31 resultados para Expectation-conditional Maximization (ecm)
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between physical activity during the second trimester pregnancy and low birth weight, preterm birth, and intrauterine growth restriction. METHODS: Case-control study including 273 low birth weight newborns and 546 controls carried out in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, in 2005. Low birth weight cases were grouped into two subsamples: preterm birth (n=117) and intrauterine growth restriction (n=134), with their related controls. Information was collected by means of interviews with mothers shortly after birth and transcription of medical records. Data were analyzed using conditional multiple and hierarchical logistic regression. RESULTS: Light physical activity for over 7 hours per day was shown to be protective against low birth weight (adjusted OR=0.61; 95% CI 0.39-0.94) with a dose-response relationship (p-value for trend=0.026). A similar trend was found for intrauterine growth restriction (adjusted OR=0.51; 95% CI 0.26-0.97). Homemaking activities were associated as a protective factor for both low birth weight and preterm birth (p-value for trend=0.013 and 0.035, respectively). Leisure-time walking was found to be protective against preterm birth. CONCLUSIONS: Mild physical activity during the second trimester of pregnancy such as walking has an independent protective effect on low birth weight, preterm birth, and intrauterine growth restriction.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the factors associated with a lack of prenatal care in a large municipality in southern Brazil. METHODS In this case-control age-matched study, 716 women were evaluated; of these, 179 did not receive prenatal care and 537 received prenatal care (controls). These women were identified using the Sistema Nacional de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos (Live Birth Information System) of Pelotas, RS, Southern Brazil, between 2009 and 2010. Multivariate analysis was performed using conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (OR). RESULTS In the final model, the variables associated with a lack of prenatal care were the level of education, particularly when it was lesser than four years [OR 4.46; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.92;10.36], being single (OR 3.61; 95%CI 1.85;7.04), and multiparity (OR 2.89; 95%CI 1.72;4.85). The prevalence of a lack of prenatal care among administrative regions varied between 0.7% and 3.9%. CONCLUSIONS The risk factors identified must be considered when planning actions for the inclusion of women in prenatal care by both the central management and healthcare teams. These indicated the municipal areas with greater deficits in prenatal care. The reorganization of the actions to identify women with risk factors in the community can be considered to be a starting point of this process. In addition, the integration of the activities of local programs that target the mother and child is essential to constantly identify pregnant women without prenatal care.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze conditional and unconditional healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women.METHODS This cross-sectional study used the intercensal technique to estimate, in the absence of longitudinal data, healthy life expectancy that is conditional and unconditional on the individual’s current health status. The data used were obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (National Household Sample Survey) of 1998, 2003, and 2008. This sample comprised 11,171; 13,694; and 16,259 women aged 65 years or more, respectively. Complete mortality tables from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics for the years 2001 and 2006 were also used. The definition of health status was based on the difficulty in performing activities of daily living.RESULTS The remaining lifetime was strongly dependent on the current health status of the older women. Between 1998 and 2003, the amount of time lived with disability for healthy women at age 65 was 9.8%. This percentage increased to 66.2% when the women already presented some disability at age 65. Temporal analysis showed that the active life expectancy of the women at age 65 increased between 1998-2003 (19.3 years) and 2003-2008 (19.4 years). However, life years gained have been mainly focused on the unhealthy state.CONCLUSIONS Analysis of conditional and unconditional life expectancy indicated that live years gained are a result of the decline of mortality in unhealthy states. This pattern suggests that there has been no reduction in morbidity among older women in Brazil between 1998 and 2008.
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INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.
