22 resultados para Bayesian


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Nucleotide sequences of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) rDNA and partial sequences of the cytochrome coxidase subunit I (COI) mtDNA and white gene nDNA were obtained from specimens of Anopheles nuneztovari A collected in Macapá (state of Amapá), Óbidos, Prainha and Almeirim (state of Pará), Itacoatiara and Parintins (state of Amazonas), Brazil, and compared with previously published sequences of A. nuneztovari s.l. Results of the Bayesian phylogenetic analyses performed using either COI or combined ITS2, COI and white gene sequences suggest that An. nuneztovari B/C is distinct from specimens obtained in the Amazonas/Solimões River basin. Anopheles goeldii, currently in synonymy with An. nuneztovari, was described from individuals collected in Belterra (= Fordlândia) in the Tapajós River, state of Pará, Southern Amazonas River. Morphological comparisons of the characteristics of the male genitalia indicated that An. nuneztovari A and An. goeldii are similar but distinct from An. nuneztovariB/C by the apex of the aedeagus. In considering the results of the phylogenetic analyses and morphological comparisons, An. goeldii is resurrected from synonymy with An. nuneztovari. Additionally, Anopheles dunhamiis reported for the first time in Parintins. This species can be distinguished from An. goeldiiby characters of the male genitalia and molecular data.

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The hepatitis B virus (HBV) is among the leading causes of chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. In Brazil, genotype A is the most frequent, followed by genotypes D and F. Genotypes B and C are found in Brazil exclusively among Asian patients and their descendants. The aim of this study was to sequence the entire HBV genome of a Caucasian patient infected with HBV/C2 and to infer the origin of the virus based on sequencing analysis. The sequence of this Brazilian isolate was grouped with four other sequences described in China. The sequence of this patient is the first complete genome of HBV/C2 reported in Brazil.

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Phylogenetic relationships among species of the Myzorhynchella Section of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) were investigated using the nuclear ribosomal DNA second internal transcribed spacer (ITS2), the nuclear whitegene and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) regions. The recently described Anopheles pristinus and resurrected Anopheles guarani were also included in the study. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses found Anopheles parvus to be the most distantly related species within the Section, a finding that is consistent with morphology. An. pristinus and An. guarani were clearly resolved from Anopheles antunesi and Anopheles lutzii, respectively. An. lutzii collected in the same mountain range as the type locality were found within a strongly supported clade, whereas individuals from the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, tentatively identified as An. lutzii based on adult female external morphology, were distinct from An. lutzii, An. antunesi and from each other, and may therefore represent two new sympatric species. A more detailed examination of An. lutzii sensu latoalong its known geographic range is recommended to resolve these anomalous relationships.

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Leishmania infantum (syn. Leishmania chagasi) is the etiological agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil. The epidemiology of VL is poorly understood. Therefore, a more detailed molecular characterization at an intraspecific level is certainly needed. Herein, three independent molecular methods, multilocus microsatellite typing (MLMT), random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and simple sequence repeats-polymerase chain reaction (SSR-PCR), were used to evaluate the genetic diversity of 53 L. infantum isolates from five different endemic areas in Brazil. Population structures were inferred by distance-based and Bayesian-based approaches. Eighteen very similar genotypes were detected by MLMT, most of them differed in only one locus and no correlation was found between MLMT profiles, geographical origin or the estimated population structure. However, complex profiles composed of 182 bands obtained by both RAPD and SSR-PCR assays gave different results. Unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean trees built from these data revealed a high degree of homogeneity within isolates of L. infantum. Interestingly, despite this genetic homogeneity, most of the isolates clustered according to their geographical origin.

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Despite the effectiveness of current hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccines, it is estimated that 350 million individuals suffer from chronic HBV infection and more than 50% of these affected individuals live on the Asian continent. Panama is a country with a great diversity of foreign groups; the Chinese community is a large example of this phenomenon. There is an urgent need to perform studies that evaluate the prevalence and the genetic diversity of HBV in this community. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of HBV and its genotypes and mutant variants in the Chinese population residing in Panama. In total, 320 subjects were enrolled in the study. Forty-two subjects (13.1%) were positive for HBsAg and HBV-DNA from 18 subjects revealed the presence of genotypes B2 and C1. Secondary mutations associated with drug resistance at positions rtV207L and rtN239T of the reverse transcriptase gene were identified. Additionally, the mutation pair A1762T/G1764A was found in three samples and the mutation G1896A was detected in an HBeAg-negative subject. In conclusion, to our knowledge, this is the first study to report high HBV prevalence rates in resident ethnic Chinese in Central America and the presence of genotypes B2 and C1 in this region.

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The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

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ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.