A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Close relationship between diameters at 30cm height and at breast height (DBH)

This paper proposes the establishment of a second diameter measuring standard at 30cm shoot extension ('diam30') as input variable for allometric biomass estimation of small and mid-sized plant shoots. This diameter standard is better suited than the diameter at breast height (DBH, i.e. diameter at 1.30m shoot extension) for adequate characterization of plant dimensions in low bushy vegetation or in primary forest undergrowth. The relationships between both diameter standards are established based on a dataset of 8645 tree, liana and palm shoots in secondary and primary forests of central Amazonia (ranging from 1-150mm dbh). Dbh can be predicted from the diam(30) with high precision, the error introduced by diameter transformation is only 2-3% for trees and palms, and 5% for lianas. This is well acceptable for most field study purposes. Relationships deviate slightly from linearity and differ between growth forms. Relationships were markedly similar for different vegetation types (low secondary regrowth vs. primary forests), soils, and selected genera or species. This points to a general validity and applicability of diameter transformations for other field studies. This study provides researchers with a tool for the allometric estimation of biomass in low or structurally heterogeneous vegetation. Rather than applying a uniform diameter standard, the measuring position which best represents the respective plant can be decided on shoot-by-shoot. Plant diameters measured at 30cm height can be transformed to dbh for subsequent allometric biomass estimation. We recommend the use of these diameter transformations only for plants extending well beyond the theoretical minimum shoot length (i.e., >2m height). This study also prepares the ground for the comparability and compatability of future allometric equations specifically developed for small- to mid-sized vegetation components (i.e., bushes, undergrowth) which are based on the diam(30) measuring standard.

Comportamento dos cromossômios na meiose de Euryophthalmus rufipennis Laporte (Hemiptera Pyrrhocoridae)