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Introduction Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is primarily transmitted via contact with the blood of infected patients, although the form of contact has not been identified for a significant percentage of carriers. The present study evaluated possible risk factors for HCV transmission in a medium-sized town located in the northwest region of the State of São Paulo. Methods This was a case-control study, with the case group consisting of 190 chronic HCV carriers older than 18 years residing in the municipality of Catanduva. The control group also consisted of 190 individuals with HCV-negative serology. The groups were paired (1:1) for gender, age range (± five years), and place of residence. The same structured questionnaire was applied to all subjects, who gave written informed consent to participate in the study. The data were statistically analyzed using crude and adjusted logistic regression, and the results were expressed as odds ratios with a 95% confidence interval. Results The demographic profiles of the groups indicated a predominance of males (68.9%) and mean ages of 47.1 years (case group) and 47.3 years (control group). After adjusting for conditional regression, the following factors were found to represent risks for HCV: history of sexually transmitted disease (STD) and blood transfusion; accidents with syringes and/or needles; tattoos; and the use of non-injectable drugs and injectable medications. Conclusions The transmission of HCV via the blood route has been well characterized. Other forms of contact with human blood and/or secretions are likely to transmit the virus, although with a lower frequency of occurrence.
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This study evaluated the occurrence of American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, in the last 30 years with emphasis on the last 10 years (2001 to 2010). The disease was predominantly observed in males (76.2%), in the 21- to 30-year-old age group (26.6%) and in extractive workers (43.7%); 3.3% of the cases were the mucosal form. The endemic channel shows the disease seasonality, with a predominance of cases at the beginning and end of each year. The number of cases by municipality in the period of 2001-2010 shows the maintenance of the endemic in the localities where the highest numbers of cases have always been registered, namely, Manaus, Rio Preto da Eva, Itacoatiara and Presidente Figueiredo. The comparison of data from 2001 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2010 showed the emergence of this disease in municipalities that had been previously unaffected. In the last years, there has been a significant increase in the activities of control, diagnosis and treatment of leishmaniasis in the State of Amazonas. In conclusion, the historical series of ATL analyzed in this study suggests that the transmission foci remain and are even expanding, though without continuous transmission in the intra- or peridomicile settings. Moreover, the disease will persist in the Amazon while the factors associated with infection acquisition relative to forest exploitation continue to have economic appeal. There is a real expectation of wide variations in disease incidence that can be influenced by climate and economic aspects.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify social characteristics and expectations of individuals seen during a community project for the treatment of senile cataracts. Expected results from their eye surgery and its consequences to their quality of life were studied as well. METHODOLOGY: Cataract patients (visual acuity equal to or lower than 0.2 in the more superior eye) aged 50 years or over, were surveyed by means of interviews held during their visit at the Cataract Project in São Paulo city, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1999. RESULTS: The sample was composed of 331 subjects of low socioeconomic level ranging in age from 50 to 97 years (average = 71.8 years). Expectation of total recovery from the cataract condition by means of surgery was declared by 80.0% of the respondents, with no significant differences between male and female subjects (P < 0.1723). Hope to resume manual activities was expressed by 59.8%. CONCLUSION: A predominance of expectations of resuming normal activity and achieving a better quality of life after cataract surgery were identified.
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OBJETIVO: Comparar a ecocardiografia de contraste miocárdico (ECM) usando PESDA e adenosina em bolus (ADN) com a cintilografia miocárdica com radioisótopos (CM) em pacientes (pts) submetidos a investigação e alta probabilidade de doença arterial coronariana. MÉTODOS: Foram estudados 125 pts, 58,4 ± 10,6 anos, 85 homens, com ECM e CM, realizados com intervalo máximo de 4 semanas. ECM foi realizada com PESDA em infusão contínua em repouso e após ADN. As paredes do VE foram divididas em 3 territórios relacionados às artérias coronarianas, totalizando 375 territórios. ECM foi normal quando houve aumento da intensidade do contraste após ADN. Diminuição da intensidade do contraste em repouso ou após ADN foi definida como ECM anormal. CM foi realizada usando protocolos clássicos. Comparados por pacientes, foram considerados concordantes quando ambos exames eram normais ou anormais independente de localização. A comparação por território foi considerada concordante quando havia ou não déficit perfusional num mesmo território. A significância da concordância foi feita pelo teste do qui-quadrado. RESULTADOS: Em 106/125 pts ECM e CM foram concordantes (84,8% - p<0,001). Houve concordância em 342/375 territórios (91,2% - p<0,001). Para o território de DA a concordância foi de 87,2%, para CD 93,6% e para CX 92,8% (p<0,001). CONCLUSÃO: Existe uma ótima concordância entre ECM e CM nos pts em investigação para doença arterial coronariana, podendo a ECM representar uma alternativa à avaliação da perfusão miocárdica.
