317 resultados para dengue modeling


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Abstract:The objective of this work was to develop and validate a prognosis system for volume yield and basal area of intensively managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands, using stand and diameter class models compatible in basal area estimates. The data used in the study were obtained from plantations located in northern Uruguay. For model validation without data loss, a three-phase validation scheme was applied: first, the equations were fitted without the validation database; then, model validation was carried out; and, finally, the database was regrouped to recalibrate the parameter values. After the validation and final parameterization of the models, a simulation of the first commercial thinning was carried out. The developed prognosis system was precise and accurate in estimating basal area production per hectare or per diameter classes. There was compatibility in basal area estimates between diameter class and whole stand models, with a mean difference of -0.01 m2ha-1. The validation scheme applied is logic and consistent, since information on the accuracy and precision of the models is obtained without the loss of any information in the estimation of the models' parameters.

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OBJETIVO: Apresentar os achados ultra-sonográficos abdominais em pacientes com dengue e compará-los aos descritos na literatura. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Foram realizados exames ultra-sonográficos abdominais de 38 pacientes, 25 do sexo feminino e 13 do sexo masculino, com idade média de 35 anos, com diagnóstico de dengue sorologicamente confirmado. Os achados foram comparados com os descritos na literatura. RESULTADOS: Os achados ultra-sonográficos mais relevantes foram espessamento difuso da parede da vesícula biliar em 18 casos (47,4%), líquido livre na cavidade abdominal e/ou pélvica em 12 (31,6%), esplenomegalia em 11 (28,9%), hepatomegalia em 10 (26,3%) e líquido pericolecístico em 10 (26,3%). Vinte e seis por cento dos pacientes apresentaram exames ultra-sonográficos normais. CONCLUSÃO: Os achados ultra-sonográficos abdominais são uma ferramenta adicional útil na confirmação de casos suspeitos de dengue hemorrágica e na detecção precoce da gravidade e da progressão da doença, sendo de extrema importância para o radiologista o conhecimento destes possíveis achados.

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O dengue é doença endêmica em regiões tropicais e subtropicais. Quando sintomática, classifica-se em febre do dengue e febre hemorrágica do dengue, com tendência a síndrome do choque do dengue. A febre hemorrágica do dengue é marcada por manifestações hemorrágicas, trombocitopenia e aumento da permeabilidade capilar. A síndrome do choque do dengue apresenta os achados de febre hemorrágica do dengue com hipotensão. Muitos achados ultrassonográficos têm sido descritos, incluindo derrame pleural, ascite, espessamento da parede da vesícula biliar e derrame pericárdico. O objetivo desta revisão da literatura é descrever os achados ultrassonográficos e demonstrar o papel da ultrassonografia em crianças com suspeita de febre hemorrágica do dengue

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The bioassay-guided fractionation of the hexane extract obtained from the medicinal plant Myroxylon balsamum (red oil) was conducted in preparative thin layer chromatography on silica gel. The obtained fractions and some terpenoids and phenylpropanoids were assayed as larvicidal on third instar Aedes aegypti larvae, NPPN colony. The results indicate that the sesquiterpene nerolidol was the active constituent in the extract and that the sesquiterpenes were more active than the monoterpenes and phenylpropanoids utilized in this study. Lipophilicity seems to be an important property for the activity since the compounds with hydroxyl, carbonyl and methoxyl groups were less active. The results confirm also that essential oils can be a good tool for the control of dengue.

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Simulations have been carried out on the bromate - oxalic acid - Ce(IV) - acetone oscillating reaction, under flow conditions, using Field and Boyd's model (J. Phys. Chem. 1985, 89, 3707). Many different complex dynamic behaviors were found, including simple periodic oscillations, complex periodic oscillations, quasiperiodicity and chaos. Some of these complex oscillations can be understood as belonging to a Farey sequence. The many different behaviors were systematized in a phase diagram which shows that some regions of complex patterns were nested with one inside the other. The existence of almost all known dynamic behavior for this system allows the suggestion that it can be used as a model for some very complex phenomena that occur in biological systems.

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The caffeine solubility in supercritical CO2 was studied by assessing the effects of pressure and temperature on the extraction of green coffee oil (GCO). The Peng-Robinson¹ equation of state was used to correlate the solubility of caffeine with a thermodynamic model and two mixing rules were evaluated: the classical mixing rule of van der Waals with two adjustable parameters (PR-VDW) and a density dependent one, proposed by Mohamed and Holder² with two (PR-MH, two parameters adjusted to the attractive term) and three (PR-MH3 two parameters adjusted to the attractive and one to the repulsive term) adjustable parameters. The best results were obtained with the mixing rule of Mohamed and Holder² with three parameters.

