Designing a vaccination strategy against dengue

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Occurrence of severe dengue in Rio de Janeiro: an ecological study

Introduction This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the incidence of severe dengue during the 2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and socioeconomic indicators, as well as indicators of health service availability and previous circulation of the dengue virus serotype-3 (DENV-3). Methods In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the districts of Rio de Janeiro. The data were incorporated into generalized linear models, and the incidence of severe dengue in each district was the outcome variable. Results The districts with more cases of dengue fever in the 2001 epidemic and a higher percentage of residents who declared their skin color or race as black had higher incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic [incidence rate ratio (IRR)= 1.21; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)= 1.05-1.40 and IRR= 1.34; 95%CI= 1.16-1.54, respectively]. In contrast, the districts with Family Health Strategy (FHS) clinics were more likely to have lower incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic (IRR= 0.81; 95%CI= 0.70-0.93). Conclusions At the ecological level, our findings suggest the persistence of health inequalities in this region of Brazil that are possibly due to greater social vulnerability among the self-declared black population. Additionally, the protective effect of FHS clinics may be due to the ease of access to other levels of care in the health system or to a reduced vulnerability to dengue transmission that is afforded by local practices to promote health.

GEOCHEMISTRY AND GEOCHRONOLOGY OF SURFICIAL ACRE BASIN SEDIMENTS (WESTERN AMAZONIA): KEY INFORMATION FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION.

Geochemical and geochronological analyses of samples of surficial Acre Basin sediments and fossils indicate an extensive fluvial-lacustrine system, occupying this region, desiccated slowly during the last glacial cycle (LGC). This research documents direct evidence for aridity in western Amazonia during the LGC and is important in establishing boundary conditions for LGC climate models as well as in correlating marine and continental (LGC) climate conditions.

Can climate shape flight activity patterns of Plebeia remota Hymenoptera, Apidae)?

Flight activity of foragers of four colonies of Plebeia remota (Holmberg, 1903) was registered from December 1998 to December 1999, using an automated system (photocells and PLC system). The colonies originated from two different regions: Cunha, state of São Paulo, and Prudentópolis, state of Paraná, Brazil. Flight activity was influenced by different climatic factors in each season. In the summer, the intensity of the correlations between flight activity and climatic factors was smaller than in the other seasons. During the autumn and winter, solar radiation was the factor that most influenced flight activity, while in the spring, this activity was influenced mainly by temperature. Except in the summer, the various climatic factors similarly influenced flight activity of all of the colonies. Flight activity was not affected by geographic origin of the colonies. Information concerning seasonal differences in flight activity of P. remota will be useful for prediction of geographic distribution scenarios under climatic changes.

Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, and dengue in Argentina: current knowledge and future directions

Since the reinfestation of South American countries by Ae. aegypti, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have become a major public health concern. The aim of this paper was to review the information related with Aedes vectors and dengue in Argentina since the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti in 1986. The geographic distribution of Ae. albopictus is restricted to the Northeast, and that of Ae. aegypti has expanded towards the South and the West in comparison with the records during the eradication campaign in the 1960s. Since 1998, 4,718 DF cases have been reported concentrated in the provinces of Salta, Formosa, Misiones, Jujuy and Corrientes. Despite the circulation of three dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1, -2 and -3) in the North of the country, DHF has not occurred until the present. The information published over the last two decades regarding mosquito abundance, temporal variations, habitat characteristics, competition, and chemical and biological control, was reviewed. Considering the available information, issues pending in Argentina are discussed. The presence of three DENV, the potential spread of Ae. albopictus, and the predicted climate change suggest that dengue situation will get worse in the region. Research efforts should be increased in the Northern provinces, where DHF is currently an actual risk.

Seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the northernmost state of Brazil: a likely port-of-entry for dengue virus 4

Roraima is the northernmost state of Brazil, bordering both Venezuela and Guyana. Appropriate climate and vector conditions for dengue transmission together with its proximity to countries where all four dengue serotypes circulate make this state, particularly the capital Boa Vista, strategically important for dengue surveillance in Brazil. Nonetheless, few studies have addressed the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Boa Vista. In this study, we report temporal and spatial variations in Ae. aegypti population density using ovitraps in two highly populated neighbourhoods; Centro and Tancredo Neves. In three out of six surveys, Ae. aegypti was present in more than 80% of the sites visited. High presence levels of this mosquito suggest ubiquitous human exposure to the vector, at least during part of the year. The highest infestation rates occurred during the peak of the rainy seasons, but a large presence was also observed during the early dry season (although with more variation among years). Spatial distribution of positive houses changed from a sparse and local pattern to a very dense pattern during the dry-wet season transition. These results suggest that the risk of dengue transmission and the potential for the new serotype invasions are high for most of the year.

Container productivity, daily survival rates and dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in a high income dengue epidemic neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro: presumed influence of differential urban structure on mosquito biology

Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.

The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city

Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.

Detection of all four dengue serotypes in Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes collected in a rural area in Colombia

The Aedes aegypti vector for dengue virus (DENV) has been reported in urban and periurban areas. The information about DENV circulation in mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas is limited, so we aimed to evaluate the presence of DENV in Ae. aegypti females caught in rural locations of two Colombian municipalities, Anapoima and La Mesa. Mosquitoes from 497 rural households in 44 different rural settlements were collected. Pools of about 20 Ae. aegypti females were processed for DENV serotype detection. DENV in mosquitoes was detected in 74% of the analysed settlements with a pool positivity rate of 62%. The estimated individual mosquito infection rate was 4.12% and the minimum infection rate was 33.3/1,000 mosquitoes. All four serotypes were detected; the most frequent being DENV-2 (50%) and DENV-1 (35%). Two-three serotypes were detected simultaneously in separate pools. This is the first report on the co-occurrence of natural DENV infection of mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas. The findings are important for understanding dengue transmission and planning control strategies. A potential latent virus reservoir in rural areas could spill over to urban areas during population movements. Detecting DENV in wild-caught adult mosquitoes should be included in the development of dengue epidemic forecasting models.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY OF NUTRIENT LOSS BY EROSION IN SUGARCANE HARVESTING SCENARIOS

The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg) by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS). A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points) was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD) was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, p<0.05). In both scenarios, nutrient loss followed the order: Ca>Mg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.

Impact of elevated temperature scenarios on potato leaf development

The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of elevated temperature scenarios on leaf development of potato in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Leaf appearance was estimated using a multiplicative model that has a non-linear temperature response function which calculates the daily leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day-1) and the accumulated number of leaves (LN) from crop emergence to the appearance of the upper last leaf. Leaf appearance was estimated during 100 years in the following scenarios: current climate, +1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C e +5 °C. The LAR model was estimated with coefficients of the Asterix cultivar in five emergence dates and in two growing seasons (Fall and Spring). Variable of interest was the duration (days) of the crop emergence to the appearance of the final leaf number (EM-FLN) phase. Statistical analysis was performed assuming a three-factorial experiment, with main effects being climate scenarios, growing seasons, and emergence dates in a completely randomized design using years (one hundred) as replications. The results showed that warmer scenarios lead to an increase, in the fall, and a decrease, in the spring growing season, in the duration of the leaf appearance phase, indicating high vulnerability and complexity of the response of potato crop grown in a Subtropical environment to climate change.