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OBJETIVO: Investigar o critério ultra-sonográfico de área mínima da luz (AML), com valor de corte igual a 4,0 mm² na tentativa de diferençar as lesões que devem ou não ser tratadas. MÉTODOS: Incluímos 173 pacientes consecutivos com lesões angiograficamente moderadas (porcentual de estenose entre 40 e 70) submetidos à realização de ultra-som, divididos em 2 grupos: grupo 1 clínico (AML > 4,0 mm²) e grupo 2 revascularização (AML < 4,0 mm²), que foram acompanhados para determinar as taxas de eventos cardíacos maiores (ECM) em dois anos, a necessidade de revascularização da lesão-alvo e identificar os preditores clínicos, angiográficos e ultra-sonográficos dos eventos. RESULTADOS: Apresentaram AML > 4,0 mm² 75 (43%) pacientes, mantidos clinicamente e 98 (57%) pacientes AML < 4,0 mm², tratados com stents coronarianos. Pela angiografia coronariana quantitativa não houve diferença significante entre o porcentual de estenose do vaso [grupo 1: 48% vs grupo 2: 53%; p=0,06]. Ao contrário das mensurações ultra-sonográficas, pois a AML mostrou-se significativamente maior no grupo 1 quando comparada ao grupo 2 [4,54 mm² vs 2,45 mm²; p<0,001)]. O impacto clínico da tomada de decisão foi favorável, não verificando-se diferença na ocorrência de eventos cardíacos maiores: [grupo 1: 5 (7%) vs grupo 2: 14 (15%); p= 0,09]. A necessidade de revascularização da lesão-alvo também não diferiu (grupo 1: 3 (4%) vs grupo 2: 11 (12%); p=0,07). As variáveis preditoras para os ECM foram: diabetes, angina CFIII pré-hospitalização e a AML avaliada pelo ultra-som. CONCLUSÃO: A estratégia de decisão de tratamento assegura baixas taxas de ECM em ambos os grupos no seguimento de 24 meses, garantindo reduzidas taxas de revascularização, sendo as variáveis preditoras de eventos cardíacos maiores: diabetes melito, angina classe funcional III e a AML ao ultra-som intracoronariano.
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FUNDAMENTO: O exame da glicose plasmática de jejum (GPJ) é preditor de complicações após Síndrome Coronariana Aguda (SCA). No entanto, seu valor prognóstico ainda não está plenamente estabelecido em diferentes faixas etárias. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o papel da glicose plasmática de jejum (GPJ) como preditor de evolução, 30 dias após a SCA, e comparar a associação da hiperglicemia com eventos cardiovasculares maiores (ECM): óbito, reinfarto e revascularização, em dois diferentes grupos etários (<65 anos e > 65 anos de idade). MÉTODOS: Coorte contemporânea de pacientes hospitalizados por SCA no Instituto de Cardiologia do Rio Grande do Sul (região sul do Brasil). Nas primeiras 24 horas de internação, os pacientes responderam a um questionário com informações clínicas e foram coletadas amostras de sangue periférico para a medição da GPJ. Os pacientes foram acompanhados durante a internação e por 30 dias para verificar a presença de ECM. A análise estatística foi realizada utilizando o SPSS 15.0 com o teste do qui-quadrado ou Exato de Fisher (variáveis categóricas) e o teste t de Student (variáveis numéricas). Análise multivariável foi utilizada para definir preditores independentes. RESULTADOS: 580 pacientes foram incluídos no estudo. A idade média foi 61,2 (± 12,3) anos, com 38,6% dos pacientes (224) com >65 anos de idade, sendo que 67,7% (393) eram do sexo masculino. A análise multivariada mostrou que, após 30 dias de acompanhamento, apenas a GPJ (OR = 1,01, 95% CI: 1,00-1,01, P = 0,001) esteve associada à ECM nas duas faixas etárias. CONCLUSÃO: A GPJ na internação foi preditor independente de ECM na fase precoce da SCA.
