OM) and Human Behavior has been recently re-addressed. This paper introduced the Reasoned Action Theory suggested by Froehle and Roth (2004) to analyze Operational Capabilities exploring the suitability of this model in the context of OM. It also seeks to discuss the behavioral aspects of operational capabilities from the perspective of organizational routines. This theory was operationalized using Fishbein and Ajzen (F/A) behavioral model and a multi-case strategy was employed to analyze the Continuous Improvement (CI) capability. The results posit that the model explains partially the CI behavior in an operational context and some contingency variables might influence the general relations among the variables involved in the F/A model. Thus intention might not be the determinant variable of behavior in this context.

Organizing resistance movements: contribution of the political discourse theory

The main purpose of this paper is to explore the possibility of articulating Political Discourse Theory (PDT) together with Organizational Studies (OS), while using the opportunity to introduce PDT to those OS scholars who have not yet come across it. The bulk of this paper introduces the main concepts of PDT, discussing how they have been applied to concrete, empirical studies of resistance movements. In recent years, PDT has been increasingly appropriated by OS scholars to problematize and analyze resistances and other forms of social antagonisms within organizational settings, taking the relational and contingent aspects of struggles into consideration. While the paper supports the idea of a joint articulation of PDT and OS, it raises a number of critical questions of how PDT concepts have been empirically used to explain the organization of resistance movements. The paper sets out a research agenda for how both PDT and OS can together contribute to our understanding of new, emerging organizational forms of resistance movements.

UM MODELO FUZZY-DEA-GAME PARA ESTRATÉGIAS DE PRODUÇÃO SOB INCERTEZA

Este trabalho desenvolve um novo modelo Fuzzy-DEA-Game (FDG) para apoiar o estabelecimento de estratégias de produção. Esse modelo combina a Análise Envoltória de Dados (DEA) com conceitos da Teoria dos Conjuntos Fuzzy e do Jogo da Barganha de Nash. O modelo permite uma avaliação da eficiência produtiva e econômica dos produtos, o que pode resultar num portfólio de produtos mais rentáveis e de interesse do mercado consumidor. O modelo foi aplicado em uma empresa do segmento de energia. Os resultados obtidos com a aplicação do modelo FDG mostraram-se aderentes à realidade da empresa estudada e forneceram metas para a redução dos níveis de recursos (entradas) necessários para a fabricação dos produtos e para aumento dos níveis de resultados (saídas) oriundos da comercialização desses produtos. Como resultado adicional importante, o modelo FDG permitiu a identificação dos produtos do portfólio que são mais sensíveis à ocorrência de incerteza.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Lógica fuzzy e regressão logística na decisão para prática de cintilografia das paratiróides

OBJETIVO: Desenvolver e comparar dois modelos matemáticos, um deles baseado em regressão logística e o outro em teoria de conjuntos fuzzy, para definir a indicação para a realização do exame cintilográfico a partir de resultados dos exames laboratoriais. MÉTODOS: Foram identificados 194 pacientes que tiveram cálcio e paratormônio séricos medidos a partir da base de registros de cintilografia de paratiróides realizadas em laboratório de diagnóstico de São Paulo, no período de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2004. O modelo de regressão logística foi desenvolvido utilizando-se o software SPSS e o modelo fuzzy, o Matlab. A performance dos modelos foi comparada utilizando-se curvas ROC. RESULTADOS: Os modelos apresentaram diferenças estatisticamente significantes (p=0,026) nos seus desempenhos. A área sob a curva ROC do modelo de regressão logística foi de 0,862 (IC 95%: 0,811-0,913) e do modelo de lógica fuzzy foi 0,887 (IC 95%: 0,840-0,933). Este último destacou-se como particularmente útil porque, ao contrário do modelo logístico, mostrou capacidade de utilizar informações de paratormônio em intervalo em que os valores de cálcio mostraram-se pouco discriminantes. CONCLUSÕES: O modelo matemático baseado em teoria de conjuntos fuzzy pareceu ser mais adequado do que o baseado em regressão logística como método para decisão da realização de cintilografia das paratiróides. Todavia, sendo resultado de um exercício metodológico, inferências sobre o comportamento do objeto podem ser impróprias, dada a não representatividade populacional dos dados.

Towards a Unified Theory of Health-Disease: I. Health as a complex model-object

Theory building is one of the most crucial challenges faced by basic, clinical and population research, which form the scientific foundations of health practices in contemporary societies. The objective of the study is to propose a Unified Theory of Health-Disease as a conceptual tool for modeling health-disease-care in the light of complexity approaches. With this aim, the epistemological basis of theoretical work in the health field and concepts related to complexity theory as concerned to health problems are discussed. Secondly, the concepts of model-object, multi-planes of occurrence, modes of health and disease-illness-sickness complex are introduced and integrated into a unified theoretical framework. Finally, in the light of recent epistemological developments, the concept of Health-Disease-Care Integrals is updated as a complex reference object fit for modeling health-related processes and phenomena.

Towards a unified theory of health-disease: II. Holopathogenesis

This article presents a systematic framework for modeling several classes of illness-sickness-disease named as Holopathogenesis. Holopathogenesis is defined as processes of over-determination of diseases and related conditions taken as a whole, comprising selected facets of the complex object Health. First, a conceptual background of Holopathogenesis is presented as a series of significant interfaces (biomolecular-immunological, physiopathological-clinical, epidemiological-ecosocial). Second, propositions derived from Holopathogenesis are introduced in order to allow drawing the disease-illness-sickness complex as a hierarchical network of networks. Third, a formalization of intra- and inter-level correspondences, over-determination processes, effects and links of Holopathogenesis models is proposed. Finally, the Holopathogenesis frame is evaluated as a comprehensive theoretical pathology taken as a preliminary step towards a unified theory of health-disease.

HIV/AIDS knowledge among men who have sex with men: applying the item response theory

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the level of HIV/AIDS knowledge among men who have sex with men in Brazil using the latent trait model estimated by Item Response Theory. METHODS Multicenter, cross-sectional study, carried out in ten Brazilian cities between 2008 and 2009. Adult men who have sex with men were recruited (n = 3,746) through Respondent Driven Sampling. HIV/AIDS knowledge was ascertained through ten statements by face-to-face interview and latent scores were obtained through two-parameter logistic modeling (difficulty and discrimination) using Item Response Theory. Differential item functioning was used to examine each item characteristic curve by age and schooling. RESULTS Overall, the HIV/AIDS knowledge scores using Item Response Theory did not exceed 6.0 (scale 0-10), with mean and median values of 5.0 (SD = 0.9) and 5.3, respectively, with 40.7% of the sample with knowledge levels below the average. Some beliefs still exist in this population regarding the transmission of the virus by insect bites, by using public restrooms, and by sharing utensils during meals. With regard to the difficulty and discrimination parameters, eight items were located below the mean of the scale and were considered very easy, and four items presented very low discrimination parameter (< 0.34). The absence of difficult items contributed to the inaccuracy of the measurement of knowledge among those with median level and above. CONCLUSIONS Item Response Theory analysis, which focuses on the individual properties of each item, allows measures to be obtained that do not vary or depend on the questionnaire, which provides better ascertainment and accuracy of knowledge scores. Valid and reliable scales are essential for monitoring HIV/AIDS knowledge among the men who have sex with men population over time and in different geographic regions, and this psychometric model brings this advantage.