41 resultados para Errors in variables models
Resumo:
The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.
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The relationship between anxiety-related behaviors and voluntary ethanol intake was examined in two pairs of rat lines by the oral ethanol self-administration procedure. Floripa high (H) and low (L) rats selectively bred for contrasting anxiety responses in the open-field test, and two inbred strains, spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) and Lewis rats which are known to differ significantly when submitted to several behavioral tests of anxiety/emotionality, were used (9-10 animals/line/sex). No differences in the choice of ethanol solutions (2%, days 1-4, and 4%, days 5-8, respectively) in a 2-bottle paradigm were detected between Floripa H and L rats (1.94 ± 0.37 vs 1.61 ± 0.37 g/kg for ethanol intake on day 8 by the Floripa H and L rat lines, respectively). Contrary to expectations, the less anxious SHR rats consumed significantly more ethanol than Lewis rats (respective intake of 2.30 ± 0.45 and 0.72 ± 0.33 g/kg on day 8) which are known to be both addiction-prone and highly anxious. Regardless of strain, female rats consumed more ethanol than males (approximately 46%). The results showed no relationship between high anxiety and voluntary intake of ethanol for Floripa H and L rats. A negative association between these two variables, however, was found for SHR and Lewis rat strains. Data from the literature regarding the association between anxiety and alcohol intake in animal models are not conclusive, but the present results indicate that factors other than increased inborn anxiety probably lead to the individual differences in ethanol drinking behavior.
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Phytotherapies have offered alternative sources of therapy for migraine and gained much importance in prophylactic treatment. Sapindus trifoliatus is a medium-sized deciduous tree growing wild in south India that belongs to the family Sapindaceae. The pericarp is reported for various medicinal properties. A thick aqueous solution of the pericarp is used for the treatment of hemicrania, hysteria or epilepsy in folklore medicine. We have investigated the antihyperalgesic effects of the lyophilized aqueous extract of S. trifoliatus in animal models predictive of experimental migraine models using morphine withdrawal-induced hyperalgesia on the hot-plate test and on 0.3% acetic acid-induced abdominal constrictions in adult male Swiss albino mice. The extract significantly (N = 10, P < 0.05) increased the licking latency in the hot-plate test when administered ip at 10 mg/kg (6.70 ± 0.39 s in saline control vs 18.76 ± 0.96 s in S. trifoliatus-treated animals) and significantly (N = 10, P < 0.001) reduced the abdominal constrictions when administered ip at 2 and 10 mg/kg (40.20 ± 1.36 in saline control vs 30.20 ± 1.33 and 23.00 ± 0.98 for 2 and 10 mg/kg, ip, respectively, in S. trifoliatus-treated animals). Furthermore, when administered ip at 20 and 100 mg/kg, the extract significantly (N = 10, P < 0.05) inhibited the apomorphine-induced climbing behavior in mice (climbing duration 15.75 ± 5.0 min for saline control vs 11.4 ± 1.28 and 3.9 ± 1.71 min for 20 and 100 mg/kg, respectively, in S. trifoliatus-treated animals). In receptor radioligand-binding studies, the extract exhibited affinity towards D2 receptors. The findings suggest that dopamine D2 antagonism could be the mechanism involved in the antihyperalgesic activity of the aqueous extract of S. trifoliatus.
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Dilated cardiomyopathy can be the end-stage form and common denominator of several cardiac disorders of known cause, such as hypertensive, ischemic, diabetic and Chagasic diseases. However, some individuals have clinical findings, such as an increase in ventricular chamber size and impaired contractility (classical manifestations of dilated cardiomyopathy) even in the absence of a diagnosed primary disease. In these patients, dilated cardiomyopathy is classified as idiopathic since its etiology is obscure. Nevertheless, regardless of all of the advances in medical, pharmacological and surgical procedures, the fate of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (of idiopathic or of any other known cause) is linked to arrhythmic episodes, severe congestive heart failure and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. In this review, we will summarize present data on the use of cell therapies in animal models of dilated cardiomyopathies and will discuss the few clinical trials that have been published so far involving patients affected by this disease. The animal models discussed here include those in which the cardiomyopathy is produced by genetic manipulation and those in which disease is induced by chemical or infectious agents. The specific model used clearly creates restrictions to translation of the proposed cell therapy to clinical practice, insofar as most of the clinical trials performed to date with cell therapy have used autologous cells. Thus, translation of genetic models of dilated cardiomyopathy may have to wait until the use of allogeneic cells becomes more widespread in clinical trials of cell therapies for cardiac diseases.