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FUNDAMENTO: O teste ergométrico (TE), inicialmente indicado para diagnóstico e estratificação de risco da doença arterial coronariana (DAC), apresenta baixa sensibilidade, o que pode implicar em falha na detecção de pacientes com risco aumentado de eventos adversos. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a ecocardiografia sob estresse físico (EEF) na predição de eventos cardíacos maiores (ECM) e óbitos por todas as causas em pacientes com probabilidade pré-teste intermediária de DAC e TE normal. MÉTODO: Trata-se de estudo retrospectivo em que foram estudados 397 pacientes, com probabilidade pré-teste intermediária de DAC pelo método de Morise e TE normal, submetidos à EEF. Dividiu-se em dois grupos: EEF negativo (G1) ou positivo (G2) para isquemia miocárdica. Os desfechos avaliados foram mortalidade por qualquer causa e ECM, definidos como óbito cardíaco e infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM) não fatal. RESULTADOS: O grupo G1 constituiu-se de 329 (82,8%) pacientes. A idade média foi de 57,37 ± 11 anos e 44,1% eram do gênero masculino. Durante o seguimento médio de 75,94 ± 17,24 meses, ocorreram 13 óbitos, dentre eles três por causas cardíacas (IAM), além de 13 IAM não fatais. Isquemia miocárdica permaneceu como preditor independente de ECM (RR 2,49; [IC] 95% 1,74-3,58). As variáveis preditoras de mortalidade por qualquer causa foram gênero masculino (RR 9,83; [IC] 95% 2,15-44,97) e idade > 60 anos (RR 4,57; [IC] 95% 1,39-15,23). CONCLUSÃO: A EEF positiva é preditora de ECM na amostra estudada, o que auxilia na identificação de um subgrupo de pacientes sob maior risco de eventos adversos, apesar de apresentarem TE normal.
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Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI) have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE) in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2) and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2). Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%), and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024). After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001) in the group with increased LAVI (26%) as compared to the normal LAVI group (7%) [RR (95% CI) = 3.46 (1.54-7.73) vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92)]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012). Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.
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1) It may seem rather strange that, in spite of the efforts of a considerable number of scientists, the problem of the origin of indian corn or maize still has remained an open question. There are no fossil remains or archaeological relics except those which are quite identical with types still existing. (Fig. 1). The main difficulty in finding the wild ancestor- which may still exist - results from the fact that it has been somewhat difficult to decide what it should be like and also where to look for it. 2) There is no need to discuss the literature since an excellent review has recently been published by MANGELSDORF and REEVES (1939). It may be sufficient to state that there are basically two hypotheses, that of ST. HILAIRE (1829) who considered Brazilian pod corn as the nearest relative of wild corn still existing, and that of ASCHERSON (1875) who considered Euchlaena from Central America as the wild ancestor of corn. Later hypotheses represent or variants of these two hypotheses or of other concepts, howewer generally with neither disproving their predecessors nor showing why the new hypotheses were better than the older ones. Since nearly all possible combinations of ideas have thus been put forward, it har- dly seems possible to find something theoretically new, while it is essential first to produce new facts. 3) The studies about the origin of maize received a new impulse from MANGELSDORF and REEVES'S experimental work on both Zea-Tripsacum and Zea-Euchlaena hybrids. Independently I started experiments in 1937 with the hope that new results might be obtained when using South American material. Having lost priority in some respects I decided to withold publication untill now, when I can put forward more concise ideas about the origin of maize, based on a new experimental reconstruction of the "wild type". 