Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Biodiversity of Collembola in urban soils and their use as bioindicators for pollution

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of pollutants on the abundance and diversity of Collembola in urban soils. The research was carried out in three parks (Cişmigiu, Izvor and Unirea) in downtown Bucharest, where the intense car traffic accounts for 70% of the local air pollution. One site in particular (Cişmigiu park) was highly contaminated with Pb, Cd, Zn and Cu at about ten times the background levels of Pb. Collembola were sampled in 2006 (July, September, November) using the transect method: 2,475 individuals from 34 species of Collembola were collected from 210 samples of soil and litter. Numerical densities differed significantly between the studied sites.The influence of air pollutants on the springtail fauna was visible at the species richness diversity and soil pollution levels. Species richness was lowest in the most contaminated site (Cismigiu, 11 species), which presented an increase in springtails abundances, though. Some species may become resistant to pollution and occur in high numbers of individuals in polluted sites, which makes them a good bioindicator of pollutants.

The effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and heavy metals on terrestrial annelids in urban soils

The effect of soil contamination by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and heavy metals on earthworms and enchytraeids was studied in urban parks, in Brno, Czech Republic. In spring and autumn 2007, annelids were collected and soil samples taken in lawns along transects, at three different distances (1, 5 and 30 m) from streets with heavy traffic. In both seasons, two parks with two transects each were sampled. Earthworms were collected using the electrical octet method. Enchytraeids were extracted by the wet funnel method from soil cores. All collected annelids were counted and identified. Basic chemical parameters and concentrations of 16 PAH, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn were analysed from soil from each sampling point. PAH concentrations were rather low, decreasing with the distance from the street in spring but not in autumn. Heavy metal concentrations did not decrease significantly with increasing distance. Annelid densities did not significantly differ between distances, although there was a trend of increase in the number of earthworms with increasing distance. There were no significant correlations between soil content of PAH or heavy metals and earthworm or enchytraeid densities. Earthworm density and biomass were negatively correlated with soil pH; and enchytraeid density was positively correlated with soil phosphorus.

Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR), with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

'Tommy Atkins' mango trees subjected to high density planting in subhumid tropical climate in northeastern Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of high density planting on 'Tommy Atkins' mango trees cultivated in subhumid warm tropical climate in northeastern Brazil. Treatments consisted of five spacial arrangements of plants (8x5 m, 7x4 m, 6x3 m, 5x2 m and 4x2 m), which resulted in the following plant densities: 250 (control), 357, 555, 1,000 and 1,250 plants per hectare. Plant vegetative and reproductive variables, besides fruit quality parameters, were evaluated at seven and eight years after transplantation to the field. In general, high density planting caused reduction in vegetative and reproductive variables of individual mango trees, but had little influence on fruit quality. Above 555 plants per hectare, a significant decrease was observed in mango tree growth. Furthermore, there were decreases in the percentage of flowering, fruit yield per plant and per area. However, planting density up to 357 plants per hectare, in spite of decreasing plant growth and fruit yield per tree, increases fruit yield per area in 30% in comparison to the control.

CO2-response function of radiation use efficiency in rice for climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.

Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.