Geographic weighted regression: applicability to epidemiological studies of leprosy

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Geographic information systems (GIS) enable public health data to be analyzed in terms of geographical variability and the relationship between risk factors and diseases. This study discusses the application of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to health data to improve the understanding of spatially varying social and clinical factors that potentially impact leprosy prevalence. METHODS: This ecological study used data from leprosy case records from 1998-2006, aggregated by neighborhood in the Duque de Caxias municipality in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the GWR model, the associations between the log of the leprosy detection rate and social and clinical factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Maps of the estimated coefficients by neighborhood confirmed the heterogeneous spatial relationships between the leprosy detection rates and the predictors. The proportion of households with piped water was associated with higher detection rates, mainly in the northeast of the municipality. Indeterminate forms were strongly associated with higher detections rates in the south, where access to health services was more established. CONCLUSIONS: GWR proved a useful tool for epidemiological analysis of leprosy in a local area, such as Duque de Caxias. Epidemiological analysis using the maps of the GWR model offered the advantage of visualizing the problem in sub-regions and identifying any spatial dependence in the local study area.

Association between LDL-C, Non HDL-C, and Apolipoprotein B Levels with Coronary Plaque Regression

Background:Previous reports have inferred a linear relationship between LDL-C and changes in coronary plaque volume (CPV) measured by intravascular ultrasound. However, these publications included a small number of studies and did not explore other lipid markers.Objective:To assess the association between changes in lipid markers and regression of CPV using published data.Methods:We collected data from the control, placebo and intervention arms in studies that compared the effect of lipidlowering treatments on CPV, and from the placebo and control arms in studies that tested drugs that did not affect lipids. Baseline and final measurements of plaque volume, expressed in mm3, were extracted and the percentage changes after the interventions were calculated. Performing three linear regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between percentage and absolute changes in lipid markers and percentage variations in CPV.Results:Twenty-seven studies were selected. Correlations between percentage changes in LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and percentage changes in CPV were moderate (r = 0.48, r = 0.47, and r = 0.44, respectively). Correlations between absolute differences in LDL-C, non‑HDL-C, and ApoB with percentage differences in CPV were stronger (r = 0.57, r = 0.52, and r = 0.79). The linear regression model showed a statistically significant association between a reduction in lipid markers and regression of plaque volume.Conclusion:A significant association between changes in different atherogenic particles and regression of CPV was observed. The absolute reduction in ApoB showed the strongest correlation with coronary plaque regression.

Morphological aspects of the myocarditis and myositis in Calomys callosus experimentally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi: fibrogenesis and spontaneous regression of fibrosis

Calomys callosus a wild rodent, is a natural host of Trypanosoma cruzi. Twelve C. callosus were infected with 10(5) trypomastigotes of the F strain (a myotropic strain) of T. cruzi. Parasitemia decreased on the 21 st day becoming negative around the 40th day of infection. All animals survived but had positive parasitological tests, until the end of the experiment. The infected animals developed severe inflammation in the myocardium and skeletal muscle. This process was pronounced from the 26 th to the 30th day and gradually subsided from the 50 th day becoming absent or residual on the 64 th day after infection. Collagen was identified by the picro Sirius red method. Fibrogenesis developed early, but regression of fibrosis occurred between the 50th and 64th day. Ultrastructural study disclosed a predominance of macrophages and fibroblasts in the inflammatory infiltrates, with small numbers of lymphocytes. Macrophages had active phagocytosis and showed points of contact with altered muscle cells. Different degrees of matrix expansion were present, with granular and fibrilar deposits and collagen bundles. These alterations subsided by the 64th days. Macrophages seem to be the main immune effector cell in the C. callosus model of infection with T. cruzi. The mechanisms involved in the rapid fibrogenesis and its regression deserve further investigation.

The snail hosts of schistosomiasis: some evolutionary and ecological perspectives in relation to control

Despite opportunities for radiation provided by spatio-temporal isolation, the basic morphological plan of pulmonate snails has remained conservative. In consequence of the resulting dearth of morphological characters and their plasticity, there is a case for using biochemical characters such as exogenous chemicals released by the snails (e.g. amino acids) and their chemoreception niche as taxonomic aids to classify snails of medical importance. As these same chemicals are used by snails to distinguish conspecifics they could also be used as "environmental antibodies" in controlled release formulations (CRF's) designed to remove target snails in a specific, cost-effective and ecologically acceptable manner. The snails, surface-living bacteria, algae and macrophytic plants are considered as co-evolved, interactive modular systems with strong mutualistic elements. Recently, anthropogenic perturbations such as deforestation, and damming of flowing waters, have benefited these modules whereas others such as river canalization, acid deposition, accumulation of pesticide residues and eutrophication have harmed them. Research is needed to elucidate the factors which limit the growth of snails in primitive habitats, uninfluenced by man, as well as in those subject to harmful anthropogenic factors. The understanding thus gained could be applied to develop cost-effective primary health care strategies to reduce or prevent transmission of schistosomiasis and other water related diseases.