4) The two main aspects of MANGELSDORF and REEVES hypothesis are discussed. We agree with the authors that ST. HILAIRE's theory is probably correct in so far as the tunicata gene is a wild type relic gene, but cannot accept the reconstruction of wild corn as a homozygous pod corn with a hermaphroditic tassel. As shown experimentally (Fig. 2-3) these tassels have their central spike transformed into a terminal, many rowed ear with a flexible rachis, while possessing at the same time the lateral ear. Thus no explanation is given of the origin of the corn ear, which is the main feature of cultivated corn (BRIEGER, 1943). The second part of the hypothesis referring to the origin of Euchlaena from corn, inverting thus ASCHERSON's theory, cannot be accepted for several reasons, stated in some detail. The data at hand justify only the conclusion that both genera, Euchlaena and Zea, are related, and there is as little proof for considering the former as ancestor of the latter as there is for the new inverse theory. 5) The analysis of indigenous corn, which will be published in detail by BRIEGER and CUTLER, showed several very primitive characters, but no type was found which was in all characters sufficiently primitive. A genetical analysis of Paulista Pod Corn showed that it contains the same gene as other tunicates, in the IV chromosome, the segregation being complicated by a new gametophyte factor Ga3. The full results of this analysis shall be published elsewhere. (BRIEGER). Selection experiments with Paulista Pod Corn showed that no approximation to a wild ancestor may be obtained when limiting the studies to pure corn. Thus it seemed necessary to substitute "domesticated" by "wild type" modifiers, and the only means for achieving this substitution are hybridizations with Euchlaena. These hybrids have now been analysed init fourth generation, including backcrosses, and, again, the full data will be published elsewhere, by BRIEGER and ADDISON. In one present publication three forms obtained will be described only, which represent an approximation to wild type corn. 6) Before entering howewer into detail, some arguments against ST. HILAIRE's theory must be mentioned. The premendelian argument, referring to the instability of this character, is explained by the fact that all fertile pod corn plants are heterozygous for the dominant Tu factor. But the sterility of the homozygous TuTu, which phenotypically cannot be identified, is still unexplained. The most important argument against the acceptance of the Tunicata faetor as wild type relic gene was removed recently by CUTLER (not yet published) who showed that this type has been preserved for centuries by the Bolivian indians as a mystical "medicine". 7) The main botanical requirements for transforming the corn ear into a wild type structure are stated, and alternative solutions given. One series of these characters are found in Tripsacum and Euchlaena : 2 rows on opposite sides of the rachis, protection of the grains by scales, fragility of the rachis. There remains the other alternative : 4 rows, possibly forming double rows of female and male spikelets, protection of kernels by their glumes, separation of grains at their base from the cob which is thin and flexible. 8) Three successive stages in the reconstruction of wild corn, obtained experimentally, are discussed and illustrated, all characterized by the presence of the Tu gene. a) The structure of the Fl hybrids has already been described in 1943. The main features of the Tunicata hybrids (Fig. -8), when compared with non-tunicate hybrids (Fig. 5-6), consist in the absence of scaly protections, the fragility of the rachis and finally the differentiation of the double rows into one male and one female spikelet. As has been pointed out, these characters represent new phenotypic effects of the tunicate factor which do not appear in the presence of pure maize modifiers. b) The next step was observed among the first backcross to teosinte (Fig. 9). As shown in the photography, Fig. 9D, the features are essencially those of the Fl plants, except that the rachis is more teosinte like, with longer internodes, irregular four-row-arrangement and a complete fragility on the nodes. c) In the next generation a completely new type appeared (Fig. 10) which resembles neither corn nor teosinte, mainly in consequence of one character: the rachis is thin and flexible and not fragile, while the grains have an abscission layer at the base, The medium sized, pointed, brownish and hard granis are protected by their well developed corneous glumes. This last form may not yet be the nearest approach to a wild grass, and I shall try in further experiments to introduce other