199 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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Sementes recalcitrantes são intolerantes à dessecação e a baixas temperaturas, que são as principais formas de conservação de sementes e, portanto, são de difícil armazenamento. Inga vera subsp. affinis produz sementes denominadas recalcitrantes, uma vez que não toleram redução do teor de água para valores inferiores a 35%. Neste trabalho é demonstrada a tolerância desses embriões a temperatura de -2 ºC. Embriões de I. vera de diferentes estádios de maturação foram armazenados por até 45 dias nas temperaturas de 8 ºC a -18 ºC, com ou sem secagens prévias até -4,0 e -6,0 MPa. Os resultados permitiram observar que, embora nenhum tratamento tenha proporcionado resistância à temperatura de -18 ºC, a secagem dos embriões maduros a -4 MPa proporcionou maior tolerância à redução de temperatura até níveis de congelamento da água (-2 ºC).

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Seasonal savannas are characterized by an intense drought that influences their functioning. Hyperseasonal savannas experience additionally a waterlogging during the rainy season. In South America, the largest savanna environment is the Brazilian cerrado. To assess whether a particular dispersal mode or fruiting period is associated to the waterlogging, we examined dispersal and phenological groups in hyperseasonal and seasonal cerrado plant species. We compared the proportion of species and individuals in these groups with G-tests for independence in contingency tables. We did not find differences in the proportion of species; however, based on the proportion of individuals, the main dispersal strategy was anemochory in the hyperseasonal cerrado and zoochory in the seasonal cerrado. Phenological strategies of fruiting in safe periods of the year were differently selected in both cerrados. In the hyperseasonal cerrado, most individuals fruited in non-waterlogged periods, whereas in the seasonal cerrado, most individuals fruited in wetter periods. Thus, waterlogging may drive important modifications in the efficiency of the dispersal and phenological strategies of hyperseasonal savannas plants.

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We examined the relationships between environmental variations in lotic ecosystems with the seasonal dynamics of macroalgae communities at different spatial scales: drainage basin of two rivers (Rio das Pedras and Rio Marrecas), shading (open and shaded stream segments), mesohabitat (riffles and pools), and microhabitats. Data collections were made on a monthly basis between January and December/2007. A total of 16 taxa were encountered (13 species and 3 vegetative groups). All of the biotic parameters (richness, abundance, diversity, equitability, and dominance) were found to be highly variable at all of the spatial scales evaluated. On the other hand, abiotic variables demonstrated differences only at mesohabitat (in terms of current velocity) and shaded habitat (in terms of irradiance) scales. The seasonality of the macroalgae community structure was strongly influenced by microhabitat variables (current velocity, substrate H', and irradiance), demonstrating their importance over time and at different scales. Regional variables (temperature, oxygen saturation, specific conductance, pH, and turbidity) were found to have little influence on the temporal dynamics of the macroalgae communities evaluated.

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The neuroendocrine system regulates several organic functions such as reproduction, metabolism and adaptation to the environment. This system shows seasonal changes linked to the environment. The experimental model used in the present study was Lagostomus maximus maximus (viscacha). The reproduction of males of this species is photoperiod dependent. Twenty-four adult male viscachas were captured in their habitat at different times during one year. The adrenal glands were processed for light microscopy. Serial cuts were stained with hematoxylin-eosin for the morphometric study, and 100 nuclei of each zone of the adrenal cortex were counted per animal. Data were analyzed statistically by ANOVA and the Tukey test. The cells of the glomerulosa zone are arranged in a tube-shaped structure. The fasciculata zone has large cells with central nuclei and clearly visible nucleoli and with a vacuolar cytoplasm. In the reticularis zone there are two of types of cells, one with a nucleus of fine chromatin and a clearly visible nucleolus and the other with nuclear pycnosis. Morphometric analysis showed maximum nuclear volumes during the February-March period with values of 133 ± 7.3 µm3 for the glomerulosa, 286.4 ± 14.72 µm3 for the fasciculata, and 126.3 ± 9.49 µm3 for the reticularis. Minimum nuclear volumes were observed in August with values of 88.24 ± 9.9 µm3 for the glomerulosa, 163.7 ± 7.78 µm3 for the fasciculata and 64.58 ± 4.53 µm3 for the reticularis. The short winter photoperiod to which viscacha is subjected could inhibit the adrenal cortex through a melatonin increase which reduces the nuclear volume as well as the cellular activity.

