151 resultados para Bayes credible intervals
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the influence of the type of child-care on the occurrence of acute diarrhea with special emphasis on the effect of children grouping during care. METHODS: From October 1998 to January 1999 292 children, aged 24 to 36 months, recruited using a previously assembled cohort of newborns, were evaluated. Information on the type of care and occurrence of diarrhea in the previous year was obtained from parents by telephone interview. The X² and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare proportions and quantitative variables, respectively. The risk of diarrhea was estimated through the calculation of incident odds ratios (OR) and their respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), crude and adjusted by unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Using as reference category children cared individually at home, the adjusted ORs for diarrhea occurrence were 3.18, 95% CI [1.49, 6.77] for children cared in group at home, 2.28, 95% CI [0.92, 5.67] for children cared in group in day-care homes and 2.54, 95% CI [1.21, 5.33] for children cared in day-care centers. Children that changed from any other type of child-care setting to child-care centers in the year preceding the study showed a risk even higher (OR 7.65, 95% CI [3.25, 18.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Group care increases the risk of acute diarrhea whatsoever the specific setting.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of individual, household and healthcare system factors on poor children's use of vaccination after the reform of the Colombian health system. METHODS: A household survey was carried out in a random sample of insured poor population in Bogota, in 1999. The conceptual and analytical framework was based on the Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization. It considers two units of analysis for studying vaccination use and its determinants: the insured poor population, including the children and their families characteristics; and the health care system. Statistical analysis were carried out by chi-square test with 95% confidence intervals, multivariate regression models and Cronbach's alpha coefficient. RESULTS: The logistic regression analysis showed that vaccination use was related not only to population characteristics such as family size (OR=4.3), living area (OR=1.7), child's age (OR=0.7) and head-of-household's years of schooling (OR=0.5), but also strongly related to health care system features, such as having a regular health provider (OR=6.0) and information on providers' schedules and requirements for obtaining care services (OR=2.1). CONCLUSIONS: The low vaccination use and the relevant relationships to health care delivery systems characteristics show that there are barriers in the healthcare system, which should be assessed and eliminated. Non-availability of regular healthcare and deficient information to the population are factors that can limit service utilization.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess whether reported morbidity and complaints of lack of time and sleep are associated with the burden of professional work and housework among nurses. METHODS: A cross-sectional exploratory study was carried out among female nurses and nurse assistants (N=206) of a public hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data were collected by means of a questionnaire. The prevalence ratio and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. RESULTS: Mean duration of professional work and housework time was 40.4 and 31.6 hours/week, respectively. Long professional working time (over 44 hours/week) were associated with mild emotional disorders (PR=1.37; 95% CI: 1.05-1.80), complaints of lack of time for resting/leisure (PR=1.61; 95% CI: 1.31-1.97), housework (PR=1.48; 95% CI: 1.12-1.97), and childcare (PR=1.99; 95% CI: 1.51-2.63). Long housework time (over 28 hours/week) was associated with lower prevalence of lack of time for childcare (PR=0.62; 95% CI: 0.46-0.84). High housework load was associated with lack of personal time and complaints of varicose veins (PR=1.31; 95% CI: 1.14-1.50 and PR=1.31; 95% CI: 1.08-1.58, respectively). Complaints of varicose veins were also frequent among female nurses with a total work load above 84 hours (PR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.61), though this group has shown a lower prevalence of arterial hypertension and recurrent headaches (PR=0.35; 95% CI: 0.15-0.83 and PR=0.53; 95% CI: 0.32-0.89, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that both professional and home environments are relevant in the evaluation of work overload on nurses' health and their family and social life. It is stressed the need for instruments for analyzing total workload among female populations.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess HIV testing rate and determine risk factors for not have been tested during pregnancy. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil, from December 2000 to February 2001. Socioeconomic, maternal and healthcare variables were obtained by means of a standardized questionnaire. Crude and adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were obtained in logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 1,642 mothers were interviewed. Of them, 94.3% reported being offered HIV testing before or during pregnancy or during labor; 89 mothers (5.4%) were not tested or did not know if they were tested. Attending fewer than six prenatal visits, being single and younger than 18 years old were relevant barriers preventing HIV testing. There was found a relationship between maternal schooling and the category of prenatal care provider. Having low 22.20 (12.43-39.67) or high 3.38 (1.86-7.68). schooling and being cared in the private sector strongly reduced the likelihood of being HIV tested. CONCLUSIONS: The Brazilian Health Ministry's recommendation for universal counseling and HIV testing has been successfully implemented in the public sector. In order to improve HIV testing coverage, new strategies need to target women cared in the private sector especially those of low schooling.