changes such as an increase of fertile flowers per spikelet, the reduction of difference between terminal and lateral inflorescences, etc.. But the nature of the atavistic reversion is alveadwy such that it alters considerably our expectation when looking for a still existing wild ancestor of corn. 9) The next step in our deductions must now consist in an reversion of our question. We must now explain how we may obtain domesticated corn, starting from a hypothetical wild plant, similar to type c. Of the several changes which must have been necessary to attract the attention of the Indians, the following two seem to me the most important: the disappearance of all abscission layers and the reduction of the glumes. This may have been brought about by an accumulation of mutations. But it seems much more probable to assume that some crossing with a tripsacoid grass or even with Tripsacum australe may have been responsible. In such a cross, the two types of abscission layer would be counterbalanced as shown by the Flhybrids of corn, Tripsacum and Euchlaena. Furthermore in later generations a.tu-allele of Tripsacum may become homozygous and substitute the wild tunicate factor of corn. The hypothesis of a hybrid origin of cultivated corn is not completely new, but has been discussed already by HARSHBERGER and COLLINS. Our hypothesis differs from that of MANGELSDORF and REEVES who assume that crosses with Tripsacum are responsible only for some features of Central and North American corn. 10) The following arguments give indirects evidence in support of our hypothesis: a) Several characters have been observed in indigenous corn from the central region of South America, which may be interpreted as "tripsacoid". b) Equally "zeoid" characters seem to be present in Tripsacum australe of central South-America. c) A system of unbalanced factors, combined by the in-tergeneric cross, may be responsible for the sterility of the wild type tunicata factor when homozygous, a result of the action of modifiers, brought in from Tripsacum together with the tuallele. d) The hybrid theory may explain satisfactorily the presence of so many lethals and semilethals, responsible for the phenomenon of inbreeding in cultivated corn. It must be emphasized that corn does not possess any efficient mechanism to prevent crossing and which could explain the accumulation of these mutants during the evolutionary process. Teosinte which'has about the same mechanism of sexual reproduction has not accumulated such genes, nor self-sterile plants in spite of their pronounced preference for crossing. 11) The second most important step in domestication must have consisted in transforming a four rowed ear into an ear with many rows. The fusion theory, recently revived byLANGHAM is rejected. What happened evidently, just as in succulent pXants (Cactus) or in cones os Gymnosperms, is that there has been a change in phyllotaxy and a symmetry of longitudinal rows superimposed on the original spiral arrangement. 12) The geographical distribution of indigenous corn in South America has been discussed. So far, we may distinguish three zones. The most primitive corn appears in the central lowlands of what I call the Central Triangle of South America: east of the Andies, south of the Amazone-Basin, Northwest of a line formed by the rivers São Prancisco-Paraná and including the Paraguay-Basin. The uniformity of the types found in this extremely large zone is astonishing (BRIEGER and CUTLER). To the west, there is the well known Andian region, characterized by a large number of extremely diverse types from small pop corn to large Cuszco, from soft starch to modified sweet corn, from large cylindrical ears to small round ears, etc.. The third region extends along the atlantic coast in the east, from the Caribean Sea to the Argentine, and is characterized by Cateto, an orange hard flint corn. The Andean types must have been obtained very early, and undoubtedly are the result of the intense Inca agriculture. The Cateto type may be obtained easily by crosses, for instance, of "São Paulo Pointed Pop" to some orange soft corn of the central region. The relation of these three South American zones to Central and North America are not discussed, and it seems essential first to study the intermediate region of Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. The geograprical distribution of chromosome knobs is rapidly discussed; but it seems that no conclusions can be drawn before a large number of Tripsacum species has been analysed.