In this paper an account is given of the principal facts observer in the meiosis of Euryophthalmus rufipennis Laporte which afford some evidence in favour of the view held by the present writer in earlier publications regarding the existence of two terminal kinetochores in Hem ip ter an chromosomes as well as the transverse division of the chromosomes. Spermatogonial mitosis - From the beginning of prophase until metaphase nothing worthy of special reference was observed. At anaphase, on the contrary, the behavior of the chromosomes deserves our best attention. Indeed, the chromoso- mes, as soon as they begin to move, they show both ends pronouncedly turned toward the poles to which they are connected by chromosomal fibres. So a premature and remarkable bending of the chromosomes not yet found in any other species of Hemiptera and even of Homoptera points strongly to terminally localized kinetochores. The explanation proposed by HUGHES-SCHRADER and RIS for Nautococcus and by RIS for Tamalia, whose chromosomes first become bent late in anaphase do not apply to chromosomes which initiate anaphase movement already turned toward the corresponding pole. In the other hand, the variety of positions assumed by the anaphase chromosomes of Euryophthalmus with regard to one another speaks conclusively against the idea of diffuse spindle attachments. First meiotic division - Corresponding to the beginning of the story of the primary spermatocytes cells are found with the nucleus entirelly filled with leptonema threads. Nuclei with thin and thick threads have been considered as being in the zygotente phase. At the pachytene stage the bivalents are formed by two parallel strands clearly separated by a narrow space. The preceding phases differ in nothing from the corresponding orthodox ones, pairing being undoubtedly of the parasynaptic type. Formation of tetrads - When the nuclei coming from the diffuse stage can be again understood the chromosomes reappear as thick threads formed by two filaments intimately united except for a short median segment. Becoming progressively shorter and thicker the bivalents sometimes unite their extremities forming ring-shaped figures. Generally, however, this does not happen and the bivalents give origin to more or less condensed characteristic Hemipteran tetrads, bent at the weak median region. The lateral duplicity of the tetrads is evident. At metaphase the tetrads are still bent and are connected with both poles by their ends. The ring-shaped diakinesis tetrads open themselves out before metaphase, showing in this way that were not chiasmata that held their ends together. Anaphase proceeds as expected. If we consider the median region of the tetrads as being terminalized chiasmata, then the chromosomes are provided with a single terminal kinetochore. But this it not the case. A critical analysis of the story of the bivalents before and after the diffuse stage points to the conclusion that they are continuous throughout their whole length. Thence the chromosomes are considered as having a kinetochore at each end. Orientation - There are some evidences that Hemipteran chromosomes are connected by chiasmata. If this is true, the orientation of the tetrads may be understood in the following manner: Chiasmata being hindered to scape by the terminal kinetochores accumulate at the ends of the tetrads, where condensation begins. Repulsion at the centric ends being prevented by chiasmata the tetrads orient themselves as if they were provided with a single kinetochore at each extremity, taking a position parallelly to the spindle axis. Anaphase separation - Anaphase separation is consequently due to a transverse division of the chromosomes. Telophase and secund meiotic division - At telophase the kinetochore repeli one another following the moving apart of the centosomes, the chiasmata slip toward the acentric extremities and the chromosomes rotate in order to arrange themselves parallelly to the axis of the new spindle. Separation is therefore throughout the pairing plane. Origin of the dicentricity of the chromosomes - Dicentricity of the chromosomes is ascribed to the division of the kinetochore of the chromosomes reaching the poles followed by separation and distension of the chromatids which remain fused at the acentric ends giving thus origin to terminally dicentric iso-chromosomes. Thence, the transverse division of the chromosomes, that is, a division through a plane perpendicular to the plane of pairing, actually corresponds to a longitudinal division realized in the preceding generation. Inactive and active kinetochores - Chromosomes carrying inactive kinetochore is not capable of orientation and active anaphasic movements. The heterochromosome of Diactor bilineatus in the division of the secondary spermatocytes is justly in this case, standing without fibrilar connection with the poles anywhere in the cell, while the autosomes are moving regularly. The heterochromosome of Euryophthalmus, on the contrary, having its kinetochores perfectly active ,is correctly oriented in the plane of the equator together with the autosomes and shows terminal chromosomal connection with both poles. Being attracted with equal strength by two opposite poles it cannot decide to the one way or the other remaining motionless in the equator until some secondary causes (as for instances a slight functional difference between the kinetochores) intervene to break the state of equilibrium. When Yiothing interferes to aide the heterochromosome in choosing its way it distends itself between the autosomal plates forming a fusiform bridge which sometimes finishes by being broken. Ordinarily, however, the bulky part of the heterochromosome passes to one pole. Spindle fibers and kinetic activity of chromosomal fragments - The kinetochore is considered as the unique part of the chromosome capable of being influenced by other kinetochore or by the poles. Under such influence the kinetochore would be stimulated or activited and would elaborate a sort of impulse which would run toward the ends. In this respect the chromosome may be compared to a neüròn, the cell being represented by the kinetochore and the axon by the body of the chromosome. Due to the action of the kinetochore the entire chromosome becomes also activated for performing its kinetic function. Nothing is known at present about the nature of this activation. We can however assume that some active chemical substance like those produced by the neuron and transferred to the effector passes from the kinetochore to the body of the chromosome runing down to the ends. And, like an axon which continues to transmit an impulse after the stimulating agent has suspended its action, so may the chromosome show some residual kinetic activity even after having lost its kinetochore. This is another explanation for the kinetic behavior of acentric chromosomal fragmehs. In the orthodox monocentric chromosomes the kinetic activity is greater at the kinetochore, that is, at the place of origin of the active substance than at any other place. In chromosomes provided with a kinetochore at each end the entire body may become active enough to produce chromosomal fibers. This is probably due to a more or less uniform distribution and concentration of the active substance coming simultaneously from both extremities of the chromosome.

A determinação dos números de indivíduos mínimos necessários na experimentação genética