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The freezing times of fruit pulp models packed and conditioned in multi-layered boxes were evaluated under conditions similar to those employed commercially. Estimating the freezing time is a difficult practice due to the presence of significant voids in the boxes, whose influence may be analyzed by means of various methods. In this study, a procedure for estimating freezing time by using the models described in the literature was compared with experimental measurements by collecting time/temperature data. The following results show that the airflow through packages is a significant parameter for freezing time estimation. When the presence of preferential channels was considered, the predicted freezing time in the models could be 10% lower than the experimental values, depending on the method. The isotherms traced as a function of the location of the samples inside the boxes showed the displacement of the thermal center in relation to the geometric center of the product.
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The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.
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Human Bartonellosis has an acute phase characterized by fever and hemolytic anemia, and a chronic phase with bacillary angiomatosis-like lesions. This cross-sectional pilot study evaluated the immunology patterns using pre- and post-treatment samples in patients with Human Bartonellosis. Patients between five and 60 years of age, from endemic areas in Peru, in the acute or chronic phases were included. In patients in the acute phase of Bartonellosis a state of immune peripheral tolerance should be established for persistence of the infection. Our findings were that elevation of the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 and numeric abnormalities of CD4+ and CD8+ T-Lymphocyte counts correlated significantly with an unfavorable immune state. During the chronic phase, the elevated levels of IFN-γ and IL-4 observed in our series correlated with previous findings of endothelial invasion of B. henselae in animal models.
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Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the frequency of medical care preceding deaths due to coronary artery diseases (CAD) in different Brazilian regions and capitals and to describe trends in medical care from 1980 to 1999. METHODS: Information on medical care preceding deaths due to coronary artery diseases/acute myocardial infarction in adults > 20 years from 1980 to 1999 was collected in the DATASUS, the databank of the Brazilian Health Ministry. Sex, states, and capitals selected for 1999 were analyzed in the study. Medical care was stratified as follows: with, without, and ignored medical care. The descriptive analysis comprised frequencies, ratios of frequency, test for proportions, and increments or reductions in frequencies. RESULTS: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) represented 75 to 85% of the CAD in the period; the frequency of deaths with medical care ranged from 48.9 to 63%, and that of ignored medical care ranged from 27.2 to 41.5%. The frequency of other CAD with medical care ranged from 56 to 76%. The frequency of deaths preceded by medical care decreased by 17.8%, and that with ignored medical care increased by 36.5% (RF=2). The values for the other CAD were -20.2% and +64.6% (RF=44.4). Deaths preceded by medical care were more frequent in females at all ages and in all Brazilian regions. CONCLUSION: The results show a high frequency of sudden death and suggest errors in diagnosis or codification and overestimation of the statistics about mortality. Validation of the death certificate diagnosis and frequent surveillance are required.
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Background:Cardiovascular diseases affect people worldwide. Individuals with Down Syndrome (DS) have an up to sixteen-time greater risk of mortality from cardiovascular diseases.Objective:To evaluate the effects of aerobic and resistance exercises on blood pressure and hemodynamic variables of young individuals with DS.Methods:A total of 29 young individuals with DS participated in the study. They were divided into two groups: aerobic training (AT) (n = 14), and resistance training (TR) (n = 15). Their mean age was 15.7 ± 2.82 years. The training program lasted 12 weeks, and had a frequency of three times a week for AT and twice a week for RT. AT was performed in treadmill/ bicycle ergometer, at an intensity between 50%-70% of the HR reserve. RT comprised nine exercises with three sets of 12 repetition-maximum. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean blood pressure (MBP) and hemodynamic variables were assessed beat-to-beat using the Finometer device before/after the training program. Descriptive analysis, the Shapiro-Wilk test to check the normality of data, and the two-way ANOVA for repeated measures were used to compare pre- and post-training variables. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated to correlate hemodynamic variables. The SPSS version 18.0 was used with the significance level set at p < 0.05.Results:After twelve weeks of aerobic and/or resistance training, significant reductions in variables SBP, DBP and MBP were observed.Conclusion:This study suggests a chronic hypotensive effect of moderate aerobic and resistance exercises on young individuals with DS.