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Early identification of patients who need hospitalization or patients who should be discharged would be helpful for the management of acute asthma in the emergency room. The objective of the present study was to examine the clinical and pulmonary functional measures used during the first hour of assessment of acute asthma in the emergency room in order to predict the outcome. We evaluated 88 patients. The inclusion criteria were age between 12 and 55 years, forced expiratory volume in the first second below 50% of predicted value, and no history of chronic disease or pregnancy. After baseline evaluation, all patients were treated with 2.5 mg albuterol delivered by nebulization every 20 min in the first hour and 60 mg of intravenous methylprednisolone. Patients were reevaluated after 60 min of treatment. Sixty-five patients (73.9%) were successfully treated and discharged from the emergency room (good responders), and 23 (26.1%) were hospitalized or were treated and discharged with relapse within 10 days (poor responders). A predictive index was developed: peak expiratory flow rates after 1 h <=0% of predicted values and accessory muscle use after 1 h. The index ranged from 0 to 2. An index of 1 or higher presented a sensitivity of 74.0, a specificity of 69.0, a positive predictive value of 46.0, and a negative predictive value of 88.0. It was possible to predict outcome in the first hour of management of acute asthma in the emergency room when the index score was 0 or 2.

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Exposure to stress induces a cluster of physiological and behavioral changes in an effort to maintain the homeostasis of the organism. Long-term exposure to stress, however, has detrimental effects on several cell functions such as the impairment of antioxidant defenses leading to oxidative damage. Oxidative stress is a central feature of many diseases. The lungs are particularly susceptible to lesions by free radicals and pulmonary antioxidant defenses are extensively distributed and include both enzymatic and non-enzymatic systems. The aim of the present study was to determine lipid peroxidation and total radical-trapping potential (TRAP) changes in lungs of rats submitted to different models of chronic stress. Adult male Wistar rats weighing 180-230 g were submitted to different stressors (variable stress, N = 7) or repeated restraint stress for 15 (N = 10) or 40 days (N = 6) and compared to control groups (N = 10 each). Lipid peroxidation levels were assessed by thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), and TRAP was measured by the decrease in luminescence using the 2-2'-azo-bis(2-amidinopropane)-luminol system. Chronic variable stress induced a 51% increase in oxidative stress in lungs (control group: 0.037 ± 0.002; variable stress: 0.056 ± 0.007, P < 0.01). No difference in TBARS was observed after chronic restraint stress, but a significant 57% increase in TRAP was presented by the group repeatedly restrained for 15 days (control group: 2.48 ± 0.42; stressed: 3.65 ± 0.16, P < 0.05). We conclude that different stressors induce different effects on the oxidative status of the organism.

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We describe the impact of subtype differences on the seroreactivity of linear antigenic epitopes in envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 isolates from different geographical locations. By computer analysis, we predicted potential antigenic sites of envelope glycoprotein (gp120 and gp4l) of this virus. For this purpose, after fetching sequences of proteins of interest from data banks, values of hydrophilicity, flexibility, accessibility, inverted hydrophobicity, and secondary structure were considered. We identified several potential antigenic epitopes in a B subtype strain of envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 (IIIB). Solid- phase peptide synthesis methods of Merrifield and Fmoc chemistry were used for synthesizing peptides. These synthetic peptides corresponded mainly to the C2, V3 and CD4 binding sites of gp120 and some parts of the ectodomain of gp41. The reactivity of these peptides was tested by ELISA against different HIV-1-positive sera from different locations in India. For two of these predicted epitopes, the corresponding Indian consensus sequences (LAIERYLKQQLLGWG and DIIGDIRQAHCNISEDKWNET) (subtype C) were also synthesized and their reactivity was tested by ELISA. These peptides also distinguished HIV-1-positive sera of Indians with C subtype infections from sera from HIV-negative subjects.

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The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

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In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

