Brazil is getting older: demographic changes and epidemiological challenges

Population ageing is currently a phenomenon not only in developed countries but also in third world countries. In this paper the features of a population's ageing and the process of epidemiological transition are discussed along with the worldwide changes in age-structure. Population statistics in Brazil and the characteristics of the elderly population are presented and analysed in the light of recent changes. The Brazilian elderly population is also discussed, particularly the issues relating to the social cost of the aged population, its urban and rural distribution, the elderly by sex, marital status and level of schooling, and emphasis is given to the imbalance of the sexes and the consequences of it for women.

Health financing changes in the context of health care decentralization: the case of three Latin American countries

OBJECTIVE: The results of an evaluative longitudinal study, which identified the effects of health care decentralization on health financing in Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru are presented in this article. METHODS: The methodology had two main phases. In the first, secondary sources of data and documents were analyzed with the following variables: type of decentralization implemented, source of financing, funds for financing, providers, final use of resources, mechanisms for resource allocation. In the second phase, primary data were collected by a survey of key personnel in the health sector. RESULTS: Results of the comparative analysis are presented, showing the changes implemented in the three countries, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each country in matters of financing and decentralization. CONCLUSIONS: The main financing changes implemented and quantitative trends with respect to the five financing indicators are presented as a methodological tool to implement corrections and adjustments in health financing.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. METHODS: A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (>150mg/dL), LDL-C (>100mg/dL), serum triglycerides (>100mg/dL), plasma glucose (>100mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (< 45mg/dL). Four references were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity of BMI cut-offs: one Brazilian, one international and two American. RESULTS: The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m² to 21.0 kg/m²) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. CONCLUSIONS: Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.

Metabolic changes associated with antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive patients

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate metabolic changes associated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-positive patients, and to identify risk factors associated. METHODS: Retrospective study that included 110 HIV-positive patients who where on HAART in the city of Porto Alegre (Southern Brazil) between January 2003 and March 2004. Data on demographic variables, cigarette smoking, diabetes mellitus, cholesterol and triglyceride levels, stage of HIV infection, antiretroviral therapy and HCV coinfection were collected. General linear models procedure for repeated measures was used to test the interaction between HAART and HCV coinfection or protease inhibitor treatment. RESULTS: Total cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose levels significantly increased after receiving HAART (p<0.001 for all variables), but no interaction with protease inhibitors was seen for total cholesterol, glucose and triglyceride levels (interaction treatment*protease inhibitors p=0.741, p=0.784, and p=0.081, respectively). An association between total cholesterol levels and HCV coinfection was found both at baseline and follow-up (effect of HCV coinfection, p=0.011). Glucose levels were increased by HAART (treatment effect, p=0.036), but the effect was associated to HCV coinfection (treatment*HCV effect, p=0.018). Gender, smoking habit, intravenous drug use and age were not significantly associated with cholesterol, triglyceride and glucose changes. CONCLUSIONS: HCV-infected patients at baseline were significantly less likely to develop hypercholesterolemia. The results provide further evidence of the role of HAART for the development of metabolic disturbances.