Immunological system and Schistosoma mansoni: co-evolutionary immunobiology. What is the eosinophil role in parasite-host relationship?

Schistosomes, ancestors and recent species, have pervaded many hosts and several phylogenetic levels of immunity, causing an evolutionary pressure to eosinophil lineage expression and response. Schistosoma mansoni adult worms have capitalized on the apparent adversity of living within the mesenteric veins, using the dispersion of eggs and antigens to other tissues besides intestines to set a systemic activation of several haematopoietic lineages, specially eosinophils and monocytes/macrophages. This activation occurs in bone marrow, spleen, liver, lymph nodes, omental and mesenteric milky spots (activation of the old or primordial and recent or new lymphomyeloid tissue), increasing and making easy the migration of eosinophils, monocytes and other cells to the intestinal periovular granulomas. The exudative perigranulomatous stage of the periovular reaction, which present hystolitic characteristics, is then exploited by the parasites, to release the eggs into the intestinal lumen. The authors hypothesize here that eosinophils, which have a long phylogenic story, could participate in the parasite - host co-evolution, specially with S. mansoni, operating together with monocytes/ macrophages, upon parasite transmission.

Evolutionary Control of Infectious Disease: Prospects for Vectorborne and Waterborne Pathogens

Evolutionary theory may contribute to practical solutions for control of disease by identifying interventions that may cause pathogens to evolve to reduced virulence. Theory predicts, for example, that pathogens transmitted by water or arthropod vectors should evolve to relatively high levels of virulence because such pathogens can gain the evolutionary benefits of relatively high levels of host exploitation while paying little price from host illness. The entrance of Vibrio cholerae into South America in 1991 has generated a natural experiment that allows testing of this idea by determining whether geographic and temporal variations in toxigenicity correspond to variation in the potential for waterborne transmission. Preliminary studies show such correspondences: toxigenicity is negatively associated with access to uncontaminated water in Brazil; and in Chile, where the potential for waterborne transmission is particularly low, toxigenicity of strains declined between 1991 and 1998. In theory vector-proofing of houses should be similarly associated with benignity of vectorborne pathogens, such as the agents of dengue, malaria, and Chagas' disease. These preliminary studies draw attention to the need for definitive prospective experiments to determine whether interventions such as provisioning of uncontaminated water and vector-proofing of houses cause evolutionary reductions in virulence

Genetic Data Showing Evolutionary Links between Leishmania and Endotrypanum

Striking similarities at the morphological, molecular and biological levels exist between many trypanosomatids isolated from sylvatic insects and/or vertebrate reservoir hosts that make the identification of medically important parasites demanding. Some molecular data have pointed to the relationship between some Leishmania species and Endotrypanum, which has an important epidemiological significance and can be helpful to understand the evolution of those parasites. In this study, we have demonstrated a close genetic relationship between Endotrypanum and two new leishmanial species, L. (V.) colombiensis and L. (V.) equatorensis. We have used (a) numerical zymotaxonomy and (b) the variability of the internal transcribed spacers of the rRNA genes to examine relationships in this group. The evolutionary trees obtained revealed high genetic similarity between L. (V.) colombiensis, L. (V.) equatorensis and Endotrypanum, forming a tight cluster of parasites. Based on further results of (c) minicircle kDNA heterogeneity analysis and (d) measurement of the sialidase activity these parasites were also grouped together.

Genomic rearrangements in trypanosomatids: an alternative to the "one gene" evolutionary hypotheses?

Most molecular trees of trypanosomatids are based on point mutations within DNA sequences. In contrast, there are very few evolutionary studies considering DNA (re) arrangement as genetic characters. Waiting for the completion of the various parasite genome projects, first information may already be obtained from chromosome size-polymorphism, using the appropriate algorithms for data processing. Three illustrative models are presented here. First, the case of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis/L. (V.) peruviana is described. Thanks to a fast evolution rate (due essentially to amplification/deletion of tandemly repeated genes), molecular karyotyping seems particularly appropriate for studying recent evolutionary divergence, including eco-geographical diversification. Secondly, karyotype evolution is considered at the level of whole genus Leishmania. Despite the fast chromosome evolution rate, there is qualitative congruence with MLEE- and RAPD-based evolutionary hypotheses. Significant differences may be observed between major lineages, likely corresponding to major and less frequent rearrangements (fusion/fission, translocation). Thirdly, comparison is made with Trypanosoma cruzi. Again congruence is observed with other hypotheses and major lineages are delineated by significant chromosome rearrangements. The level of karyotype polymorphism within that "species" is similar to the one observed in "genus" Leishmania. The relativity of the species concept among these two groups of parasites is discussed.

Analysis and estimative of schistosomiasis prevalence for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using multiple regression with social and environmental spatial data

The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.