The main object of the present paper consists in giving formulas and methods which enable us to determine the minimum number of repetitions or of individuals necessary to garantee some extent the success of an experiment. The theoretical basis of all processes consists essentially in the following. Knowing the frequency of the desired p and of the non desired ovents q we may calculate the frequency of all possi- ble combinations, to be expected in n repetitions, by expanding the binomium (p-+q)n. Determining which of these combinations we want to avoid we calculate their total frequency, selecting the value of the exponent n of the binomium in such a way that this total frequency is equal or smaller than the accepted limit of precision n/pª{ 1/n1 (q/p)n + 1/(n-1)| (q/p)n-1 + 1/ 2!(n-2)| (q/p)n-2 + 1/3(n-3) (q/p)n-3... < Plim - -(1b) There does not exist an absolute limit of precision since its value depends not only upon psychological factors in our judgement, but is at the same sime a function of the number of repetitions For this reasen y have proposed (1,56) two relative values, one equal to 1-5n as the lowest value of probability and the other equal to 1-10n as the highest value of improbability, leaving between them what may be called the "region of doubt However these formulas cannot be applied in our case since this number n is just the unknown quantity. Thus we have to use, instead of the more exact values of these two formulas, the conventional limits of P.lim equal to 0,05 (Precision 5%), equal to 0,01 (Precision 1%, and to 0,001 (Precision P, 1%). The binominal formula as explained above (cf. formula 1, pg. 85), however is of rather limited applicability owing to the excessive calculus necessary, and we have thus to procure approximations as substitutes. We may use, without loss of precision, the following approximations: a) The normal or Gaussean distribution when the expected frequency p has any value between 0,1 and 0,9, and when n is at least superior to ten. b) The Poisson distribution when the expected frequecy p is smaller than 0,1. Tables V to VII show for some special cases that these approximations are very satisfactory. The praticai solution of the following problems, stated in the introduction can now be given: A) What is the minimum number of repititions necessary in order to avoid that any one of a treatments, varieties etc. may be accidentally always the best, on the best and second best, or the first, second, and third best or finally one of the n beat treatments, varieties etc. Using the first term of the binomium, we have the following equation for n: n = log Riim / log (m:) = log Riim / log.m - log a --------------(5) B) What is the minimun number of individuals necessary in 01der that a ceratin type, expected with the frequency p, may appaer at least in one, two, three or a=m+1 individuals. 1) For p between 0,1 and 0,9 and using the Gaussean approximation we have: on - ó. p (1-p) n - a -1.m b= δ. 1-p /p e c = m/p } -------------------(7) n = b + b² + 4 c/ 2 n´ = 1/p n cor = n + n' ---------- (8) We have to use the correction n' when p has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. The greek letters delta represents in the present esse the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution for the three conventional limits of precision : 1,64; 2,33; and 3,09 respectively. h we are only interested in having at least one individual, and m becomes equal to zero, the formula reduces to : c= m/p o para a = 1 a = { b + b²}² = b² = δ2 1- p /p }-----------------(9) n = 1/p n (cor) = n + n´ 2) If p is smaller than 0,1 we may use table 1 in order to find the mean m of a Poisson distribution and determine. n = m: p C) Which is the minimun number of individuals necessary for distinguishing two frequencies p1 and p2? 1) When pl and p2 are values between 0,1 and 0,9 we have: n = { δ p1 ( 1-pi) + p2) / p2 (1 - p2) n= 1/p1-p2 }------------ (13) n (cor) We have again to use the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution. The correction n' should be used if at least one of the valors pl or p2 has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. A more complicated formula may be used in cases where whe want to increase the precision : n (p1 - p2) δ { p1 (1- p2 ) / n= m δ = δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p2 ( 1 - p2) c= m / p1 - p2 n = { b2 + 4 4 c }2 }--------- (14) n = 1/ p1 - p2 2) When both pl and p2 are smaller than 0,1 we determine the quocient (pl-r-p2) and procure the corresponding number m2 of a Poisson distribution in table 2. The value n is found by the equation : n = mg /p2 ------------- (15) D) What is the minimun number necessary for distinguishing three or more frequencies, p2 p1 p3. If the frequecies pl p2 p3 are values between 0,1 e 0,9 we have to solve the individual equations and sue the higest value of n thus determined : n 1.2 = {δ p1 (1 - p1) / p1 - p2 }² = Fiim n 1.2 = { δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p1 ( 1 - p1) }² } -- (16) Delta represents now the bilateral limits of the : Gaussean distrioution : 1,96-2,58-3,29. 2) No table was prepared for the relatively rare cases of a comparison of threes or more frequencies below 0,1 and in such cases extremely high numbers would be required. E) A process is given which serves to solve two problemr of informatory nature : a) if a special type appears in n individuals with a frequency p(obs), what may be the corresponding ideal value of p(esp), or; b) if we study samples of n in diviuals and expect a certain type with a frequency p(esp) what may be the extreme limits of p(obs) in individual farmlies ? I.) If we are dealing with values between 0,1 and 0,9 we may use table 3. To solve the first question we select the respective horizontal line for p(obs) and determine which column corresponds to our value of n and find the respective value of p(esp) by interpolating between columns. In order to solve the second problem we start with the respective column for p(esp) and find the horizontal line for the given value of n either diretly or by approximation and by interpolation. 2) For frequencies smaller than 0,1 we have to use table 4 and transform the fractions p(esp) and p(obs) in numbers of Poisson series by multiplication with n. Tn order to solve the first broblem, we verify in which line the lower Poisson limit is equal to m(obs) and transform the corresponding value of m into frequecy p(esp) by dividing through n. The observed frequency may thus be a chance deviate of any value between 0,0... and the values given by dividing the value of m in the table by n. In the second case we transform first the expectation p(esp) into a value of m and procure in the horizontal line, corresponding to m(esp) the extreme values om m which than must be transformed, by dividing through n into values of p(obs). F) Partial and progressive tests may be recomended in all cases where there is lack of material or where the loss of time is less importent than the cost of large scale experiments since in many cases the minimun number necessary to garantee the results within the limits of precision is rather large. One should not forget that the minimun number really represents at the same time a maximun number, necessary only if one takes into consideration essentially the disfavorable variations, but smaller numbers may frequently already satisfactory results. For instance, by definition, we know that a frequecy of p means that we expect one individual in every total o(f1-p). If there were no chance variations, this number (1- p) will be suficient. and if there were favorable variations a smaller number still may yield one individual of the desired type. r.nus trusting to luck, one may start the experiment with numbers, smaller than the minimun calculated according to the formulas given above, and increase the total untill the desired result is obtained and this may well b ebefore the "minimum number" is reached. Some concrete examples of this partial or progressive procedure are given from our genetical experiments with maize.