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AbstractBackground:The prevalence and clinical outcomes of heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction after acute myocardial infarction have not been well elucidated.Objective:To analyze the prevalence of heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in acute myocardial infarction and its association with mortality.Methods:Patients with acute myocardial infarction (n = 1,474) were prospectively included. Patients without heart failure (Killip score = 1), with heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (Killip score > 1 and left ventricle ejection fraction ≥ 50%), and with systolic dysfunction (Killip score > 1 and left ventricle ejection fraction < 50%) on admission were compared. The association between systolic dysfunction with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction and in-hospital mortality was tested in adjusted models.Results:Among the patients included, 1,256 (85.2%) were admitted without heart failure (72% men, 67 ± 15 years), 78 (5.3%) with heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (59% men, 76 ± 14 years), and 140 (9.5%) with systolic dysfunction (69% men, 76 ± 14 years), with mortality rates of 4.3%, 17.9%, and 27.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Logistic regression (adjusted for sex, age, troponin, diabetes, and body mass index) demonstrated that heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 2.91; 95% CI 1.35–6.27; p = 0.006) and systolic dysfunction (OR 5.38; 95% CI 3.10 to 9.32; p < 0.001) were associated with in-hospital mortality.Conclusion:One-third of patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted with heart failure had preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Although this subgroup exhibited more favorable outcomes than those with systolic dysfunction, this condition presented a three-fold higher risk of death than the group without heart failure. Patients with acute myocardial infarction and heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction encounter elevated short-term risk and require special attention and monitoring during hospitalization.
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AbstractBackground:Although nutritional, metabolic and cardiovascular abnormalities are commonly seen in experimental studies of obesity, it is uncertain whether these effects result from the treatment or from body adiposity.Objective:To evaluate the influence of treatment and body composition on metabolic and cardiovascular aspects in rats receiving high saturated fat diet.Methods:Sixteen Wistar rats were used, distributed into two groups, the control (C) group, treated with isocaloric diet (2.93 kcal/g) and an obese (OB) group, treated with high-fat diet (3.64 kcal/g). The study period was 20 weeks. Analyses of nutritional behavior, body composition, glycemia, cholesterolemia, lipemia, systolic arterial pressure, echocardiography, and cardiac histology were performed.Results:High-fat diet associates with manifestations of obesity, accompanied by changes in glycemia, cardiomyocyte hypertrophy, and myocardial interstitial fibrosis. After adjusting for adiposity, the metabolic effects were normalized, whereas differences in morphometric changes between groups were maintained.Conclusion:It was concluded that adiposity body composition has a stronger association with metabolic disturbances in obese rodents, whereas the high-fat dietary intervention is found to be more related to cardiac morphological changes in experimental models of diet-induced obesity.
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In recent years, one of the most significant progress in the understanding of liver diseases was the demonstration that liver fibrosis is a dynamic process resulting from a balance between synthesis and degradation of several matrix components, collagen in particular. Thus, fibrosis has been found to be a very early event during liver diseases, be it of toxic, viral or parasitic origin, and to be spontaneously reversible, either partially or totally. In liver fibrosis cell matrix interactions are dependent on the existence of the many factors (sometimes acting in combination) which produce the same events at the cellular and molecular levels. These events are: (i) the recruitment of fiber-producing cells, (ii) their proliferation, (iii) the secretion of matrix constituents of the extracellular matrix, and (iv) the remodeling and degradation of the newly formed matrix. All these events represent, at least in principle, a target for a therapeutic intervention aimed at influencing the experimentally induced hepatic fibrosis. In this context, hepatosplenic schistosomiasis is of particular interest, being an immune cell-mediated granulomatous disease and a model of liver fibrosis allowing extensive studies in human and animals as well as providing original in vitro models.
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The mucosa associated lymphoid tissue regulates and coordinates immune responses against mucosal pathogens. Mucosal tissues are the major targets exposed to HIV during transmission. In this paper we describe in vitro models of HIV mucosal infection using human explants to investigate target cells within this tissue.