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The main object of the present paper consists in giving formulas and methods which enable us to determine the minimum number of repetitions or of individuals necessary to garantee some extent the success of an experiment. The theoretical basis of all processes consists essentially in the following. Knowing the frequency of the desired p and of the non desired ovents q we may calculate the frequency of all possi- ble combinations, to be expected in n repetitions, by expanding the binomium (p-+q)n. Determining which of these combinations we want to avoid we calculate their total frequency, selecting the value of the exponent n of the binomium in such a way that this total frequency is equal or smaller than the accepted limit of precision n/pª{ 1/n1 (q/p)n + 1/(n-1)| (q/p)n-1 + 1/ 2!(n-2)| (q/p)n-2 + 1/3(n-3) (q/p)n-3... < Plim - -(1b) There does not exist an absolute limit of precision since its value depends not only upon psychological factors in our judgement, but is at the same sime a function of the number of repetitions For this reasen y have proposed (1,56) two relative values, one equal to 1-5n as the lowest value of probability and the other equal to 1-10n as the highest value of improbability, leaving between them what may be called the "region of doubt However these formulas cannot be applied in our case since this number n is just the unknown quantity. Thus we have to use, instead of the more exact values of these two formulas, the conventional limits of P.lim equal to 0,05 (Precision 5%), equal to 0,01 (Precision 1%, and to 0,001 (Precision P, 1%). The binominal formula as explained above (cf. formula 1, pg. 85), however is of rather limited applicability owing to the excessive calculus necessary, and we have thus to procure approximations as substitutes. We may use, without loss of precision, the following approximations: a) The normal or Gaussean distribution when the expected frequency p has any value between 0,1 and 0,9, and when n is at least superior to ten. b) The Poisson distribution when the expected frequecy p is smaller than 0,1. Tables V to VII show for some special cases that these approximations are very satisfactory. The praticai solution of the following problems, stated in the introduction can now be given: A) What is the minimum number of repititions necessary in order to avoid that any one of a treatments, varieties etc. may be accidentally always the best, on the best and second best, or the first, second, and third best or finally one of the n beat treatments, varieties etc. Using the first term of the binomium, we have the following equation for n: n = log Riim / log (m:) = log Riim / log.m - log a --------------(5) B) What is the minimun number of individuals necessary in 01der that a ceratin type, expected with the frequency p, may appaer at least in one, two, three or a=m+1 individuals. 1) For p between 0,1 and 0,9 and using the Gaussean approximation we have: on - ó. p (1-p) n - a -1.m b= δ. 1-p /p e c = m/p } -------------------(7) n = b + b² + 4 c/ 2 n´ = 1/p n cor = n + n' ---------- (8) We have to use the correction n' when p has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. The greek letters delta represents in the present esse the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution for the three conventional limits of precision : 1,64; 2,33; and 3,09 respectively. h we are only interested in having at least one individual, and m becomes equal to zero, the formula reduces to : c= m/p o para a = 1 a = { b + b²}² = b² = δ2 1- p /p }-----------------(9) n = 1/p n (cor) = n + n´ 2) If p is smaller than 0,1 we may use table 1 in order to find the mean m of a Poisson distribution and determine. n = m: p C) Which is the minimun number of individuals necessary for distinguishing two frequencies p1 and p2? 1) When pl and p2 are values between 0,1 and 0,9 we have: n = { δ p1 ( 1-pi) + p2) / p2 (1 - p2) n= 1/p1-p2 }------------ (13) n (cor) We have again to use the unilateral limits of the Gaussean distribution. The correction n' should be used if at least one of the valors pl or p2 has a value between 0,25 and 0,75. A more complicated formula may be used in cases where whe want to increase the precision : n (p1 - p2) δ { p1 (1- p2 ) / n= m δ = δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p2 ( 1 - p2) c= m / p1 - p2 n = { b2 + 4 4 c }2 }--------- (14) n = 1/ p1 - p2 2) When both pl and p2 are smaller than 0,1 we determine the quocient (pl-r-p2) and procure the corresponding number m2 of a Poisson distribution in table 2. The value n is found by the equation : n = mg /p2 ------------- (15) D) What is the minimun number necessary for distinguishing three or more frequencies, p2 p1 p3. If the frequecies pl p2 p3 are values between 0,1 e 0,9 we have to solve the individual equations and sue the higest value of n thus determined : n 1.2 = {δ p1 (1 - p1) / p1 - p2 }² = Fiim n 1.2 = { δ p1 ( 1 - p1) + p1 ( 1 - p1) }² } -- (16) Delta represents now the bilateral limits of the : Gaussean distrioution : 1,96-2,58-3,29. 