Microdeterminação do arsênico

Studying the application of those methods of microanalysis which avoid costly instalations and atempting to combine high precision with low cost, the author recomends a new method consisting of the following : a) exposure of a surface of 530.66 mm2 of Zn to the action of the acid. b) instalation of 3 series of HgBr2 paper in test tubes with an internal diameter of respectively 3,5 and 9 mm. c - mouting between two slides, covering the margins (with parafin etc.) with parafin in order to conserve the results of the determination without change due to the action of light or moisture. d) the results can be compared at a level of 0.00001 mgr. A203 or 0.000007575 mgr. As.

Estudo comparativo entre métodos de contrôle quantitativo da produção leiteira

This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.

Solubilidade de fosfatos naturais em solução de ácido cítrico a 2%: modificação nas condições de agitação

This paper deals with a modification in the solubilization technique of natural phophates in the 2% citric acid solution. The proposed technique is as follows: 2,5 g of phosphatic material and 250 ml of 2% citric acid solution, in a 500 ml Erlenmeyer flask, are shaken for 30 minutes at 30-40 rpm. The phosphorus (P2O5) was determined by the usual method. The data obtained were compared with the conventional technique in which a Stohmann bottle is used. The natural phosphates used were: Phosphorita de Olinda (Pernambuco), Flórida Phosphate (USA) and Hiperphosphate (África). Statistical analysis was applied to the data and the following conclusions were arrived at: a) The precision is equivalent in both techniques. b) There is no significant variation between the means obtained with the two technique.

Sôbre uma modificação na determinação do Molibdênio em Plantas

The author proposed a new modification on the thiocyanate-stannous chloride method for the determination of molibdenum, when is used a heavier-than-water solvent for extrating the colored molybdenum thiocyanate complex. Carbon tetrachloride - butyl alcohol is the mixture proposed, and the results obtained give a good precision and more sensibility than the other method that use carbon tetrachloride-isoamyl alcohol as extractant.

Estudos sobre a resistência ao jejum e aspectos nutricionais de Cavernicola lenti Barrett & Arias, 1985 (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae)

In order to widen the present knowledge on the biology of this species, a study on the resistance to starvation was carried out among all nymphal stages and the adult stage (male and female). All evolutive stages were weighed on precision scale in three different nutritional situations: fed, non-fed and death registered after starvation. This procedure has allowed us to calculate the amount of blood taken in each stage and during the whole cycle, the average loss of weight during starvation and its relations with the initial weight. The insects were fed on mice and after eclosion or ecdisis they were isolated for observation of the starving period. Throuhout the whole experiment they were kept in a B. O. D./DOB incubator (28ºC and 90%R.U.). The resistance to starvation of the insects has grown from the first stage on (average of 15.5 days) to the fifth stage (average of 75.64 days); on the adult stage, the resistance period was equal to the third stage with an average of 41.76 for the males and 44.82 for the females. The amount of ingested blood was greater at the fifth stage worth 34.14 mg, corresponding to 2,04 times its initial weight. The average weight loss during the starvation was greater at the adult stage (23.95 mg), corresponding to 61.52% of the total weight.

