Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Base temperature and simulation model for nodes appearance in cape gooseberry (Physalis peruviana L.)

Data was analyzed on development of the solanaceen fruit crop Cape gooseberry to evaluate how well a classical thermal time model could describe node appearance in different environments. The data used in the analysis were obtained from experiments conducted in Colombia in open fields and greenhouse condition at two locations with different climate. An empirical, non linear segmented model was used to estimate the base temperature and to parameterize the model for simulation of node appearance vs. time. The base temperature (Tb) used to calculate the thermal time (TT, ºCd) for node appearance was estimated to be 6.29 ºC. The slope of the first linear segment was 0.023 nodes per TT and 0.008 for the second linear segment. The time at which the slope of node apperance changed was 1039.5 ºCd after transplanting, determined from a statistical analysis of model for the first segment. When these coefficients were used to predict node appearance at all locations, the model successfully fit the observed data (RSME=2.1), especially for the first segment where node appearance was more homogeneous than the second segment. More nodes were produced by plants grown under greenhouse conditions and minimum and maximum rates of node appearance rates were also higher.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

The attenuation of concentrations model: a new method for assessing mercury mobility in sediments

In this work we propose a new approach for the determination of the mobility of mercury in sediments based on spatial distribution of concentrations. We chose the Tainheiros Cove, located in the Todos os Santos Bay, Brazil, as the study area, for it has a history of mercury contamination due to a chloro-alkali plant that was active during 12 years. Twenty-six surface sediment samples were collected from the area and mercury concentrations were measured by cold vapour atomic absorption spectrophotometry. A contour map was constructed from the results, indicating that mercury accumulated in a "hot spot" where concentrations reach more than 1 µg g-1. The model is able to estimate mobility of mercury in the sediments based on the distances between iso-concentration contours that determines an attenuation of concentrations factor. Values of attenuation ranged between 0.0729 (East of the hot spot, indicating higher mobility) to 0.7727 (North of the hot spot, indicating lower mobility).

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.

Identification of acoustic parameters for broiler welfare estimate

Estimates of broiler welfare have subjective character. Nowadays, researchers seek non-invasive features or indicators that may describe this condition in animal production. The aim of this study was to identify acoustic parameters to estimate broiler welfare using the following five vocalization acoustic parameters: energy, spectral centroid, bandwidth, first formant, and second formant. The database that generated the model was obtained from a field experiment with 432 broilers, which half were Cobb® and half, Ross® breed, from day 21 to 42, containing bird vocalizations under either welfare or stress conditions. The results of the experiment generated responses to the tested conditions of gender, genetic strain, and welfare. The proposed model was based on the specific response of mean weights for each situation of stress and well-being. From the results, a model was developed to estimate the welfare condition of broilers from the registered information linked to their vocalization.

IDENTIFICATION OF SUITABLE AREAS FOR IRRIGATED RICE CROPPING USING MODIS IMAGES AND HAND MODEL

ABSTRACT One of the most relevant activities of Brazilian economy is agriculture. Among the main crops in Brazil, rice is one of high relevance. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, in Southern Brazil, is responsible for 68.7% of domestic production (IBGE, 2013). The goal of this study was to develop a low-cost methodology with a regional scope to identify suitable areas for irrigated rice cropping in this state, using spectro-temporal behavior of vegetation index by means of MODIS images and HAND model. The rice-cropped area of this study was the southern half of the State. Using the HAND model, flood areas were mapped to identify irrigated rice cultivation. We used multi-temporal images of vegetation index from MODIS sensor, covering the period from August 2001 to May 2012. To assess the results, we used data collected in the fields and cropped area information from IBGE. The results showed that the proposed methodology was satisfactory, with Kappa 0.92 and global accuracy of 98.18%. As result, MODIS sensor data and flood areas delineation by means of HAND model generated the estimate irrigated rice area for the area of study.

A New Model to Determine the Dispersion of Fatigue Damage Evaluations

Reliable predictions of remaining lives of civil or mechanical structures subjected to fatigue damage are very difficult to be made. In general, fatigue damage is extremely sensitive to the random variations of material mechanical properties, environment and loading. These variations may induce large dispersions when the structural fatigue life has to be predicted. Wirsching (1970) mentions dispersions of the order of 30 to 70 % of the mean calculated life. The presented paper introduces a model to estimate the fatigue damage dispersion based on known statistical distributions of the fatigue parameters (material properties and loading). The model is developed by expanding into Taylor series the set of equations that describe fatigue damage for crack initiation.

A simple model for the estimation of congenital malformation frequency in racially mixed populations

A simple model is proposed, using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate malformation frequencies in racial groups based on data obtained from hospital services. This model uses the proportions of racial admixture, and the observed malformation frequency. It was applied to two defects: postaxial polydactyly and cleft lip, the frequencies of which are recognizedly heterogeneous among racial groups. The frequencies estimated in each racial group were those expected for these malformations, which proves the applicability of the method.