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the rubella suspect case definition among patients with rash diseases seen at primary care units. METHODS: From January 1994 to December 2002, patients with acute rash, with or without fever, were seen at two large primary health care units and at a public general hospital in the municipality of Niterói, metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data from clinical and serologic assessment were used to estimate the positive predictive values of the definition of rubella suspect case from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and other combination of signs/symptoms taking serologic status as the reference. Serum samples were tested for anti-rubella virus IgM using commercially available enzyme immunoassays. Positive predictive values and respective 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1,186 patients with an illness characterized by variable combinations of rash with fever, arthropathy and lymphadenopathy were studied. Patients with rash, regardless of other signs and symptoms, had 8.8% likelihood of being IgM-positive for rubella. The Brazilian suspect case definition (fever and lymphadenopathy in addition to rash) had low predictive value (13.5%). This case definition would correctly identify 42.3% of the IgM-positive cases, and misclassify 26.1% of the IgM-negative cases. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the recommendation to investigate and collect clinical specimens for laboratory diagnosis of all cases of rash, for surveillance purposes. Although this strategy may increase costs, the benefits of interrupting the circulation of rubella virus and preventing the occurrence of congenital rubella syndrome should pay off.
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of alcohol abuse/dependence and identify associated factors among demographic, family, socioeconomic and mental health variables. METHODS: A household survey was carried out in the urban area of Campinas, southeastern Brazil, in 2003. A total of 515 subjects, aged 14 years or more were randomly selected using a stratified cluster sample. The Self-Report Questionnaire and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test were used in the interview. Prevalences were calculated, and univariate and multivariate logistic analyses performed by estimating odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of alcohol abuse/dependence was 13.1% (95% CI: 8.4;19.9) in men and 4.1% (95% CI: 1.9;8.6) in women. In the final multiple logistic regression model, alcohol abuse/dependence was significantly associated with age, income, schooling, religion and illicit drug use. The adjusted odds ratios were significantly higher in following variables: income between 2,501 and 10,000 dollars (OR=10.29); income above 10,000 dollars (OR=10.20); less than 12 years of schooling (OR=13.42); no religion (OR=9.16) or religion other than Evangelical (OR=4.77); and illicit drug use during lifetime (OR=4.47). Alcohol abuse and dependence patterns were different according to age group. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significantly high prevalence of alcohol abuse/dependence in this population. The knowledge of factors associated with alcohol abuse, and differences in consumption patterns should be taken into account in the development of harm reduction strategies.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess risk factors for retreatment of leprosy patients. METHODS: A case-control study with patients from two reference care units in Recife, northeastern Brazil, in 2003. The case group included retreated patients (N=155) and the control group comprised those patients who were not retreated (N=155) matched by year of diagnosis and health care unit. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to test the associations and odds ratios and related 95% confidence intervals were estimated. RESULTS: The following factors were found to be significantly associated (p<0.05) with retreatment: occurrence of adverse immunological reactions after treatment completion (OR=2.3; 95% CI=1.18;4.83), final bacterial index > 1 (OR=6.43; 95% CI=1.67;24.74), therapeutic regimen consisting of sulfone monotherapy (OR=10; 95% CI=0.01;0.78) and reports of household contacts (OR=2.2; 95% CI=0.24;0.85). CONCLUSIONS: The study findings reinforce that the use of dapsone monotherapy should be discontinued, and highlight the need for epidemiological monitoring of specific groups of leprosy patients after treatment completion through periodical clinical and laboratory evaluation. Further studies to explore the association between final bacterial index and retreatment are strongly recommended.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between dietary patterns and oral cancer. METHODS: The study, part of a Latin American multicenter hospital-based case-control study, was conducted in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between November 1998 and March 2002 and included 366 incident cases of oral cancer and 469 controls, frequency-matched with cases by sex and age. Dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. The risk associated with the intake of food groups defined a posteriori, through factor analysis (called factors), was assessed. The first factor, labeled "prudent," was characterized by the intake of vegetables, fruit, cheese, and poultry. The second factor, "traditional," consisted of the intake of rice, pasta, pulses, and meat. The third factor, "snacks," was characterized as the intake of bread, butter, salami, cheese, cakes, and desserts. The fourth, "monotonous," was inversely associated with the intake of fruit, vegetables and most other food items. Factor scores for each component retained were calculated for cases and controls. After categorization of factor scores into tertiles according to the distribution of controls, odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: "Traditional" factor showed an inverse association with cancer (OR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.32; 0.81, p-value for trend 0.14), whereas "monotonous" was positively associated with the outcome (OR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.78; 2.85, p-value for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study data suggest that the traditional Brazilian diet, consisting of rice and beans plus moderate amounts of meat, may confer protection against oral cancer, independently of any other risk factors such as alcohol intake and smoking.