A study on the pathogenesis of human cerebral malaria and cerebral babesiosis

Cerebral complications are important, but poorly understood pathological features of infections caused by some species of Plasmodium and Babesia. Patients dying from P. falciparum were classified as cerebral or non-cerebral cases according to the cerebral malaria coma scale. Light microscopy revealed that cerebral microvessels of cerebral malaria patients were field with a mixture of parazited and unparazited erythrocytes, with 94% of the vessels showing parasitized red blood cell (PRBC) sequestration. Some degree of PRBC sequestration was also found in non-cerebral malaria patients, but the percentage of microvessls with sequestered PRBC was only 13% Electron microscopy demonstrated knobs on the membrane of PRBC that formed focal junctions with the capillary endothelium. A number of host cell molecules such as CD36, thrombospondim (TSP) and intracellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-1) may function as endothelial cell surfacereports for P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes. Affinity labeling of CD36 and TSP to the PRBC surface showed these molecules specifically bind to the knobs. Babesia bovis infected erythrocytes procedure projections of the erythrocyte membrane that are similar to knobs. When brain tissue from B. bovis-infected cattle was examined, cerebral capillaries were packed with PRBC. Infected erythrocytes formed focal attachments with cerebral endothelial cells at the site of these knob-like projections. These findings indicate that cerebral pathology caused by B. bovis is similar to human cerebral malaria. A search for cytoadherence proteins in the endothelial cells may lead to a better understanding of the pathogenisis of cerebral babesiosis.

Reliability of current estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence in the Rainforest Zone of the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil

The Program for Schistosomiasis Control within the Unified Health System (PCE-SUS) was implemented by 1999 in the Rainforest Zone or "Zona da Mata" of Pernambuco (ZMP) aiming to carry out biennial stool surveys of whole populations through municipal health organs followed by treatment of the positives through the local units of the Family Health Program (PSF). Yearly reports from the Health Department of Pernambuco State (SES/PE) from 2002 to 2004 on the PCE-SUS surveys were assessed to evaluate whether the current estimates of prevalence in the municipalities of the ZMP are based on reliable samples so as to allow considerations on the real situation of schistosomiasis in that area. The surveys carried out in that period did not follow the major principles underlying sampling design, thus posing problems in both precision and validity of the estimates. Only 12 out of 43 municipalities had minimally reliable estimates: five with moderate prevalence (10-50%) and seven with low prevalence (< 10%). Surveys with appropriate sampling procedures aimed either at representative target groups (school-aged children) or communities are recommended for the ZMP and other endemic areas not only to provide reliable information on the current situation of schistosomiasis but also to plan adequate control strategies.

Accuracy of phenotypic methicillin susceptibility methods in the detection of Staphylococcus aureus isolates carrying different SCCmec types

A total of 138 isolates, 118 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates (staphylococcal cassette chromosome type II, 20 isolates, type III, 39 isolates and type IV, 59 isolates) and 20 methicillin-sensitive S. aureus isolates were evaluated by phenotypic methods: cefoxitin and oxacillin disk diffusion (DD), agar dilution (AD), latex agglutination (LA), oxacillin agar screening (OAS) and chromogenic agar detection. All methods showed 100% specificity, but only the DD tests presented 100% sensitivity. The sensitivity of the other tests ranged from 82.2% (OAS)-98.3% (AD). The LA test showed the second lowest sensitivity (86.4%). The DD test showed high accuracy in the detection of MRSA isolates, but there was low precision in the detection of type IV isolates by the other tests, indicating that the genotypic characteristics of the isolates should be considered.