Paraquat poisoning: an experimental model of dose-dependent acute lung injury due to surfactant dysfunction

Since the most characteristic feature of paraquat poisoning is lung damage, a prospective controlled study was performed on excised rat lungs in order to estimate the intensity of lesion after different doses. Twenty-five male, 2-3-month-old non-SPF Wistar rats, divided into 5 groups, received paraquat dichloride in a single intraperitoneal injection (0, 1, 5, 25, or 50 mg/kg body weight) 24 h before the experiment. Static pressure-volume (PV) curves were performed in air- and saline-filled lungs; an estimator of surface tension and tissue works was computed by integrating the area of both curves and reported as work/ml of volume displacement. Paraquat induced a dose-dependent increase of inspiratory surface tension work that reached a significant two-fold order of magnitude for 25 and 50 mg/kg body weight (P<0.05, ANOVA), sparing lung tissue. This kind of lesion was probably due to functional abnormalities of the surfactant system, as was shown by the increase in the hysteresis of the paraquat groups at the highest doses. Hence, paraquat poisoning provides a suitable model of acute lung injury with alveolar instability that can be easily used in experimental protocols of mechanical ventilation

McFarland nephelometer as a simple method to estimate the sensitivity of the polymerase chain reaction using Mycobacterium tuberculosis as a research tool

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been widely investigated for the diagnosis of tuberculosis. However, before this technique is applied on clinical samples, it needs to be well standardized. We describe the use of McFarland nephelometer, a very simple approach to determine microorganism concentration in solution, for PCR standardization and DNA quantitation, using Mycobacterium tuberculosis as a model. Tuberculosis is an extremely important disease for the public health system in developing countries and, with the advent of AIDS, it has also become an important public health problem in developed countries. Using Mycobacterium tuberculosis as a research model, we were able to detect 3 M. tuberculosis genomes using the McFarland nephelometer to assess micobacterial concentration. We have shown here that McFarland nephelometer is an easy and reliable procedure to determine PCR sensitivity at lower costs.

Comparison of the homeostasis model assessment and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index with data from forearm metabolic studies for the in vivo assessment of insulin sensitivity

The present study was designed to compare the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) with data from forearm metabolic studies of healthy individuals and of subjects in various pathological states. Fifty-five healthy individuals and 112 patients in various pathological states, including type 2 diabetes mellitus, essential hypertension and others, were studied after an overnight fast and for 3 h after ingestion of 75 g of glucose, by HOMA, QUICKI and the forearm technique to estimate muscle uptake of glucose combined with indirect calorimetry (oxidative and non-oxidative glucose metabolism). The patients showed increased HOMA (1.88 ± 0.14 vs 1.13 ± 0.10 pmol/l x mmol/l) and insulin/glucose (I/G) index (1.058.9 ± 340.9 vs 518.6 ± 70.7 pmol/l x (mg/100 ml forearm)-1), and decreased QUICKI (0.36 ± 0.004 vs 0.39 ± 0.006 (µU/ml + mg/dl)-1) compared with the healthy individuals. Analysis of the data for the group as a whole (patients and healthy individuals) showed that the estimate of insulin resistance by HOMA was correlated with data obtained in the forearm metabolic studies (glucose uptake: r = -0.16, P = 0.04; non-oxidative glucose metabolism: r = -0.20. P = 0.01, and I/G index: r = 0.17, P = 0.03). The comparison of QUICKI with data of the forearm metabolic studies showed significant correlation between QUICKI and non-oxidative glucose metabolism (r = 0.17, P = 0.03) or I/G index (r = -0.37, P < 0.0001). The HOMA and QUICKI are good estimates of insulin sensitivity as data derived from forearm metabolic studies involving direct measurements of insulin action on muscle glucose metabolism.

Estimate of respiration rate and physicochemical changes of fresh-cut apples stored under different temperatures

In this study, the influence of storage temperature and passive modified packaging (PMP) on the respiration rate and physicochemical properties of fresh-cut Gala apples (Malus domestica B.) was investigated. The samples were packed in flexible multilayer bags and stored at 2 °C, 5 °C, and 7 °C for eleven days. Respiration rate as a function of CO2 and O2 concentrations was determined using gas chromatography. The inhibition parameters were estimated using a mathematical model based on Michaelis-Menten equation. The following physicochemical properties were evaluated: total soluble solids, pH, titratable acidity, and reducing sugars. At 2 °C, the maximum respiration rate was observed after 150 hours. At 5 °C and 7 °C the maximum respiration rates were observed after 100 and 50 hours of storage, respectively. The inhibition model results obtained showed a clear effect of CO2 on O2 consumption. The soluble solids decreased, although not significantly, during storage at the three temperatures studied. Reducing sugars and titratable acidity decreased during storage and the pH increased. These results indicate that the respiration rate influenced the physicochemical properties.