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between oral health and hygiene practices and oral cancer. METHODS: Hospital-based case-control study in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 1998 to 2002. A total 309 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the mouth and the pharynx and 468 controls matched by sex and age were included in the study. Cases were recruited in seven reference hospitals and controls were selected in five out of the seven participating hospitals. Detailed information on smoking, alcohol consumption, schooling, oral health status and hygiene practices were obtained through interviews. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), adjusted by sex, age, schooling, smoking, alcohol consumption as well as the variables oral health status and hygiene practices were estimated using unconditional logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: The use of complete dental prosthesis was not associated with oral cancer but regular gum bleeding showed a strong association (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.2-7.9). Those who never attended a dental visit were more likely to have oral cancer (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.3-4.8). Daily mouthwash use showed a stronger association to pharynx (OR 4.7; 95% CI 1.8-12.5) than mouth cancer (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.6-6.3). CONCLUSIONS: Gum bleeding, no dental care, and daily mouthwash use were factors associated with oral cancer regardless of tobacco and alcohol consumption.
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of missed opportunities for congenital syphilis and HIV prevention in pregnant women who had access to prenatal care and to assess factors associated to non-testing of these infections. METHODS: Cross-sectional study comprising a randomly selected sample of 2,145 puerperal women who were admitted in maternity hospitals for delivery or curettage and had attended at least one prenatal care visit, in Brazil between 1999 and 2000. No syphilis and/or anti-HIV testing during pregnancy was a marker for missed prevention opportunity. Women who were not tested for either or both were compared to those who had at least one syphilis and one anti-HIV testing performed during pregnancy (reference category). The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity was estimated for each category with 95% confidence intervals. Factors independently associated with missed prevention opportunity were assessed through multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity for syphilis or anti-HIV was 41.2% and 56.0%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that race/skin color (non-white), schooling (<8 years), marital status (single), income (<3 monthly minimum wages), having sex during pregnancy, history of syphilis prior to the current pregnancy, number of prenatal care visits (<6), and last prenatal visit before the third trimester of gestation were associated with an increased risk of missed prevention opportunity. A negative association with missed prevention opportunity was found between marital status (single), prenatal care site (hospital) and first prenatal visit in the third trimester of gestation. CONCLUSIONS: High rates of non-tested women indicate failures in preventive and control actions for HIV infection and congenital syphilis. Pregnant women have been discontinuing prenatal care at an early stage and are failing to undergo prenatal screening for HIV and syphilis.
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OBJETIVO: Desenvolver um modelo estatístico baseado em métodos Bayesianos para estimar o risco de infecção tuberculosa em estudos com perdas de seguimento, comparando-o com um modelo clássico determinístico. MÉTODOS: O modelo estocástico proposto é baseado em um algoritmo de amostradores de Gibbs, utilizando as informações de perdas de seguimento ao final de um estudo longitudinal. Para simular o número desconhecido de indivíduos reatores ao final do estudo e perdas de seguimento, mas não reatores no tempo inicial, uma variável latente foi introduzida no novo modelo. Apresenta-se um exercício de aplicação de ambos os modelos para comparação das estimativas geradas. RESULTADOS: As estimativas pontuais fornecidas por ambos os modelos são próximas, mas o modelo Bayesiano apresentou a vantagem de trazer os intervalos de credibilidade como medidas da variabilidade amostral dos parâmetros estimados. CONCLUSÕES: O modelo Bayesiano pode ser útil em estudos longitudinais com baixa adesão ao seguimento.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the rate of cesarean section and differences in risk factors by category of health service, either public or private. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out including all pregnant women in labor admitted to hospitals in the city of Rio Grande, Southern Brazil, between January 1 and December 31, 2007. A pre-coded and pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect on social, demographic, obstetric and newborn care information. Two regression models were constructed: one for public users and the other one for private ones. Poisson regression was used in each model in the multivariate analysis. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each adjusted factor. RESULTS: The rate of cesarean section was 43% and 86% among public and private users. Sociodemographic factors and twin births have a more significant impact among public users as well as number of pregnancies (25% vs. 13% reduction in public and private users, respectively) and previous cesarean section (86% vs. 24% increase in public and private users, respectively). Prenatal care visits and hospital admissions affected the outcome only in women users of public services. CONCLUSIONS: Cesarean section rates were high in both groups studied, but it was twice as high among women cared in the private sector. Associated factors differ in magnitude by category of service used.