2) No table was prepared for the relatively rare cases of a comparison of threes or more frequencies below 0,1 and in such cases extremely high numbers would be required. E) A process is given which serves to solve two problemr of informatory nature : a) if a special type appears in n individuals with a frequency p(obs), what may be the corresponding ideal value of p(esp), or; b) if we study samples of n in diviuals and expect a certain type with a frequency p(esp) what may be the extreme limits of p(obs) in individual farmlies ? I.) If we are dealing with values between 0,1 and 0,9 we may use table 3. To solve the first question we select the respective horizontal line for p(obs) and determine which column corresponds to our value of n and find the respective value of p(esp) by interpolating between columns. In order to solve the second problem we start with the respective column for p(esp) and find the horizontal line for the given value of n either diretly or by approximation and by interpolation. 2) For frequencies smaller than 0,1 we have to use table 4 and transform the fractions p(esp) and p(obs) in numbers of Poisson series by multiplication with n. Tn order to solve the first broblem, we verify in which line the lower Poisson limit is equal to m(obs) and transform the corresponding value of m into frequecy p(esp) by dividing through n. The observed frequency may thus be a chance deviate of any value between 0,0... and the values given by dividing the value of m in the table by n. In the second case we transform first the expectation p(esp) into a value of m and procure in the horizontal line, corresponding to m(esp) the extreme values om m which than must be transformed, by dividing through n into values of p(obs). F) Partial and progressive tests may be recomended in all cases where there is lack of material or where the loss of time is less importent than the cost of large scale experiments since in many cases the minimun number necessary to garantee the results within the limits of precision is rather large. One should not forget that the minimun number really represents at the same time a maximun number, necessary only if one takes into consideration essentially the disfavorable variations, but smaller numbers may frequently already satisfactory results. For instance, by definition, we know that a frequecy of p means that we expect one individual in every total o(f1-p). If there were no chance variations, this number (1- p) will be suficient. and if there were favorable variations a smaller number still may yield one individual of the desired type. r.nus trusting to luck, one may start the experiment with numbers, smaller than the minimun calculated according to the formulas given above, and increase the total untill the desired result is obtained and this may well b ebefore the "minimum number" is reached. Some concrete examples of this partial or progressive procedure are given from our genetical experiments with maize.
Resumo:
The taxonomic composition and diversity of assemblages of Ephemeroptera nymphs of four lotic environments in the central region of State of Rio Grande do Sul, a subtropical area in southern Brazil, were evaluated. Samplings were done monthly, with a Surber sampler, from June 2001 to May 2002, in the Jacuí River and three of its tributaries. The total number of nymphs collected in the four sampling sites was 11,007 in five families and 19 genera, of these, 11 are new records for the State. The highest diversity occurred in Point 4 (H'=2.41) and the lowest in Point 2 (H'=1.69). Point 4 had the highest environmental stability, conservation of the riparian vegetation and the lowest anthropic impact, while Point 2 presented a large environmental simplification due to a direct anthropic influence (e.g. domestic sewerage, trampling by cattle). The diversity of nymphs observed in the total area is high, compared to the estimated maximum theoretical diversity; a result of the high evenness and richness recorded. Rarefaction curves, calculated for a sample of 1,018 specimens, showed a similar expectation of richness for the four sampling sites. This result seems to be associated with the overall environmental homogeneity of the region caused by long-term alterations (land use and deforestation). In summary, higher diversity of Ephemeroptera nymph assemblages seems to be associated with habitat complexity, a good vegetation cover and a lower anthropic influence.