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OH LIF-thermometry was applied to premixed ethanol flames at atmospheric pressure in a burner for three flame conditions. Flame temperatures were simulated from energy equation with PREMIX code of CHEMKIN software package for comparison. A kinetic modeling based on a model validated through chemiluminescence measurements and on a set of reactions for nitrogen chemistry was evaluated. Marinov's mechanism was also tested. Sensitivity analysis was performed for fuel-rich flame condition with Φ = 1.34. Simulated temperatures from both reaction mechanisms evaluated were higher than experimental values. However, the proposed kinetic modeling resulted in temperature profiles qualitatively very close to the experimental.

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In the search for new larvicides from plants, we have investigated the potential activity of the rotenoids deguelin (1), 12a-hydroxy-α-toxicarol (2) and tephrosin (3), isolated from the bioactive ethanol extract of roots of Tephrosia toxicaria Pers., against Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue. The absolute configuration of these compounds was determined by circular dichroism (CD) spectra. The LC50 values of the compounds evaluated justify the potential of T. toxicaria as a new natural larvicide.

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QSAR modeling is a novel computer program developed to generate and validate QSAR or QSPR (quantitative structure- activity or property relationships) models. With QSAR modeling, users can build partial least squares (PLS) regression models, perform variable selection with the ordered predictors selection (OPS) algorithm, and validate models by using y-randomization and leave-N-out cross validation. An additional new feature is outlier detection carried out by simultaneous comparison of sample leverage with the respective Studentized residuals. The program was developed using Java version 6, and runs on any operating system that supports Java Runtime Environment version 6. The use of the program is illustrated. This program is available for download at lqta.iqm.unicamp.br.

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This work presents the use of potentiometric measurements for kinetic studies of biosorption of Cd2+ ions from aqueous solutions on Eichhornia crassipes roots. The open circuit potential of the Cd/Cd2+ electrode of the first kind was measured during the bioadsorption process. The amount of Cd2+ ions accumulated was determined in real time. The data were fit to different models, with the pseudo-second-order model proving to be the best in describing the data. The advantages and limitations of the methodology proposed relative to the traditional method are discussed.

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This study was carried to evaluate the efficiency of the Bitterlich method in growth and yield modeling of the even-aged Eucalyptus stands. 25 plots were setup in Eucalyptus grandis cropped under a high bole system in the Central Western Region of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The sampling points were setup in the center of each plot. The data of four annual mesurements were colleted and used to adjust the three model types using the age, the site index and the basal area as independent variables. The growths models were fitted for volume and mass of trees. The efficiency of the Bitterlich method was confirmed for generating the data for growth and yield modeling.

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This work evaluated eight hypsometric models to represent tree height-diameter relationship, using data obtained from the scaling of 118 trees and 25 inventory plots. Residue graphic analysis and percent deviation mean criteria, qui-square test precision, residual standard error between real and estimated heights and the graybill f test were adopted. The identity of the hypsometric models was also verified by applying the F(Ho) test on the plot data grouped to the scaling data. It was concluded that better accuracy can be obtained by using the model prodan, with h and d1,3 data measured in 10 trees by plots grouped into these scaling data measurements of even-aged forest stands.

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ABSTRACTThis study presents a contribution to the modeling of a computer application employing a method of serviceability performance for unpaved roads, aiming the management of maintenance/restoration activities of the primary surface layer. The proposed methodology consisted of field inspections during dry (April to September) and rainy (October to March) periods, during which objective evaluations were performed to survey of defects and their densities and degrees of severity. To aid the functional classification of analyzed road sections and the determination of the defect with major influence on the serviceability of these roads, the method of serviceability performance proposed by Silva (2009)was implemented in the Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) language in Microsoft Excel software. With the use of the computer application proposed it was possible to identify among the defects analyzed in field, through the index of serviceability of the sampling unit per defect type (ISUdef), which one had the greatest influence on determining the relative serviceability index per road section (IST). The results allow us to conclude that the computer application Road achieved satisfactory results, since the objective evaluation criteria applied to road sections denotes consistency regarding their serviceability.

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ABSTRACT This study aimed to verify the differences in radiation intensity as a function of distinct relief exposure surfaces and to quantify these effects on the leaf area index (LAI) and other variables expressing eucalyptus forest productivity for simulations in a process-based growth model. The study was carried out at two contrasting edaphoclimatic locations in the Rio Doce basin in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two stands with 32-year-old plantations were used, allocating fixed plots in locations with northern and southern exposure surfaces. The meteorological data were obtained from two automated weather stations located near the study sites. Solar radiation was corrected for terrain inclination and exposure surfaces, as it is measured based on the plane, perpendicularly to the vertical location. The LAI values collected in the field were used. For the comparative simulations in productivity variation, the mechanistic 3PG model was used, considering the relief exposure surfaces. It was verified that during most of the year, the southern surfaces showed lower availability of incident solar radiation, resulting in up to 66% losses, compared to the same surface considered plane, probably related to its geographical location and higher declivity. Higher values were obtained for the plantings located on the northern surface for the variables LAI, volume and mean annual wood increase, with this tendency being repeated in the 3PG model simulations.

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Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.