Dielectric constant obtained from TDR and volumetric moisture of soils in southern Brazil

Soil moisture is the property which most greatly influences the soil dielectric constant, which is also influenced by soil mineralogy. The aim of this study was to determine mathematical models for soil moisture and the dielectric constant (Ka) for a Hapludalf, two clayey Hapludox and a very clayey Hapludox and test the reliability of universal models, such as those proposed by Topp and Ledieu and their co-workers in the 80's, and specific models to estimate soil moisture with a TDR. Soil samples were collected from the 0 to 0.30 m layer, sieved through a mesh of 0.002 m diameter and packed in PVC cylinders with a 0.1 m diameter and 0.3 m height. Seven samples of each soil class were saturated by capillarity and a probe composed of two rods was inserted in each one of them. Moisture readings began with the saturated soil and concluded when the soil was near permanent wilting point. In each step, the samples were weighed on a precision scale to calculate volumetric moisture. Linear and polynomial models were adjusted for each soil class and for all soils together between soil moisture and the dielectric constant. Accuracy of the models was evaluated by the coefficient of determination, the standard error of estimate and the 1:1 line. The models proposed by Topp and Ledieu and their co-workers were not adequate for estimating the moisture in the soil classes studied. The adjusted linear and polynomial models for the entire set of data of the four soil classes did not have sufficient accuracy for estimating soil moisture. The greater the soil clay and Fe oxide content, the greater the dielectric constant of the medium for a given volumetric moisture. The specific models, θ = 0.40283 - 0.04231 Ka + 0.00194 Ka² - 0.000022 Ka³ (Hapludox) θ = 0.01971 + 0.02902 Ka - 0.00086 Ka² + 0.000012 Ka³ (Hapludox -PF), θ = 0.01692 - 0.00507 Ka (Hapludalf) and θ = 0.08471 + 0.01145 Ka (Hapludox-CA), show greater accuracy and reliability for estimating soil moisture in the soil classes studied.

Multivariate analysis and geostatistics of the fertility of a humic rhodic hapludox under coffee cultivation

The spatial variability of soil and plant properties exerts great influence on the yeld of agricultural crops. This study analyzed the spatial variability of the fertility of a Humic Rhodic Hapludox with Arabic coffee, using principal component analysis, cluster analysis and geostatistics in combination. The experiment was carried out in an area under Coffea arabica L., variety Catucai 20/15 - 479. The soil was sampled at a depth 0.20 m, at 50 points of a sampling grid. The following chemical properties were determined: P, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, S, Al3+, pH, H + Al, SB, t, T, V, m, OM, Na saturation index (SSI), remaining phosphorus (P-rem), and micronutrients (Zn, Fe, Mn, Cu and B). The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, followed by principal component and cluster analyses. Geostatistics were used to check and quantify the degree of spatial dependence of properties, represented by principal components. The principal component analysis allowed a dimensional reduction of the problem, providing interpretable components, with little information loss. Despite the characteristic information loss of principal component analysis, the combination of this technique with geostatistical analysis was efficient for the quantification and determination of the structure of spatial dependence of soil fertility. In general, the availability of soil mineral nutrients was low and the levels of acidity and exchangeable Al were high.

Spatial relationships between soil attributes and corn yield in no-tillage system

Soil properties play an important role in spatial variability of crop yield. However, a low spatial correlation has generally been observed between maps of crop yield and of soil properties. The objectives of the present investigation were to assess the spatial pattern variability of soil properties and of corn yield at the same sampling intensity, and evaluate its cause-and-effect relationships. The experimental site was structured in a grid of 100 referenced points, spaced at 10 m intervals along four parallel 250 m long rows spaced 4.5 m apart. Thus, points formed a rectangle containing four columns and 25 rows. Therefore, each sampling cell encompassed an area of 45 m² and consisted of five 10 m long crop rows, in which the referenced points represented the center. Samples were taken from the layers 0-0.1 m and 0.1-0.2 m. Soil physical and chemical properties were evaluated. Statistical analyses consisted of data description and geostatistics. The spatial dependence of corn yield and soil properties was confirmed. The hypothesis of this study was confirmed, i.e., when sampling the soil to determine the values of soil characteristics at similar to sampling intensity as for crop yield assessments, correlations between the spatial distribution of soil characteristics and crop yield were observed. The spatial distribution pattern of soil properties explained 65 % of the spatial distribution pattern of corn yield. The spatial distribution pattern of clay content and percentage of soil base saturation explained most of the spatial distribution pattern of corn yield.