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OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between growth patterns in early childhood and the onset of menarche before age 12. METHODS: The study included 2,083 women from a birth cohort study conducted in the city of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, starting in 1982. Anthropometric, behavioral, and pregnancy-related variables were collected through home interviews. Statistical analyses were performed using Pearson's chi-square and chi-square test for linear trends. A multivariable analysis was carried out using Poisson regression based on a hierarchical model. RESULTS: Mean age of menarche was 12.4 years old and the prevalence of menarche before age 12 was 24.3%. Higher weight-for-age, height-for-age, and weight-for-height z-scores at 19.4 and 43.1 months of age were associated with linear tendencies of increased prevalence and relative risks of the onset of menarche before age 12. Girls who experienced rapid growth in weight-for-age z-score from birth to 19.4 months of age and in weight-for-age or height-for-age z-scores from 19.4 to 43.1 months of age also showed higher risk of menarche before age 12. Higher risk was seen when rapid growth in weight-for-age z-score was seen during these age intervals and the highest risk was found among those in the first tertile of Williams' curve at birth. Rapid growth in weight-for-height z-score was not associated with menarche before age 12. CONCLUSIONS: Menarche is affected by nutritional status and growth patterns during early childhood. Preventing overweight and obesity during early childhood and keeping a "normal" growth pattern seem crucial for the prevention of health conditions during adulthood.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the strengths and limitations of the Family Health Strategy from the perspective of health care professionals and the community. METHODS: Between June-August 2009, in the city of Vespasiano, Minas Gerais State, Southeastern Brazil, a questionnaire was used to evaluate the Family Health Strategy (ESF) with 77 healthcare professionals and 293 caregivers of children under five. Health care professional training, community access to health care, communication with patients and delivery of health education and pediatric care were the main points of interest in the evaluation. Logistic regression analysis was used to obtain odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals as well as to assess the statistical significance of the variables studied. RESULTS: The majority of health care professionals reported their program training was insufficient in quantity, content and method of delivery. Caregivers and professionals identified similar weaknesses (services not accessible to the community, lack of healthcare professionals, poor training for professionals) and strengths (community health worker-patient communications, provision of educational information, and pediatric care). Recommendations for improvement included: more doctors and specialists, more and better training, and scheduling improvements. Caregiver satisfaction with the ESF was found to be related to perceived benefits such as community health agent household visits (OR 5.8, 95%CI 2.8;12.1), good professional-patient relationships (OR 4.8, 95%CI 2.5;9.3), and family-focused health (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.6;10.2); and perceived problems such as lack of personnel (OR 0.3, 95%CI 0.2;0.6), difficulty with access (OR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1;0.4), and poor quality of care (OR 0.3, 95%CI 0.1;0.6). Overall, 62% of caregivers reported being generally satisfied with the ESF services. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the limitations and strengths of the Family Health Strategy from the healthcare professional and caregiver perspective may serve to advance primary community healthcare in Brazil.
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The National Cancer Institute (NCI) method allows the distributions of usual intake of nutrients and foods to be estimated. This method can be used in complex surveys. However, the user must perform additional calculations, such as balanced repeated replication (BRR), in order to obtain standard errors and confidence intervals for the percentiles and mean from the distribution of usual intake. The objective is to highlight adaptations of the NCI method using data from the National Dietary Survey. The application of the NCI method was exemplified analyzing the total energy (kcal) and fruit (g) intake, comparing estimations of mean and standard deviation that were based on the complex design of the Brazilian survey with those assuming simple random sample. Although means point estimates were similar, estimates of standard error using the complex design increased by up to 60% compared to simple random sample. Thus, for valid estimates of food and energy intake for the population, all of the sampling characteristics of the surveys should be taken into account because when these characteristics are neglected, statistical analysis may produce underestimated standard errors that would compromise the results and the conclusions of the survey.