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Malignancy of pulmonary large cell carcinomas (LCC) increases from classic LCC through LCC with neuroendocrine morphology (LCCNM) to large cell neuroendocrine carcinomas (LCNEC). However, the histological classification has sometimes proved to be difficult. Because the malignancy of LCC is highly dependent on proteins with functions in the cell cycle, DNA repair, and apoptosis, p53 has been targeted as a potentially useful biological marker. p53 mutations in lung cancers have been shown to result in expression and protein expression also occurs in the absence of mutations. To validate the importance of both p53 protein expression (by immunostaining) and p53 gene mutations in lung LCC (by PCR-single strand conformational polymorphism analysis of exons 5, 6, 7, and 8) and to study their relationships with clinical factors and sub-classification we investigated the correlation of p53 abnormalities in 15 patients with LCC (5 classic LCC, 5 LCNEC, and 5 LCCNM) who had undergone resection with curative intent. Of these patients, 5/15 expressed p53 and none had mutant p53 sequences. There was a negative survival correlation with positive p53 immunostaining (P = 0.05). After adjustment for stage, age, gender, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and histological subtypes by multivariate analysis, p53 expression had an independent impact on survival. The present study indicates that p53 assessment may provide an objective marker for the prognosis of LCC irrespective of morphological variants and suggests that p53 expression is important for outcome prediction in patients with the early stages of LCC. The results reported here should be considered to be initial results because tumors from only 15 patients were studied: 5 each from LCC, LCNEC and LCCNM. This was due to the rarity of these specific diseases.

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The objective of this study was to determine the liver oxidative stress status of grey mullets living in heavy-metal-rich polluted Ennore estuary compared with unpolluted Kovalam estuary. Fish were collected from both estuaries during the monsoon and summer seasons from October 2004 to September 2006. Fish liver homogenate (N = 20 per group) was prepared for evaluating oxidative stress parameters. Fish living in the polluted estuary had significantly higher lipid oxidation products, conjugated dienes (0.346 ± 0.017 vs 0.141 ± 0.012 DA233/mg protein), lipid hydroperoxides (0.752 ± 0.032 vs 0.443 ± 0.03 nmol/mg protein), and lipid peroxides (3.447 ± 0.14vs 1.456 ± 0.096 nmol MDA/mg protein) than those of the unpolluted estuary during the summer. In contrast, significantly lower levels of superoxide dismutase (20.39 ± 1.14 vs 53.63 ± 1.48 units/mg protein) and catalase (116 ± 6.87vs 153 ± 8.92 units/mg protein) were detected in the liver of fish from the polluted estuary (Ennore) compared to fish from the unpolluted estuary (Kovalam) during the summer. Variations in most of the oxidative stress parameters were observed between the summer and monsoon seasons, indicating the importance of seasonal variation for estuaries and their inhabitants.

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A 3-bp insertion/deletion polymorphism in intron 6 of GSTM3 (rs1799735, GSTM3*A/*B) affects the activity of the phase 2 xenobiotic metabolizing enzyme GSTM3 and has been associated with increased cancer risk. The GSTM3*B allele is rare or absent in Southeast Asians, occurs in 5-20% of Europeans but was detected in 80% of Bantu from South Africa. The wide genetic diversity among Africans led us to investigate whether the high frequency of GSTM3*B prevailed in other sub-Saharan African populations. In 168 healthy individuals from Angola, Mozambique and the São Tomé e Príncipe islands, the GSTM3*B allele was three times more frequent (0.74-0.78) than the GSTM3*A allele (0.22-0.26), with no significant differences in allele frequency across the three groups. We combined these data with previously published results to carry out a multidimensional scaling analysis, which provided a visualization of the worldwide population affinities based on the GSTM3 *A/*B polymorphism.

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The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

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This work describes a method to predict the solubility of essential oils in supercritical carbon dioxide. The method is based on the formulation proposed in 1979 by Asselineau, Bogdanic and Vidal. The Peng-Robinson and Soave-Redlich-Kwong cubic equations of state were used with the van der Waals mixing rules with two interaction parameters. Method validation was accomplished calculating orange essential oil solubility in pressurized carbon dioxide. The solubility of orange essential oil in carbon dioxide calculated at 308.15 K for pressures of 50 to 70 bar varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. For same the range of conditions, experimental solubility varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. Predicted values were not very sensitive to initial oil composition.

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Solid mixtures for refreshment are already totally integrated to the Brazilian consumers' daily routine, because of their quick preparation method, yield and reasonable price - quite lower if compared to 'ready-to-drink' products or products for prompt consumption, what makes them economically more accessible to low-income populations. Within such a context, the aim of this work was to evaluate the physicochemical and mineral composition, as well as the hygroscopic behavior of four different brands of solid mixture for mango refreshment. The BET, GAB, Oswim and Henderson mathematical models were built through the adjustment of experimental data to the isotherms of adsorption. Results from the physiochemical evaluation showed that the solid mixtures for refreshments are considerable sources of ascorbic acid and reductor sugar; and regarding mineral compounds, they are significant sources of calcium, sodium and potassium. It was also verified that the solid mixtures for refreshments of the four studied brands are considered highly hygroscopic.